Excerpts:

Where will Broadcom's stock be in 2032?

Broadcom's business could transform as sales of its custom AI chips soar. From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow at CAGRs of 62% and 63%, respectively. Those are stellar growth rates for a stock that trades at 14 times next year's adjusted EBITDA. 

According to Market Research Future, the global AI market could expand at a 38.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, while the global AI chip market could grow at a 33.7% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. If Broadcom keeps up with those secular trends, its stock could soar even higher.

If Broadcom matches Wall Street's expectations through fiscal 2028, grows its adjusted EBITDA at a 30% CAGR through fiscal 2033, and trades at a more generous 25 times its forward adjusted EBITDA, its stock could rise nearly tenfold by 2032 and turn a $5,000 investment into over $50,000.

I sold my Broadcom stock. Now with all the bad news ahead and OpenAi telling their ARR is not 70 billion but 50 billion, I don’t believe Broadcom is gonna find a partner to finance this deal with so much risk.

This stock is to much dependent on money burning machines.

sorry folks stop loss set in. not going to lose money, but the market is a big scam designed to screw people over. i just find it dumb that avgo is down more than AMD even though AMD is overpriced as shit and avgo supposedly is cheap. you be right in the market and lose money, or invest in overpriced companies and make money

Both frontier-lab customers now appear to have Broadcom-linked financing in motion, with $110 billion of reported raises against $48.96 billion of net debt today.

Broadcom is reportedly pursuing a $50 billion debt financing to fund AI chips for a major AI research laboratory. This is a different customer and a different pool of money from the $60 billion raise for Anthropic. Nothing in the report says whether the two overlap, what the instrument is, or whose balance sheet carries it.

Add the two and the reported total is $110 billion, which exceeds the $70 billion to $100 billion debt package reported last month. Either that package was always meant for more than one customer, or these are separate raises. Both readings are worse than the one I originally saw.

The leverage arithmetic follows the earlier signals, net debt is $48.96 billion and EBITDA is about $35 billion. If the $50 billion alone lands on Broadcom's balance sheet, leverage moves from 1.4 times to about 2.8 times. With both raises held in-house, net debt reaches about $159 billion, or 4.5 times. If an off-balance-sheet vehicle carries them, the ratio stays clean while the roughly $29 billion guarantee book, whose ceiling management has refused three times to disclose, gets a larger neighbour.

One major AI laboratory's accelerator program is guided toward 1.3GW of 2027 deployment. At $11 billion to $12 billion of Broadcom content per gigawatt, that is roughly $14 billion to $16 billion of chip revenue. A $50 billion raise is several times that figure. Broadcom would be financing more than its own content, or the facility covers more than 1.3GW. However, from reading the report I am unsure which.

This pushes the counterparty pillar from one lab to two. Both borrowers burn cash, and Broadcom's financing now runs through both.

What do people think about this?

I havent had good expreince betting big in the past. with IREN I listend to AI too much got reckless, bag holding it now. with ASTS I listened to reddit too much, bagh olding that one also. My high risk portfolio has been very down because of the two. Well I've moved on and been looking for something with more "agreed" growth potential. I've chosen AVGO, AVGO is the first stock which I consuldted neither ai nor reddit. I've gone with it because of consitent buy rating across anyalist sources. what you guys think? was it a good decdison to make a big entry at 362? saw some post where ppl are getting out. No reget so far..

Yeah, we are cooked. I was hesitant about becoming a monk in Mongolia or deep Russia because avgo stock showed some hope this week, but after today's openai bullshit I think it's time.

Wish me luck

Over the past 8 years, I saved up as much cash as I could. My girlfriend, who works as an investment professional, analyzed the technicals and fundamental setup with me. She believed in the thesis so much that she pitched in some of her own savings to help us lock in a $300,000 position in Broadcom (AVGO) at a $350 cost basis. We are planning our wedding for May of next year, so this gain directly helps us lock in our budget.
Taking a $300k position was terrifying. Staring at the 200-day moving average around $380 and watching the consolidation range between $340 and $360 gave us serious anxiety. Holding a concentrated position through macro volatility while waiting for the technical breakout kept us both on edge for weeks.
Here is why we felt so strongly about taking the trade:

1. Support Re-test & Base Formation: AVGO established strong structural support in the $340 to $350 range, bouncing off previous key resistance levels that turned into reliable demand zones.
2. Custom ASIC & AI Growth: Broadcom continues to dominate custom XPU design for hyperscalers. Their custom AI accelerator pipeline and high-bandwidth networking switches (Tomahawk/Jericho) give them a massive moat that directly drives top-line expansion.

