Spell Tome Farming Calculations
I am comparing two locations that are great for farming spell tomes, Swampgas Chasm and Ceyatatar. At the end of each dungeon, there is a boss level chest that is near the exit, meaning that if I enter from that bak exit, I can quickly loot that chest and possibly get a tome. I want to calculate the exact probability of getting a tome in either location.
In Swampgas Chasm, there are two 50% chances that a scroll spawns.
In Ceyatatar, there is a 100% chance for one scroll to spawn and a 25% chance for a second.
When a scroll does spawn, it then has a 25% chance to turn into a spell tome. That is what I'm looking for.
Here is the link to a spreadsheet I made to help make my calculations, It is free for anyone to edit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-PbD3deTM5X4UctwS49rikF4Iwbq2dR3DphmouTcrbQ/edit?usp=sharing
I went over this with my statistics professor and we though that the 1/64 chance that two tomes spawn (Shown as TT in the table) were not accounted for in the probability calculated, so we added a 1/64 additional chance to both cases. With this thought, we ended with 32.8125% chance at Ceyatatar and 26.5625% chance at Swampgas Chasm. After making both tables here and running the probability calculations again, that assumption about the double tome outcome was wrong.
Because of us coming up with a different answer than what I started with, and later finding out that it was wrong, I am kind of unsure if that answer is correct and want it checked.