NQ Daily Analysis using TPO and VP | May 13
$NQ Daily Plan | May 13
Sellers made an early attempt to gain traction below Pivot Level (Shoot) at 29170.75 overnight, which was rejected, triggering a rotation higher. The overnight rally fell short of the initial upside target at 29511.00 (UT1), peaking in the mid 29400s during the Euro session before weakness emerged pre open following the PPI data release, erasing all overnight gains. There was a lot of activity around the Pivot at 29170.75 pre-open.
The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s spike area, and the key question, as discussed in the prior plan, was whether sellers could reject this area together with last week’s high and potentially trigger downside pressure. Immediately off the open, last week’s high was rejected, and sellers made another attempt to gain traction below Pivot Level ( Shoot) at 29314.00. Up until this point, sellers were in control. However, following the opening 30 minutes, that control faded as sellers were ultimately unable to defend the 29314.00 level. Heading into the second hour of trading, buyers reclaimed the FS VWAP and last week’s high, signaling early that shorts were unfavorable. A double distribution formed, and a new ATH was printed as the market broke out of the multi day balance area. The auction is once again attempting to transition from balance to imbalance, in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan For Tomorrow
The market came into balance on Tuesday after breaking the daily higher low structure, a state that ultimately proved short lived. Today’s session developed into a double distribution trend day, breaking out of balance into uncharted territory, following Tuesday’s long liquidation that cleared weak hands. The focus now is on today’s mid session single prints separating the distributions. Value building within today’s upper distribution, while rejecting attempts to gain acceptance back below 29330.50, would be a strong response supporting today’s breakout. Failure to do so, i.e. acceptance back into the lower distribution, would bring a failed breakout scenario into play.
In terms of levels, the Pivot level (Shoot) is 29438.75, a small set of single prints. Holding above 29438.75 signals stability and targets the ATH area at 29570.00 (UT1). Acceptance above 29570.00 would signal intraday strength, targeting 29717.25 (UT2), with a final upside target at 29824.25 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold 29438.75 would shift focus to 29330.50 (DT1). Acceptance below 29330.50 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 29202.50 (DT2), with a final downside target at 29001.00 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 29438.75.
- Holding above 29438.75 would target 29570.00 / 29717.25 / 29824.25
- Break and hold below 29438.75 would target 29330.50 / 29202.50 / 29001.00
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.88 and 16.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
- Break and hold above 29824.25 with VIX below 16.86 would confirm strength.
- Break and hold below 29001.00 with VIX above 18.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
