u/GunnerVinny

Record: 19-33

Overall Gain/Loss: -2.05 Units

(Game Props in Separate Post)

Quinn Hughes o2.5 SOG -105: 0.5 Units❌️

Hughes is a top attacking defenseman with the highest TOI of his entire team. He's averaged 4.5 SOG/G so far this season, and the Sabres have averaged 6 SOG Against/Game to defensemen. The real evidence for me is looking at another top attacking defenseman, Zach Werenski. Werenski put up 3 shots against Buffalo in their season opener, and I expect to see Hughes do the same tonight. The Wild have seen 14 total shots from defensemen this season, with Hughes making up over 64% of that volume. Hughes on the power play could also be a factor, with Buffalo averaging 3 penalties/game this season.

3-Pick Parlay -120: 1 Unit✅️

Dylan Guenther o1.5 SOG, Nick Schmaltz o1.5 SOG, Mikhail Sergachev o0.5 SOG

All three of these players are averaging more than 3 SOG/G, and Utah as a whole is averaging 31 SOG/G through 3 games this season. Their opponent, New Jersey, is also allowing 28.5 SOG Against/Game through 2 games, leaving plenty of room for this Mammoth offense to work. I can easily see Guenther & Schmaltz topping 3+ goals & Sergachev hitting at least 2, but for a full unit play, I like taking the decreased lines. New Jersey has also been firing on all cylinders with over 40 SOG/G; however, Utah has allowed just 18.3 SOG Against/Game this season, pulling me away from any player props on the Devils tonight. I also have Utah winning this game in my game props post, so this parlay fits in nicely with that pick as well if you like Utah tonight.

Ondrej Palat Anytime Goalscorer +1000: 0.1 Units❌️

Based on my calculations using xSOG numbers, I've got Palat sitting at 2.73 xSOG & 0.345 xG tonight against the Rangers. I'm expecting this to be a very scrappy & hard fought game, and sometimes in these types of games we'll see goals from unexpected players. Palat already has one goal this season & a total of 6 SOG through 2 games. The counterpoint (other than it being a +1000 odds bet on a fourth-liner to score a goal) is that Shesterkin has been excellent for the Rangers, boasting a .935 SV%, less than 2 GA/G, and even adding 2 points to his stat sheet. The Rangers have given up 2 goals to Bottom-6 players this season, but both of those came in their first game, and both came from the same person (Fraser Minten). If you do decide to tail this, be cautious of how much you're putting on it.

Current Leans (Will Update If Taken):

Jack Eichel u2.5 SOG +125 <-- Not Taken

Sebastian Aho o2.5 SOG -120 <-- Taken 0.5 Units✅️

2-Pick SGP +124: Bo Horvat & Pavel Dorofeyev o2.5❌️ SOG Each <-- Taken 0.5 Units

Record: 19-33

Overall Gain/Loss: -2.05 Units

Could have been a worse first week, and honestly I'm content only being down 2 units with a 19-33 record, granted a good chunk of those losses came last night on a lot of risky player props. Now that we have a bit of a feel on some of these teams, let's look at Tuesday's games.

(Player Props Coming Tomorrow)

Game Props

Carolina ML -120: 1 Unit✅️

Carolina has not started the year strong by any means, averaging less than 2 goals/game and just 1 win in their first 3 games. That being said, this is still the Carolina Hurricanes, and once they get back in their groove they are a very tough team to beat. With an expected 29.15 shots for Carolina, and Dobes' less-than-ideal start with a .862 avg & over 4 GAA, the offense on Carolina shouldn't have an issue scoring. The counterpoint here is that Montreal is a very well-rounded team with a lot of talent. This Canadiens team has the ability to shut down anyone on their night, and Carolina's depth hasn't been overly effective, with only 8 total players logging points so far this season. The current like seems to reflect that, but I'm willing to take the risk on the reigning champions to get the job done tonight.

Ottawa ML -110: 1 Unit❌️

Ottawa is on the second half of a back-to-back, having beaten Boston handedly 4-1 last night. I'm still skeptical of how good this team will be, but so far the loss of Brady Tkachuk seems to be having little to no impact on their overall production. Stutzle, Cozens, and Amadio have looked very good through 2 games, and this Detroit team is losing more players by the day, with Simon Edvinsson being the latest player to request a trade. What this Red Wings team is not lacking in, however, is shooting. Despite being 0-2 & averaging just 1 goal/game, they're still putting up 28.5 shots/game. Thankfully, Ottawa has had great goaltending up to this point, and as long as that continues I expect Ottawa to win both sides of their back-to-back.

Utah ML +114: 1 Unit (Tease Utah 3-Way ML?)✅️

Utah are currently sitting as slight underdogs on the road against New Jersey. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, and they're currently 1-1 on the road, averaging 3 GF/G & 2.5 GA/G in that span. This is an interesting matchup; if you just look at stats, New Jersey has an expected goals number of just 1.585, while Utah has an xG of 4. Both teams have provided high shot volume thus far, but Utah has been the better of the two when it comes to limiting shots from their opponents, averaging just 18.3 SA/G. Utah's goaltending has been very solid, with both goaltenders sitting above .900. Overall though, I like this pick because of how good Utah's offense has looked. Cooley, Schmaltz, Keller, & Guenther have been outstanding thus far, but the depth is arguably more impressive. 15/18 active roster skaters have points through 3 games, and when you can rely on your 3rd & 4th lines to provide scoring, as well as a proficient D-Core, solid goaltending, and something to prove, I have a lot confidence in this Mammoth team to leave New Jersey with a win.

