u/Hot-Marketer-27

Previous Predictions - March

Actress - Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Renate Reinsve (Fjord), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Léa Seydoux (The Unknown), Rinko Kikuchi (Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!)

Actor - Tom Cruise (Digger), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

Supporting Actress - Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Inde Navarrette (Obsession), Frances McDormand (Jack of Spades), Thandiwe Newton (Cry to Heaven), Emma Mackey (Narnia)

Supporting Actor - John Goodman (Digger), Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine), Riz Ahmed (Digger), Paul Giamatti (No One Cares)

Upon its very negative critical reception, I have dumped Michael all the way down to… my top 15. Yes, just top 15. The movie is still a massive box office hit, even if the crowds dancing in the theater might indicate more of a Minecraft level audience than anyone caring about the prospect of an Antoine Fuqua nomination for example. I can’t completely dismiss it though. What if it’s Bohemian Rhapsody just with Extremely Loud level reviews? On the other hand, there's no fun in posting the same ten films twice this early. Why not bring up something completely different? Something like Jesse Eisenberg's musical comedy No One Cares although I have heard that its title is likely to be changed to The Big Break. Black Swan meets Waiting for Guffman could go a number of ways but he is coming off of A Real Pain with A24 distributing. Should I have Julianne Moore in my Actress predictions? Yes but then again Bugonia & Train Dreams making it in without Plemons or Edgerton would make absolutely no sense this time last year so might as well.

But aside from that, I replaced All of a Sudden with The Unknown as my second Neon / Cannes / International pick. Described as a psychological thriller, we follow a man who hooks up with a woman (Léa Seydoux) only to awaken the next morning in her body. It sounds very high-concept. It’s going to play with genre. This could do very well with a Park Chan-wook jury. At least compared to a likely 3+ hour cancer drama. We can see Neon campaign Seydoux for her first ever nomination. It’s directed by Arthur Harari who was one of the co-writers of Anatomy of a Fall. It has the potential to be something that arthouse voters and voters who just want to be entertained can agree upon.