u/GuavaOverall

Information asymmetry and information frictions

How do Austrian Economists deal with information frictions and asymmetric information?

The arguments that lemons lead to market collapse can be made without any mathematical prove and solely can be derived from logic in my opinion.

If and how did Austrians incorporate this in their theory?

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u/GuavaOverall — 2 days ago
▲ 33 r/WPBL

Sabermetric Player Power Ranking after Week II:

The second week was as exciting as the first one! As a Firebells fan, I am of course extra happy about how San Francisco performed. Nonetheless, I made an (unbiased, I promise😉) update to my Sabermetrics-based Player Power Rankings I posted before. Below you find

  • the current top 10 WPBL players by RAA7,
  • the top 10 pitchers by PitchRAA7,
  • the top 10 season performances by WAA and
  • the top 3 contributors for each team by WAA.

RAA7: Additional runs that each player contributes over a standard 7-inning WPBL game in comparison to the average player. This includes both pitching and batting.
PitchRAA7: The same as above, but only considering pitching.

WAA: This translates Runs Above Average to Wins Above Average over the season. It adds up over the season in comparison to RAA7. Interpretation: How many additional wins was the total performance of a player worth in comparison to an average league player.

Current RAA7 Leaderboard (batting PA ≥ 40, pitching IP ≥ 15) — Top 10

# Change RAA7 Name Team PA IP BatRAA PitRAA WPBL_WT
1 ~ 10.63 Denae Benites New York 78.0 0.0 25.23 0.0 0.298
2 +3 7.51 Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 103.0 31.0 22.04 5.70 0.292
3 +18 2.57 Jill Albayati San Francisco 69.0 22.7 4.59 2.71 0.299
4 -2 2.23 Ashton Lansdell Los Angeles 97.0 0.0 6.57 0.0 0.286
5 +12 2.08 Ticara Geldenhuis Boston 57.0 0.0 3.61 0.0 0.268
6 -3 2.05 Kylee Lahners New York 56.0 0.0 3.49 0.0 0.255
7 ~ 1.17 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 0.0 84.0 0.0 39.94 0.354
8 -4 0.76 Andréanne Leblanc San Francisco 69.0 1.0 1.59 0.0 0.264
9 -1 0.73 Amanda Gianelloni San Francisco 63.0 0.0 1.40 0.0 0.286
10 -4 0.68 Jua Park San Francisco 59.0 2.7 1.22 0.0 0.248

This Leaderboard tries to incorporate as much information as possible to make a statement about player talent despite the small WPBL sample size. The RAA7 power rankings are based on season performance but also consider past World Cup performance (How much weight the WPBL games get is the last column WPBL_WT). As a minimum of 40 PA or 15 IP across league and World Cup play is required, some less experienced players who did well are not ranked yet.

For pitchers, it is assumed that they pitch their average innings per appearance over 7 Innings, while position players are assumed to play the whole game.

As batting dominates this leaderboard, I made a second one, solely for pitchers:

Current Pitching RAA7 Leaderboard (IP > 15) — Top 10

# Change PitchRAA7 Name Team IP PitRAA WPBL_WT
1 ~ 1.17 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 84.0 39.94 0.354
2 +1 0.48 Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 31.0 5.70 0.299
3 +1 0.48 Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 28.0 11.00 0.240
4 NR 0.46 Claire O'Sullivan New York 17.0 2.74 0.215
5 NR 0.39 Jill Albayati San Francisco 22.7 2.71 0.299
6 -1 0.39 Rosi del Castillo San Francisco 29.0 3.09 0.106
7 -5 0.14 Michelle Roche Los Angeles 23.7 0.98 0.349
8 -2 0.08 Rakyung Kim New York 35.0 1.00 0.312
9 ~ 0.08 Claire Eccles New York 18.7 0.48 0.117
10 -2 -0.09 Jaida Lee New York 21.7 -0.69 0.278

As I use each new game to evaluate the value of each outcome (e.g. how many runs is a Homerun, Strikeout etc. worth in expectation?), some underlying parameters have changed. Especially, Strikeouts got boosted a lot, which is why Sato and Meidlinger got a good jump in comparison to last week in their RAA7

The following board removes the World Cup data. It shows who the top 10 performing players are right now according to their seasonal WAA:

Current Season WAA Leaderboard (season PA ≥ 2.4× team games, season IP ≥ 0.7× team games) — Top 10

