Fannie Mae's projected performance in the hypothetical severely adverse scenario for 2026 continued to demonstrate the positive effects of the company's robust underwriting and risk-management practices and is a strong indicator of our ability to accomplish our mission and provide liquidity to the U.S. mortgage market in all economic cycles.
Oksenholt Capital making moves...
Sold $FNMA, bought hundreds of thousands of $FMCC shares. Perhaps after seeing Jon's analysis, @michaeljburry decided to double down... but in a bold move of confidence, @JonOksenholt bolstered his Freddie Mac position to ensure a leg up on Burry.
This is a calculated, measured, and conviction- based trade that - if @POTUS follows through with his promises made, and @SecScottBessent can figure out how to monetize - will be a generational move.
...........
Jon Oksenholt:
This week I bought several hundred thousand $FMCC shares.
@FreddieMac shareholders will soon learn why I’m their 3rd best friend (after @realDonaldTrump & @pulte )
While everyone else has been asleep at the wheel, I haven’t..
$FMCC $FMCKJ $FNMAS $FNMAT
Ps - some of the reasons for my decision include:
I’m happy with the tremendous progress that has been made
I couldn’t stand the thought of @michaeljburry possibly owning more $fmcc than me
From Nico on X:
TIME TO BUY: FANNIE MAE (FNMA) – THE SLEEPING GIANT IS WAKING UP
Fellow Investors Update;
The opportunity in front of us is rare, asymmetric, and massively mispriced. Fannie Mae (FNMA) is trading at pennies on the dollar while sitting on the foundation of the entire U.S. housing finance system. Together with Freddie Mac, Fannie and Freddie account for roughly 75% of all U.S. mortgages — guaranteeing and enabling the vast majority of home loans in America. With over $4.5 trillion in mortgage-backed securities under management and a central role in home ownership for millions, Fannie Mae is not a speculative bet — it’s a future cash-flow machine trapped in conservatorship, for now.
Here’s why it’s time to load up before Wall Street wakes up:
Massive Intrinsic Value, Insanely Undervalued
Fannie Mae generates billions in net income annually, yet the common stock trades like it’s worthless. This is deep value in plain sight. Based on core earnings power and book value, fair market valuations could easily justify a 10x–20x return from current levels once the GSE exits conservatorship.
Conservatorship Exit Is No Longer “If” — It’s “When”
The political and legal tides are shifting. Stakeholders and courts are pushing for resolution, and the government already holds 79.9% in warrants—meaning it stands to benefit more from a rising share price than from further dilution or SPS overreach. Treasury can no longer justify dragging out a process that destroys long-term value.
Legal and Investor Pressure is Reaching Critical Mass
Lawsuits are gaining momentum. Shareholders are no longer passive—they’re organized, vocal, and winning key arguments in court. The landmark Lamberth victory delivered over $600 million (later finalized near $812 million including interest) for shareholders, and the D.C. Circuit recently affirmed that award. Investor mistreatment is becoming a political liability, especially when private capital is needed to support housing finance stability.
ERCF Capital Relief = Faster Path to Recapitalization
Recent amendments and reductions under the Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework (ERCF) have lowered key risk weights, buffers, and requirements on CRT exposures and other assets. This eases the capital rebuild, accelerates retained earnings growth, and brings a viable exit from conservatorship closer.
Tailwinds in the Housing Market
Despite short-term rates volatility, the U.S. housing market remains structurally strong. Fannie Mae (with Freddie) benefits from guaranteed demand for its services across ~75% of the mortgage market, making its earnings power not only predictable but growing. In any normalized environment, this stock should never be trading at sub-$10 levels.
Asymmetric Risk/Reward
What’s the real downside? You’re buying a company with a massive asset base and recurring earnings for less than a small-cap tech startup. The upside? 10x+ if GSE reform and recap happens. Even a partial win (warrant settlement, SPS resolution, ERCF-driven capital progress, or political deal) could re-rate the stock by multiples.
Bottom Line:
FNMA is not a trade — it’s a conviction buy. The time to own it is before headlines confirm what smart investors already see. Institutions aren’t here yet. That’s your edge. Accumulate before clarity comes, because when it does, this stock won’t be under$25 - it’ll be on the path to full valuation.
Back up the truck. $FNMA is waking up.
Sincerely,
A Believer in Justice, Value, and Once-in-a-Generation Trades
-----------------------
My response:
Fannie and Freddie are the real deal, with massive scale in the trillions (total assets were ~$4.33 trillion as of June), steady multi-billion-dollar earnings every quarter, Fannie's net worth climbing past $100 billion, and a central role in a big chunk of the U.S. conventional mortgage market. They’re retaining earnings under the current rules, getting some helpful tweaks to the capital framework, and just got that Lamberth award affirmed (jury awarded damages related to the net-worth sweep, and D.C. Circuit affirmed the judgment in July), which shows real progress and a bit of pressure for accountability.
That sets up an interesting asymmetric opportunity. The stock’s trading where it is largely because of years of being subordinated and stuck in policy limbo, not because the earnings power isn’t there. If they find a sensible way to handle the senior preferred, the warrants, the capital needs, and maybe a limited public offering or eventual exit, the residual common equity could re-rate in a meaningful way. Solid housing demand and the system’s need for private capital are also working in its favor.
