u/HappyAnimalCracker

This post is for home bakers in this forum. It would be savvy to stock up on baking flour now in August.

Weedsy stuff

The flour currently on retail shelves is made from last year's harvest. Store shelf prices right now aren't affected yet by the new prices on this year's harvest. That's been working its way through the commodities markets and wholesale buyers. You can expect higher prices next month.

How much will retail prices jump? Commodities market prices on wheat futures have risen by 35% to 40% compared to last year. Although retail prices may not leap by as much when this year's wheat crop comes out of the mills and reaches store shelves, you can give your expectations a rough calibration based on the commodities numbers. Expect a sticker shock.

This particular forum limits outgoing links, so by way of verification here's a link to a USDA report on the wheat outlook published in mid-July. The lede on the PDF downloadable there includes the statement, "overall U.S. wheat production forecast down 23 percent year over year, all classes of wheat are showing declines."

It goes on to specify crop reductions for specific categories. Particularly hard hit is the type of wheat used to make all purpose flour. Quoting:

> "Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, usually the largest class of U.S. production, is forecast to have its smallest crop since 1957/58."

Some other types of wheat such as durum (used to make pasta) are impacted less severely. Averaging across all wheat varieties, in 2026 the United States has had its worst wheat harvest in more than 50 years. Basically, there wasn't enough fertilizer available earlier this year due to supply chain issues. So fewer acres got planted than usual, the wheat which did get planted didn't get as much fertilizer as usual, and then a drought hit the Midwest.

Unfortunately, the international situation can't be expected to fully compensate for a US shortfall this severe. Two of the other top ten wheat exporting countries--Russia and Ukraine--are both expected to export less wheat this year due to wartime impacts on production. Together, the US, Russia, and Ukraine accounted for about 30% of last year's international wheat exports.

So what does this mean to you as a consumer?

If you're a home baker, the price of all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour on store shelves right now is the lowest it's going to be until a better wheat harvest comes in. That would be 6 to 12 months in the future. So if you're a savvy shopper, estimate your use and your storage capacity and stock up accordingly.

If you aren't a home baker, then you are likely to see product reformulations and shrinkflation on wheat-based products in the near future. You can mitigate the impact on your food costs by changing your cooking habits. It would be savvy to try new potato dishes, to do more stir fried meals with rice on the side, or to make tamales.

To be clear, I'm not Chicken Little and the sky is not falling. That said, it's useful to be a step ahead of the game when a significant agricultural event is getting ready to hit the retail market. A year ago I kind of kicked myself for not posting a heads up when bird flu caused farmers to cull flocks and the price of eggs jumped for a while. The price of eggs has since come back down as the supply returned to normal. This wheat shortage isn't the end of the world. Yet if you've wanted to teach yourself how to make pad Thai then this is an apt time to pick up the new skill.

All the best to you and yours. Shop smart.

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(edit)

In response to questions, the two principal factors with storing flour are whole wheat vs. white flour and protecting flour from vermin.

While whole wheat flour is more nutritious than white flour, the wheat germ in whole wheat contains oils that have a shelf life at room temperature of 6 to 12 months. That shelf life can be extended by storing it frozen.

White flour has a longer shelf life. Some baking enthusiasts say they taste a difference after more than 1-2 years, yet many people consider all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour to have basically indefinite storage times.

So while I don't advocate hoarding, all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour ought to be good at room temperature until a better harvest comes in. If you stock up on whole wheat flour this month, then you might want to divide your supply into two parts and freeze the half you don't use right away.

A bigger issue is keeping your flour safe from rodents and insects. Food safe 5 gallon buckets are your friends. If you know someone who works in a commercial kitchen such as a restaurant or a cafeteria, then you may be able to get used 5 gallon buckets for free. Clean them out, dry them thoroughly, and perhaps add a plastic liner before storing flour. Then keep your flour buckets in a cool dry closet or cabinet.

An outbreak of infections from the Cyclospora parasite has impacted 145 people. The source of the parasite has not yet been determined.

Patients have been reported by 17 states. These people became sick after eating food in the United States and did not report any travel during the 14 days before they got sick.

Sick people ranged in age from 5 to 86 years, with a median age of 42. The median illness onset date was May 13, with a range of May 1 to June 6. Of 145 people with information available, 20 were hospitalized. No deaths have been reported.

Local, state, and federal public health authorities are investigating several clusters of cases in more than one state. Investigations to identify potential sources are ongoing.

The map shows where the 145 people with cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States since May 1, 2026, lived. Cyclosporiasis cases may not be limited to these states with known cases.

The true number of people sick with cyclosporiasis is likely higher than the number reported. This is because some people recover without medical care and are not tested for Cyclospora.

Cyclosporiasis is a nationally notifiable disease and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases. [...]

Cyclospora is a type of protozoa, which is a tiny, single-celled organism. It is transmitted when people somehow ingest contaminated feces, typically through contaminated food or water. It can be spread only through human waste, unlike E. coli and salmonella, which can also be spread from animal fecal matter.

Previous U.S. outbreaks of cyclosporiasis have been linked to various types of fresh produce, including basil, cilantro, mesclun lettuce, raspberries, and snow peas.

Food safety experts say there's no evidence that washing the produce will remove the parasite.

A lot of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic are headed for 5-7 straight days of 90+ weather, with a lot of areas forecasted for 95-100F. Heat indexes will be well over 100. This is going to be a serious test for the BES, as equipment typically begins to fail and overheat on the 3rd or 4th day of an event like this because load will be very high and there won't be opportunities for equipment to cool down overnight.

Good luck to all the operators, RCs/BAs, engineers, etc. Hopefully you get some quiet and easy Conservative Operations shifts, but I'm expecting some areas (Baltimore/Philadelphia I'm looking at you) to experience overloads and reliability issues. PJM will probably be issuing a number of Warnings and Actions this coming week, but hopefully there won't be any major EEAs.