Megacap capex -> NVDA revenue. How long can it really last?
Let's say NVDA goes to $10T. That means they're making maybe $400B/year in net income on let's say $600-800B of revenue. To sustain it, they need to do that every year, forever. Like, you can't just do it one year and drop the next. It has to stay flat or grow forever.
Where is that revenue coming from in the next few years? Hyperscalers are already spending >100% of their income and they are 50% of NVDA revenue. So who exactly is going to by buying hundeds of billions of dollars of GPUs every year, for the next 10-20 years?
For NVDA to sell that much forever means megacap tech has to buy that much forever, which means all those valuations need to collapse as they no longer will ever have any income.
This seems to be a problem. For NVDA to go up, everyone else needs to go down. Meta is spending like 2x it's net income on capex. That's unsustainable. Same with Microsoft, Google, etc. They either need to collapse under neverending capex, or they will have to stop spending -> NVDA revenue tanks.
Any thoughts?