u/Green_Candler

Based off real public filings with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics (OGE)

- More than 3700 Transactions
Transactions totaled $750 million

Wall Street analysts called the volume “insane” for a personal portfolio… To me, the president is clearly profiting from policy influence. It’s literally corruption in broad daylight. Even if it’s a third party trading for him, they are obviously getting insider information from him &/or his administration so that argument is irrelevant.

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/trump-stock-trade-tech-oge.html

Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-traded-nvidia-boeing-intel-030913697.html

Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/trump-bought-nvidia-boeing-microsoft-in-flurry-of-transactions

Reuters https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-ethics-filing-reveals-thousands-trades-tied-us-corporate-securities-2026-05-14/

The reports about Trump dropping the big IRS suit in exchange for a $1.7B fund for allies are getting attention. Whether you see it as payback or settlement, it adds fresh uncertainty at a time when 10-year yields already pushed to multi-month highs and oil stayed firm on Hormuz concerns.

Markets hate extra variables. We saw Nasdaq and semis lead the downside today on the inflation read-through from yields. Now this story could keep volatility elevated into next week. VIX has room to move if headlines keep coming.

I’m watching how this affects risk appetite on my Bitget acc. Gold (GLD) and longer Treasuries might see some bid as a simple hedge. Equities, especially anything sensitive to rates or sentiment, could stay choppy. Not changing my core positions yet, but sizing smaller on swings until the dust settles.

• Regular gas: $3.13 per gallon → $4.59 per gallon
• Electricity: 17.5¢ per kWh → 22.7¢ per kWh
• Crude oil: $70 per barrel → $124 per barrel
• Heating oil: $2.50 → $4.99
• Coal: $116.35 per ton → $158.40 per ton
• Beef: $5.50 per lb → $8.49 per lb
• Bread: $2.00 → $2.69

Oil has traded above $100 per barrel in recent sessions amid supply pressures.

Higher energy and commodity prices have supported upstream producers such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), both of which are up solidly year to date. The same environment has added cost pressure for households and some consumer-facing businesses.

Curious how others here are thinking about energy exposure or staples names with these input costs in mind. Bitget Get claw was predicting more volatility in the oil market so i setup with triggers for SL/TP turned on, waiting for the initial pullback...

Context:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/cars/news/2026/05/04/gas-prices-rise-all-50-states-highest-lowest/89929126007/

WSJ reports Apple and Intel have a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some of the chips used in Apple devices. Talks ran for more than a year, with a formal deal reached recently. The Trump administration pushed for it after converting grants into a roughly 10% government stake in Intel.

Exact products and volumes are not detailed yet. Apple designs its own chips and has relied mainly on TSMC; this appears to be a diversification step rather than a full shift.

Quick notes on affected names:

• INTC: High-profile foundry win that supports the current turnaround push under the new CEO. Revenue impact is probably 2027 or later at best. Stock has already run significantly this year.
• TSM: Apple remains a major customer, but this adds another supplier option. TSMC capacity stays tight through 2028 due to AI demand from other clients.
• NVDA: Already has its own partnership with Intel on custom silicon. A stronger US foundry base helps the broader ecosystem.
• AMD: Watches Intel’s manufacturing progress and any shifts in competitive positioning for CPUs.
• ASML: Stands to see continued tool demand as Intel invests in advanced processes like 18A and 14A.

Broader context includes US onshoring efforts and Apple’s interest in reducing single-supplier risk amid tight capacity elsewhere.

Full WSJ piece: https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-intel-have-reached-preliminary-chip-making-agreement-69eb9370

What do you see as the realistic timeline or bigger picture for these names?

Reports say Russia fired over 100 drones and missiles into Ukrainian cities late Tuesday, killing at least 27 people and striking a gas production site in Poltava. Ukraine has been responding by targeting Russian oil infrastructure, including the Kirishi refinery. Both sides hitting energy assets adds another supply-side complication on top of Middle East issues.

Oil (CL) and natural gas prices have room to stay supported if these disruptions continue. US majors like Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) can benefit from firmer prices, while European energy plays face their own crosscurrents. This kind of back-and-forth usually keeps commodity volatility alive.

Anyone else watching how the Ukraine energy strikes are feeding into global oil and gas positioning?

Trump sent a letter to Congress on May 1 saying the conflict that started February 28 has ended and the 60-day approval clock no longer applies. On Fox News yesterday he called the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports, which has cut their crude exports, "a very friendly blockade. Nobody's even challenging it."

Oil has held above $110 on the supply pressure. Energy names such as XOM, CVX and COP have held up better than the broader market. Airlines like DAL, UAL and LUV are feeling the fuel cost squeeze, with some trimming routes or guidance.

The blockade looks set to stay in place even with the "terminated" language.

How are people reading this for energy versus transport stocks right now?

Source: https://www.irishstar.com/culture/entertainment/fox-news-donald-trump-iran-37104740

GameStop (GME) made an unsolicited offer to acquire eBay (EBAY) for about $56 billion. The deal is half cash and half GME shares, at $125 per EBAY share, a 20% premium to Friday’s close.

