what would your projections be and why?

This is pure nonsense, the market will easily absorb any BTC that Strategy sells.

At various points in time, tens of thousands of BTC have been dumped into the market at once, no issue.

At most we'll see a (short lived) market overreaction.

You can barely see it. MSTR traded below IBIT for a minute.

Remember when IBIT started trading in February? The bears thought MSTR would become obsolete. MSTR tanked for a minute, then went to 550.

Today, the FUD suggests that MSTR cannot sustain its divy payments. Every chart tells a story.

When these lines touch, it marks a point where the bear thesis is wrong again.

The Market Blinked. STRC Didn't. The opportunity was hidden in plain sight, and anyone willing to model the capital structure could see it. To be clear, the liquidation-driven trade against STRC has largely run its course. After trading below $75, STRC has rallied roughly 20% in less than a week, moving back toward par as selling pressure subsided.

The question is: what changed?

In my view, very little fundamentally changed. The underlying credit profile didn't suddenly improve. The headlines didn't become materially more favorable. Bitcoin is still at a near 100-week low as I type this. What changed was that forced selling eventually exhausted itself, allowing price to reconnect with intrinsic value. Common sense entered the picture.

During the selloff, the prevailing narrative was that Strategy would eventually be forced to sell its Bitcoin, making STRC an unsafe security. That thesis spread quickly, despite having little support from anyone who had actually modeled the company's capital structure and cash obligations.

A simple spreadsheet told a very specific story.

Even under significantly lower Bitcoin prices, Strategy appeared highly unlikely to miss a preferred dividend payment. Not in the near, or long term. The market wasn't pricing a deteriorating credit profile... it was pricing liquidity, fear, and forced liquidation. This was obvious, in the figures. Some retail, unfortunately, fell into the trap and created even more 'opportunity' for those sharks (and those of us who noticed this dynamic).

That distinction matters.

Investors who focused on headlines saw a collapsing security. Investors who focused on cash flows, asset coverage, and payment obligations saw a preferred security yielding around 17% with meaningful upside simply from returning toward par. We rushed in. We still are.

The result is an unusual, and fleeting combination: exceptionally high income and the potential for substantial capital appreciation as the temporary dislocation corrected. Market dislocations like this are uncommon, but they are worth studying carefully. They are reminders that price and value can temporarily diverge, especially when forced sellers and emotional narratives dominate the conversation.

The next time a similar opportunity appears...

... don't start with social media, and don't listen to PoOpStain3369, even if he's getting all the upvotes on a meme mocking STRC or Saylor.

Start with the spreadsheet.

I was floored to hear Avi Feldman tell Pomp that it "was probable" that Saylor would eventually collapse STRC to save MSTR. This seems IMprobable to me, as it'd destroy the entire credit facilities of the preferreds. Thoughts? I think I've keyed the link to start playing at 23:19 (watch next three mins): https://youtu.be/bJD-Ftig30M?si=DCRAptk5nWgaaM5S&t=1395

When I compare Amazon's 95% drawdown and eventual recovery to MSTR's potential to do the same, the pushback I always get is "it's not apples to apples, Amazon actually sells something."

They're not wrong. But they're missing a large part of it.

The goods and services Amazon provides are precisely why it took so long to recover. TradFi companies carry too many moving parts. MSTR's digital credit structure cuts through all of that. No warehouses, very few people, no inventory, etc. You can literally track MSTR's earnings in real-time.

From Saylor's first Bitcoin announcement in August 2020 to the peak, it took four years and three months to peak at 4,244%. That's the advantage of not being an Amazon and the main point people miss.

Bitcoin tanks 50-90% regularly; its a characteristic of Bitcoin but its a death sentence to most companies in the TradFi space. Bitcoin is not TradFi.

The CLARITY Act is supposed to go up for a vote in July if we can get the boys and girls in our gov't to play nice. Once we get a regulatory framework for digital assets; this will lift the uncertainty from the rating agencies. Once STRC gets an IG (investment grade) rating, that opens the door to $130T of capital that can buy it.

Can MSTR drawdown 90% again from its peak and turn around to be a trillion dollar company in the next 5-10 years? My answer is hell yes.

Stop thinking of MSTR as a TradFi company. It doesnt have overhead, warehouses, raw materials to source or traditional products to sell. If Amazon tanked 70% today, it would take 2 decades to recover, if at all.

If you like patterns.... Bitcoin has tanked over 70% 5 times already and it has recovered every time. BTC is currently -50% and this could be the 6th time.

Bears have been wrong all 5 times. This time is no different. When BTC tanks; MSTR tanks. When BTC hits another ATH, bears will continue to be wrong 100% of the time.