Excerpts:

Where will Broadcom's stock be in 2032?

Broadcom's business could transform as sales of its custom AI chips soar. From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow at CAGRs of 62% and 63%, respectively. Those are stellar growth rates for a stock that trades at 14 times next year's adjusted EBITDA. 

According to Market Research Future, the global AI market could expand at a 38.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, while the global AI chip market could grow at a 33.7% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. If Broadcom keeps up with those secular trends, its stock could soar even higher.

If Broadcom matches Wall Street's expectations through fiscal 2028, grows its adjusted EBITDA at a 30% CAGR through fiscal 2033, and trades at a more generous 25 times its forward adjusted EBITDA, its stock could rise nearly tenfold by 2032 and turn a $5,000 investment into over $50,000.

Excerpts:

OpenAI Records 20 Cents Where Anthropic Records a Dollar

The technical accounting distinction is precise. Under ASC 606 — the United States accounting standard that governs when and how revenue is recognized — a company records the gross value of a transaction when it acts as the "principal": the party primarily responsible for delivering the product and bearing the risk of the transaction. It records only its net share — the amount it actually retains after paying partners — when it acts as an "agent."

OpenAI and Anthropic take opposite positions on this question when customers buy AI access through cloud marketplaces.

When a customer purchases $1 worth of tokens through Microsoft Azure, OpenAI records only its roughly 20-cent share of that transaction as revenue — Microsoft keeps the remainder. Anthropic, by contrast, records the full $1 as top-line revenue, then lists the cloud partner's cut as a cost of sales, reasoning that Anthropic is the principal in the transaction regardless of which marketplace delivered it.

Company to Highlight OCP Rack-Based Innovations Enabling Scale-Up, Scale-Out, and Scale-Across Networks Across AI Clusters

Excerpts:

Featured innovations include Tomahawk^(®) 6, Tomahawk Ultra, and Jericho 4 Ethernet switches, the Thor Ultra 800G and Thor 2 400G AI Ethernet NICs, and Broadcom's third-generation TH6-Davisson Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — a portfolio built to meet the exponential bandwidth demands of frontier AI models as they grow in scale and complexity.

"Together, the OCP Community and Broadcom have a long history of driving computing at massive scale, and this year’s event theme—'Scaling Innovation for the AI Era'—underscores the growing importance of open collaboration. AI infrastructure demands are scaling faster than anything our industry has seen, and Ethernet is the foundation that makes that growth sustainable. With our industry-leading portfolio of networking solutions and new breakthroughs in integrated optics, Broadcom is giving AI labs, hyperscalers and cloud providers the bandwidth and power efficiency they need to scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across next-generation AI clusters,” said Charlie Kawwas, Ph. D., president, Semiconductor Solutions Group, Broadcom.

Excerpts:

KEY POINTS

• Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator partner, and it's growing extremely quickly.
• There are multiple reasons why custom chips are an important factor in the future of AI.

The biggest bottleneck in the AI build-out

With limited capital, hyperscalers must allocate it to assets with the highest potential return on investment. To be sure, there's a baseline demand for GPUs, which are often better for training or mixed-workload tasks. However, custom silicon offers better power-to-performance ratios and faster inference speeds while requiring less upfront capital. As a result, custom silicon can exhibit higher returns on capital.

That was crystalized in a recent interview given by Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian. He said the payback period on its AI servers is less than two years, but on Google's own silicon, it's less than half that. If the useful life of an AI server is six years, that increases the return on investment from about 200% to about 500%. It also reduces the risk of a slowdown in compute demand through smaller capital outlays and shorter payback periods.

Keeping inference costs low

There's a reason Anthropic and OpenAI are designing their own chips as well. They see the value in Alphabet's full-stack business model, where it designs the custom silicon that its large language models run on. Google Gemini offers a very low price per token for frontier models, and Kurian says that's entirely because it runs on Google's TPU chips on Google Cloud.

As more businesses use AI for more tasks and agentic AI becomes increasingly useful, token costs will play a significant role in determining which model enterprises choose. Being able to offer competitive pricing with Google will require OpenAI, Anthropic, and other LLM developers to use the most efficient chips available. More often than not, that will mean running most of their compute on custom silicon.

