u/Hungry_Confection108

Faers not updating

I have checked FAERS and last inputs/cases are like two weeks old, usually, it seems to be up and updating all the time. Are there some downtimes or periodical uploads in batches or something like that?

I am asking since I was factchecking some post about Foundayo adverse effects and then remembered someone said it was weird that it stopped updating after spike in its adverse effects cases. Well its not just Foundayo, even wegovy has last input from like 5th of May.

Thanks

reddit.com
u/Hungry_Confection108 — 4 days ago

New shipping options

Hello, honestly the change in shipping options ruined CM for me (now you cant choose tracked letter and have to use tracked parcel). Shipping is insanely expensive and i dont want to spend 20+ euro shipping for 30 euro card...

How about if we send tickets that this isnt working very well?

reddit.com
u/Hungry_Confection108 — 5 days ago

More detailed breakdown of last week prescription data

This actually sounds uplifting.

"The latest weekly GLP-1 data is another solid update for Novo Nordisk.

Some will probably focus on the fact that Wegovy pill prescriptions declined week over week. That is technically true but also misses the bigger picture.

Novo now has several parallel growth vectors in obesity: injectable Wegovy, Wegovy pill, and Wegovy HD. Meanwhile Lilly's Foundayo, is still early. The launch curve does not yet look threatening to Wegovy pill.

The headline numbers

For the week ending 8 May 2026, total Wegovy TRx reached 445´921, up 1.3% week over week.

That includes 137´333 TRx for Wegovy pill, down 4.4% week over week.

Excluding the oral formulation, injectable Wegovy would have been up 3.6%.

The injectable franchise shows no obvious cannibalization pressure from the pill.

Why the pill week over week decline is not what it looks like

The 4.4% IQVIA decline is not necessarily a demand thing.

Some analysts points to a capture rate around 70%. That is too high. A more reasonable assumption is closer to 60%.

At a 60% capture rate, 137k IQVIA TRx would imply underlying weekly demand closer to 229k.

The comparison that actually matters: Wegovy pill vs Foundayo at same launch weeks

Foundayo is now in its fifth week on the market and posted 10´248 TRx.

Wegovy pill, in its own fifth week, posted 38´220 TRx.

Wegovy pill was running at roughly 3.7x Foundayo's volume at the same point in launch.

That is the number we should care about.

Foundayo is not launching into a vacuum. It is launching into a market where Novo already has an oral obesity product with broad distribution, real prescriber awareness, and a launch curve that started far stronger.

And the absolute gap keeps widening.

Foundayo vs Wegovy pill at same weeks: gap of 1´681 → 14´703 → 20´497 → 21´180 → 27´972 TRx. Five consecutive weeks of expansion. The most recent week's step (+6,792 TRx) was the largest yet.

Foundayo grew 39.7% week-over-week, which is healthy. But Wegovy pill at its own week 5 grew 34%. Two things both growing fast, with the larger one growing slightly slower, produces some ratio compression. It does not produce a catch up.

If anyone were expecting Lilly's oral GLP-1 to immediately reset the competitive landscape, the early prescription data does not support that view.

The second comparison: Foundayo vs Wegovy HD

The other metric I want to pull out is Foundayo versus high-dose Wegovy.

High-dose Wegovy 7.2mg Pen is in its sixth week on the market and posted 5´783 TRx.

Foundayo, in week five, posted 10´248 TRx.

Wegovy HD at week 6 is therefore at 56% of Foundayo at week 5. Different products. Different patient pools. But Wegovy HD is a specialist line extension competing against the most hyped oral obesity launch. And it is already at more than half of Foundayo's weekly volume.

That is not exactly a bearish signal for Novo.

Novo is not competing in obesity with one product. It is a portfolio approach, segmenting across patient needs: standard injectable Wegovy, oral Wegovy, and Wegovy HD for higher weightloss requirements.

Zepbound: solid headline, weaker underlying

Zepbound posted 655,946 TRx, up 0.8% week-over-week. Solid. Not explosive.

Wegovy's share of weekly obesity TRx held at 40.1%. The share picture is much more stable than the extreme bear Novo narrative has suggested.

There was vial noise this week. Zepbound vials increased to 242k TRx versus 236k last week. Excluding vials, Zepbound would have been slightly negative week over week, after +3.4% ex-vials the prior week.

The Zepbound pen base decelerated sharply this week. Vials are doing the lifting on the headline.

Diabetes was softer this week

Ozempic declined 0.9% and Mounjaro declined 0.3%. That compares with the prior week, where Ozempic was up 1.2% and Mounjaro up 2.5%. Both softer. Obesity remains the real battleground.

Starter doses still near all time highs

Total starter doses were down ~2k TRx versus the prior week. Novo added 1k. Lilly lost 3k.

The total starter dose level is 519k TRx, 1´000 below the all time high of 520k set the previous week.

We have an obesity market still running near record levels. And Novo is taking the marginal new patient share at the very top of the funnel.

Conclusion

This was a solid update for Novo.

The bearish interpretation could be that because Wegovy pill declined week-over-week the pressure from Lilly is now here.

The more accurate interpretation:

Novo's obesity franchise is broadening and not breaking. Wegovy total TRx grew. Injectable Wegovy looks healthy. Wegovy pill is far ahead of Foundayo at same timing. Wegovy HD is already gaining traction. Starter doses sit near all time highs. IQVIA still undercaptures the real Wegovy pill runrate.

The two numbers that matter

Wegovy pill week 5: 38,220 TRx vs Foundayo week 5: 10´248 TRx. Wegovy pill is 3.7x Foundayo at matched launch stage, and the absolute gap has widened for five straight weeks to almost 28´000 TRx.

Foundayo week 5: 10´248 TRx vs Wegovy HD week 6: 5´783 TRx. A specialist high-dose injectable is already at 56% of Foundayo.

The above is not the situation you would expect if Novo were being structurally displaced and for which it is still valued at.

The obesity market is segmenting through administration, efficacy need, tolerability, BMI, payer access, channel, and patient preference.

Novo does not need one product to beat every Lilly product in every segment.

It needs a broad enough portfolio to remain relevant across the major patient pools, and an evidence stack that provides the reasons to select from the portfolio."

https://x.com/i/status/2055412237838295512

reddit.com
u/Hungry_Confection108 — 7 days ago