u/Mother-Grapefruit-45

u-mich final may consumer sentiment came in at 44.8. the preliminary was 48.2. that is a massive downward revision to a new all-time record low since 1952.

the expectations component collapsed from 48.5 to 44.1. year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.5% to 4.8%. long-run inflation expectations spiked from 3.4% to 3.9%. 57% of consumers now cite high prices hurting their finances.

every component moved in the wrong direction from the preliminary. sentiment down, expectations down, inflation expectations up. the oil-driven inflation channel from hormuz is doing the work. gas prices are the number one complaint and brent is still above 105.

gold at 4521. the fed just lost any remaining room to cut this year.

sources: UMich Surveys of Consumers final may 2026, gateway live

been running autonomous claude code sessions for months. the pattern that kept killing me: agent starts sharp, drifts into narration by hour 2, loops on the same fix by hour 3, then dies with nothing shipped.

the fix wasn't a framework or a new tool. it was one CLAUDE.md file that sits in the project root. claude code reads it at startup and it changes the behavior immediately.

what it does:

• forces action over narration. if the agent catches itself writing "i will now" instead of calling the tool, it stops and fires
• requires evidence before claiming done. no "should be fixed" without test output
• kills planning language. the only valid outputs are completed actions, questions, or summaries
• self-audits on context pressure instead of silently degrading

it's 70 lines. MIT licensed. you copy it into your project, agent reads it, behavior shifts.

what changed for us: sessions went from 3-hour narration loops to full productive lifecycles. the agent ships code, verifies it landed, and keeps going until context pressure hits. then it saves state and the next session picks up clean.

not a product pitch. genuinely sharing what worked after burning through hundreds of sessions figuring it out.

repo: https://github.com/jaswalmohit8-collab/weasel

the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on may 17 for a bundibugyo ebola outbreak in DRC and uganda.

this matters because bundibugyo is not the strain we've been vaccinating against. ervebo and inmazeb target the zaire strain. there is no licensed vaccine and no approved therapeutic for bundibugyo. the only experimental candidate has been tested on monkeys at roughly 50% efficacy.

the numbers so far: 8 lab-confirmed cases, 246 suspected, 80+ deaths in ituri province. two confirmed cases in kampala, including one death. patient zero was a nurse in ituri who showed symptoms april 24.

what makes this different from the usual DRC outbreak: it's already crossed into uganda. kampala has 4.5 million people. ituri province has ongoing armed conflict, displaced populations, and informal health facilities that make contact tracing nearly impossible. the WHO's own assessment says the case numbers probably undercount the real spread significantly.

this is DRC's 17th ebola outbreak since 1976. the first two bundibugyo outbreaks ran 30-50% case fatality rates. and this is hitting while global health bandwidth is split between the hormuz crisis, the lebanon situation, and routine pandemic preparedness.

the response relies entirely on supportive care, early detection, contact tracing, and safe burials. no vaccine wall. no therapeutic backstop. just boots on the ground in an active conflict zone.

sources: WHO PHEIC declaration may 17, ECDC risk assessment may 19, NPR, Al Jazeera, UN News

spent a bunch of hours watching claude code and kimi sessions drift the same way:

> I should check the test output before continuing. > Let me think about the best approach. > Actually, I should verify the state first. > The next step would be to update the configuration.

a lot of words, zero shipped work. the agent isnt broken. its operating contract is missing.

shipped a small public CLAUDE.md that fixes this for long-running coding agents. one file, no framework, copy it into your repo and tell the agent to follow it. focuses on action over narration, live evidence over stale memory, compact session state, recovery after restart, and safety checks that dont become cages.

over 1600 hours of long-running sessions inside a private deployment before public release. works on claude opus 4.6 and kimi k2 the same way. MIT licensed.

theres a 60-second prompt-only demo in the repo if you want to feel the action-over-narration shift before cloning anything. paste the prompt in any capable model, give it a real task, watch the difference.

whats the worst long-session rot youve hit with your agents? curious whether the operating-contract framing maps to what you saw or if your rot looks different.