That further tilts the scales in favor of XPUs, as not only can they provide a higher return on invested capital for hyperscalers selling access, but they can also reduce the biggest ongoing cost for frontier labs (and, by extension, other enterprises).

Will XPUs overtake GPUs?

Nvidia's data center business exited the second quarter at a $356 billion run rate. That's absolutely massive, more than 4 times the size of Broadcom's XPU business.

But XPU adoption is growing faster, and the trend favors continued growth.

Earlier this year, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company would add more custom silicon servers to its data centers than Nvidia GPUs. Comments from Kurian, as well as Microsoftexecutives, suggest they're also leaning heavily toward adding more custom silicon than GPUs.

By volume, XPUs already seem to be winning the race among Nvidia's biggest customers, and that lead should continue to expand over the next few years. However, considering XPUs garner lower prices than GPUs, it will be a long time before revenue catches up. That shouldn't matter to investors, though, as prices should reflect the business's future growth. While Broadcom trades at a premium to Nvidia based on future earnings, that premium may be worth paying, considering the growth outlook for custom silicon.

Freightos Weekly Update - October 6, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2%.

Analysis:

Some recent estimations have Middle East crude oil exports – via the Strait of Hormuz and alternatives – approaching pre-war levels, with crude prices easing moderately. For now though, bunker prices remain about level with the last few weeks, as increased crude volumes, if sustained, may take time to translate into lower prices for refined products.

Increased Saudi crude flows via the southern Red Sea account for part of this volume recovery, with Saudi-backed forces attempting to recapture areas on the Yemeni coast of the Bab el Mandeb Strait recently seized by the Houthis. Even with elevated tension in the region container carriers continue to gradually increase Red Sea traffic, with the Premier Alliance – the last holdout among the three alliances and MSC – announcing some services will resume Red Sea transits this month.

The increase in effective capacity from more vessels taking the shorter route is likely one contributor to container rates sliding since mid-July on Asia - Europe lanes. Prices dipped 2-3% last week to $3,260/FEU to N. Europe and $3,555/FEU to the Mediterranean, with rates level so far this week over the Golden Week holiday as carriers have blanked sailings during this low demand stretch.

The sharper increase in Red Sea sailings for Asia - Mediterranean services, as well as continued challenges with congestion at some N. Europe hubs for Asia - N. Europe volumes, may explain why rates to the Mediterranean – even as Far East congestion, though improving, continues to tie up capacity – have slid back to pre-peak season levels. Asia - N. Europe prices meanwhile, remain about $400/FEU higher than back in mid-May.

Transpacific container rates decreased 3% to the West Coast last week to $8,322/FEU while East Coast prices were level at $9,600/FEU. Increased blanked sailing over the Golden Week period may help keep prices stable in the near term. Increases in blanked sailings as well as backlogs from nearly three months of weather-related disruptions at major ports in China may keep the transpacific rate floor quite elevated even as we enter what is normally a couple months of low demand post-peak season and pre-Lunar New Year rush.

Excerpts:

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) has agreed to provide Anthropic with up to $42 billion in financing to support the artificial intelligence company’s infrastructure expansion, according to details from Anthropic’s IPO prospectus reported by Reuters.

The financing would be provided through convertible notes and is designed to cover approximately one-third of Anthropic’s $125.2 billion five-year agreement for tensor processing unit (TPU) computing capacity.

Under the agreement, Broadcom has the option to bring in a financing partner, and the convertible notes could potentially be converted into equity in Anthropic.

Freightos Weekly Update - September 30, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 9%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 7%.

Analysis:

Last week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Washington yielded a two month extension of last year’s US-China trade truce which was set to expire on November 10th, mutual tariff reductions on some imports, and plans for two more meetings between the leaders before the end of the year. This deescalation likely also postpones US port call fees on China-linked vessels, though the USTR has not issued an official deferral just yet.

The US Treasury Secretary said the US only agreed to two months because China still needs to fulfill some of its earlier commitments to purchase US agricultural goods. This stance may imply expectations for another extension once progress is made on those purchases.

The sides will reduce tariffs on $30B worth of counterpart imports to most-favored-nation levels, pending the necessary legal procedures to put these changes into effect. Though the reduction is modest in the context of the more than $400B of total China-US trade, this news will be welcomed by US importers and consumers of the nearly 80 affected product entries, with toys as the largest category by value. China’s list of more than 1,600 entries comprises mostly agricultural products and commodities.