Seeing the stock reclaim momentum above our cost basis is an incredible feeling after all that tension.
Would love to hear where other long term holders see resistance levels sitting right now. Appreciate all the insights in this sub! 🚀

https://preview.redd.it/swcnyumj78uh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0e0de657963f843a738f9654db8b0eb16164f9

https://preview.redd.it/6brx6wmj78uh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2290a4894827a645cbc65c2896716cb6e28c9127

https://preview.redd.it/q6f7ywmj78uh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5546c9e707a632ad89471a44811339a10c04a7

Excerpts:

OpenAI Records 20 Cents Where Anthropic Records a Dollar

The technical accounting distinction is precise. Under ASC 606 — the United States accounting standard that governs when and how revenue is recognized — a company records the gross value of a transaction when it acts as the "principal": the party primarily responsible for delivering the product and bearing the risk of the transaction. It records only its net share — the amount it actually retains after paying partners — when it acts as an "agent."

OpenAI and Anthropic take opposite positions on this question when customers buy AI access through cloud marketplaces.

When a customer purchases $1 worth of tokens through Microsoft Azure, OpenAI records only its roughly 20-cent share of that transaction as revenue — Microsoft keeps the remainder. Anthropic, by contrast, records the full $1 as top-line revenue, then lists the cloud partner's cut as a cost of sales, reasoning that Anthropic is the principal in the transaction regardless of which marketplace delivered it.

Excerpts:

KEY POINTS

• Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator partner, and it's growing extremely quickly.
• There are multiple reasons why custom chips are an important factor in the future of AI.

The biggest bottleneck in the AI build-out

With limited capital, hyperscalers must allocate it to assets with the highest potential return on investment. To be sure, there's a baseline demand for GPUs, which are often better for training or mixed-workload tasks. However, custom silicon offers better power-to-performance ratios and faster inference speeds while requiring less upfront capital. As a result, custom silicon can exhibit higher returns on capital.

That was crystalized in a recent interview given by Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian. He said the payback period on its AI servers is less than two years, but on Google's own silicon, it's less than half that. If the useful life of an AI server is six years, that increases the return on investment from about 200% to about 500%. It also reduces the risk of a slowdown in compute demand through smaller capital outlays and shorter payback periods.

Keeping inference costs low

There's a reason Anthropic and OpenAI are designing their own chips as well. They see the value in Alphabet's full-stack business model, where it designs the custom silicon that its large language models run on. Google Gemini offers a very low price per token for frontier models, and Kurian says that's entirely because it runs on Google's TPU chips on Google Cloud.

As more businesses use AI for more tasks and agentic AI becomes increasingly useful, token costs will play a significant role in determining which model enterprises choose. Being able to offer competitive pricing with Google will require OpenAI, Anthropic, and other LLM developers to use the most efficient chips available. More often than not, that will mean running most of their compute on custom silicon.

That further tilts the scales in favor of XPUs, as not only can they provide a higher return on invested capital for hyperscalers selling access, but they can also reduce the biggest ongoing cost for frontier labs (and, by extension, other enterprises).

Will XPUs overtake GPUs?

Nvidia's data center business exited the second quarter at a $356 billion run rate. That's absolutely massive, more than 4 times the size of Broadcom's XPU business.

But XPU adoption is growing faster, and the trend favors continued growth.

Earlier this year, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company would add more custom silicon servers to its data centers than Nvidia GPUs. Comments from Kurian, as well as Microsoftexecutives, suggest they're also leaning heavily toward adding more custom silicon than GPUs.

By volume, XPUs already seem to be winning the race among Nvidia's biggest customers, and that lead should continue to expand over the next few years. However, considering XPUs garner lower prices than GPUs, it will be a long time before revenue catches up. That shouldn't matter to investors, though, as prices should reflect the business's future growth. While Broadcom trades at a premium to Nvidia based on future earnings, that premium may be worth paying, considering the growth outlook for custom silicon.

Help me feel better, how bad are you down or up with AVGO? I’ll start, holding average price of $400 and down 13%.

Only reason I am sticking is that fundamentals is all showing $500 upward potential.

when is it our turn? Nvidia, amd,intel, marvl, arm. they all exploded. even qualcom did. what is AVGO waiting for?

I really understand that life is not about money. It’s not about stock. It’s not about revenue or EPS or f*kin P/E. But it about me. I’m wrong. I should not care about this shi and go to do something better and be happy about it. I feel like I don’t really happy to hold,trade,or play with stock anymore. I maybe continue to hold this stock so on but may not look at it every day like before. I think my time has come. I gotta become monk and do meditation all day. Wish me luck guys.

Stock ended up more than 3% today. Why was this sub so quiet? 😏

Anyone finally sell and that was the catalyst to push it higher?

#StayLongAVGO

In Hock We Trust.