u/BFLO-Retail

Started rolling weekly CVNA puts this year and they have been bread and butter. +30,598 realized. Rolling weeklies until CVNA hits $20

WEN Calls. Sold last weeks calls for +7k. Will add big time if price backs to the $7-$8

Thanks. Here is to a good 2nd half 2026

BFLO-Retail

Marine traffic data shows Oil Tanker Atlantis 1 was turned back from the SOH as it attempted to make an exit

Update** Atlantis 1 looped back and appears to have made it through the main channel under cover of darkness.

Now that volatility has calmed… price is $7.46. How much lower could it possibly go?

You are all idiots. But I will be an idiot with you.

The 8.3 Million Barrel inventory draw down was substantially higher than the 4.5 million barrel forecast.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/api-weekly-crude-stock-656

Oil is not done. Not today.

US commercial crude inventories stand at 426 Million Barrels (as of the most recent EIA report). Those levels have collapsed from a high of 465 MB just 7 weeks ago.

But hear me out, when the war started US inventories rose for seven weeks before tankers from Europe and the Middle East could be routed to or from North America**. US refineries are also near 100% capacity as producers scramble to supply gasoline and products shortages.

Assuming the SoH opens today (which is one hell of a bold assumption), it is also reasonable to assume that US inventories will continue to decline for another 7 weeks as tanker traffic finds a new normal.

This does not mean oil prices will rise, but it does mean we have likely found a price floor in the low $80's. And if for any reason the negotiations drag on or blow up, any future price increases could be shaped by a physical shortage that will worsen for weeks after the conflict ends.

Positions and Disclosure: I am a retail trader, not an oil or financial advisor. I have a substantial oil long position.

BFLO-Retail

*No Ai was used in this article. F*** off Grok.

19.6 million of 14.5 million USO shares sold short. Traders are short another 140 million barrels on futures markets.

Spot prices have locked in $8 higher than next month futures.

SoH is closed and that shit ain’t opening

1100 barrel WTI YOLO for $96k

Disclosure: I am a retail trader, not a financial advisor or oil professional

BFLO - Retail

This extrapolation line is highly likely to flatten out as supply and demand forces collide in spectacular fashion.

At the current pace, Cushing Inventories will hit their lowest level since 2004 right around the 4th of July.

Edit** Cushing hit 11.8 M barrels June 2004. The world was a very different place back then, and the US was not a major export hub

“When you’re down big yolo a ton of calls, that shits going to the moon”

-Warren Buffet

Last month Avis($CAR) went on an epic squeeze-triggered bull run before crashing to earth.

Take a look at the charts:

1. Both charts show a gradual trickle up before the real gains.

2. At the last week of March Avis flatlined and then gave back a big chunk of growth, before continuing on an even higher trajectory.

3. After a full month of bullishness, the stock dropped of a cliff and returned to it's 6 month averages.

Comparing $CAR to $SPCE(x), is Virgin over-the-top and all down hill from here, or are we in the few day window the stock takes a breather before crushing new highs?

BFLO-Retail

I did some research and here’s how it went:

My broker informed me that Brent oil futures are financially settled against the recent selling price of North Sea oil contracts of at least 700,000 barrels

1 - First I bought a BZN6(July 1000 barrel brent) contract and held the contract through expiration.

2 - On Friday May* 29th the contract had a paper traded value of $91.89 per barrel. Recent EIA prices showed that physical barrels were selling considerably higher in the high 90s and short 100s.

3 - At 6 Pm May* 29th the contracts went completely blank. The contract still showed the symbol BZ but nothing else. All the dollar signs had vanished

4 - Tuesday June 2nd my broker (Power Etrade) deposited ~$10,000 into my account. Not one word of explanation. Here’s your cash have a nice day.

I can reasonably assume that the short holder of this contract was charged the spread between the real world trades and the paper closing price.