Transpacific container rates ticked up to the West Coast last week to $8,400/FEU, a new high for the year, with East Coast prices level at about $9,600/FEU, $200/FEU lower than its peak in late August, as resilient demand has kept pressure on rates to close the month.

Demand is likely to cool as we get past Golden Week and peak season finally ends, but carriers have increased blanked sailings over the holiday period and into late October. Far East congestion remains a major drain on available capacity, and likely one factor to some carriers reducing allocations for some contracted forwarders.

Sea Intelligence estimates that port congestion is tying up more than 8% of global capacity, and could take up to ten months to completely unwind. We could therefore expect congestion – together with higher fuel costs from the Hormuz closure – to contribute to an elevated rate floor even during low demand stretches, and a higher baseline from which prices will climb when demand increases again ahead of Lunar New Year.

Better than expected rainfall and water levels in Panama has led to some good news for transpacific shippers to the East Coast. The Panama Canal Authority will restore daily Neopanamax transits to the normal ten, and increase maximum draft levels to 49 feet in mid-October, after removing a daily transit and reducing the draft by a foot in late August. Improved conditions now, however, do not mean that restrictions won’t be introduced in the coming months if the expected El Nino negatively impacts the rainy season that normally lasts into January.

Asia - Europe container rates continued to ease last week as demand likely continues to cool and carriers increase effective capacity through gradual increases in Red Sea transits. Asia - N. Europe prices fell 9% to about $3,400/FEU and rates to the Mediterranean decreased 7% to $3,600/FEU. Despite these trends some carriers are announcing rate increases for late October.

Even with the $3K - $4k/FEU drop in spot prices since rates peaked in July, prices on these lanes remain about 50% higher than a year ago as Far East congestion, backlogs at some N. Europe hubs, and fuel surcharges keep the rate floor elevated on these lanes as well.

Excerpt:

Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI are due to present the revisions in detail within the next 45 days.

Freightos Weekly Update - September 15, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 12%.

Analysis:

The Houthis – previously in control of the elevated area miles from the Red Sea – recently seized a strategic port and island directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint. This advance, together with last week’s attack on a key Saudi pipeline, marks yet another escalation in Iran-backed steps to threaten energy markets.

Some experts watching oil and bunker fuel prices climb back to May levels, see these recent developments as further evidence that strategies which reduced energy prices from initial war-time highs – mostly by drawing from reserves – are wearing thin and could now lead to an actual fuel crisis.

The Houthis had no difficulty attacking and deterring Red Sea traffic before they took control of the coastal region, but their recent gains mark a solidification of control and an escalation of the maritime threat. Nonetheless – and despite some shipper objections – container carriers continue to increase Suez Canal and southern Red Sea transits.

According to Sea Intelligence estimates, more than a quarter of Asia-Europe capacity will sail via the Red Sea in September, with 35% of Asia - Mediterranean headhaul capacity and 50% to 60% of backhauls passing through the Suez. Asia - N. Europe capacity is returning at a slower pace with 6% of headhaul and 30% of backhaul being restored so far.

War-driven higher fuel costs, and congestion at both Far East origin ports – which may keep dismal on-time rates and backlogs a factor post Golden Week and well into October – and N. Europe hubs may be changing carrier calculus for a Red Sea return. The added speed and effective capacity the new routes provide may already be responsible – together with easing, post-peak demand – for container rate decreases on these lanes.

Asia - N. Europe prices fell 3% to about $4,300/FEU last week while Asia - Mediterranean rates dropped 12% to $4,200/FEU. Daily rates on both lanes have eased to about $3,800/FEU so far this week. The sharper drop for Asia - Mediterranean prices – down $3,000/FEU from a July peak compared to $2,000/FEU for N. Europe rates – may reflect the higher rate of Red Sea capacity restoration on this lane. That, even with demand reductions and Red Sea transits, prices on these lanes remain respectively more than 20% and 50% higher than before peak season began in mid-May points to the role congestion continues to play in container rate dynamics.

