u/Global_Channel1511

As a macroeconomist, general equilibrium and spillover effects are bread and butter for my field. E.g. corporate tax cut in one state attracts businesses from other states, stimulus checks boost up prices which then dampen an aggregate demand effect etc.

I found it quite surprising that none of the major textbooks in econometrics, like Hayashi, Wooldridge, Angrist and Pischke, Hansen etc. cover violations of SUTVA.

Also, while I'm not an expert in this field, I noticed a very large dearth of econometrics research papers allowing for SUTVA violations. Many of the key identification theorems do not have counterparts allowing for SUTVA violations. Notable exceptions are Munro, Kuang and Wager (2025), Vazquez Bare (2023) and Butts (2023).

I totally understand why Japan needed oil to continue the war effort in China. And I get that the US had sanctioned them and limited oil sales. But why didn't Japan simply just invade the Dutch East Indies, which I believe was the fourth largest oil exporter in the world, without attacking the Americans?

Maybe the Americans eventually declare war anyway, but maybe is significantly better odds than 100%. Once Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they destroyed the pro-isolationist movement in the US overnight. Without a direct attack on the US, it is very possible that FDR would still be constrained by the powerful isolationist movement in the US. And top brass of Japan seemed to know the massive risks of war with the US. The famous quote by Yamamoto for example: "In the first six to twelve months of a war with the United States and Great Britain I shall run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success".

I tried making claude work as best as possible but it’s been about 2 months where the usage limits have just slowed me down substantially. Claude is still a very high quality product but I just can’t get much mileage out of depleting a 4.5 hour limit within an hour.

GPT 5.4 is not as good as Claude but it’s close enough but with substantially more compute where I don’t need to spend energy and anxiety worrying about depleting my tokens.

I wanted to support Claude with my dollars given they had a high quality product and took a laudable moral stance rejecting DoD overreach unlike OpenAI. However Claude is now working with Musk, who ultimately supported the rise of this government and DoD, which unfortunately lessens the ethical value added compared to OpenAI.

I for now will keep my Claude sub but at some point if this continues I’ll make a full migration.

Sometimes I'm in a talk and I see an author passing 20+ robustness checks — different controls, subsamples, functional forms, estimators, alternative measurements — and the coefficient barely moves. And instead of feeling reassured, I find myself thinking: what are the odds all of these pass unless the authors p-hacked or did specification searches?

I don't blame the authors for this as referees and seminar audiences demand to see every possible robustness check. Referees and audiences have created an equilibrium where the only way to survive peer review is to search or p-hack until everything lines up.