While everything collapses, investment bankers see dollar signs 🫠

An interesting series on the interconnected pieces of what we typically call "the climate".

Part 1 of The Cascade looks at how climate stress, geopolitical chokepoints, pandemics, food systems, energy markets, and institutional fragility interact. The argument isn’t one apocalyptic prediction, but that risks compound when separate systems fail at the same time.

"Ludwig Boltzmann, who spent much of his life studying statistical mechanics, died in 1906, by his own hand. Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in 1933. Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics."

An American heat wave, aftermath from Venezuela’s twin earthquakes, record new temperatures across many European countries, warnings about AI and the global economy, and conflicts around the globe.

Last Week in Collapse: June 28-July 4, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse. You made it more than halfway through 2026.

This is the 236th weekly newsletter. The June 21-27, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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As Côte D’Ivoire’s torrential rainy season continues, authorities say 59+ people have been killed by flooding since May, alongside 13+ others in Ghana. According to Ghana’s President, Tuesday’s rain set a new record for daily precipitation in Accra, at 140mm (5.5 inches)—surpassing the previous one-day record of 56mm.

Damage Report from Venezuela, where a pair of earthquakes struck on 24 June: tens of thousands were injured, and 60,000+ buildings damaged or destroyed. Official death counts record 2,950+ fatalities, a number likely to rise in the coming weeks. 45,000 people are still unaccounted for. This photo essay and the accompanying stories liken the structural damage to a war zone.

Kashmir’s lakes are shrinking, or vanishing altogether, as they face pressures from expanding human settlements, less frequent precipitation, and pollution runoff entering the bodies of water. 315 natural lakes in Kashmir have disappeared in the past 50 years, leaving just 382 remaining. Fish populations in the surviving lakes have also dropped considerably.

Much of the eastern and southern United States baked under a strong heat wave through the week, with temperatures from Maine to Texas well over 90 °F (32 °C). Some places saw temps over 100 °F, and with high humidity, a heat index of over 115 °F (46 °C). The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature “WBGT observed during this event exceeded the previous record by an exceptionally large margin.” Over 60M people were under high heat advisories, and 130M at risk of “heat risk.” In areas with large & new data centers, the strain on electrical grids tested old infrastructure, and caused some data centers to temporarily switch to diesel generators.

The WHO confirmed that over 3,700 people across Europe died from June 21-28, as a result of the blistering heat wave across the continent, with over 1,000 in France alone. Other reports say that 1,000+ people also died across Spain during the heat wave. Sydney finished their hottest June since records began in 1859.

Although the disintegration of the ozone layer was not known to humans until the 1980s, a study in PNAS concluded that we could have detected damage to the ozone layer as early as 1957, had we applied our scientific tools to the task. They write that “a clear human influence on the stratospheric ozone layer began nearly 70 y ago….human-caused ozone depletion was likely identifiable as early as 1957 in the tropical upper stratosphere.” They identified carbon tetrachloride as the primary cause of ozone depletion in days, when the chemical was used for dry-cleaning, degreasing, and fire extinguishers since the ~1930s.

An upcoming study on buildings in Sydney, Australia examined building codes for a world heading towards 5 °C of warming in extreme climate scenarios. They concluded that such an increase would “exceed current typical and extreme heat conditions” for some upper-level apartments for 4-7 weeks of the year, inundating residents with heat stress unless air conditioning or other cooling practices were used. They say “52.7% of apartments in {New South Wales} fail overheating criteria, with average overheating hours projected to double by 2050 alongside increased nighttime exposure.”

A study in The Cryosphere looked at Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier (PIG), and concluded that “anthropogenic trends in forcing enhanced the retreat of PIG since the 1940s and are responsible for just under one fifth of the retreat over the industrial era…equivalent to an excess grounding-line retreat of 4.3 km.”

The World Bank is dropping its pledge to commit 45% of its lendings to “projects with climate co-benefits.” The reason? Basically, pressure from U.S. government officials dissatisfied with the ESG & DEI initiatives the institution was pursuing. Meanwhile, in northern Quebec, and elsewhere, 100+ wildfires are burning, mostly sparked by lightning. And sea surface temperature anomalies in the mid-Pacific El Niño region remain at record highs for this time of year; we have already seen new heat records for SSTs globally at the start of summer 2026. The UN is warning that El Niño will become strong between now and September.