# Change WAA_season Name Team PA_season IP_season BatRAA_se PitRAA_se RAA7
1 ~ 1.34 Denae Benites New York 30.0 0.0 18.17 0.0 10.63
2 +24 0.90 Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 27.0 10.0 11.20 0.97 7.51
3 +20 0.47 Jill Albayati San Francisco 30.0 10.0 5.41 0.92 2.57
4 -2 0.42 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 0.0 13.0 0.0 5.74 1.17
5 +3 0.29 Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 1.0 7.3 0.30 3.64 0.48
6 NR 0.29 Jamie Mackay Los Angeles 22.0 7.0 10.21 -6.32
7 +18 0.28 Ticara Geldenhuis Boston 25.0 0.0 3.86 0.0 2.08
8 +1 0.26 Liz Gilder San Francisco 0.0 6.7 0.0 3.59
9 -5 0.23 Natsuki Yonetani New York 30.0 0.0 3.06 0.0
10 +7 0.22 Alexia Jorge San Francisco 20.0 0.0 2.99 0.0

Finally, the top 3 contributors for each team:

Top 3 Season WAA Contributors by Team

Boston

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Ticara Geldenhuis 0.28 25.0 0.0
Gigi Schiano 0.13 0.0 15.0
Paloma Benach 0.07 0.0 6.7

Los Angeles

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Ayami Sato 0.42 0.0 13.0
Meggie Meidlinger 0.29 1.0 7.3
Jamie Mackay 0.29 22.0 7.0

New York

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Denae Benites 1.34 30.0 0.0
Natsuki Yonetani 0.23 30.0 0.0
Jacqui Reynolds 0.17 1.0 8.7

San Francisco

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Kelsie Whitmore 0.90 27.0 10.0
Jill Albayati 0.47 30.0 10.0
Liz Gilder 0.26 0.0 6.7

Some notes on the methodology:
For young players, it will take a while until they appear on the Power Ranking (First Board) because 40 PA are a lot in a 15-game season. Over the span of the season, the WPBL performance will gain more importance in comparison to the World Cup stats. You can observe likely candidates now in the current WAA7 leaderboard.
One valuable part of the game is very difficult to assess for me right now is defense due to limited data availability and fast-shifting positions. There is no positional adjustment at all, which likely results in some unfair comparisons. Right now, a Shortstop is expected to have the same offensive production as a first basewoman.

How do you feel about these leaderboards after week 2? Does the Power Ranking align with who you believe are the top 10 players in the league? Some players really broke through this week; I am excited to see how the next will be 😄

u/GuavaOverall — 3 days ago
▲ 11 r/WPBL

Sabermetric Player Power Ranking after one week:

EDIT: Updated after August 8th Hunters - Heights Game

The first week of the season is in the books! And so I made an updated Player Power Ranking featuring the Top 10 Players solely on available data. Below you also find a Top 10 Pitcher Power Ranking and the top 3 run contributors for each team.

RAA7: Runs that each player contributes more over a standard 7 Innings WPBL game in comparison to the average player. This includes both pitching and batting.
PitchRAA7: The same as above, but only considering pitching. WAA: This translates Runs Above Average to Wins above average over the season. It adds up over the season in comparison to RAA7. Best interpretation: How many additional wins was the total performance of a player worth in comparison to an average league player.

Current RAA7 Leaderboard (batting PA ≥ 40, pitching IP ≥ 15)

# RAA7 Name Team PA IP BatRAA PitRAA WPBL_WT
1 9.04 Denae Benites New York 60.0 0.0 16.50 0.0 0.163
2 2.78 Ashton Lansdell Los Angeles 82.0 0.0 6.95 0.0 0.173
3 2.26 Kylee Lahners New York 44.0 0.0 3.03 0.0 0.153
4 1.20 Andréanne Leblanc San Francisco 50.0 1.0 1.83 0.0 0.120
5 1.13 Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 85.0 27.0 2.01 3.89 0.188
6 1.12 Jua Park San Francisco 43.0 2.7 1.46 0.0 0.115
7 1.10 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 0.0 79.0 0.0 35.33 0.256
8 0.90 Amanda Gianelloni San Francisco 48.0 0.0 1.32 0.0 0.173
9 0.38 Michelle Roche Los Angeles 8.0 16.0 0.0 1.89 0.164
10 0.35 Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 2.0 24.0 0.0 7.26 0.122

The power ranking is based on season performance but also considers past World Cup performance (How much weight the WPBL games get is the last column WPBL_WT). As a minimum of 40 PA or 15 IP across league and World Cup play is required, some less experienced players who did well are not ranked yet. This Leaderboard tries to incorporate as much information as possible. Therefore, Sato and Whitmore, who were arguably both having an off week going into the season, the World Cup data makes it so that they are still both in the top 10.

