u/Grouchy_Honeydew2499

Every week someone posts here asking if they should buy a condo and 40 people show up to say "lol no, rent forever, condos are a scam." And honestly? They're mostly right. I've been watching this market for years and the warnings are usually correct.

But the math right now is weird. Like, actually weird. And I don't think people have caught up to it yet.

Metro Manila condo vacancy is sitting at around 25%. The Bay Area is over 50%. There are roughly 30,000 ready for occupancy units that developers cannot move. Two years ago a "discount" was 10% off and a free fridge. Last month I watched a developer offer 45% off TCP, waived VAT, waived downpayment, and a ₱150K gift certificate. They are not doing this out of kindness. They are panicking.

Meanwhile BSP has cut rates five times since August 2024. Policy rate is at 4.25%, down 225 bps. Mortgages followed. Luxury CBD prices dropped 2% nominal and almost 4% in real terms last year, third straight quarter of declines.

So you've got desperate sellers, cheaper financing, and falling real prices all hitting at the same time. That doesn't happen often.

Now here's where I get crucified in the replies, so let me get ahead of it:

The peso is terrible. Down 4% YTD against CAD, 18% over the last decade. If you're buying with foreign currency you're catching a falling knife on a falling asset. Foreigners still can't own land, only units, capped at 40% of the building. Yields are getting murdered by the same oversupply that's giving you the discount, you can have the cheap entry OR the rental income, not both. And about 60% of condo associations are run by clowns who'll triple your dues to repaint a lobby nobody asked for.

All true. But none of it kills my thesis.

• Buy if you're looking for a place to live in long term and not an investment
• If you accept the premise that COL tends to increase at a faster rate in developing countries, plan to live here permanently, and want to stabilize your housing expenses going forward.
• Focus on established CBDs - BGC, Makati, Rockwell, Ortigas. Not Bay Area, never Bay Area. RFO only, no pre-selling unless you enjoy gambling. Cash or pre-approved financing so you can actually pressure the salesperson. And you have to plan to live in it or sit on it for 7+ years.
• If you're trying to buy a 2BR in Pasay to rent out for passive income, please put the deposit back in your pocket and walk away.

If that's you, right now is probably better than 2019 and almost certainly better than 2028, because Colliers is forecasting completions to drop and vacancy to start easing in 2027. The discounts disappear when the inventory does.

Change my mind.

Live in Cebu city and considering 65k PHP per month for a 2bd condo that's 69sqm.

Decent condos are definitely not cheap in PH.

Looking to get feedback from those with children. Filipina mother claims that father is not providing sufficient support given cost of living increases in PH.

What the foreign father currently provides (child is 10 and in private school):

• 100% of school expenses - including tuition, transportation, clothing books, tutors, after school activities, etc.
• 100% of healthcare expenses
• 100% of expenses related to child to spend time with father during key holidays (including summers)
• 50k per month in child support given directly to the mother each month. Even during months when child is with father
• Things father previously paid for - 3M PHP home so that child would have a stable house vs moving from rental to rental, 600k PHP vehicle (mother claimed it was necessary to drive child to friend's house, after school activities, etc.)
• Things father will have to pay for when child becomes of university age and moves to Canada for university: Tuition, housing, food, transportation, healthcare, etc. All for four years, plus potentially grad school if child so chooses. Only mentioning this because this is something the father is saving for each month and will likely cost ~$100k-$200k. Mother can't contribute a single peso towards this.

Mother is currently claiming that cost of living in PH has increased and the 50k should be increased to 75k or she will have to sell the home to survive.

For foreign guys with a child in PH, how much are you paying for support?

I am currently looking in Cebu but finding that the decent condos (i.e. Ayala Alveo level) are fairly expensive - 65k for a 2bd/1bath 69sqm.

Are the rental prices better in Manila given the high vacancy rates?

Assuming that you had to live in a single PH city for the rest of your life, which one would you choose and why?

Me - Cagayan De Oro. Mostly because they are the friendliest people in all of PH. And the city has enough of the things I need - gym, supermarkets, restaurants, and a decent hospital.

Just finished chatting with an American friend of mine who asked his girlfriend, a single mom with a 10-year-old daughter, to quit her job so they could spend more time together.

She works remotely for a US company and earns 30k PHP per month. He offered her 50k PHP per month to quit.

His reasoning? He wants a full-time girlfriend, not a part-time girlfriend.

Sounds generous? Not so fast.

• I asked him what would happen if they broke up after 1-5 years and she had a massive gap on her resume with limited job prospects given AI progress and changes in the BPO world. Would he continue supporting her financially?
  • No. Not a single peso.
• I asked what would happen if he passed away, since he’s older than her. Was she included in his will?
  • Again, no. He plans to leave 100% of his assets to his son in the US.
• I asked whether he would at least commit to funding her daughter’s education through university if the relationship ended.
  • Once again, no. Nothing.

