The Copernicus ensemble SST projections out to Oct. of this year show a rapidly strengthening El Niño with SST's above 2.0degC anomalies relative to 1993-2016, if I'm reading the website correctly:
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-system SST 1-month seasonal forecast
Keeping in mind the El Niño peak isn't expected until December or even January of next year.
The Ghosts of 1877–78
Many people probably haven't heard of the "Great Drought" of 1877. It followed a record-long La Niña, which allowed the Pacific to "recharge" an insane amount of heat. When it finally broke, it triggered a Super El Niño that lasted nearly two years. Coupled with a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD), it caused the monsoon to fail across Asia and Africa. The resulting famine killed roughly 3% of the global population.
The 1997–98 Parallel
We saw a similar "monster" El Niño in 1997. It was the first time we truly saw global temperatures spike in the modern era, leading to massive coral bleaching and record-breaking heat. Like 1877, it was a "perfect storm" where oceanic cycles synchronized to pump maximum heat into the atmosphere.
Why 2026 is Scarier
Observers are noting that we aren't just repeating history, we are amplifying it:
We are currently seeing another "perfect storm" of climatic events, a "super" El Niño building on a record-warm baseline, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and a boiling North Atlantic. The last time these factors aligned into a "monster" El Niño was 1877, which led to a global famine that killed 30-60 million people.
As of April 14, 2026, the global average sea surface temperature reached 21.15degC, just shy of the all-time 2024 record. Because this "monster" El Niño is building on top of this already extreme baseline, climatologists warn that we are entering "uncharted territory" where the atmospheric responses may be more violent than in previous "super" events.
This is also expected to cause significant ice loss at both poles, a "Double Blue Ocean Event" (DBOE), by early 2027(!) and will probably push global average temperatures to historic, permanent highs.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!