r/NHLbetting

Tampa Bay Lightning - Moneyline 3 Way (-125) 💲💲💲

The model I created for educational predictions has preferred well over the past few days. I post picks everyday using the model in my discord for free.

Heres the strongest predictions it made today with time stamps. If you have any questions about me or the model feel free to join the discord or even chat with me here😊. The model predicts all games scheduled, with over and unders as well. The rest of the picks are in the free discord.

Today’s Top picks:

Ottawa Senators ML
Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings
Model probability: 63.5%
Issued: 2026-10-05 22:25:35 EDT

New York Rangers ML
New York Islanders @ New York Rangers
Model probability: 58.6%
Issued: 2026-10-05 22:25:36 EDT

St. Louis Blues ML
St. Louis Blues @ Chicago Blackhawks
Model probability: 62.6%
Issued: 2026-10-05 22:25:36 EDT

Record: 19-33

Overall Gain/Loss: -2.05 Units

Could have been a worse first week, and honestly I'm content only being down 2 units with a 19-33 record, granted a good chunk of those losses came last night on a lot of risky player props. Now that we have a bit of a feel on some of these teams, let's look at Tuesday's games.

(Player Props Coming Tomorrow)

Game Props

Carolina ML -120: 1 Unit✅️

Carolina has not started the year strong by any means, averaging less than 2 goals/game and just 1 win in their first 3 games. That being said, this is still the Carolina Hurricanes, and once they get back in their groove they are a very tough team to beat. With an expected 29.15 shots for Carolina, and Dobes' less-than-ideal start with a .862 avg & over 4 GAA, the offense on Carolina shouldn't have an issue scoring. The counterpoint here is that Montreal is a very well-rounded team with a lot of talent. This Canadiens team has the ability to shut down anyone on their night, and Carolina's depth hasn't been overly effective, with only 8 total players logging points so far this season. The current like seems to reflect that, but I'm willing to take the risk on the reigning champions to get the job done tonight.

Ottawa ML -110: 1 Unit❌️

Ottawa is on the second half of a back-to-back, having beaten Boston handedly 4-1 last night. I'm still skeptical of how good this team will be, but so far the loss of Brady Tkachuk seems to be having little to no impact on their overall production. Stutzle, Cozens, and Amadio have looked very good through 2 games, and this Detroit team is losing more players by the day, with Simon Edvinsson being the latest player to request a trade. What this Red Wings team is not lacking in, however, is shooting. Despite being 0-2 & averaging just 1 goal/game, they're still putting up 28.5 shots/game. Thankfully, Ottawa has had great goaltending up to this point, and as long as that continues I expect Ottawa to win both sides of their back-to-back.

Utah ML +114: 1 Unit (Tease Utah 3-Way ML?)✅️

Utah are currently sitting as slight underdogs on the road against New Jersey. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, and they're currently 1-1 on the road, averaging 3 GF/G & 2.5 GA/G in that span. This is an interesting matchup; if you just look at stats, New Jersey has an expected goals number of just 1.585, while Utah has an xG of 4. Both teams have provided high shot volume thus far, but Utah has been the better of the two when it comes to limiting shots from their opponents, averaging just 18.3 SA/G. Utah's goaltending has been very solid, with both goaltenders sitting above .900. Overall though, I like this pick because of how good Utah's offense has looked. Cooley, Schmaltz, Keller, & Guenther have been outstanding thus far, but the depth is arguably more impressive. 15/18 active roster skaters have points through 3 games, and when you can rely on your 3rd & 4th lines to provide scoring, as well as a proficient D-Core, solid goaltending, and something to prove, I have a lot confidence in this Mammoth team to leave New Jersey with a win.

9 games on the board tonight. Model V2 has a few spots where the win probability differs quite a bit from the current market.

Best positive EV spots right now:

• Nashville +133 | Model: 53.1% | EV: +23.6%
• LA Kings +106 | Model: 59.8% | EV: +23.2%
• Seattle +150 | Model: 47.0% | EV: +17.4%
• NY Islanders +130 | Model: 47.4% | EV: +9.1%
• Utah +115 | Model: 49.9% | EV: +7.2%
• Ottawa -104 | Model: 54.2% | EV: +6.3%

The two that stand out most to me are Nashville as a slight model favourite while getting +133, and LA at nearly 60% while still available at plus money.

Still very early in the season, so I'm interested to see how these probabilities shift as this year's team data starts replacing more of the preseason/previous-season information.

Full board with win probabilities, odds, EV and matchup details:
https://www.playerwon.ca/betting/daily-edge-board/

YESTERDAY RESULTS

Detroit Red Wings ML vs. Winnipeg Jets (L)

Seattle Kraken ML vs. Calgary Flames (W)

Vegas Golden Knights ML vs. Vancouver Canucks (W)

Overall record: 22-17

TODAY'S PICKS:

Tampa Bay Lightning ML vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Pittsburgh Penguins ML vs. Winnipeg Jets

Dallas Stars ML vs. San Jose Sharks

picks by the otterline

Great win last night by the Mammoth. Back-to-back to manage in NY, but with an odd of +120, too attractive for me. I bet the Utah Mammoth to win at +120. New York has some serious difficulty at homa last season. Despite a good win vs Tampa last week, I want to see more at home. Rangers scored 238 goals last season, only 104 at the MSG

Last night was another great one personally. 4-1 and for the season with the free picks tah I put on my youtube, its 23-6. +16 units!
4 bets placed today. Details on bl studio if interested.

Vegas vs Vancouver : Vegas -1.5. Got it at +115

H2H last season. Also, Vancouver only 9 wins at home in 41 games in 25-26.

https://preview.redd.it/wkkxq79y1jth1.png?width=264&format=png&auto=webp&s=8296cf7a75ac3491360dcf4471cc9b4684c46018

Four games tonight. No teams above 60% in my V2 model, but a few prices stand out.

Positive EV based on the model and odds shown:

• Sharks +173: 49.1% win probability, +34.1% EV
• Flyers +191: 41.2%, +20.0% EV
• Jets +155: 40.6%, +3.6% EV
• Bruins +104: 50.7%, +3.4% EV

Model favourites:
Tampa Bay 58.8%
Boston 50.7%
Pittsburgh 59.4%
Dallas 50.9%

San Jose is the biggest gap between my model and the market today. Boston and Dallas are essentially coin flips.

Still early in the season, so I’m interested to see how these projections settle as more games are played.

Full board and matchup details:
https://www.playerwon.ca/betting/daily-edge-board/

Who are you taking tonight?

https://preview.redd.it/dnxnnxfenpth1.png?width=865&format=png&auto=webp&s=318165d754e8aaf23e5839f8d060183dd11af096

YESTERDAY RESULTS

Buffalo Sabres ML vs. Chicago Blackhawks (W)

Ottawa Senators ML vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (W)

Tampa Bay Lightning ML vs. Washington Capitals (W)

Overall record: 19-15

TODAY'S PICKS:

Detroit Red Wings ML vs. Winnipeg Jets

Seattle Kraken ML vs. Calgary Flames

Vegas Golden Knights ML vs. Vancouver Canucks

picks by the otterline