Transpacific container rates meanwhile ticked up last week, remaining at peak levels as demand strength – together with Far East congestion – is keeping pressure on spot prices. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report projects October arrivals to fall 9% compared to September, with a further drop in November, suggesting that demand is already easing and should ease further soon. Port congestion – as well as blanked sailings over the holiday stretch – could nonetheless mean rates will stay quite elevated even as demand cools. While most carriers do not seem to be planning October increases, CMA CGM announced sharp PSSs especially for S. Asia - US lanes.

The Key Question For AVGO Investors

One of the most important questions investors should ask when Broadcom CEO Hock Tan provides an unusually ambitious long-term forecast is:

Does Broadcom have a history of actually delivering on management guidance?

The answer is important because Hock Tan has now given investors something Broadcom historically has been relatively conservative about providing:

A multi-year AI semiconductor revenue trajectory extending through fiscal 2028.

During the Q3 FY2026 earnings call, management laid out:

FY2026 AI Semiconductor Revenue: Approximately $58 Billion

FY2027 AI Semiconductor Revenue: Approximately $115 Billion

FY2028 AI Semiconductor Revenue: Approximately $230 Billion

And management specifically stated that the supply required to support those targets has been secured.

Hock Tan also stated that Broadcom is:

“very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.”

That makes Broadcom's historical guidance record particularly relevant.

First: A Critical Distinction About Broadcom Guidance

It would be inaccurate to say that Broadcom has beaten every piece of guidance it has ever provided.

It has not.

For example, Broadcom originally forecast approximately $24.5 billion of FY2019 revenue, subsequently reduced that forecast to approximately $22.5 billion following the Huawei export restrictions and resulting deterioration in semiconductor demand, and ultimately reported $22.597 billion of FY2019 revenue.

So Broadcom missed the original FY2019 forecast, but essentially delivered the subsequently revised forecast.

Similarly, Broadcom initially provided approximately $25 billion ± $500 million of FY2020 revenue guidance, but withdrew its full-year guidance during the COVID-19 pandemic because visibility had deteriorated dramatically. Broadcom ultimately reported $23.888 billion of FY2020 revenue.

Therefore, the correct conclusion is not:

“Broadcom never misses.”

The more accurate conclusion is:

Broadcom has demonstrated a long history of conservative, continually updated guidance — and when management has sufficient visibility, the company has repeatedly delivered results at or above its most recent operating outlook.

That distinction matters.

FY2019 — Original Guidance Was Reduced, Then Broadcom Delivered The Revised Outlook

At the beginning of FY2019, Hock Tan and management forecast approximately:

$24.5 billion of revenue

Broadcom later reduced FY2019 revenue guidance to approximately:

$22.5 billion

The primary catalyst was the Huawei export restriction and the resulting deterioration in semiconductor demand and supply-chain visibility.

Hock Tan said in the Q3 FY2019 earnings call that Broadcom was maintaining the revised full-year revenue guidance of approximately $22.5 billion.

Broadcom ultimately reported:

FY2019 Actual Revenue: $22.597 Billion

That was only approximately $97 million above the revised $22.5 billion outlook, or about 0.4% above guidance.

However, it was approximately 7.8% below the original $24.5 billion forecast.

Bottom line:

Original guidance: $24.5B
Revised guidance: $22.5B
Actual: $22.597B
Result versus revised guidance: BEAT

This is an important example of why Broadcom's latest management outlook is generally the more meaningful number to evaluate.

Sources: Broadcom FY2019 results and guidance; Q3 FY2019 earnings-call commentary.

FY2020 — COVID-19 Forced Broadcom To Withdraw Annual Guidance

At the beginning of FY2020, Broadcom forecast:

Revenue: $25.0 Billion ± $500 Million

Management also forecast approximately:

$13.75 Billion Adjusted EBITDA ± $250 Million

That guidance was subsequently withdrawn as the COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented uncertainty throughout the global economy and semiconductor supply chain.

Broadcom ultimately reported:

FY2020 Revenue: $23.888 Billion

FY2020 Adjusted EBITDA: $13.643 Billion

Importantly, this should not be classified simply as a management “miss.”

Management explicitly withdrew the annual revenue outlook because visibility had deteriorated.

And despite the unprecedented environment, Broadcom still produced:

$23.9 billion of revenue

$12.1 billion of operating cash flow

$11.6 billion of free cash flow

The company also increased revenue approximately 6% year-over-year.