As batting dominates this leaderboard, I made a second one, solely for pitchers:

Current Pitching RAA7 Leaderboard (IP > 15)

# PitchRAA7 Name Team IP PitRAA WPBL_WT
1 1.10 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 79.0 35.33 0.256
2 0.38 Michelle Roche Los Angeles 16.0 1.89 0.179
3 0.35 Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 27.0 3.89 0.207
4 0.35 Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 24.0 7.26 0.128
5 0.29 Rosi del Castillo San Francisco 27.3 2.03 0.043
6 0.25 Rakyung Kim New York 33.7 2.99 0.285
7 0.10 Raine Padgham Boston 29.0 0.82 0.224
8 0.07 Jaida Lee New York 18.0 0.42 0.189
9 0.07 Claire Eccles New York 15.7 0.34 0.000

Furthermore, I have a season board, removing the World Cup data, showing who the top 10 performing players are one week into the season so far:

Current Season WAA Leaderboard (season PA ≥ 2.4× team games, season IP ≥ 0.7× team games)

# WAA_season Name Team PA_season IP_season BatRAA_se PitRAA_se RAA7
1 0.74 Denae Benites New York 12.0 0.0 10.10 0.0 9.04
2 0.38 Ayami Sato Los Angeles 0.0 8.0 0.0 5.20 1.10
3 0.35 Michelle Roche Los Angeles 8.0 5.0 1.16 3.56 0.38
4 0.23 Natsuki Yonetani New York 12.0 0.0 3.14 0.0
5 0.21 Rakyung Kim New York 5.0 9.3 -0.92 3.78 0.25
6 0.20 Gigi Schiano Boston 0.0 4.7 0.0 2.72
7 0.16 Amanda Gianelloni San Francisco 13.0 0.0 2.23 0.0 0.90
8 0.16 Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 1.0 3.3 0.30 1.85 0.35
9 0.14 Liz Gilder San Francisco 0.0 2.7 0.0 1.94
10 0.14 Jaida Lee New York 7.0 5.3 -0.74 2.69 0.07

Having watched most of the games this week, I believe this list is very accurate. WAA is a cumulative stat that shows how many wins a player's performance has been approximately worth so far in comparison to an average league player.

Finally the top 3 contributors for each team:

Top 3 Season WAA Contributors by Team

Boston

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Gigi Schiano 0.20 0.0 4.7
Maïka Dumais 0.12 2.0 5.3
Molly Paddison 0.10 8.0 0.0

Los Angeles

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Ayami Sato 0.38 0.0 8.0
Michelle Roche 0.35 8.0 5.0
Jamie Mackay 0.21 7.0 1.0

New York

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Denae Benites 0.74 12.0 0.0
Natsuki Yonetani 0.23 12.0 0.0
Rakyung Kim 0.21 5.0 9.3

San Francisco

Name WAA_season PA_season IP_season
Amanda Gianelloni 0.16 13.0 0.0
Liz Gilder 0.14 0.0 2.7
Alexia Jorge 0.08 11.0 0.0

Some notes on the methodology:
For young players, it will take a while until they appear on the Power Ranking (First Board) because 40 PA are a lot in a 15-game season. Over the span of the season, the season performance will gain more and more importance in comparison to the World Cup stats.
One valuable part of the game is very difficult to assess for me right now, due to limited data availability and fast-shifting positions: Defense. There is no positional adjustment at all, which likely results in some unfair comparisons. Right now, a Shortstop is expected to have the same offensive production as a first basewoman.