All-time record temperatures were recorded at Russia’s Arctic city Norilsk (pop: 175,000), which felt temps just over 32 °C (90 °F). Switzerland’s shrinking Moming Glacier is basically snowless, and unlikely to get any more snow for months. About a week ago, as Europe’s merciless heat wave began to recede, Germany felt a record warm night, at 29.4 °C (85 °F); it was supposedly also the hottest night ever recorded above 50 °N in latitude. They were not alone: Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia also set new national daytime records, at various temps above 40 °C. World Weather Attribution says that “this heatwave is the most severe ever recorded” in Europe.

Morocco felt its hottest June night last Monday, at 32.4 °C. Parts of Mexico and Costa Rica felt record warm nights for June. Many Central American countries also felt new July minimums at over 30 °C. It will not surprise anyone to hear that England set a new record for its warmest June on record, while France ended its hottest week in recorded history.

Storms killed two across Romania and Austria. Part of Beijing reportedly saw 65mm of rain fall in a single hour…a bit further south, a city felt 92mm fall in one hour. Another heat wave is beginning to close in on Britain, predicted to bring temps of 34 °C later this week.

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As of Thursday, some 1,400+ people have been infected, and 438 killed, by the Ebola outbreak centered in the DRC. Medical trials are underway for potential treatments; there is currently no vaccine or treatment for this strain of Ebola, called Bundibugyo. But large-scale aid cuts, fear, and eclectic spiritual beliefs have complicated responses; the U.S. has not released about $2B in funds earmarked by Congress. Experts say the worst of the outbreak is still ahead of us. And a local spread of Marburg in Uganda was also reported.

The next financial crisis may be sparked by AI bubbles, according to industry experts, because massive debts have been taken out to turbocharge cutting-edge data centers and algorithms that our economy has become increasingly dependent upon. American banks in particular have seen private capital firms invest almost $200B when compared to China’s $16B, or the EU’s $14B. With public & more transparent sources, the sums grow much higher. But billionaires saw their wealth surge by an average of 25% from April 2025-2026, and the global total of billionaires rose 13% in the same time. The 425-page AI Index Report from April details some of these trends, and is stuffed with graphics & data.

>“Global corporate AI investment more than doubled in 2025. Private investment grew fastest at 127.5% and now accounts for 60% of the total….The United States continues to lead in global private AI investment, committing 23 times more than China….Generative AI is now used in at least one business function at 70% of organizations….AI has moved from an emerging technology to a key strategic priority….In 2025, total investment reached $581.69 billion, marking a 129.9% increase from the previous year. Private investments represented the largest share of activity with $344.66 billion, up 127.5% from 2024….AI’s role in education is expanding faster than the data needed to track it…” -selections

Margin debt is money that an investor borrows so he/she can buy securities, using their other investments as collateral. U.S. margin debt is at record highs ($1.4T), and growing still, as increasingly desperate investors seek ways to make money anyway they can. Some are using margin debt to bet on options on a leveraged ETF which itself has a value based on underlying assets like stocks or bond. Most of these bets are on Big Tech in some shape: chip manufacturers, SpaceX, etc. Some of the funds are large enough to push the price of some assets upwards—for a fraction of the day in which these trades are being made. What will happen when the reckoning comes, and a lot of big players have their debts called in?

The Bank for International Settlements—a sort of “Bank for Central Banks” representing 95% of the world’s GDP across 63 countries—published its 133-page Annual Report last week, and they write that AI (and the attendant investment in U.S. tech companies) has been a large stroke of luck that has kept an otherwise unimpressive economy growing. The still-high stock market helped continue trade flows between the U.S. and Asia, even though tariff chaos, fiscal & financial mismanagement, and the Iran War’s many consequences continue unfolding across the planet. They warn about potential market panic, rising inflation, swelling government debts, and organized hostility to AI and what it portends for the people of earth. The prospect of stablecoins coming in the not-too-distant future are not reassuring, either.