BFLO-Retail

Here’s my embarrassing story:

I bought SPCE in 2021 at $8 ($160 reverse split)

When Branson flew to space the shares hit $62 ($1,240 reverse split) and my shares went from $5000 to $35,000

The next day Branson dumped his shares and I being the genius I am, I kept on buying. My gains vanished and as of Jan 2026 my position was down $35,000 + 😵‍💫

At the beginning of the year I decided to harvest a tax loss. I bought 5 x $1 July 26 Calls in Feb and sold my last remaining shares in April to avoid wash sale rules.

And now I just need SPCE(X) to hit $70 for my 5 yr ROI to hit 0%

Richard Musk please take me back to the Moon 🌙😁

BFLO-Retail

Based on how shallow this brent oil backwardation curve is, I believe that all or almost all of the war premium has been drained from today’s oil price.

The spread between July - Aug - Sept is only $2 a month.

The only risk the market is currently pricing is a gradual return to normalcy. Considering a certain major waterway is still closed and 2 major powers have not struck a deal, that seems extremely complacent.

Positions and disclosure: I am a retail trader not a financial advisor or oil pro. At time if writing I am holding BZN6 futures

BFLO- Retail

Citing a recent JP Morgan and Thekaka release, before the conflict Worldwide oil inventories were around 8.4 Billion barrels. At the start of June that number will have fallen by around 700M - 1B barrels, bringing supplies into the 7.4-7.7 B barrel mark.

That doesn’t sound so terrible? That is only about a 7-11% drop.

Well in some ways it’s not that bad and in some ways it is a complete catastrophe. The US and China are flush with barrels. It’s hard to estimate because China is very tight lipped, but between those 2 countries probably around 2.5-3 billion barrels.

Everywhere else is reaching critical minimums that could damage or cripple their economies.

And it’s worse. Of the barrels that are accessible, billions are held in strategic reserves or moving via ships or pipelines and only about 2B are readily in commercial inventories (prewar).

We are looking at rippling shortages hitting the poorest nations in the world and then resonating into Europe and Asia.

Positions and disclosure. I am a retail trader not an oil expert or financial advisor. I have open oil trades in the long direction.

BFLO-Retail

Sources

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-largest-oil-stockpiles-in-the-world/

https://thekaka.substack.com/p/the-worlds-oil-reserves-are-running

1,000 Barrels Brent for July (9 DTE) financially settled.

1,000 Barrels WTI for July (29 DTE) financially settled.

The thesis is pretty simple: The conflict is not over.

The market fell this morning after traders decided the conflict was over for real this time.

However, the last treaty we negotiated with Iran took 20 months to hash out, and I would be very surprised if we got this one done in 1/5th the time.

Disclosure: I am a retail trader, not a financial advisor or oil professional.

BFLO-Retail

This CVNA put trade is positive $20,000 ytd and has room to run.

Technicals are heavily bearish. Not that technicals are much better than tea leaves, but the pattern emerging is a classic death cross.

Insiders are dumping shares. Millions of insider sales and issuance have diluted shares 30% over the last 2 years.

The price is unwinding after a 5-1 stock split and earnings. All the good news is baked in.

Consumer is hurting. Rising gas prices and inflation are hurting consumer purchasing power. Carvana’s heavy reliance on subprime loans make it vulnerable.

Positions and Disclosure: I am a retail trader not a financial advisor. I have open put positions against CVNA.

BFLO-Retail

Rolled CVNA puts to June expiration. This trade is up $20,000 this year and likely has room to run.

All the good news is baked in. Earnings are out. S&P 500 joined. Stock split is done.

Technicals are heavily bearish. Not that the technicals are always right, but a bearish death cross is a pretty good sign the stock is in decline.

The board is dumping shares at record pace. They’ve diluted the stock 30% over the last 2 years and board of directors is frantically selling.

Inflation is up. Consumer is slowing. Wall street has a raging crush on CVNA’s growth story. At a 40x pe ratio any sign of shrinking margins or slowing growth could knock the stock down big time.

Positions and Disclosure: I am a retail investor. Not a financial pro. I am short CVNA with a price target of $15-30

BFLO-Retail