u/FriendlyCandle7971

Hello Reddit MSTR

I’ve rarely seen such polarized opinions on a single stock as with MSTR.
On one side, people call it a scam, a Ponzi, or something that will go straight to zero in the next few years.
On the other, they see it as one of the most innovative pieces of financial engineering around … in plain: a way to get leveraged Bitcoin exposure without the risk of a margin call.

I’m curious where you land on this in practice:
What percentage of your total crypto-related exposure is in MSTR (vs. spot BTC or other BTC proxies)?

A lot of people I know are still heavily in BTC and only lightly in MSTR (or not at all). At the same time, a few friends have sold most or all of their BTC to go fully into MSTR.

How are you allocating, and what’s the reasoning behind the size of your MSTR position?

Thanks for sharing your thinking!

Ray

Hey MSTR investors and followers

In the last cycle MSTR was usually running ahead of Bitcoin. The premium was expanding hard and the stock was making its big moves or local tops before BTC even finished topping. A lot of people remember 2024 where MSTR was leading and then the mNAV compressed later while BTC was still grinding higher.

Now looking at the next big cycle most people talk about 2028 after the halving into 2029, do you think MSTR peaks ahead of BTC again?

Couple questions:
• Do you think the mNAV premium expands hard again like it did in 2024 or is that less likely now?
• If BTC tops somewhere in 2028-2029 do you see MSTR making its high earlier than Bitcoin itself?
• Or has all the preferreds and the bigger debt stack and constant issuance changed it so MSTR just lags or tracks BTC more this time?
• Anyone watching specific mNAV levels for MSTR vs BTC in the next run?

Curious what people who were around in 2024 think for 2028. Not really looking for exact price targets more if the “MSTR peaks first” pattern still holds or not.

Greetings
Ray

Hello Strategy Investors on Reddit

Been thinking about this a lot lately. Saw that data from On-Chain Mind where even after MSTR ran more than 70% off the lows (the $80 area), the mNAV was still only in like the 6th or 7th percentile of its whole history. Price recovered a ton but the multiple barely moved. That stuck with me.
I get why people are waiting for sub-100 again. Feels safer. But I’m starting to doubt it actually comes back. The company structure is different now with all the preferred stuff and how they raise capital. What if we just never see those prices again and then it starts grinding through 300, 400, 600 while a lot of us are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect dip that doesn’t show up?

My plan right now is still adding when it dips while this percentile stays low. Not trying to catch the exact bottom, just don’t want to be the guy who watched it run without having a decent position. My average is around 110 on a few thousand shares so I’m already in, but still open to adding more if we stay in this kind of range.

Curious what everyone else is doing though.
You still accumulating here or waiting for something lower?
Where do you actually stop buying? Price level, percentile, portfolio size, or something else?

You planning to sell some at certain levels or just ride it all the way through 2040?

And how are you thinking about the actual residual claim for common equity with all the preferreds and converts sitting in front of it?

Would rather hear real approaches than just “to the moon” or “it’s a scam.” What’s your thinking?

Greetings Ray

Hi there

July is typically a good month for Bitcoin and it recovered from 1-July low of 57k and is now eben above 66k.

Even MSTR does Well and went above 100 again.

However, I start getting concerned about STRC, which is still below 90!

Is this understandable to you? Normal in bearmarket?

Or something wrong with it?

Thanks for your thoughts!

Ray

Hey Colleagues

I’ve been following Michael Saylor and the company very closely for a while now and I’m genuinely very bullish on the long-term thesis. The “BitVac” strategy, the massive BTC treasury (currently ~844k BTC), the convertible bond machine, the aggressive accumulation … it all makes sense to me. I truly believe that if Bitcoin keeps doing what it’s done historically, MSTR should massively outperform BTC itself.
That said… I’m sitting here with dry powder and I’m hesitant as hell to pull the trigger on a few thousand shares.

My biggest fear is a total loss by 2030.

Here’s what keeps me up at night:
• It’s ultimately a single company … not an ETF, not a diversified play
• Saylor is brilliant, but he’s still human. One big strategic mistake, one bad capital raise, one regulatory curveball… and it could go south fast
• The company has almost no operating earnings outside of the Bitcoin bet. Everything hinges on the treasury performing

I’m totally fine with 60-80% drawdowns for a few years (we’ve seen those before). I can stomach volatility.
What I cannot accept is going to zero and losing 100% of the capital.

So I’m turning to you guys:
What are your strongest arguments that MSTR won’t go to zero even in a bad Bitcoin scenario? How do you think about downside protection? Balance sheet strength? The ability to keep raising capital? Saylor’s track record(wasn‘t there bad press in 2000s?)? Any historical parallels or worst-case math that actually calms you down?
I really want to go big on this, but I need some convincing answers to kill this total-loss anxiety first.
Appreciate any thoughtful replies, hoping you can take away my fears.

Many thanks
Ray

Hi Colleagues

I’m still trying to wrap my head around why MSTR peaked in November 2024 but then significantly trailed Bitcoin as it hit new all-time highs in October 2025.
Was this mainly because Saylor was issuing a ton of shares at the time (heavy dilution)? Or were there other big reasons the premium to NAV evaporated so dramatically?

Looking ahead to the next bull run in 2028/29 … does Saylor plan to dilute common shares as aggressively again once the MSTR NAV starts climbing? Or will the new STRC preferred-stock funding let them buy more BTC with far less dilution to common equity?
Also, isn’t there a real risk that too much dilution could push long-term investors out the door?
Would love to hear your takes and analysis on this. Thanks!

Ray