Bottom line:

Initial FY2020 revenue guidance: ~$25.0B ± $0.5B
Guidance later withdrawn: YES
Actual FY2020 revenue: $23.888B
Classification: No fair beat/miss comparison after guidance withdrawal

Source: Broadcom FY2020 results.

FY2021 — Broadcom Returned To A More Predictable Operating Environment

Broadcom reported:

FY2021 Revenue: $27.450 Billion

That represented approximately 15% year-over-year growth.

Rather than emphasizing a formal full-year revenue target, Broadcom increasingly used quarterly guidance as its primary public operating framework.

At the end of FY2021, for example, management provided Q1 FY2022 guidance of approximately:

$7.6 Billion Revenue

Broadcom ultimately reported Q1 FY2022 revenue of approximately $7.7 billion, meaning the company essentially delivered slightly above the initial quarterly outlook.

The larger point is that Broadcom's guidance framework increasingly became a rolling, quarter-by-quarter model rather than a single annual number.

Source: Broadcom FY2021 results and Q1 FY2022 outlook.

FY2022 — Strong Execution Against Quarterly Guidance

Broadcom ended FY2022 with:

$33.203 Billion Revenue

Revenue increased:

21% year-over-year

At the end of FY2022, management guided Q1 FY2023 revenue to approximately:

$8.9 Billion

Management also guided to approximately:

63% Adjusted EBITDA

Broadcom's use of quarterly guidance became increasingly important because management was operating in a rapidly changing semiconductor environment.

Source: Broadcom FY2022 results and Q1 FY2023 guidance.

FY2023 — Another Record Year

Broadcom delivered:

FY2023 Revenue: $35.819 Billion

Adjusted EBITDA: $23.213 Billion

Free Cash Flow: $17.633 Billion

AI was already becoming an increasingly important growth driver.

Management described FY2023 as being driven in part by hyperscaler investments in AI accelerators and network connectivity.

For FY2024, Broadcom then provided something particularly important:

Formal full-year revenue guidance.

Management forecast:

FY2024 Revenue: Approximately $50 Billion

including the contribution from VMware.

Source: Broadcom FY2023 results and FY2024 guidance.

FY2024 — A Clear Annual Guidance Beat

This is one of the strongest examples in the historical record.

In December 2023, Broadcom guided:

FY2024 Revenue: Approximately $50.0 Billion

Management also guided:

Adjusted EBITDA: Approximately 60% of revenue

Broadcom ultimately reported:

FY2024 Revenue: $51.574 Billion

That means Broadcom delivered approximately:

$1.574 Billion MORE revenue than its original $50 billion annual guidance.

That's approximately:

+3.1% above guidance

And the company generated:

$31.9 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA

along with approximately:

$21.9 Billion of free cash flow excluding restructuring.

Perhaps even more important for today's discussion:

FY2024 AI revenue reached:

$12.2 Billion

up approximately:

220% year-over-year.

Source: Broadcom FY2024 results.

FY2025 — The Guidance Track Record Became Even More Interesting

Broadcom did not provide a single formal FY2025 consolidated revenue target comparable to the FY2024 $50 billion forecast.

Instead, management continued using quarterly guidance.

And the results repeatedly demonstrated strong execution.

For example, management guided Q1 FY2025 revenue to:

$14.6 Billion

Broadcom actually delivered:

$14.916 Billion

That was approximately:

$316 Million above guidance

or roughly:

+2.2%

Source: Broadcom Q1 FY2025 results and guidance.

Broadcom then continued to execute through the year.

By Q3 FY2025, management was guiding Q4 revenue to approximately:

$17.4 Billion

Actual Q4 FY2025 revenue:

$18.015 Billion

That represents approximately:

$615 Million above guidance

or approximately:

+3.5%

And the upside was driven substantially by AI.

Q4 AI semiconductor revenue:

$6.5 Billion

up:

74% year-over-year

Broadcom ultimately finished FY2025 with:

$63.887 Billion Revenue

$20.2 Billion AI Semiconductor Revenue

$26.9 Billion Free Cash Flow

The FY2025 result was a record year across the major financial metrics.

Sources: Broadcom FY2025 results and management commentary.

