u/GetDeepSignal

Man, it’s been a wild ride, we’re witnessing an insane memory super cycle.

The Headline Numbers:

Revenue: $41.46 billion. One year ago this quarter it was $9.30 billion. That is +346% year-over-year.

Non-GAAP EPS: $25.11. One year ago it was $1.91. That is +1,215% year-over-year.

Gross margin: 84.9%. One year ago it was 39%. They literally doubled margins.

Beat consensus on revenue by ~$6 billion. Beat EPS consensus by ~$4.40.
Guides Q4 to $50B revenue and $31 EPS. Consensus was $43.2B and $25.31.

That Q4 guidance beat alone is almost $7 billion above what Wall Street expected. For a single quarter guidance raise, that is enormous.

The Quarterly Ramp This Year Has Been Vertical

Q1 (Dec 2025): $13.64B revenue, $4.78 EPS
Q2 (Mar 2026): $23.86B revenue, $12.20 EPS
Q3 (Jun 2026): $41.46B revenue, $25.11 EPS
Q4 (guided): ~$50B revenue, ~$31 EPS

Full year estimated around $129B in revenue. Last fiscal year was $37.4B. That is a 3.4x increase in one year for a company this size.

Alright Stock Pickers, Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 after market close on June 24. This is not a normal earnings report, could potentially break or make next few days of overall market.

The company guided for $33.5 billion in revenue and 81% gross margins back in March. Wall Street consensus currently sits at roughly $34.8 billion in revenue and $19.72 EPS, up approximately 933% year-over-year from $1.91 in FQ3 2025.

But several data points suggest the actual print could run well ahead of both guidance and consensus.

The Pricing Power Behind the Beat:
DRAM prices surged approximately 60% sequentially in this quarter, and NAND pricing rose at least 75% sequentially. These are not guesses. TrendForce data for calendar Q2 2026 (which overlaps Micron's FQ3) shows conventional DRAM contract prices up 58-63% and NAND flash prices up 70-75% quarter-over-quarter. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson confirmed that NAND and DRAM pricing in calendar Q2 rose by "high double to even triple digits," and modeled a 65% QoQ increase in ASPs for both products in Micron's fiscal quarter. Stifel's Brian Chin went further, noting server DRAM contracts are now above $2.50 per gigabyte, roughly double what Micron's original outlook implied.

If the top line lands around $39 billion, that would represent approximately 13% above current consensus and 18% above management's own guidance.

Micron guided for approximately 81% non-GAAP gross margin for FQ3, up from 74.9% in FQ2. But at these pricing levels, with higher-than-expected ASPs across both DRAM and NAND, there is room for gross margins to expand beyond 81%, potentially topping out in the mid-80s. That would place Micron's profitability among the highest ever recorded in the semiconductor industry.

AMD and Rackspace just signed a definitive agreement to deploy 30 MW of AMD AI compute across Rackspace’s global data centers through 2028.

What stands out to me isn’t AMD.
It’s Rackspace.

For years, RXT has been viewed as a struggling managed cloud provider. Now it’s positioning itself as an AI infrastructure platform.

30 MW isn’t a proof of concept.
It’s real AI capacity that Rackspace plans to offer to enterprises in healthcare, finance, government, and other regulated industries.

The question isn’t whether AMD wins here.

The question is whether this is the beginning of Rackspace’s AI turnaround story.

Worth watching. 👀

Fox acquiring Roku for $22B was not on my 2026 bingo card. Will this deal gets blocked? Let’s wait and see.

But this is what makes this interesting:
• Fox gets direct access to Roku’s 100M+ users
• Tubi + Roku creates a massive free ad supported streaming platform
• Fox now controls both content and distribution
• This instantly makes Fox a much bigger player against Netflix, YouTube, Disney, and Amazon in the advertising battle

Feels like this deal is less about subscriptions and more about owning the ad dollars flowing into connected TV.

The streaming wars may be maturing, but the fight for advertising revenue is just getting started. 👀📺📈

Trump says an Iran agreement could be signed tomorrow, potentially removing another geopolitical risk from the market.

Meanwhile, AI spending remains strong, earnings have held up, and liquidity is improving now as SpaceX IPO is past.

Now it feels like the market is running out of reasons to stay bearish.

Are we about to see new all time highs? 📈🚀

Looking at next week’s calendar, it’s hard to stay calm and control emotions.

• US CPI
• ECB rate decision
• Bank of Canada rate decision
• Oracle earnings
• US bond auctions (3Y, 10Y, 30Y)
• Jobless claims
• Michigan sentiment
• And most importantly, SpaceX IPO

Feels like every day has the potential to move rates, AI stocks, or the broader market. And SpaceX IPO will be marked as biggest event for decades to come.

If you’re trading this week, the hardest part might not be finding a catalyst.

It might be surviving all of them. 📈📉

How are you positioning? My gut says we could see some volatility and profit taking into the SpaceX IPO as traders de-risk around CPI, rates, and bond auctions. If the week gets through without a major inflation surprise, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another leg higher before the market starts focusing on the next major catalyst.

We are watching something unprecedented in public markets right now. Two of the largest private companies in the world are barreling toward their IPOs within months of each other.

