🔴 AVGO giù forte in pre-mercato. gira una "notizia" su Marvell e Google. la leggo a mente fredda.

il fatto: Google tratta con Marvell per farsi progettare un paio di chip AI e dipendere meno da Broadcom. sembra il colpo al cuore della tesi. non lo è, per tre motivi:

1️⃣ non è nuova — è roba di aprile, oggi solo riscaldata.
2️⃣ non è un divorzio: Google ha un accordo con Broadcom fino al 2031 e resta il progettista principale. Marvell si aggiunge, non sostituisce. e sono ancora trattative, produzione anni avanti.
3️⃣ l'analista che segnala proprio questo rischio ha comunque il buy, con target pure alzato.

detto questo, non la butto via: è la manopola 3 — la concentrazione clienti — che mostra la faccia. è un rischio vero, non aria fritta. ma "il cliente si tiene due fornitori" non è "il cliente se ne va". il primo lo tieni d'occhio, il secondo rompe la tesi. qui siamo al primo.

quindi mani in tasca. la mia linea d'acquisto non si muove, e il giudice vero non è la candela di stamattina: è la trimestrale del 2 settembre, dove ora ascolto una cosa in più — cosa dicono di Google e dei prezzi.

il prezzo che scende su una notizia di quattro mesi fa non è informazione nuova. è sentiment. e il sentiment non si trada. 🟠

Excerpts:

Broadcom's close relationship with hyperscalers puts it in an excellent position to grow

The tech stock has performed exceptionally well over the past couple of years, particularly as tech capex has risen.

Broadcom's stock may not be as expensive as it seems

Even though Broadcom's stock has amassed some significant gains in recent years, its valuation is not outlandish. It's trading at 65 times its trailing earnings, but that falls to a multiple of 21 when based on the future profits that analysts expect from the company in the year ahead.

Bottom line: AVGO is the way to go. Thank you for your attention. ;)

AMD is a good company in a right sector. Semi long term direction is up, so is AMD. The semi pie will grow long term, as a 3rd fiddle player, AMD will do ok, even though large swing is expected. The biggest issue with AMD is the quality of their deals with OpenAI, Meta and ORCL. None of them financially capable of completing the deal, without some kind of special financing. In the case of OpenAI & Meta, they need to get “free shares” from AMD hitting milestone of 1T, ~$600/share, which is about 20% share dilution. Many pumpers have strong incentive to pump it up. I am not paying for it. $600 is a DUMP!

2% down on no news other than Cathy wood buying yesterday 🤦‍♂️

Sell sell sell

Because he was born in Penang before August 31, 1957 (independence or Merdeka Day) he was a Citizen of the United Kingdom and Colonies at birth

Additionally the Federation of Malaysia Independence Act, 1957 did not strip Citizenship of the UK and Colonies from those connected to Penang and Malacca. However the Commonwealth Immigrants Act, 1968 and Immigration Act, 1971 ended the possibility for such CUKC to move to the UK unless they had parents or grandparents born in the UK, or they happened to register naturalize, or if they had already settled in the UK to have “right of abode” in the UK

The British Nationality Act, 1981 then reclassified such CUKC as British overseas citizens, who are Commonwealth citizens and British nationals, but not British citizens. They can hold British passports and vote in the UK if they live there on a visa, but not move there without a visa.

Now Malaysia (his former country) bans acquiring a foreign passport under Article 24 and considers it enough for losing Malaysian citizenship, but if you never acquire it, youre legally safe. Holding an unexercised citizenship is fine. He is however an American citizen and has been since 1990 (a country that does not ban dual citizenship in any case) so he’s free to apply for one now.

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a82130ee5274a2e87dc1026/Background-information-on-nationality-v1.0EXT.pdf

Excerpts:

Broadcom has a major catalyst arriving in 2027

In the second quarter, Broadcom's AI semiconductor division grew at an impressive 143% pace to $10.8 billion. For 2027, Broadcom expects this division to generate at least $100 billion in revenue. That's major growth from today's level, and would make Broadcom a solid stock to buy now in anticipation of this growth.