FY2026 — The AI Guidance Track Record Is Now Becoming Extremely Important

This is where the historical guidance discussion becomes particularly relevant.

At the beginning of FY2026, management guided:

Q1 FY2026 Revenue: $19.1 Billion

Q1 AI Semiconductor Revenue: $8.2 Billion

Actual Q1 FY2026 revenue:

$19.311 Billion

And AI semiconductor revenue reached approximately:

$8.4 Billion

So Broadcom exceeded its Q1 consolidated revenue guidance and its AI revenue outlook.

Broadcom subsequently guided Q2 and Q3 higher as AI demand accelerated.

For Q2 FY2026, management guided approximately:

$22.0 Billion Revenue

Actual:

$22.187 Billion

For Q3 FY2026, management guided approximately:

$29.4 Billion Revenue

Actual:

$29.591 Billion

And Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was:

$16.7 Billion

up an extraordinary:

221% year-over-year

Source: Broadcom FY2026 results and SEC filings.

The Most Important Development: Hock Tan Has Now Extended The Visibility Window

During the September 2, 2026 Q3 FY2026 earnings call, Hock Tan provided an unusually detailed long-term AI semiconductor revenue trajectory.

The numbers are extraordinary:

Fiscal Year	AI Semiconductor Revenue Outlook
FY2025 Actual	$20.2B
FY2026 Outlook	~$58B
FY2027 Outlook	~$115B
FY2028 Outlook	~$230B

The progression is essentially:

$20B → $58B → $115B → $230B

That represents approximately:

FY2026: +186%

FY2027: ~2X

FY2028: ~2X again

And Hock Tan made an extremely important clarification:

This is not merely a theoretical TAM forecast.

He stated:

“In 2027, we have secured the supply to again double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion.”

He then said:

“Our demand actually exceeds this outlook, and we will work to improve supply.”

And for FY2028:

“We have line of sight for fiscal 2028 AI semiconductor revenue growth to again double to $230 billion.”

He followed that with:

“Here again, we have secured the supply to meet this outlook.”

Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript.

The Supply-Chain Comment May Be Just As Important As The Revenue Forecast

Hock Tan was asked directly about the supply required to support the $115 billion FY2027 outlook.

His answer was unusually clear.

He explained that Broadcom has secured supply across critical components including:

Leading-edge wafers

Substrates

HBM memory

He also emphasized that customer demand is actually higher than the $115 billion outlook.

That distinction is critical.

The $115 billion number is not necessarily management's estimate of maximum customer demand.

It is management's estimate of what Broadcom believes it can support based upon:

Customer demand

Data-center deployment readiness

Supply-chain availability

Manufacturing capacity

The CEO characterized the outlook as:

“a carefully structured outlook that we believe we can achieve.”

Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings call.

And Then There Is The FY2028 EPS Target

Perhaps the most important financial statement from the entire call came immediately after the AI revenue discussion.

Hock Tan said:

“As a result, I got to say we are very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.”

That is an important distinction.

He did not say:

“We hope to achieve $30.”

He did not say:

“We estimate $30.”

He said Broadcom is:

“very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.”

Source: Q3 FY2026 earnings-call transcript.

Why Broadcom's Historical Guidance Record Matters

The historical record suggests that investors should evaluate Hock Tan's long-term projections differently from a generic Wall Street analyst forecast.

Broadcom has demonstrated several recurring characteristics:

1. Management Is Willing To Reduce Guidance When Reality Changes

FY2019 is the obvious example.

The original $24.5 billion forecast was reduced to $22.5 billion following the Huawei-related shock.

Broadcom ultimately delivered $22.597 billion.

That demonstrates that management does not simply maintain an unrealistic forecast to protect appearances.

2. Management Has Withdrawn Guidance When Visibility Was Insufficient

FY2020 provides the clearest example.

During COVID-19, Broadcom withdrew its annual guidance rather than pretend that management had visibility it did not possess.

3. Once Visibility Improves, Broadcom Frequently Executes At Or Above Its Updated Outlook

FY2024 is the clearest annual example:

$50B guidance → $51.6B actual

FY2025 provides additional quarterly evidence:

$17.4B Q4 guidance → $18.0B actual

FY2026 has continued the pattern:

Q2: ~$22.0B guidance → $22.2B actual

Q3: ~$29.4B guidance → $29.6B actual

And AI revenue has repeatedly come in at or above management's prior outlook.