SpaceX (SPCX):

Public S-1 filed May 20; confidential S-1 was April 1, codenamed "Project Apex"

Roadshow kicks off the week of June 8

Target valuation: $1.5T to $1.75T (merged with xAI in February at $1.25T)

Raise target: $75B+, which would crush Saudi Aramco's $29.4B record as the largest IPO in history

30% retail allocation, unprecedented for an IPO this size

The entire company is listing: launch, Starlink, Starshield, and Grok, all in one ticker

Anthropic:

Filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1
Raised $65B in its latest private round, pushing valuation to $965B

Revenue run rate: $47B annualized (up from $9B at end of 2025)

Target listing: Q4 2026, with October as the most discussed window

Expected raise: $60B+, making it the second largest IPO ever after SpaceX

First pure-play AI lab to test public markets

What makes this wild:

The combined target valuations of SpaceX and Anthropic are pushing $2.7T. The combined potential raise is well over $135B. For context, the entire US IPO market raised roughly $30B across all of 2025.
Both companies are still losing more money than they make, which has analysts shouting "AI bubble" while the same analysts fight for allocation. Seven of the top investment banks are splitting these two deals.
The fun starts next week with the SpaceX roadshow. Anthropic will follow once the SEC review wraps and the market digests SpaceX pricing.

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness” fund just disclosed a 5.6% position in Nebius. My top holding since 2024.

Nebius is compute infrastructure:
GPUs, cloud capacity, AI clusters.

Basically the physical layer AI scaling depends on.

Interesting part is Leopold has been one of the loudest voices arguing that AI progress eventually runs into hard bottlenecks:
compute, power, data centers, infrastructure.

Feels like the market still underestimates how valuable independent AI infrastructure platforms could become over the next few years.

Leopold Aschenbrenner just dropped his Q1 2026 13F.

The ex-OpenAI guy who called AGI by 2027, his fund went from $225M → $13.7B in under 2 years.

Here's what he's betting on for the AI supercycle.

What did you like from his picks?

Ahh finally we are past the big day. Yesterday’s earnings season just gave us a rare, simultaneous look at what the four biggest tech companies on the planet are actually planning for the next 12 months. And the capex numbers are genuinely staggering. Let's break this down.

First the actual earnings were great across the board
Before getting into the macro story, the results themselves were strong:

Google: $109.9B revenue (+22%), net income up 81%, Google Cloud up 63%
Meta: $56.3B revenue (+33%), net income up 61%
Amazon: $181.5B revenue (+17%), AWS up 28% fastest growth in 15 quarters
Microsoft: $82.9B revenue (+18%), Azure up 40%
Every single company beat revenue estimates.

Operating margins are expanding. These aren't struggling businesses scrambling to justify AI spending, they're already seeing the returns. That context matters for everything below.

Now here's the part that should get your attention

These four companies are collectively planning to spend somewhere in the range of $500 billion on capital expenditure in 2026. Most of that is AI infrastructure data centers, custom chips, networking, power.

Here's how the individual commitments break down:

Google raised its 2026 capex guidance to up to $190 billion this quarter and said spending will "significantly increase" again in 2027
Meta raised its 2026 AI capex forecast to $125–145 billion (up from earlier guidance)
Microsoft is guiding toward roughly $190 billion in capex for the full year
Amazon hasn't given a fixed number but AWS is actively capacity-constrained meaning demand is literally exceeding what they can build.

Feels like big tech’s AI capex is running the whole US market or even economy. When it slows we go down.

Today was a rough one if you were holding anything in the OpenAI orbit.

A WSJ report dropped Monday citing people familiar with the matter OpenAI missed several monthly revenue and user targets in 2026. By Tuesday morning, the damage was spreading fast across its entire partner ecosystem:

SoftBank tumbled ~11% in Tokyo

Oracle fell over 7% in US premarket trading

CoreWeave dropped over 7% in US premarket trading

AMD slid ~3% in US premarket trading

Why does this matter beyond just OpenAI?

Markets have been treating these companies as investment proxies for the AI buildout narrative the idea being that if ChatGPT/OpenAI is winning, the whole ecosystem (data centers, power infrastructure, chips, cloud) wins too. So when OpenAI cracks, the whole chain cracks.

The core issue: Anthropic took market share in coding and enterprise AI. These aren't niche segments coding tools and enterprise contracts are where the real recurring revenue lives. Consumer ChatGPT users are great for headlines; enterprise contracts pay the bills.

There's also a bigger macro anxiety here. Investors are already on edge watching whether Big Tech will actually follow through on their massive AI capex commitments. Any sign that the demand side (i.e., OpenAI pulling in customers and revenue) is weakening makes those trillion-dollar infrastructure bets look a lot shakier.

One analyst framed it well: "It's a narrow path any hint of slowing spend gets taken negatively for the ecosystem, but a sharp step-up raises questions about returns and sustainability."

With OpenAI reportedly racing toward an IPO, these missed targets at this exact moment are… not ideal timing.

The AI trade isn't dead, but the "just buy anything OpenAI-adjacent and hold" era might be over.