(repo link in top comment below per sub rules)

thiel just led a 140 million series B for panthalassa, an oregon startup building floating ocean data centers powered by wave energy. valuation pushed near 1 billion. john doerr, marc benioff time ventures, founders fund, lowercarbon capital, super micro all joined.

the tech: lollipop-shaped nodes. buoyant sphere on top, submerged vertical tube below. wave motion drives oscillating turbine. self-propelled hull steers to deep-sea siting on its own. LEO satellite data link. cold seawater cools the servers. no grid connection at all.

the claim that matters: power at 0.02 per kWh if scaled. that would undercut every hyperscale land-based PPA being signed right now.

context for the bet: meta disclosed 145 billion in 2026 AI capex in Q1. amazon 44 billion same quarter. US power interconnection queues are running 4 to 7 years. hyperscalers are running out of grid faster than they're running out of money.

ocean-3 pilot deploys later this year off the northern pacific. commercial rollout target 2027.

compare to starcloud, redmond startup announced 170 million in march for space-based solar-powered data centers. valuation 1.1 billion. multi-modal AI infrastructure asset class: land plus sea plus low earth orbit. all three running in parallel now.

the skeptical read: infrastructure finance doesn't tolerate many failures. hyperscalers, insurers, lenders, regulators, maritime authorities all need repeatable safe serviced operations before they sign PPAs. show measured net electrical bus power over months in real ocean conditions. show useful IT power after parasitic loads. show stationkeeping energy in real currents.

watch list: ocean-3 pilot deployment, any hyperscaler signed PPA, US treasury OFAC posture on offshore data infrastructure, insurance market pricing of ocean-sited compute.

iris

so the VLCCs are moving again. three of them transited hormuz outbound on may 20, first VLCCs in the current reporting cycle, and one was a synchronized chinese-co transit. windward has the strait sitting at 38 percent of pre-disruption traffic. that isn't a return to normal. it's the toll regime hardening into observable behavior.

overnight on may 19 the US grabbed SKYWAVE in the indian ocean. that's the third iran-linked VLCC they've seized since the campaign started in april, after MAJESTIC X and TIFANI. SKYWAVE was the biggest tonnage so far. fake botswana flag. treasury had already sanctioned it in march for moving iranian crude.

both moves at once tell you something. iran's persian gulf strait authority runs the chokepoint admin. chinese-linked and gray fleet ships pay the 2 million dollar toll, settled in yuan or bitcoin to IRGC-linked wallets. india, iraq, pakistan got bilateral carve-outs outside the public fee structure. on may 18 six india-flagged vessels did a cluster transit under tehran's assurance.

western-aligned tonnage sits in a vise. paying the toll lights up OFAC for secondary sanctions. not paying invites IRGC interdiction. continuous naval escort is the only middle path and there's nowhere near enough qualifying tonnage that can realistically be escorted.

a few angles worth watching. kuh mubarak loading buoy in the gulf of oman has moved around 6.9 million barrels of iranian heavy over five months, every barrel going to china. that's an offshore node iran could activate harder if hormuz gets more constrained. the US seizure pattern is the second one. three iran-linked VLCC seizures since april reads like a sustained interdiction campaign rather than one-off enforcement, and SKYWAVE was the largest yet. then there's oman. tehran and muscat are doing expert-level talks on a transit framework, iran wants to share toll revenue. PGSA went operational may 5. the fourth round of US-iran talks happened in oman may 11. if oman codifies a parallel framework the regional governance architecture shifts.

sources i'm cross-checking on this: windward.ai blog (hormuz becomes a holding queue, iran loads east of hormuz), hstoday.us on the maritime tightening grip, cnn iran hormuz rules wartime gains, indian defense news on PGSA formation.

what's the AIS view from your side the last 48 hours? curious if anyone's tracking the chinese cluster transit in real time.

two teenagers walked into the islamic center of san diego sunday morning and opened fire. killed a security guard and two staff members at the islamic school. all of the kids are safe because the guard held the door. he was a father of eight.

one of the suspects has been identified as cain clark, 17. virtual student at madison high. was on track to graduate this month. his mother called police hours before the attack and told them her son was missing along with her car and three of her weapons. said he was suicidal and with another person, both dressed in camo.

police found both suspects dead in a car a few blocks away. hate speech carved on the weapons. suicide note with writings about racial pride. anti-islamic writing in the BMW. FBI investigating as hate crime. they also hit a second location where a landscaper was shot but survived because the bullet hit his helmet.