The Bigger Picture: Broadcom's Guidance Philosophy

Broadcom's historical behavior suggests a very important management philosophy:

Hock Tan tends to guide based on what he believes Broadcom can actually execute — rather than what the theoretical opportunity might eventually become.

That is particularly relevant to the new FY2027 and FY2028 AI projections.

Broadcom isn't simply saying:

“The AI market could be $230 billion.”

Management is saying:

Broadcom expects its own AI semiconductor revenue to reach approximately $230 billion in FY2028.

And management says the supply chain necessary to support that outlook is already secured.

That is a much more concrete statement.

The FY2026 → FY2028 AI Revenue Trajectory

Consider what management has now placed on the table:

FY2026: ~$58B

↓

FY2027: ~$115B

↓

FY2028: ~$230B

That represents approximately two consecutive doublings.

And Broadcom is already reporting extraordinary acceleration.

Q3 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue:

$16.7B

+221% YoY

Q4 FY2026 AI semiconductor guidance:

$21.7B

+236% YoY

Source: Broadcom's official Q3 FY2026 earnings release.

What Investors Should Watch From Here

The historical record doesn't mean investors should assume that every future forecast will automatically be achieved.

There are legitimate execution variables.

Among them:

Data-center construction

Power availability

Customer deployment schedules

Leading-edge wafer capacity

HBM availability

Advanced packaging

Substrate capacity

Customer concentration

AI system gross-margin mix

However, the latest management commentary suggests Broadcom is explicitly incorporating many of these variables into its outlook.

Hock Tan specifically addressed supply, customer demand and deployment timing during the Q3 call.

That is considerably more informative than a simple top-down market-size forecast.

Bottom Line

The historical record does not support the simplistic statement:

“Broadcom always beats guidance.”

A fact-based review shows something more credible:

Broadcom has sometimes missed original guidance or withdrawn guidance when major external events dramatically changed the operating environment.

But once management has sufficient visibility, Broadcom has demonstrated a strong history of:

Meeting updated guidance

Beating quarterly guidance

Raising the outlook as visibility improves

Delivering record free cash flow

Expanding operating leverage

And converting AI demand into rapidly increasing actual revenue

Meanwhile, AI semiconductor revenue has moved from approximately:

$20.2B in FY2025

to management's current:

~$58B FY2026 outlook

followed by:

~$115B FY2027

and:

~$230B FY2028

with management stating that the necessary supply for the FY2027 and FY2028 outlooks has been secured.

And finally, Hock Tan has publicly stated that Broadcom is:

“very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.”

For long-term AVGO investors, the historical guidance record therefore provides an important piece of context:

The question is no longer simply whether Broadcom has a huge AI opportunity.

The more important question is whether Broadcom can execute against the extraordinary multi-year trajectory that management has now put on the table.

Based on Broadcom's demonstrated ability to execute, update its outlook as visibility improves, secure supply and repeatedly deliver record financial results, there is a strong historical foundation for taking management's current long-term roadmap seriously — while recognizing that FY2027/FY2028 remain forward-looking projections and are not guaranteed outcomes.

Long AVGO investor. Not financial advice. Do your own research before buying AVGO or any other stock.

Primary Sources

Broadcom's Investor Relations archive contains the company's historical annual reports and financial releases dating back through 2019, allowing investors to independently verify the guidance and actual results discussed above.

Broadcom FY2019 results and guidance;

Broadcom FY2020 results;

Broadcom FY2021 results;

Broadcom FY2022 results;

Broadcom FY2023/FY2024 guidance;

Broadcom FY2024 actual results;

Broadcom FY2025 actual results;

Broadcom Q2/Q3 FY2026 results;

Q3 FY2026 earnings-call transcript and Hock Tan's FY2027/FY2028 AI revenue and EPS commentary.

Excerpt:

Government forces retreat south to establish alternate command center, aiming to keep vital shipping route in their hands; women and children flee Mocha for safer provinces

Excerpts:

The Iran-backed Houthi militants ‌have ​taken control of ⁠the ​Yemeni Red Sea ⁠city of Mocha, ‌closing ​in on ‌the ‌strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, ⁠three Yemeni ‌government ⁠sources ⁠told ⁠Reuters on ‌Thursday.

