r/SPCE

SEC filing came out that they sold it. They owned about 5.3 million shares worth of calls and now only about 300,000 shares worth of calls… looks like they were part of the dump.

And we’re very likely going red today. Lol from up over 17% to red. Only SPCE can do that.

I’m not posting this as a “SPCE to $20” hype thread.
I think the market may be mispricing what could happen over the next few weeks.

Here’s why.
Most people look at SPCE and see a company that hasn’t started commercial operations yet and has diluted shareholders multiple times.
What I think they’re missing is the setup.
Space is about to become a mainstream investing theme again.

For years, space investing has been niche.
That changes when one of the most recognizable private companies in the world becomes investable. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, SPCX is likely to bring millions of new eyeballs to the sector.

Every major IPO creates sympathy trades.
The question isn’t whether sympathy trades happen.
The question is where the attention goes.
There are very few pure-play public space stocks.
If retail investors suddenly become interested in space, there aren’t many liquid names to choose from.
SPCE remains one of the most recognizable publicly traded space companies in the world.

The debt overhang may be getting less attention than it deserves. The recent note redemption structure potentially pushes meaningful principal obligations further into the future while reducing near-term pressure on liquidity.
The market may not fully appreciate how different the narrative becomes if investors stop focusing on survival and start focusing on execution.

Short interest remains elevated.
I am not claiming a short squeeze is guaranteed.
But history shows that when a stock has a large retail following, a recognizable catalyst, and elevated short interest, moves can become much larger than fundamentals alone would suggest.
Commercial operations are approaching.
The company continues targeting commercial operations in Q4 2026.

If management executes, the conversation shifts from “Can they survive?” to “How much demand exists?”
Those are very different valuation discussions.

My thesis is simple:
Most traders are focused on SPCX.
Very few are asking which public stocks could benefit if retail money starts rotating into the broader space theme.
SPCE might be one of the most obvious answers.

What am I missing?
I’d love to hear the bear case.

Okay stock hype and share price aside, let’s talk about an actual fundamental part of the finances of this company.

We know based on a previous dilation that it was probably around. 2.60s since on May 18th they did around $10 million in dilution with 10 VWAP around 2.65.

But now they need to do it with the 5 day VWAP and they can’t go below the price floor. Only issue is that their price floor isn’t publicly disclosed and it’s not easy to find it either. But we also know the SEC filling came out when the price was around $7 ish. So I wonder what the new price floor is or if it’s still 2.60s.

I can’t imagine it still being $2.60s if the whole point was to advantage of the pump.

The initial space x hype is over. Everyone knows that the IPO is this week and yet we see no hype and buying on the entire space sector as of open this morning. We’re down 4% as of this post… I guess we can only just hope on actual progress with delta and commercial flights.

RDW and RKLB up over 5%. NASA up 3%. ASTS up 1%. This stock has never once failed to disappoint us…. I’m expecting double digit drop for us on space X IPO as people pull out from us to buy that.

Wish I have never touched this POS, lost tons of money on it upon the dilution news. Forget about the SpaceX IPO hype, this ticker has already been banned on wallstreetbet, no point in holding it or hyping it up

I am surprised by how stupid and incompetent the leadership of the company is.

Stay away from this POS, spread the words, short it to the ground and let it burn

I’ve been digging into SPCE ahead of the SpaceX IPO and I think the setup is more interesting than most people realize.

Here’s what stands out:
• SpaceX is the most anticipated IPO in years.

• Retail traders looking for a space-related momentum play have very few liquid optionable names to choose from.

• SPCE already proved recently that it can move violently when volume returns.

• The stock is still well below its recent squeeze high despite the main catalyst week finally arriving.

• Short interest remains elevated enough that a sharp move higher could force additional buying pressure.

• Options activity will be worth watching closely because a move through key strikes could accelerate momentum.

The interesting part to me is the math:
SPCE traded above $8 recently. A move back to those highs would already represent a massive gain from current levels. If momentum traders, options traders, and short covering all show up at the same time, the move could extend beyond what most people currently expect.

I’m not claiming it will happen. I’m saying the risk/reward appears unusually asymmetric heading into the biggest space-sector catalyst in years.

What is the strongest bear case against another SPCE squeeze attempt this week?

After extensive due diligence, I have come to the painful realization that SPCE may not, in fact, become the Apple, Amazon, Tesla and NVIDIA combined.

My bags are too heavy.

Therefore, I will immediately liquidate my entire position and reallocate the capital into safer assets:

* Toilet paper

* Random beach rocks

* Canned soy beans (China likes those!)

* Dogecoin

Farewell, SPCE.

It was a historic journey.

SP500 -1.6%

LUNR -11%

ASTS -11%

RKLB -6%

NASA -8%

If you told me the above information, I would reply SPCE is down 20% as we are a penny stock but we are down 9% !! So stfu and keep your eye on the prize. We are holding up just fine, literally back to the price 2 days ago.

I can hold the stocks till next year but I am wondering what plan everyone has.

Majority of people appear to be having options for June 18 rather than 12.

What I can infer is that the stock surge will be late from that.

Guess what movie comes out in theaters June 12th? Disclosure Day. "Coincidentally" SpaceX IPOs on June 12th. Looks like Aliens are back on the menu boys. Bullish on SpaceX (SPCE)!!