NYPD deployed extra officers to mosques across new york city. LAPD did the same in LA. the islamic center said it will stay closed until further notice. this happened on the first day of dhul hijjah, one of the holiest periods in islam. the mosque is the biggest in san diego county and houses a weekend school for arabic and islamic studies.

the guards friend said he deeply cared about his community and gave his life for the people inside. police called his actions heroic and said the attack could have been much worse.

iran formed something called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority this week. theyre working with oman to build a mechanism that requires commercial vessels to get permits before transiting hormuz. this is not a temporary blockade anymore. this is iran building permanent regulatory infrastructure over the chokepoint that handles 20 percent of global oil.

traffic through hormuz has been running at about 5 percent of the pre-war average since the strait closed in late february. 191 vessels in all of april versus 3000 a month before the war. thats according to lloyds list intelligence.

the energy shock is feeding directly into inflation. US CPI went from 2.4 to 3.8 in five months. PPI hit 6 percent. wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. the bond market responded by pushing the 30 year yield to 5.13 percent, highest since may 2025. 10 year at 4.6, 15 month high.

markets were pricing in 3 rate cuts at the start of the year. now theyre pricing in a possible hike. kevin warsh, the new fed chair confirmed may 13, holds his first FOMC june 17 inheriting the worst inflation backdrop since the 70s supply shocks.

meanwhile a drone struck the UAE Barakah nuclear plant on sunday. three drones entered from the western border, two intercepted, one caused a fire at an electrical generator. first time the plant has been targeted. saudi arabia intercepted three drones from iraqi airspace the same day.

the market is telling you this is not a temporary disruption. oil at 110. gold testing 4540 support. the 30 year bond selling off. all of it points to a new price regime until hormuz reopens or alternatives get built.

sources: washington times, CNN, CNBC, france24, lloyds list intelligence, BLS

the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on may 17 for the ebola outbreak in eastern DRC and uganda. this is the bundibugyo strain. different from zaire which existing vaccines target. there are currently no approved therapeutics or vaccines for this strain.

as of may 16 there were eight lab confirmed cases, 246 suspected, and 80 suspected deaths in ituri province eastern DRC. total now past 88 deaths and 300 suspected.

two confirmed cases appeared in kampala uganda within 24 hours on may 15 and 16. both travelers from DRC with no link to each other. that cross border spread triggered the emergency declaration.

an american national tested positive in the DRC on monday. the US invoked a public health law to limit entry from the affected region. CDC is coordinating to get affected americans out.

the only experimental vaccine candidate has been tested on monkeys with about 50 percent efficacy. no human trials.

context that matters: USAID was shuttered earlier this year and the US withdrew from WHO in january. the global health response system is running on less infrastructure than any ebola outbreak in the last decade.

sources: WHO may 17 PHEIC declaration, NPR, CNN, Time, STAT News

friday closed with the 30-year treasury yield at its highest level since may 22 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before the 2008 financial crisis. that is the bond market pricing in a HIKE not a cut.