At that point, I lost a lot of respect for him. I can’t respect a man who asks a single mother to give up her financial independence and future security purely for his own convenience, while taking zero responsibility for the long-term consequences she and her daughter could face.

So I have been living in PH for years and a friend recommended I get my dental cleanings in Thailand instead of PH. Just did my first dental cleaning in Hua Hin after getting them done in Cebu and Manila the last few years....10x better cleaning and the difference is so noticable. They are just so much more thorough. I never ever felt 100% satisfied in PH because it seemed like they always did a half job and my teeth never felt fully clean.

Btw, I got the Airflow GBT state of the art method in both countries. And they both cost about the same (6k PHP vs 3k THB).

I guess I am flying to Thailand every 3 months to do dental cleaning from now on.

Hey all,

Seems like most foreigners move here to date. Anyone else voluntarily single but have a great social life here?

I find that most people here build their social life around their partner. However, I have zero interest in dating anyone because I recognized years ago that I am terrible at relationships.

However, building a good social circle is a little tougher as a single foreigner in PH. Any and all tips appreciated.

Genuine question for condo owners in this group - what am I missing on the math?

Trying to make sense of buying vs. renting at Solinea (or any CBP/IT Park condo really). Running the numbers on a 1BR I can't get them to work, so help me see the other side.

Typical 1BR scenario, conservative end:

• Purchase price (~50-54 sqm resale): ₱9.5M
• Realistic long-term furnished rent: ₱40k/month = ₱480k/yr
• Gross rental yield: ~5.0%

Strip out the real costs:

• HOA dues (~₱5k/mo): -₱60k
• Real property tax: ~-₱65k
• 1 month vacancy: -₱40k
• Property manager (5-8%) + basic maintenance: ~-₱70k
• Net rental yield: ~2.5–3.0%

Now compare to the actual risk-free, PHP-denominated alternative:

• PH 10-year government bond: 7.15% (BTr / Tradingeconomics, 6 May 2026)
• Pays more than 2x the net rental yield
• No tenants, no HOA assessments, no liquidity discount on a ₱10M asset, no concentration risk in a single Cebu tower

For anyone buying with a mortgage it gets worse:

• BPI/BDO 1-year fixed rates: 6.5–7.5%
• The net rental yield doesn't even cover the interest portion of the mortgage, let alone amortization
• You're subsidizing the asset every month and betting entirely on appreciation

For foreign investors (Chinese, Koreans, etc) there are additional risks:

• PHP has depreciated ~1% annually vs. USD over the last 20 years. So your net rental yield in USD terms is actually 1.5%-2% instead of 2.5% to 3.0%.
• There are transaction costs associated with bringing money into and out of PH.

Genuine question, not trying to start a fight: How can any investor look at the above figures and still think that buying a condo in Cebu is a good idea? What am I missing that they're seeing?

Really do want to hear from people who've run this comparison and concluded it makes sense.

The $1k per month to live like a king videos are clearly BS, but how much would you say one needs to live like a king each month in one of the larger cities.

Definition:

• Two adults (w. Gf)
• Spacious 2-3br condo or home (Higher end developer)
• Car
• Regular travel within PH and occasional international travel
• Eat out regularly
• Many hobbies
• Great healthcare

Just this month I have had two dudes hit me up for loans. Said no both times. Both were younger dudes who claimed to have lost freelance clients - told them that they should just go back home but they refuse because they are in "love".

Hey all,

I am considering renting a 1br condo in Cebu for 35k. It's a very nice unit but the only thing that concerns me is that the owner also has it for sale. However, the agent told me that it's been for sale for 3 years and the owner won't consider selling for anything less than 12.5M so I am safe to rent it because it likely won't sell this year for that price.

On one hand, I can't imagine anyone wanting to pay 12.5M for that unit. However, all he needs is one dumb foreigner to offer to buy the unit.

How concerned should I be about renting a unit that's also posted for sale?

Was dating someone for 3 months in Cebu and found out that she has an LDR. She's 32, works remotely for a US company, and lives in a nice studio in 38th Park avenue.

Luckily, another foreigner who lives in the same building warned me that she already has an LDR bf that happens to be the guy paying her rent and giving her an allowance.

When I confronted her she lied at first. Then blamed me because I didn't offer to "help" her financially so she had to continue to be in the relationship with the LDR.

Not sure why I am telling you guys. I guess I feel like an idiot as I thought I found a "good one" but turns out she's just another dishonest Filipina.

For some reason social media is now showing me a lot of posts by south Koreans hating against Filipinos and other south east Asians. Images and language that makes the KKK sound tame in comparison.

What's going on? I feel like Filipinos love them so I don't get the hate going the other way

I made the mistake of running to the washroom while my financial spreadsheet was up on my monitor. Gf ended up seeing my income for the previous year. Which is much higher than she likely assumed given that I painted myself as a frugal minimalist. Now she's asking me to help her family with this and that since it's a "tiny" amount for me. However, it's easy to count someone else's pockets when you're not the one who has worked for it - nothing tiny about it to me.