Be Warned! DDHQ's 'Live Results' aren't live. They're modeled.
I want to document something that happened to me last night on Kalshi that I think is relevant to anyone using DecisionDeskHQ (DDHQ) for live election results on prediction markets.
**The Short Version**
DDHQ's "Live Results" percentage reporting figures appear to be algorithmically modeled estimates — not confirmed administrative data from official sources. In a high-turnout anomaly, their model diverged catastrophically from reality. I made defensive trades based on what looked like a massive projection miss. Those trades were unnecessary. The positions I covered were fine. Net result: $4,600 loss that shouldn't have happened.
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**Background**
I've done extensive modeling on the KY-04 GOP primary. I correctly anticipated an elevated turnout event — the district ultimately broke its all-time primary record by 21,000 votes. My positioning reflected that. Going into election night, I was well-situated.
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**What Happened**
As results came in, DDHQ was showing approximately 104k votes at 86% reporting. Based on that completion percentage, my real-time projections looked 20-30k off. I started making defensive moves — covering positions at significant losses and pivoting to try to recover.
Meanwhile I had NBC on in the background. They were showing the same ~104k votes, but 96% reporting. Same vote count. 10-point gap in completion percentage.
I went to the KY Secretary of State website. They confirmed ~104k votes at 96.1% reporting — with every county at 100% EXCEPT Trimble County, which they showed at zero percent reporting. Zero votes. Zero precincts.
DDHQ was showing Trimble County at roughly 20% reporting.
**Where did that number come from?** The official SoS — the authoritative source — showed nothing from Trimble. The only logical explanation is that DDHQ was modeling completion percentages algorithmically, and Trimble's small trickle of early votes "looked like" roughly 20% of their historical baseline to the model.
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**The Boone County Smoking Gun**
Boone County: DDHQ showed 19,909 votes, 86% reporting. KY SoS showed 19,909 votes, 100% reporting. Identical vote count. Completely wrong completion status.
This wasn't a rounding error. This was a systematic modeling failure on their completion percentage calculations — almost certainly because their historical baseline couldn't account for a record-breaking turnout event.
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**The Disclosure Problem**
DDHQ has a disclaimer on their Twitter account: *"Automated system: May contain errors."*
There is **no such disclaimer anywhere on their Live Results page** — where users are actually consuming and acting on the data in real time.
A page called "Live Results" carries an implicit promise of facticity. If those completion percentages are modeled rather than confirmed, that needs to be disclosed on the page itself — not buried in a Twitter bio.
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**The Practical Warning**
If you are trading on Kalshi, Polymarket, or any prediction market using DDHQ for live results:
- Their % reporting figures may be modeled estimates, not confirmed administrative data
- This divergence is worst in high-turnout anomalies — exactly the elections most likely to matter for threshold markets
- Cross-validate against your state's Secretary of State website in real time
- NBC, AP, and the official SoS site all showed consistent data that night. DDHQ was the outlier.
I've submitted a formal complaint to DDHQ. Happy to answer any questions or provide additional detail in the comments.
(Full Disclosure: I had Claude help me format this post. For clarity.)