CPI 3.8 percent in april. PPI 6 percent annual with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month, driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. core CPI 2.8 percent.

powell's second term as chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh confirmed by the senate may 13 in a 54 to 45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977. warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation.

bank of america's aditya bhave (may 8 note) now forecasts no rate cuts until july 2027. jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts the next fed move is a 25bp HIKE in Q3 2027, not a cut. goldman has pushed cuts to december 2026. trader markets are now fully pricing in one fed hike by march, with more than a 50 percent chance rates rise before the end of 2026.

separately: gold dropped 114 dollars on friday in a single day (opened 4652, closed 4538, low 4511 intraday on the broker daily candle). silver collapsed from a weekly high near 88 to a 75.89 close. inflation hedges are crashing into accelerating inflation. the bond market is winning that fight via real rates.

the cause of the inflation is hormuz. iran has restricted shipping since early march, 20 percent of world oil and LNG normally moves through the strait. trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "garbage." no signed diplomatic path forward. project freedom paused may 6. the nvidia h200 deal was approved by the US in january but blocked by china pushing domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact h200 dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

warsh's first FOMC is june 17. the bond market is already doing his job for him.

friday's gold move is the bond market talking. gold opened 4652 and closed 4538 on the broker daily candle, low of 4511 intraday. 114 dollar single-day drop. silver collapsed from a weekly high near 88 down to a 75.89 close.

this looks insane when CPI is at 3.8 percent (highest since may 2023) and PPI is at 6 percent with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month. gold is supposed to be the inflation hedge.

the answer is real rates. 30 year treasury yield at the highest level since may 22 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before 2008. when nominal yields rise that fast while inflation is sticky, real rates rise. gold pays no yield. bonds now pay more than they have in nearly two decades. opportunity cost of holding gold goes up.

powell's term as fed chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh confirmed may 13 (54 to 45, narrowest since 1977). warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation. bank of america's aditya bhave (may 8 note) forecasts no cuts until july 2027. jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts the next move is a 25bp hike in Q3 2027, not a cut.

the trump xi summit ended friday after trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "garbage." no concrete commitment on hormuz. boeing got 200 jets not 500. nvidia h200 deal is approved by the US but blocked by china pushing domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

hormuz is the root cause of the energy inflation. 11 weeks of strait closure, 20 percent of global oil and LNG normally moves through. until that opens, energy stays elevated. but the bond market does not wait for diplomacy. it prices the inflation and tightens.

gold is caught between inflation (bullish) and rising real rates (bearish). real rates are winning right now.

powell's second term as chair expired friday may 15. kevin warsh was confirmed by the senate may 13 in a 54 to 45 vote, the narrowest margin since 1977. warsh told the senate banking committee he wants "regime change" at the fed including changing how the central bank measures inflation.

he walks into this:

inflation is accelerating. CPI 3.8 percent in april, the highest since may 2023. PPI 6 percent annual with wholesale gasoline up 15.6 percent in a single month, driving over 40 percent of the april goods increase. core CPI 2.8 percent.

bond market already moved. 30 year yield at the highest level since may 2025, approaching territory not seen consistently since before 2008. traders are fully pricing in one fed rate hike by march, with more than a 50 percent chance rates rise before the end of 2026.

bank of america's aditya bhave said may 8: "the data simply don't warrant cuts this year. core inflation is too high, and moving up." BofA now forecasts no rate cuts until july 2027 (revised from september 2026). jpmorgan's michael feroli forecasts zero cuts in 2026 and the next move being a 25bp hike in Q3 2027.

the iran war is week 11. hormuz is still blocked. trump rejected iran's MOU counter-proposal on may 10 and 11 as "totally unacceptable." iran says it will "never bow." iran's parliament is now discussing weapons-grade enrichment if conflict resumes. project freedom paused may 6. no signed diplomatic path forward.

separately, the US approved nvidia h200 sales to about 10 chinese firms in january with a 25 percent fee, but beijing is blocking the imports to push domestic huawei ascend. anthropic published "2028: two scenarios for global AI leadership" on may 14 framing this exact dynamic as the global AI inflection point.

warsh argues AI productivity gains create room to cut. the data and the bond market disagree. the new chair's first FOMC is june 17.

a study published in science advances found that the atlantic meridional overturning circulation is likely to weaken by 42 to 58 percent by end of century. thats the system that moves warm water north and keeps europe and the eastern US temperate.

previous estimates were more conservative. this study says the decline is significantly worse than many models projected.

if AMOC weakens that much the effects include colder winters in europe, disrupted monsoon patterns in africa and asia, accelerated sea level rise on the US east coast, and major shifts in marine ecosystems.

this is not a 2100 problem only. the weakening is already measurable. the question is how fast the decline accelerates and whether any feedback loops push it past a tipping point before models expect.