Still, there's reason for caution... Up-list or exit is ultimately a political and regulatory process with no set timeline or guaranteed terms. Common shareholders sit behind that big senior preferred liquidation preference and the 79.9% warrants, a matter that's still unresolved. And as an OTC stock tied to Washington, liquidity and volatility stay high.
Size any position carefully, treat it as a special situation that depends on policy rather than a straightforward operating compounder, and keep an eye on the capital numbers, what FHFA and Treasury do next, and any concrete plans for recapitalization or release. There’s real upside if things move in a constructive direction, but the downside protection is limited until the capital structure gets clarified. This isn’t advice, but a balanced take on the setup.
I'm less cautious than I advise others to be; $FNMA and $FMCC are the two largest single-stock positions in my portfolio.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saga participants: keep your eye on the volume, not on the share price.
SEC filings show 1,158,087,567 FNMA shares outstanding and 650,059,553 FMCC shares outstanding.
Ignoring the unexercised warrants, with FNMA trading at a 90 day average of 5,891,874 shares, and FMCC trading 3,005,225, that means the moving volume for FNMA is 0.51% and FMCC is 0.46% of total available shares.
For those who prefer to use the "with exercised warrants" numbers, this equates to about 0.1% of outstanding FNMA shares and 0.093% for FMCC. I wouldn't use these as a measure of market sentiment, as these include hypothetical "locked" shares.
FNMA:
Highest volume day in the past year: March 30, 2026 — 39,768,878 shares
Lowest volume day: December 24, 2025 — 661,802 shares
FMCC: Highest volume day: March 30, 2026 — 15,484,120 shares
Lowest volume day: December 24, 2025 — 479,600 shares
Watch the volume. What does it say?
How many SHARES of Fannie and Freddie (FNMA and FMCC) do you hold?
On a Reddit forum for investors in Fannie and Freddie, some seem dejected.
“Hate to say it, but Trump has moved on from F2,” read one post this week after Pulte’s new appointment.
“I regret not selling about a year ago when the stock was pumping just to make a quick return,” another said.
I joined the United States Air Force in June 2002. I did not open my TSP account until April 4, 2006 — nearly four years later. That is four years of contributions I never made, and four years of compounding I simply forfeited out of ignorance - we didn't talk about money in my first shop. If this story has a prologue, it is this: start as early as you possibly can. I did not, and I have thought about those lost years ever since.
When I finally did start, on April 4, 2006, I was a Senior Airman / E-4 with a base pay of $1,842 a month and a TSP balance of $460. That was my starting line.
Progress in those early years was real but slow. A promotion to Staff Sergeant / E-5 in August 2006 bumped my pay to $2,124 a month and added more fuel to each contribution. The account crossed $10,000, then $15,000, then pushed toward $20,000 as the market cooperated.
Then the 2008 financial crisis arrived. From a peak of $23,607 in mid-2008, the account fell to $18,762 by March 2009 — roughly a 20% haircut. I was lucky in one respect: the balance was small enough that the absolute dollar loss was manageable. More importantly, I held. I kept contributing into a falling market and watched the account rocket back past $25,000 by April 2009 and close the year near $40,000. My first real lesson: a crash is only permanent if you sell.
June 30, 2010 brought a promotion to Technical Sergeant / E-6 and pay of $3,051 a month. With a larger base and the bull market running, the account crossed $50,000 for the first time that August and closed 2010 at $64,619. The compounding engine was starting to hum. This was about the time I also began investing in a personal investment portfolio outside the TSP.
By early 2012 the account was in the $80,000s, and on September 7, 2012 it crossed $100,700. Six figures. Nearly six and a half years after I started, I had my first landmark.
My records show that at some point before August 2, 2012, I had been contributing at 40% of my base pay (stationed in Italy, deployed to Afghanistan) before pulling back to 20%. Over the following eighteen months I adjusted that dial repeatedly: up to 30% in February 2013, back to 20% in September, and down to 5% by December 2013 - these upward adjustments correlate with deployments. The account closed 2013 at $148,077.
June 3, 2014: promoted to Master Sergeant / E-7. Base pay: $3,914 a month. TSP balance: $158,654.
On June 30, 2014 I recorded a note I still track: "From inception until this day: Contributions = $91,394. % increase = 42.9%." The market had turned $91,394 of my own money into $160,080. A 43% bonus, earned simply by leaving the account alone. That note rewired how I thought about investing. I was not just saving; I was deploying capital into a machine that grew it while I slept.
In August 2014 I shifted into a 25% S-Fund / 75% C-Fund allocation — a deliberate move toward index-heavy equity exposure that would serve me well for years.
Two things happened in 2016 that permanently altered the account's trajectory.
First, in August 2016, with the balance at $197,210, I stopped Traditional TSP contributions entirely and redirected them to Roth TSP. Pay taxes now, not later. It felt counterintuitive to "pause" the Traditional balance right at the doorstep of $200,000, but the long-term math was sound.