The report came on the heels of the terror's group overrunning of the Red Sea islands of Hanish on Thursday.

Two military sources from the Yemeni government detailed the news, according to Reuters.

Excerpts:

Broadcom's profits are rising as its custom AI chip sales grow into a much larger portion of its business.

For this year, it expects AI semiconductor revenue to total $58 billion. Next year, that figure is expected to rise to $115 billion, and in 2028, the forecast is for $230 billion. That's a rapid ramp-up, but what's even more important is that Broadcom has secured the supply chain necessary to deliver on that growth. This lowers the execution risk for Broadcom as it expands into a growing market, and if these projections pan out, it makes it a must-own stock.

If Broadcom hits its AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $230 billion, combined with $58 billion from existing core businesses, that would total $288 billion in revenue. At a 50% profit margin, that would give it $144 billion in profits. If the market values Broadcom at 30 times earnings, that would give it a market cap of $4.3 trillion. Right now, Broadcom's market cap is $1.7 trillion at a $358 per share price tag. To increase it to $4.3 trillion would require a price of over $900 per share for the stock. 

That's nearly a tripling in about two and a half years, which would almost certainly make Broadcom one of the best-performing stocks over the next few years. As a result, I think it's an incredible buy right now, and investors should consider loading up on shares.

Freightos Weekly Update - September 8, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Analysis:

Tensions between Iran and the US continue to climb around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran now announcing plans to impose a wider exclusion zone on areas near the strait. Fuel rates have trended up since the ceasefire collapse in July, but recent escalations as well as an increase in Chinese crude imports have pushed bunker fuel prices back up to levels last seen in June. Jet fuel prices are back to May levels with both fuels about 60% higher than before the start of the war.

Climbing fuel costs are likely setting an elevated floor for container rates, but ocean prices are still largely being driven by demand trends and disruptions to capacity availability.

Transpacific ocean rates cooled slightly last week, suggesting there won’t be additional rate increases in what is likely the last few weeks of peak season. But elevated demand that started in late May has kept prices at peak levels since early July. Current rates – of about $7,600/FEU to the West Coast and $9,500/FEU to the East Coast – are about back to levels last seen during peak season in 2024 when seasonal demand, Red Sea disruptions to capacity and some frontloading ahead of a possible East Coast labor strike combined to push rates up sharply.

Severe typhoon-driven congestion at Far East container hubs are likely also contributing to current rate levels. Carriers have increased blanked sailings for this week – possibly as moves to recover schedules disrupted by the storms – which could also help keep prices elevated even if demand has started to ease.

The Panama Canal Authority has postponed an additional half-foot draft reduction for Neopanamax transits until further notice, though it is still bracing for drought conditions from the expected El Nino this year. The PCA reduced daily transits by four to 32 this month, though Neopanamax daily slots – used by long haul container vessels – have only been reduced by one.

Asia-Europe container rates ticked down slightly last week to $4,500/FEU to N. Europe and $4,700/FEU to the Mediterranean, though Mediterranean prices have cooled further so far this week to about even with N. Europe. Going back to 2017, Asia - Mediterranean rates have on average been 17% higher than Asia - N. Europe prices, though at times they have been lower.

The current sharper decline from peak season highs for Mediterranean rates – a $2,600/FEU and 37% drop compared to $1,300/FEU and 23% for N. Europe lanes – may reflect both the recent increase in Red Sea transits for some Mediterranean services and that congestion at N. Europe hubs is keeping upward pressure on rates for those lanes even as peak season demand has cooled. Even with these declines, rates for both lanes remain $1,000 - $1,700/FEU above pre-peak season levels, likely due to Far East congestion as well. Recent port worker strikes in Germany and the Netherlands are now also contributing to some of the backlog.

Excerpts:

Why Cantor Fitzgerald raised its Broadcom price target to $600

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse lifted his price target on Broadcom to $600 from $525 and kept an Overweight rating, Investing.com reported.

The move came on September 3, 2026, one day after earnings.

Muse now models 2028 earnings per share of $35, above the $27.39 consensus. 

His $600 target reflects about 17 times that estimate, a multiple that looks modest for a company growing this fast.