How do you feel about these leaderboards? Does the Power Ranking align with who you believe are the top 10 players in the league? Does the current season WAA leaderboard align with who you believe has had the best start so far? 😄

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u/GuavaOverall — 12 days ago
▲ 22 r/WPBL

A sabermetric approach to a first WPBL player power ranking! - Preseason Edition

In the following, I present my first attempt to create a top 10 players list. The run environment is based on Mexico, USA, Canada, and Japan matchups at the Women's World Cup. The individual players' values are based solely on national team performance (including other teams) for now. Therefore, it is heavily biased towards more experienced players and North American players for now. I did not manage to incorporate stats from Japanese Leagues for this (yet). Due to the small sample size and it being impossible to identify playing time for defensive positions, any defensive value is left out.

I imposed a minimum of 40 PA for Batting Runs and 15 Innings Pitched for Pitching Runs. BatRAA is a cumulative stat for runs above average level; PitchingRAA is the pitching equivalent. RAA7 is then how many runs advantage that player gives you over a standard 7-inning WPBL game in comparison to a fictional average player.

Take this initial ranking with extreme caution; it is not adjusted for how good the opponent is, nor the effect of its own team; some stats are from 2013, some from 2026. Only half the players have World Cup stats at all. If anything, this should give you an idea of how the most established players have performed in comparison to each other at the highest stage so far.

A couple of (very obvious) observations: Denea Benites and Ashton Lansdell have been mind-blowing offensively over their national team career. They certainly are some of the most dangerous hitters in the league. Kelsie Whitmore is the only one who hit the threshold for both pitching and batting while performing on a really high level. Although Meggie Meidlinger has not thrown a lot of innings at her World Cup performances, every time she did, she completely controlled the game. Her Pitching Metric is so high because she has only one Walk vs 21 Strikeouts in her career. And lastly, Ayami Sato is a legend with good reason. Nobody comes close to her 70 innings and 63 Ks.

I am excited to see how the data will look in a week, when the many players who didn't have a chance yet to play on such a high level. I will update this with a couple of insights throughout the season :)

Name Team PA IP BatRAA PitRAA RAA7
Denae Benites New York 48.0 0.0 12.13 0.0 8.31
Ashton Lansdell Los Angeles 69.0 0.0 11.89 0.0 5.67
Kelsie Whitmore San Francisco 76.0 21.0 4.96 8.93 5.12
Meggie Meidlinger Los Angeles 1.0 20.7 0.0 14.62 4.95
Ayami Sato Los Angeles 0.0 70.7 0.0 41.0 4.06
Rosi del Castillo San Francisco 18.0 26.3 0.0 8.79 2.34
Raine Padgham Boston 10.0 22.3 0.0 5.63 1.76
Caitlin Eynon Los Angeles 42.0 0.0 2.18 0.0 1.71
Claire Eccles New York 26.0 15.7 0.0 1.11 0.5
Rakyung Kim New York 8.0 24.3 0.0 -0.07 -0.02
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u/GuavaOverall — 21 days ago
▲ 12 r/WPBL

My Projected Lineup for the Fire Bells

Tried my best to find some information on all the players and come up with a Lineup for my Firebells.

Approach was basically to look for experience and just some stats that is out there. The recent World Cup was likely the best data source.

If I couldn't find much information online I replied on the draft order and positions on WPBL because they have likely the best assessment and idea on how they would like the team to play out. Nevertheless, a lot has likely changed since the draft. I noticed some of the players that were drafted high that didn't appear at the World Cup for example.

So here it is:

1 Gianelloni CF

2 Whitmore P

3 Leblanc 1B

4 Albayati LF

5 Gutierrez C

6 Leguizamon SS

7 Kaplan RF

8 Yamamoto 3B

9 Park 2B

What I noticed in the process is a lack of listed Outfielders. A lot of them have extensive Experience at Short Stop. Rosi del Castillo who is listed at CF had a really good run at the World Cup as a Pitcher and I think she may use her primarily as a Starting Pitcher. On the contrary I put Albayati in Left Field because of her good track record at the bat and seeming to appear more in relief. She played Left Field in the World Cup, so I kept her there. Gianelloni went to the CF for me although she is listed at 2B and has played SS extensively in her College career. Thought behind that is to make space for their young infielders with less experience but which the Team has high regard for according to the draft. Catcher was also difficult. Seems like the Firebells have some really strong players at the position.

The hitting order is a bit random especially at the bottom. I believe your best hitter should hit second.

Really excited for the first game and follow my bells through the season 🔔🔔🔔

Feel free to post your ideas for your teams! 🥰

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u/GuavaOverall — 22 days ago