Second — and nothing else in this story comes close — on November 18, 2016, I was commissioned as a Second Lieutenant / O-1E. Fourteen years after enlisting, I crossed from the enlisted ranks into the officer corps. The TSP balance that day: $205,850.
My March 2017 records include an updated note: "From inception until 31 Mar 17: Contributions = $115,012. % of increase = 49.66%." The market had added nearly 50% on top of every dollar I had ever put in. The account stood at $228,470 and was building momentum.
The account pushed through $300,000 for the first time on September 21, 2018 — then the fourth quarter of 2018 punished it, erasing more than $50,000 in three months and dragging it back to $246,474 by December. My response: raise contributions to 20% on December 28 and keep buying. By late 2019, fully recovered and then some, the account stood at $350,074.
Few things mattered more than what I did in March 2020.
COVID-19 collapsed the market. The TSP fell from $364,543 in mid-February to $245,033 by March 20 — a loss of roughly $120,000 in five weeks. On March 2, as the market was still in free fall, I raised my TSP contribution to 60%. I was going to load up at the bottom even if it hurt.
It hurt, but it was the right call. By April, the recovery was underway. By summer the account was back in the $380,000s, and by December 31 it closed at $452,772 — up more than $100,000 from the COVID low and a record high by a wide margin. The 60% contribution period was brief, but the shares I bought near the bottom powered years of subsequent growth.
2021 was a gift. The account crossed $500,000 in the spring, reached $584,865 by November, and closed the year at $579,114 — a single-year gain of more than $125,000. I raised contributions to 22%, then 25% in January 2022.
2022 took most of that back. Inflation and rising rates dragged the TSP from $527,777 in January to a low of $445,265 by October. I held at 25% contributions throughout and let the dip accumulate shares. By year-end the account had partially recovered to $479,263 — essentially flat from January. A grinding, difficult year saved by discipline.
The recovery accelerated through 2023 and 2024. The account climbed from $486,682 in January 2023 through the $600,000s and into the $700,000s by mid-2024. By late 2024 it was closing in on $800,000, reaching $780,816 on December 30.
In January 2025 I lowered contributions to 5% — my personal investment portfolio outside the TSP had outpaced my TSP value, and I was rebalancing priorities. The TSP itself was at $809,026 and doing the work on its own.
Then came the tariffs.
Trade policy uncertainty in early 2025 hammered markets hard. The account fell from $809,026 to $662,705 by April 4, 2025 — another $150,000 erased in a matter of weeks. I had seen this movie before. I held. By July the account was past $832,000. By fall it was approaching $895,000. Same story, same answer, same result.
The final approach...
May 8: $990,655. May 15: $983,413 — a small, cruel dip. May 22: $999,537. One paycheck away from twenty years of waiting.
May 29, 2026: $1,018,034.
Twenty years, one month, and twenty-five days after I sat down with $460 and a Senior Airman's dream. I contributed through promotions, pay cuts, crashes, pandemics, and tariff wars. I adjusted my contribution rate more times than I care to count. I switched from Traditional to Roth. I changed fund allocations. I commissioned as an officer.
Through all of it, the account compounded. My total personal contributions over the life of the account were somewhere in the neighborhood of $210,000. The market, time, and compounding produced the rest — turning that into more than a million dollars.
The lesson has never changed: the account doesn't care about your feelings. It only knows what you actually did. What I actually did, for twenty years, was hold and increase contributions when others were exiting the market.
I just wish I had started in 2002. At 10% (C-Fund historical average), those 4 lost years cost roughly $472,000 in foregone compounding — nearly half a million dollars that simply vanished due to a delayed start. At the more conservative 7%, the delta is still around $316,000. At an aggressive 12%, it climbs past $583,000. You get the point. Start now, whenever now is.
Trump wants to boost Spirit Airlines, likely to the benefit of U.S. taxpayers (and investors of $FLYYQ as it sits in OTC markets like $FNMA and $FMCC).
The main elements of his plan as it stands right now
$500 million financing package: Advanced negotiations for a government-backed loan (more senior than existing creditor claims). This would provide immediate liquidity to keep operations running and allow Spirit to emerge from bankruptcy.
Government equity stake (up to 90%): In return for the funding, the U.S. would receive warrants convertible into a massive ownership position in the restructured Spirit (potentially majority or near-total control). Some describe this as the government effectively “buying” the airline.
Defense Production Act (DPA) as legal vehicle: The administration is exploring invoking this wartime authority to justify the intervention on national-security grounds. Part of the rationale includes using Spirit’s fleet (or excess capacity) for military transport of troops, cargo, or other defense missions. However, whether this pathway is used, I see it less likely to be actively employed.
Trump has repeatedly said the government should “help that one out,” “bail it out or just buy it” at the “right price,” and then “sell it for a profit when the price of oil goes down.” He cited job preservation and called it a good deal for taxpayers.
Similar to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saga, the Intel stake, U.S. Steel, and others, this trade has incredible potential as Spirit exits bankruptcy. Further, as oil prices drop, revenues grow and value climbs.
DYOR, but this one's set to take off.
