Since ASML is the only company who can produce EUV Lithography machines in a changing AI market, growth may not completely be priced into the market.
According to Q126 quartely release, EUV system sales took up 66% of total sales, steadily increasing sequentially over time, since the demand from AI and computing has increased steadily over time. Over the same period, DUV has remained flat, or growth extremely slowly compared to EUV at ~30-40% of total net sales. From 2021-2026, ASP of EUV has increased from mid 100 million to ~250 million (259 million, Q126).
I would have to think even though the future growth of ASML may be priced into the market, nobody truly understands the future growth and the computing power required. If customers such as TSMC or Intel end up selling chips to firms such as NVDA, AAPL, or MSFT which keep raising CapEx guidence, nobody truly understand the term-value of ASML. For example, OpenAI is estimating by management to have 200 billion in revenue, for them to be able to support such revenue growth which is them probably lying, you would need to have to best supporting chips (EUV). Another example could be Tesla or Amazon, who want to integrate more robots into their workforce, chips are required for this to occur.
The future of the EUV machines such as NXE:3800F, 4200G, 4200H which will be released by 2035, WPH will increase >100 wafers per hour, making competition have an incredible barier to entry for this niche market.
The only caps to this view is that with 13.5 nm wavelength (EUV) light gets absorbed such much to the point that phyics are ASML's biggest competitor at this point in time.
Would be interested in hearing other people's views.
