MMW:
I think the US political system cannot tolerate a figure like mamdani for much longer. He has a high approval rating and a huge influence on other elections. The longer he is successful the more other people would rise up and demand similar things in other parts of the country. And i don't think america is compatible with that much democracy. Also Israel would take bigger and bigger risks as it is fading away in the US public and i think this assassination could be one of their last hopes. This is made more likely considering he is from uganda. I think he has ambitions for higher positions than mayor of nyc so when he will be campaigning for the next thing or just after he has won it would be the time i suspect he gets assassinated.
Evidence: past figures that got assassinated like MLK
Date: Next 5 years