What should be a realistic expectation for next year league position?
I don't think we will be challenging for the title or even finish third. Pep leaving will open the league up massively and Arsenal aren't really that good to dominate the league like how City and Liverpool used to.
However they're still miles ahead of us in terms of squad depth. Same with Chelsea who under Xabi Alonso will probably stop being a joke and be a serious team. Liverpool would be much better too, Slot will either improve or be fired with a competent manager coming in. Villa still has Emery and Newcastle won't have any European games so they will be strong next year. All the teams are going to strengthen in the transfer window.
I still think Carrick overachieved and was lucky to get 3rd with an injury to either Mainoo or Casemiro away from everything imploding. Shaw also managed to defy his body and play every match. At the moment we have at most 14-15 players who I'm comfortable starting a match (drop off from Casemiro to Ugarte is huge, for example) when ideally you need two players for each position. Even if we get 5-6 players in, there isn't enough depth to play 60 matches.
For me remaining in the top 5 while doing well in the cups and Champions League would be a good second season for Carrick. Obviously if we have an amazing transfer window and assuming all the new players start contributing from match 1 would change things but after the past 13 years, that's still wishful thinking.