>“...wave of optimism about AI spurred a surge in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, lifting investment in the United States with spillovers along global supply chains….Rising energy prices once again pushed inflation well above central banks’ targets, echoing the post-Covid-19 inflation surge. Although the recent conflict in the Middle East seems to have abated, the economic effects of the Hormuz disruption may linger as the full restoration of physical energy supply takes time….Increasingly opaque financing of AI activities, high leverage in core markets and the growing footprint of private credit further undermine the resilience of financial markets. The current tension between exuberant risk appetite and elevated macroeconomic risks could unwind abruptly….With already high debt levels, governments face rising demands for spending amid energy shocks and geopolitical tensions…” -excerpts from the executive summary

An empty container ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. But transits are generally increasing through the Strait—but mostly heading out of it. Who wants to crew or insure a ship that might get stuck in the Gulf for three months? Empty oil & LNG tankers are reluctant to pass into the region, aware that it might soon be closed again.

U.S. tariffs coming later in July are set to increase prices on a range of goods, which prompted companies to buy now and stockpile for what may come. This, in conjunction with still high (but declining) oil prices pushed freight prices to 2-year highs. The Trump Administration is withdrawing from a North American trade agreement that they negotiated eight years ago.

The U.S. has now confirmed 31 cases of New World Screwworm in domestic wildlife, mostly in Texas but a few in New Mexico. A study of antibodies in about 3,000 Americans across the U.S. South concluded that humans there are much more likely to develop alpha-gal syndrome, the tick-spread disease that makes one allergic to red meats.

Research into university students across the OECD’s 38 member states found that the bloc has an average of 8% of students reading at the level of a 10-year old, or below. 9% on average had a grasp of mathematics equivalent to a ten-year old, or worse. These are not college-aged students; they are college students.

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Pakistani airstrikes against reportedly Taliban sites took out at least 36 people across Afghanistan last Sunday, injuring 160+ more. The Taliban responded with drones that were mostly intercepted; several people were injured. Some say the two countries are trapped in an escalation ladder which they cannot neatly exit.

Southern-Central Sudan’s city, El-Obeid (pop: ~500,000), is the latest battleground between government forces and the RSF rebels. Average drone killings across the large settlement amount to about two per day, plus injured. The population has swelled by about 100,000 IDPs from around Sudan, and government forces are building structures around the city in expectation of another grueling siege. Food and fuel has become much more expensive, preventing many from leaving but also pricing them out of staying—for what could be a bloody conclusion like the ethnic cleansing of Al Fashir last autumn.

Five people were slain in a mass shooting in a city in northern Germany. In Thailand, a boy drove into a procession of monks, killing nine Buddhist monks. A roof Collapse in Pakistan killed 14. Separatist rebels in Indonesia’s half of Papua Island killed an American pilot and burned his plane, which was allegedly used to support Indonesian military personnel.

18+ months of protests in Serbia pushed their President to announce his resignation—but that hasn’t quelled the protests, which began following the Collapse of a rail station in Novi Sad (pop: 375,000). The President, Vucic, is expected to assume the role of PM once he’s resigned from the Presidency. Meanwhile, a joint China-Russia military drill momentarily flew over South Korea’s air defense identification zone, a buffer zone near their airspace. Chinese naval vessels continue to trespass into waters claimed by Japan and also by the Philippines.

The Trump administration has restored access to Anthropic’s “Fable 5” model of Claude, and also lifted prohibitions on certain government agencies that prevented them from accessing their ultra-powerful model, Mythos. The administration also classified an Ecuadorean gang, the “Chone Killers,” as a foreign terror organization.

Colombia’s recent presidential runner-up, who lost by about 1% in the June 21 election, is threatening “peaceful civil disobedience” unless the conservative winner accedes to several of his demands. In Durban (pop: 3.3M), South Africa, protests against immigrants continued. Another attack and kidnapping in rural Nigeria saw at least three people killed by—and ten people later rescued from—Boko Haram fighters.

A conservative Catholic sect defied the Pope and appointed four bishops without Pope Leo XIV’s approval, sparking a crisis of authority in the Church. The so-called “schismatic act” was a long time coming; the rival group formed following the Vatican II conferences in the 1960s, and has since grown to include 750+ priests, hundreds of brothers/nuns, and about 600,000 followers worldwide. The Pope responded by excommunicating all priests of the rival society, and all lay members who “adhere formally” to the group.