Ryan Cohen, GME’s CEO, said he plans to run the combined company and turn eBay into a real competitor to Amazon. He pointed to overlap in collectibles like trading cards, plans to integrate operations, cut costs, and improve earnings. Cohen has been building a roughly 5% stake in eBay since February and noted GME has around $9 billion in cash to help fund it. He would take no salary, only performance-based stock.

If eBay’s board rejects the offer, GME is prepared to go to shareholders via proxy fight. eBay shares rose about 12% in after-hours trading on the news. GME’s market cap is currently around $12 billion, so the deal would be a stretch and likely involve extra financing (they’ve lined up $20 billion in debt commitments).

Link: https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/gamestop-is-offering-to-buy-ebay-for-56-billion-ceo-ryan-cohen-says-fd330f5a

Thoughts on how this lands for GME shareholders?

The State Department waived congressional review on Friday for $8.6 billion in weapons packages. Biggest chunks: Patriot air and missile defense replenishment to Qatar (RTX and Lockheed Martin), APKWS precision rocket systems to Israel, Qatar and the UAE, plus an integrated battle command system for Kuwait that pulls in RTX and Northrop Grumman.

Secretary Rubio signed off citing an “emergency” that required immediate action. This lands while the ceasefire after the February strikes on Iran is barely three weeks old and already looking thin.

For the primes it’s straightforward: more orders for systems that are already in high demand. LMT and RTX get the Patriot and APKWS work, NOC gets a slice of the Kuwait command system. These aren’t new development programs, they’re replenishment and sustainment, which usually means faster cash flow once the paperwork clears.

Still, the timing raises the obvious question. Is this just smart logistics while partners restock, or does it reflect quiet expectations that the pause won’t hold? Defense names have been steady but not explosive lately.

Anyone modeling how much of this $8.6B actually hits 2026-2027 revenue for LMT, RTX and NOC?

Link: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-894888

Meta's Q1 report showed daily active users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger fell 20 million from the prior quarter to 3.56 billion. The company cited internet disruptions in Iran from the conflict and a WhatsApp restriction in Russia.

Revenue jumped 33% to $56 billion with even stronger profit growth. Still, shares of Meta (META) fell more than 7% in after-hours trading on the softer user numbers and higher AI spending plans.

Plenty of users online welcomed the smaller base. They often cite too many ads, junk content, and platforms that feel worse than before. Some have deleted apps or cut time spent for mental health reasons or simply because it no longer adds much value.

With billions still active daily, a 20 million dip might not shift the business much. It could be mostly one-off problems rather than a lasting trend.

Have you left any Meta apps recently or noticed them declining? What do you think the stock reaction says about investor views on growth?

President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal and said the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will stay until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal on US terms. He described the move as more effective than bombing and said Iran is struggling with its oil exports. Officials in Iran warned of strong responses if the pressure continues, and traffic through the strait has already fallen to just 154 ships in a recent period from thousands normally.

The standoff is keeping Iranian crude off the market and raising questions about global supply. The US has spent about $25 billion on the effort so far.

Higher oil prices from tighter supply often help energy companies. Shares in ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) tend to move up when crude strengthens. Companies that operate tankers, such as DHT Holdings (DHT) and Frontline (FRO), have also drawn attention as alternative routes or demand for their ships could increase. At the same time, rising fuel costs can pressure airlines, retailers, and other businesses that rely on cheap energy.

The earlier Iran thread here had solid discussion on market moves. What stands out to you in energy names or oil futures right now? Here's the report for more details: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1uhhoyczx

The US will soon begin issuing passports featuring an image of President Donald Trump inside, a State Department official said Tuesday.

The official said that the passport “will be the default passport out of the Washington Passport Agency when available” for those who renew their passports in person at that location.

“Online options or other locations will maintain existing passport design,” the official said.

The presence of Trump’s likeness in the US passports is the latest, and most significant, instance of his image being used for an item said to be commemorating the 250th anniversary of US independence. Unlike a commemorative coin or national park pass, a US passport is an internationally recognized form of identification that is typically valid for 10 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/28/politics/us-trump-passport

BP just released its Q1 numbers, the first since the Iran conflict began. Underlying replacement cost profit hit $3.2 billion, more than double the $1.38 billion from a year earlier and ahead of analyst forecasts.

Strong oil trading results drove most of the gain as crude prices jumped on supply worries and volatility tied to the war. Brent has traded well over $80 and hit $100+ at times. BP notes that every $1 per barrel move in oil prices can swing its pre-tax profits by around $340 million.

Other energy stocks reacted to the same factors. Shell (SHEL) and Exxon (XOM) shares have moved on higher oil and refining margins. Retail traders in oil CFDs or BP stock CFDs also saw sharp daily swings.

Upstream production stayed flat near 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. With ceasefire talks still moving and oil futures (CL) staying sensitive to headlines, what are your thoughts on these majors or commodity positions now? Any shifts after the numbers?

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/oil-giant-bp-announces-huge-rise-in-profits-in-first-results-since-iran-war-13537444

Here come the maga troll to talk shit on bernie when hes the only one making any sense anymore.