Record: 16-20

Overall Gain/Loss: +0.99 Units

Promo Bet Record: 1-0

Promo Bonus Bets Earned: +$40

We had a solid night last night with a couple plus-odds plays, also hitting our second parlay of the season. Tonight we'll be looking to end off the first week of the season on a high note.

Game Props

WPG @ PIT o6.5 +102: 1 Unit

Winnipeg has been serviceable on the offense, generating 3 goals in both of their games so far this season. Pittsburgh has been the real star of this show, coming in with 13 goals in their first two games of the season. Both teams are averaging over 30 shots/game, with Winnipeg also allowing 30 shots against/game, which could create a nice spot for some SOG player props on Pittsburgh's side. Silovs is a solid goaltender for Pittsburgh, but the Penguins as a whole showed a bit of weakness when they faced an offense that actually remembered they were playing hockey (sorry Philly). This pick does rely on offensive production and not necessarily a lack of defense, as combined these teams are allowing an average of 5 goals against/game. Still, I think this is a good value pick and I'm expecting the price to increase as we get closer to game time.

TB 60-Minute ML -130: 1 Unit

This is one I was waiting to see who would be in goal before placing. It looks like we'll see Vladar in net for Philly tonight, and if he plays anywhere near how he played in his first game, with the combination of no Ristolainen, I don't think the Flyers stand a chance in this one. Tampa has a very good & very efficient offense, and I don't see them wasting many chances here. Vasilevskiy has been serviceable so far as well, and given his previous seasons I don't see Philadelphia scoring more than 2-3 goals unless they miraculously turn into Gary Bettman himself.

Player Props

These picks are based off of my calculator that I built, utilizing the player's existing stats and also incorporating their team's & the opposing team's relevant stats, looking at SOG/F, SOG/A, G/F, G/A on all sides, both at the player and the team level. For each pick I'll include what my model is returning as their expected stat based on their performance & the opponent they are up against.

Ben Kindel o2.5 SOG +180: 0.5 Units (Expected 4.95 SOG)

Josh Morrissey o2.5 SOG +155: 0.5 Units (Expected 4.57 SOG)

Claude Giroux o2.5 SOG +145: 0.5 Units (Expected 4.83 SOG)

Shane Pinto o2.5 SOG +145: 0.5 Units (Expected 4.83 SOG)

William Eklund o2.5 SOG +145: 0.5 Units (Expected 4.83 SOG)

Brandon Hagel o3.5 SOG +150: 0.5 Units (Expected 6.88 SOG)

Owen Tippett Anytime Goalscorer +350: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.522 G)

Kyle Connor Anytime Goalscorer +150: 0.25 Units (Expected 1.009 G)

Josh Morrissey Anytime Goalscorer +550: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.793 G) DK Promo +30% Odds Boost for Anytime Goalscorer, Odds Boosted to +715

Ben Kindel Anytime Goalscorer +275: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.497 G)

Shane Pinto Anytime Goalscorer +285: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.524 G)

Claude Giroux Anytime Goalscorer +370: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.524 G)

William Eklund Anytime Goalscorer +290: 0.25 Units (Expected 0.524 G)

Keep in mind that there is an extremely high probability that these will not all cash. The goal is to find value and spread risk across multiple players while also betting small amounts in order to limit losses in the instance that most/all of these picks do not result in wins. I am taking every pick listed, but if you're not comfortable with that level of risk, pick your favorites and let me know what you're riding.

Parlays

8-Pick SOG Parlay +1724: 0.25 Units (See picks below)

Brandon Hagel o2.5 SOG

Claude Giroux o1.5 SOG

Shane Pinto o1.5 SOG

William Eklund o1.5 SOG

David Pastrnak o1.5 SOG

Ben Kindel o1.5 SOG

Josh Morrissey o1.5 SOG

Kyle Connor o2.5 SOG

This parlay incorporates all of my SOG props listed above, but at lower lines than I've taken above.

Overall -0.71 units

Record: 14-18

Promo Bet Record: 1-0

Promo Winnings/Bonus Bets: +$40

Player Props (Explanations in my post from earlier today):

Tomas Hertl Anytime Goal: +215 / 0.5 Units❌️

McCann, McMann & Eberle 1+ Points: +212 / 0.5 Units✅️

Game Props:

SEA -1.5: +164 / 1 Unit✅️

Calgary has looked awful to start the season, and Seattle on the other hand has gotten off to a hot start. I think this Kraken team is underrated for the talent they have, and I've gone back & forth between -1.5 & 60-minute ML. If you want less risk, the 60min ML is still + odds and I do like them to end it in regular time, possibly grabbing an empty netter at the end to cover as well.

UTA @ NYR u5.5: +100 / 0.5 Units❌️

Both teams have been stingy allowing goals, with their combined average allowed goals this season sits at just 1.83 goals/game. Utah's offense has been the stronger of the two, but to be fair one of their games was against Chicago where they put up 6. I'm relying on the defenses in this game to get the job done and I'm expecting either a 3-1 or 3-2 scoreline in this one.