Russian strikes killed 12 people on Monday between three large Ukrainian cities. Continuous Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel refineries has brought Russia into an unexpected energy crisis, and fuel rationing has begun across several Russian oblasts. A possibly-Russian bombing in Monaco wounded a Ukrainian multi-millionaire and his family. Ukraine made a deal to purchase 16 Saab fighter jets, beginning in 2027.

Early morning strikes on Kyiv killed at least 20 people, and wounding 80+ more. Ukraine struck a shipping terminal in St. Petersburg on Friday night. A think tank’s 12-page brief claims that the full-scale invasion has resulted in, so far, over 2,000,000 wounded and/or dead across Russia & Ukraine. Russian casualties are estimated at over 30,000 per month in 2026.

The U.S. is again still considering a return to full-scale hostilities against Iran if the two parties’ memorandum of understanding is jeopardized. Iran is intransigent on wanting to charge transit fees on ships of all kinds. The reality of drone warfare and mass cheap production is forcing the U.S. into a new production style for its munitions—McMissiles, and anything else that can be produced simply, cheaply, and in colossal quantities. They say “attritional, high-intensity warfare is a game of numbers” and industrial output may be the determining factor on the battlefield of tomorrow today. Iran is allegedly preparing for a mass casualty event at the long-delayed funeral of the late Ayatollah. The U.S. House voted against limiting support to Israel’s operations in Lebanon.

In Gaza, Monday strikes by the IDF killed eight Palestinians. It has been over 1,000 days since the October 7th attack of 2023, and there has been no end to the War that erupted. The ceasefire has proven to be sham, even if news outlets continue to call it such. The total number of dead Palestinians is reportedly over 73,000, while Israel suffered 2,000+ deaths. The number of wounded, sick, or displaced is much higher. The Board of Peace has been unsuccessful in stopping the War. Israel holds about 70% of Gaza’s territory, and the Israel-supported militias in Gaza have not yet made much progress into supplanting Hamas. The world’s attention shifted to Iran, and then got tired and moved on to something else.

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-COVID has cast a long shadow over society, according to this weekly observation from the capital of the U.S. state, Indiana. People are rude, housing is increasingly unavailable and unaffordable, the weather is incredibly hot, and people still have debts to pay.

-There are some serious Collapse aggregator-thinkers, and one of them made a self-post about his website, https://barrysmiler.com. It’s a pretty thorough website, if you have the time to do a deep dive into his scenarios, research, and perspectives. The guy who made the site is about 70 years old, judging from his About Me. Comprehensive posts like these tend to fly under the radar on r/Collapse, with few upvotes compared to memes and stories of the day.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, gossip, Love Island predictions (ugh), World Cup Polymarket bets, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?

This is just insane and infuriating...

Most people looking at the incoming CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) and UBI (Universal Basic Income) rollout think it's just about tracking where you spend your money. They are missing the true architecture of the trap. The system is moving past financial control—it is aiming for biological control.
They will not need to deploy police or physical force to modify your behavior. The modern panopticon doesn't need guards. The algorithm simply updates its parameters.
When your digital footprint, social credit, or carbon output violates the central consensus, your allowance for thermal regulation will drop. Your access to high-quality protein will be quietly suspended at the point of sale. Compliance will no longer be a political stance; it will become a strict metabolic requirement, enforced with surgical precision through digital starvation.
To defeat a control system governed entirely by code, you must alter the physical parameters of your own existence. You have to build what I call a "Thermodynamic Baseline."
The Exit Protocol:
Theory ends the exact moment your boots strike the earth. True independence is built in kinetic isolation, far beyond the invisible walls of the smart-city geofence.
Kinetic Shelter: Secure autonomous, off-grid water flow. Every calorie you cultivate independently is a closed-loop transaction the central node cannot track, tax, or terminate.
The Asymmetric Bridge: A physical node in isolation is economically vulnerable. You must extract your stored energy from the legacy fiat banking architecture before it is algorithmically decayed. Bitcoin protects your labor across time. Kaspa scales that power across space for daily use.
Physical Finality: Digital firewalls are useless on centralized exchanges. You need raw physical reality—a hardware wallet secured deep within the stone and soil of your property.
I just finished putting together a short, 4-minute visual documentary breaking down exactly how this programmable control grid operates and the architectural blueprint required to exit the system.
If you are auditing your vulnerabilities, watch the macro-analysis here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ1v0YW8YBc
Own the baseline, or the baseline will own you.