Bearman’s Future
With Leclerc now confirmed beyond 2030 and Hamilton recently saying he plans to be around for “a while,” I’m curious what people think Oliver Bearman’s long-term path looks like.
Earlier this season there were already plenty of predictions about Hamilton retiring and Bearman ending up at Ferrari as early as 2027. I never found those particularly convincing, but there at least seemed to be a fairly clear route to Ferrari at some point, less so now.
Hamilton doesn’t have a stated Ferrari contract extending that far out, but given the difficulties he had adapting last year and the form he’s starting to find now, I could easily see him wanting to stay for several more seasons. Even if he left Ferrari, I’m not sure where he’d realistically go. Red Bull feels unlikely, and a return to Mercedes after everything surrounding his departure would seem odd.
That leaves me wondering: what’s Bearman’s game here?
I can’t help comparing him to Russell at Williams. Russell was clearly frustrated at times, but it always felt like his Mercedes promotion was a question of when, not if. Bearman’s situation feels much less certain. Haas is also in a much stronger position than Williams was at the time, so simply staying put isn’t necessarily a bad outcome.
Looking around the grid, I don’t see many obvious openings. Mercedes seem to be building around Antonelli, McLaren have two relatively young drivers who don’t look like they’re going anywhere soon, and Red Bull have their own junior pipeline. If Verstappen leaves, they’d surely want a proven race winner rather than another developing prospect.
I think Bearman has shown enough talent to comfortably maintain on the F1 grid, but not so much that top teams will be eager to move established drivers aside for him. So where do people realistically see him ending up over the next 3-5 years?