u/Herzoger

- I still think DIGGER will be divisive (or just bad), but I'm putting it... for now.

- THE ODYSSEY wins Drama at the Globes, but I don't think it wins Best Picture at the Oscars. I think LA BOLA NEGRA takes that one. At the Globes, I have LBN winning Screenplay and Non-English Language Film (and probably Song too).

- THE INVITE is taking Comedy, Actress in a Comedy/Musical and Supporting Actress. Everyone is underestimating this film. And yes, I have Olivia in both Director and Actress (same thing at the Oscars). She's gonna make history. The other actress that's gonna make history is...

- Penélope Cruz, when she's double-nominated in the Supporting category (at the Oscars too). At the Globes, I also have her nominated for BUNKER in Lead Drama, but I don't know if that's gonna translate to the Oscars. That performance will probably only be a Globes thing, but who knows? Crazier things have happened.

- Speaking of Lead Actress, I have Sandra Hüller winning for ROSE. Renate will be nominated, but she's not winning. It's not an awards-friendly performance at all (same thing with Sebastian Stan). Not because they're bad in it—they just don't have the scenes. These performances are not what people think they are at all, and everyone will realize that when they finally watch the film.

- I have Pattinson double-nominated too: for THE DRAMA in Lead Comedy and PRIMETIME in Lead Drama. I wouldn't be surprised if they nominate him in Supporting for THE ODYSSEY too (I have him as a potential spoiler at #7).

- Other potential spoilers in the Acting categories (I have all of these at #7): Seydoux in Lead Drama, Meryl Streep (or Anne Hathaway) in Lead Comedy, and Mariana di Girolamo in Supporting >>> New reports say that her role is too small, and she's a relatively unknown actress. Those two things combined make me think she's not getting nominated here or at the Oscars.

- Another potential spoiler: OBSESSION in Screenplay.

- Yes, Digger is nowhere to be found. I think it will be polarizing. Also, this "top dog" Tom Cruise narrative WB is cooking is not gonna work. People like underdogs.

- Olivia Wilde supremacy. She will be the woman they nominate this year in Director (because as we all know, there's only room for one 🥴). I'm less confident of her in Lead, but it's only August so who really cares. (I have Seydoux at #6)

- Penélope Cruz x2 is happening. TRUST.

- The Odyssey will obviously do really well (and yes, I have Pattinson x2 too, his performance in The Odyssey is already being memed... Remember Benicio del Toro? Iconic). And the movie would win if it wasn't for...

- La Bola Negra. This year's underdog.

I have not seen THE BLACK BALL yet but from what I've heard she has a very short but showy performance. Like she does it all: from drama to singing and dancing. She has the same impact Judd Hirsch has in THE FABELMANS. That's what I've been told. Now let's talk about THE INVITE which I have seen. First of all, people are underestimating the hell out of this movie. It's a blast and a total crowd pleaser. So smart (without trying to be smart) and funny. Olivia Wilde directs like a pro (she's been underestimated as well in the director category). And the cast is just excellent. Everyone is at their top game. This is a Best Picture, screenplay, maybe editing (it's fire), acting and director contender. It has a very old school vibe that is very compelling. Think Woody Allen in his golden era + Mike Nichols but with today's sensibilities and humour. Like it's really good. Now let's talk about Penélope. She's truly magnetic in this role. She has so many great scenes and "Oscar clips". She's funny and sexy and there's just something about her that I can't really put into words. After seeing the movie her and Edward Norton are pretty much a lock (Olivia and Seth are leads and those categories are more crowded). And you know A24 will be campaigning her HARD for this movie as well. 

So I definitely think it's VERY POSSIBLE that she receives two nominations in the supporting category.