u/GreatWhiteHunter1012

▲ 6 r/BOXABL+1 crossposts

What I’m looking for next from BOXABL

Now that BOXABL is public, I think the investment question is becoming much simpler:

Can BOXABL convert roughly $230M of historical investor capital, two factories, its patents/designs, regulatory progress and enormous brand recognition into a manufacturing operation that generates meaningful recurring revenue before it needs substantial additional capital?

The upcoming 10-Q should help answer that. I’m primarily looking for revenue growth, actual deliveries, production throughput, cash burn and how much additional capital may be required to scale.

I also think an important part of the original BOXABL thesis has been lost over the years. The Casita was never really supposed to be the end state. It was the demonstration of the manufacturing system and technology. The bigger opportunity was always using standardized components and factory production to build many types of housing at scale.

That’s why I’m interested in the broader product platform we’re starting to see. If BOXABL can prove the manufacturing system works beyond the Casita, the opportunity becomes much larger.
The new M&A strategy is also worth watching. Public stock gives BOXABL another way to acquire manufacturing, distribution, installation, land or technology. Done well, that could accelerate the strategy. Done poorly, it could simply create dilution.

I’m optimistic, but at this stage I want the numbers to start validating the story. The next few quarters should tell us a lot.

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u/GreatWhiteHunter1012 — 2 days ago

2014 Carrera or 2009 Carrera S?

Hi everyone, first post here. My wife has wanted a 911 for years and we’re finally in a position to seriously shop for one. This would be a weekend car and a dream-car purchase, not a daily driver.
We’ve narrowed it down to:

2014 Carrera (991.1) — 64k miles, PDK, about $66k
2009 Carrera S (997.2) — 27k miles, PDK, about $78k

I’ve read enough to know people seem to have strong opinions about both generations, but I’m still learning. For someone buying their first 911, which would you choose and why?

Would you prioritize the newer car and lower price (991.1) or lower miles and Carrera S badge (997.2)? Anything specific we should watch out for on either car?

Thanks in advance for helping a Porsche newbie out.

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u/GreatWhiteHunter1012 — 2 months ago

BOXABL preferred investors: are people understanding what this SPAC structure actually means?

NOTE: I'm reposting to this community since the Founder of BOXABL removed my post in that sub.

I’m a crowdfunding preferred shareholder [of BOXABL, BOXB / FGMC] trying to sanity-check the economics here.

Let’s use a simplified example:

  • Assume you own 10,000 BOXABL preferred shares
  • Assume internal economic value = $0.80/share
  • Total economic value = $8,000
  • Merger reference price = $10/share

So your public-equivalent math becomes:

10,000 × $0.80 = $8,000

Then:

$8,000 ÷ $10 = 800 BXBL shares

Not 10,000 public shares.

That part is actually fine. That’s just recapitalization math.

The insane part is the liquidity structure.

Per BOXABL’s SEC FAQ:

  • Preferred stock is NOT listed
  • Preferred stock is NOT tradable
  • ~14 months after closing, 20% converts to common
  • Then another 20% per month
  • Only converted common becomes tradable

Assume merger closes mid-June 2026.

That means:

Date Tradable Shares Locked Shares
Jun 2026 0 800
Aug 2027 160 640
Sep 2027 320 480
Oct 2027 480 320
Nov 2027 640 160
Dec 2027 800 0

So let’s model outcomes.

Scenario 1: Price stays flat at $10

Best-case stable market fantasy.

Unlock Date Shares Price Value
Aug 2027 160 $10 $1,600
Sep 2027 160 $10 $1,600
Oct 2027 160 $10 $1,600
Nov 2027 160 $10 $1,600
Dec 2027 160 $10 $1,600

Total = $8,000

You break even.

Scenario 2: Price grows 10% annually

Optimistic growth case.

June 2026 → Aug 2027 ≈ 14 months

$10 × (1.10)^(14/12) ≈ $11.18

Approx unlock values:

Date Price Shares Value
Aug 2027 $11.18 160 $1,789
Sep 2027 $11.27 160 $1,803
Oct 2027 $11.36 160 $1,818
Nov 2027 $11.45 160 $1,832
Dec 2027 $11.54 160 $1,846

Total ≈ $9,088

Gain ≈ 13.6%

Over 18 months.

Not exactly moonshot.

Scenario 3: Average de-SPAC performance

Historically, many de-SPACs perform terribly after merger (median long-term returns have generally been poor vs IPO benchmarks; exact averages vary by cohort/provider).

Let’s use a simplified ugly-but-plausible path:

  • Close at $10
  • Month 6 = $6
  • Month 12 = $3
  • Month 14 = $2
  • Month 18 = $1.50

Then:

Unlock Date Price Shares Value
Aug 2027 $2.00 160 $320
Sep 2027 $1.90 160 $304
Oct 2027 $1.75 160 $280
Nov 2027 $1.60 160 $256
Dec 2027 $1.50 160 $240

Total = $1,400

From original $8,000 economic value.

-82.5%

The actual concern

This isn’t about whether BOXABL succeeds as a company.

It’s about structure.

Public FGMC/BXBL investors get immediate liquidity.

Crowdfunding preferred investors absorb:

  • recap dilution
  • no liquidity at closing
  • delayed conversion
  • market risk while trapped

So the question:

Is this actually shareholder-friendly, or are retail preferred investors effectively exit liquidity with a time bomb attached?

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u/GreatWhiteHunter1012 — 3 months ago