Bubblemaps says it identified a cluster of 9 connected wallets that allegedly made around $2.4M trading Polymarket contracts tied to major US military events.

The interesting part is the timing. Large bets were reportedly placed shortly before key military developments, with an estimated 98% accuracy rate.

Some of the funds allegedly moved through centralized exchanges and third party services, making tracking more difficult.

Bubblemaps does not directly accuse the wallets of insider trading, but says the behavior looks like an unfair informational advantage.

The debate around prediction markets and non public information is starting again.

Lee Reiners, a former New York Fed official, said the WLFI token from World Liberty Financial could potentially be viewed as an unregistered security instead of just a normal governance token.

His argument the token was being sold before the actual protocol fully existed, the project heavily leaned on the Trump brand, and buyers probably expected upside from the business itself, not just voting rights.

He also questioned how decentralized the whole thing really is. Especially after earlier comments from Justin Sun, who claimed his tokens were frozen and his governance participation was restricted.

Now people are starting to look closer at the unlock structure, presale allocations and whether holders actually have any meaningful control at all.

Feels like this story could get a lot bigger if regulators decide to dig deeper.

Since early April, BTC has climbed over 20% and reached a new 3 month high. Despite that, analysts still describe the move as a bear market rally rather than confirmation of a full bullish cycle.

short term holders have already started locking in gains more aggressively.

On May 4 alone
— realized profit hit 14,600 BTC
— STH-SOPR stayed above 1.0 for weeks

That usually means short term traders are now selling in profit instead of panic selling at a loss.

The firm also notes that unrealized profits across the market have increased, which historically raises the probability of profit taking and local pullbacks.

At the same time, CryptoQuant is not calling for an immediate reversal yet.

For now the market is still being supported by:

— strong perpetual futures demand

— relatively low exchange inflows

— spot demand that remains weak but stable

TON 1W

Maybe TON will become the first large-cap altcoin to reach the first recovery target at $3.72 (summer 2025 levels) in an empty market where price is very cheap to move.

From a technical perspective, it’s better to wait either for consolidation above $2.03 or for the first reaction from the nearest resistance zone at $2.72–3.72, which previously acted as support.

In any case, chasing the candle here is extremely risky, so the market needs a flat range and a clear formation before any entry makes sense. Personally, I don’t really like this asset because it’s slow and usually pumps once a year.

On May 1, BTC ETFs recorded $600M in inflows. This matters.

BTC is holding in a tight consolidation while strong inflows appear on the first trading day of the month. That usually points to what may come next.

I don’t expect inflows to slow down next week, which explains why the pullbacks remain shallow.

The 80k zone is critical and needs to be broken.

If that happens, the next move could extend toward 85 to 88k, where the first real resistance sits.