u/Future-Candidate74

12 team, SF, 2 TE+TEP

Context: I took over a truly neglected orphan. Literally the only quality players were Nix, Herbert, Hock, and Jayden Higgins. No lie.

I had 1.04, 1.05, and 1.12. I took Lemon and Sadiq before accepting a trade offer for Herbert, Lemon, Sadiq and 1.12 for Bijan and Tyler Warren.

Then over a couple trades I flipped Warren and Hock for Tyson, Matthew Golden and picks that became Emmet Johnson and Carson Beck.

Then regretted it all. Bijan is wasted on a shit team and further might negatively impact my shot at 1.01. But in terms of trading him, it's a paid league, so only 2027 picks are really in play - and only one guy had two 2027 1sts.

And yet today I divested Bijan.

That said, which side of the before, middle, and after would you choose (honestly asking)?

No trades:
Herbert, Lemon, Sadiq, (probably) Boston

Post-draft:
Bijan, Tyson, Golden, Johnson, Beck

Post-today’s trade:
Tyson, Golden, Beck, Emmet Johnson, Helm, 2027 picks: mid 1^(st), late 1^(st), late 2^(nd), mid 3^(rd), late 3^(rd), and a solid line on 2027 1.01.

I guess the real value of my off-season is in comparing the No Trades and Post-Today's Trade

Lots of understandable angst here about the nerfing of the CSR and then further nerfing of points bonuses and the DD credit (who new everyone loved free 7-11 junk food so much?). Today I read that CSP is ending the 10% anniversary bonus. Over at Venture X, there's some pique about the end of free guests with their Priority Pass. Over at the AMEX Platinum thread (as of this moment) the top two posts are "I hate AMEX Platinum" and "AMEX Platinum is not worth it to me anymore." And everyone everywhere has concluded that travel portal prices are "a scam."

Many of you have probably heard of the Millennium Lifestyle Subsidy (there are articles, you can Google them). It's a period of time (2012-2020) when start-ups like Airbnb and Uber were super cheap. Not anymore. Credit cards points also got wild in that time. Now their time to pull back has come as well.

Enshittification is when the consumer is locked into a product (or concept of product use) and can thus be abused - changing terms, value and prices, crap customer service, you know the drill.

I myself have bent over backwards and spent umpteen hours analyzing if CSR still works for me and building a stack to get 3x+ on everything I buy and then maximize that via transfers. I'm locked in to this "need" or expectation that anything less is unacceptable.

In a quiet moment, I remembered how back in 2013 or so I got the Venture X and discovering the 2x back on travel statement credits and being amazed. Like thrilled.

I'm looking for straight value again, and CSR gives it, in a sense- if I cash my points to cover the AF via Pay Yourself Back (~63,600 pts, as a modest spender, that's about all I get annually), I'll get all the benefits free. No out of pocket. No time spent strategizing. The value I estimate using is equal to about 3.5-4% of my non-grocery spending. Not shabby.

Maybe the best we can do is settle into the travel lane and enjoy the ride. Maybe the party's over.

https://preview.redd.it/wru5lrns6tzg1.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=84f0a48791cb9fa3f9b6edcdb40841245d988cd4

I'm the one sending Bijan.
My team is a neglected, flea-ridden orphan.
The other guy almost has the goods to compete, and Nabers is on the block.
Am I too greedy? Is greed still good?

12-team dynasty, superflex, two starting TE (1.5 TEP), starting 12 overall.

I took over a really bad orphan. The only starting-quality players were Nix, Herbert, Hock, and (maybe) Jayden Higgins.

I went into the draft with 1.04, 1.05, 108, and 1.12, wheeled and dealed those picks, Hock and Herbert into: Bijan, Tyson and Matthew Golden.

Good within the trade-offs itself, I think, but maybe I fucked up by netting -3 starters.

The team is still gawdawful and next year I have only my own picks, rounds 1 - 3. I'll probably get the 1.01, but I'm still so far away and will end up with top 3 pick in 2028 as well.

Is Bijan wasted on such a team when I could trade for a haul (let's assume its a good one)?

EDIT: in all cases, FAAB resets start of season. The question is how to value players.

Subject says most of it, I have little experience with FAAB.

My specific question is how do you determine a FAAB value for post-draft waivers? Is ADP a rough corollary? Is hype?

Two quite different cases:

League #1: shit-ton of value on the wire: Malik Willis, Kyler Murray, several notable 2nd/3rd year guys (Noel, Brooks, K Johnson, Coleman).

Some of these are really going to play - Willis is a starting QB, Murray prolly too. Willis takes 100% of the FAAB to get, right?

Noel plays, but is probably a bench option / hope he develops further for dynasty. If someone wanted him, what's the prudent bid there?

If you were inclined, what's the bid on Brooks or Johnson?

League #2: a more typical availability: top guys are bench vets: Slayton, Bourne, so nothing special. So in this case the focus is on UDFAs,. The most notable are Taylen Green and Kaelon Black.

With a waiver wire like this, is dropping 50% of FAAB on Black prudent?

Thanks for your help!

Started the draft with 1.02, 1.10, and 2.01 without crucial needs and with a roster 24.5 years old on average.

Made a couple trades down, turned down a good offer to move to 2027. *That dude was pretty critical of the subsequent trades I did make.

But which of the results would you prefer?

Stay-the-line:
Tate, Cooper, Coleman

With the trade I rejected:
2027 1st rd (mid), Cooper, Emmett Johnson

With the trades that did happen:
Sadiq, Coleman, Emmet Johnson, Katron Allen, Chris Bell, 3.03 (pending)

EDIT: Ok, consensus is that I screwed up. I accept that assessment. Leave a comment, I'll give you an upvote too!
My only defense is that the team is totally stacked for 2026, and I felt taking a more devie approach with the picks was justified. But thanks for feedback. Food for thought.

https://preview.redd.it/0szj9ilr0uyg1.png?width=278&format=png&auto=webp&s=a17e8aa4b0da9d8bbb23f238a4398e368a064dfc

Have Bryce Young also plus decent bench plays.
What are you adding with 1.05?
Remaining top-3 WR or Price or Sadiq?
Do you take Mendoza if he falls?