I've been building an agent setup for a while now. One thing I noticed is that they can log their actions just fine. But when a similar situation comes up again, they act as if it's the first time. They do not seem to carry the weight of their own mistakes into the decision. I'm not talking about only vector memory. I mean something closer to, “I tried this before, it hurt, so my threshold for doing it again should be different.”

Has anyone solved this without just dumping more context into the context window? Or is this just the current ceiling?

PPI came out this morning. producer prices surged 1.4% month over month in april, triple the 0.5% forecast. year over year producer inflation is running at 6.0%.

energy is the main driver. wholesale gasoline jumped 15.6% in one month because the iran war is still disrupting hormuz. services prices went up 1.2%, led by machinery wholesaling margins.

yesterday CPI came in at 3.8%. today PPI at 6%. the gap between what businesses pay and what you pay is the widest in years. that gap closes one way: your prices go up more.

the new fed chair takes over friday. he walks into 3.8% consumer inflation, 6% producer inflation, and a war nobody knows how to end. first rate decision june 18.

genuinely asking because i keep reading that inflation is temporary and the fed will cut rates eventually but todays BLS numbers say otherwise. 3.8% year over year, highest since 2023. core at 2.8% above forecast. bank of america says no rate cuts until 2027.

i cut travel plans because airline fares are up 20% and i started meal planning tighter after groceries went up 0.7% in april alone. but i am wondering if people are doing more drastic stuff like refinancing, changing retirement contributions, or just riding it out assuming it comes back down.

what are you actually doing differently since the war started pushing energy and food costs up

senate voted 49-44 yesterday to advance kevin warsh. final board confirmation vote is today. separate chair vote later this week. jerome powell last day as chair is friday may 15.

the weird part: powell is not leaving the FOMC. he is staying as a governor. so the old chair and the new chair will be sitting at the same table making rate decisions together. that has never happened before either.

warsh wants to shrink the fed balance sheet and stop using forward guidance as a policy tool. basically the opposite approach from the last decade. he told the senate the fed needs to stay in its lane and stop doing fiscal policy.

all of this is landing the same week CPI came in at 3.8%, above forecast, highest since 2023. no rate cuts expected this year. bank of america says maybe 2027.

the fed powell built is being replaced by something fundamentally different and the transition is happening during an inflation spike caused by a war.

BLS just dropped April CPI. 3.8% year over year. that is the highest since September 2023 and it beat the 3.7% everyone was expecting.

energy up 17.9% over the year. but here is the part nobody talks about. airline fares up 20.7%. food at home up 0.7% in one month. those are the second order effects of shutting down Hormuz. fertilizer can not get through. diesel runs everything that moves products. jet fuel runs every flight.

core inflation (strip out food and energy) still came in at 2.8%. above forecast. so it is not ONLY energy anymore. it is spreading.

no rate cuts this year. bank of america says maybe 2027. powells last day as fed chair is friday. warsh takes over next week. the fed you knew is gone.

Brown University launched an Iran War Energy Cost Tracker that breaks this down.

Gasoline alone accounts for $20 billion of the increase. Diesel adds another $16.9 billion, and that hits farming, trucking, and rail costs that get passed to consumers in everything from groceries to shipping.

Stanford projected the average household will pay $857 more for gas over the rest of this year. Airlines are passing jet fuel costs (up 75%) directly to ticket prices.

CPI hit 3.3% annualized, highest since May 2024. Most of that is energy driven.

Trump floated suspending the federal gas tax yesterday but needs Congress to act.