r/DividendKings

Statistically, Following Momentum Beats Betting on a Turnaround -  How NAV Delta Helps Me Filter Income Funds
▲ 12 r/DividendKings+4 crossposts

Statistically, Following Momentum Beats Betting on a Turnaround - How NAV Delta Helps Me Filter Income Funds

One thing I’ve been trying to build into my income strategy is the idea that it’s usually better to follow strength than to keep betting that a weak fund is suddenly going to reverse.

Of course, the biggest money can sometimes be made if you catch a turnaround early. If a fund has been beaten down and then its NAV trend suddenly improves, that can be very profitable. But statistically, that’s harder to do consistently and a lot of research on momentum and trend-following shows that assets with strong recent performance often have better odds of continuing to perform well in the near term than weak assets suddenly becoming winners.

That’s basically why I use my NAV Delta approach

For income funds, I don’t only look at yield. A 15%, 20%, or 30% yearly distribution rate can look amazing but if the NAV keeps bleeding, then part of that income may just be capital erosion in disguise. I track whether the fund’s NAV is holding up over different windows:

- Trailing 12-month (TTM) NAV Delta = longer-term structure

- 3-month NAV Delta (3M) NAV Delta = recent momentum

- Since Inception (SI) NAV Delta = since-inception picture, especially for newer funds

- 70/30 score = 70% TTM + 30% 3M, or 70% SI + 30% 3M for newer funds without TTM.

The idea is not that this predicts the future perfectly, it does not!
Momentum can reverse and strong funds can break down. That is why diversification is essential to my strategy because without it, NAV Delta analysis can turn into just another concentrated bet.

I prefer income funds built on broad baskets of holdings instead of single-stock ETFs because one company-specific shock can break the whole thesis even if the yield looks great. Single-stock income ETFs can still have a place but for me they’re more tactical, I use them when they are the only practical way to get exposure to a specific sector or theme I want. Otherwise, I push to get the income from a diversified fund where the NAV trend is supported by many holdings, not one stock having to behave well.

My basic rule

I would rather add to funds where the NAV Delta trend is already stable or improving, showing positive momentum, instead of trying to guess the exact bottom in a fund with a deteriorating NAV.

That does not mean I never buy turnarounds, it just means I treat them as lower-odds/tactical bets, not the core of my portfolios. For more detail on my NAV Delta framework, how I use it for entries/exits, and my overall portfolio strategy management, here’s the original post I wrote when I started this subreddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/EngineeredIncome/comments/1re036m/how_ive_been_living_from_my_dividends_2_years_now/

Academic research behind the general idea

- Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993 — momentum in stock returns  

  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x

- Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen, 2012 — time-series momentum across asset classes  

  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.11.003

- Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen, 2013 — value and momentum across markets  

  https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12021

- Hurst, Ooi & Pedersen, 2017 — century-long trend-following evidence  

  https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2017.44.1.015

- Daniel & Moskowitz, 2016 — warning that momentum can crash  

  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.12.002

So for me, NAV Delta is not about chasing past performance blindly, it’s more about asking: is this income fund actually preserving its base while paying me, or am I just being paid with my own capital while hoping for a turnaround?

u/IncomeFrame — 12 hours ago
▲ 20 r/DividendKings+1 crossposts

World central banks purchased +41 tonnes of gold in May, the largest monthly addition since November 2025

u/RobertBartus — 16 hours ago
▲ 16 r/DividendKings+3 crossposts

I Turned My Dividend Avalanche Into a 2.35%/Month Reinvestment Basket

I received dividends from these high-income ETFs and checked both my monthly yield on cost and their NAV Delta profiles before reinvesting. My goal wasn’t just chasing the highest payout, I wanted a mix that still targets about 2.35%/month while adding both broad exposure and a higher-yield tactical sleeve.

Dividends received, yield on my cost basis

- TDAX — TDAQ Lift ETF

  - Yield on cost: 1.90%/month

  - Cost basis: $24.59

  - NAV Delta: SI +2.21% | 3M +18.36% | TTM +2.21% | Score +7.06%

- GPTY — YieldMax AI & Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF

  - Yield on cost: 2.83%/month

  - Cost basis: $42.95

  - NAV Delta: SI -13.20% | 3M +17.70% | TTM -7.97% | Score -0.27%

- SDTY — YieldMax S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF

  - Yield on cost: 2.06%/month

  - Cost basis: $44.67

  - NAV Delta: SI -17.67% | 3M +3.63% | TTM -8.22% | Score -4.67%

- QDTY — YieldMax Nasdaq 100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF

  - Yield on cost: 3.08%/month

  - Cost basis: $40.93

  - NAV Delta: SI -20.00% | 3M +8.22% | TTM -8.80% | Score -3.69%

- CHPY — YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF

  - Yield on cost: 4.52%/month

  - Cost basis: $59.08

  - NAV Delta: SI +87.65% | 3M +37.86% | TTM +42.37% | Score +41.02%

- YMAX — YieldMax Universe Fund of Option Income ETFs

  - Yield on cost: 3.48%/month

  - Cost basis: $8.36

  - Formal NAV Delta: SI -60.16% | 3M +1.90% | TTM -42.34% | Score -29.07%

  - But post-strategy-change, I view it separately because the fund changed approach.

- SPYT — Defiance S&P 500 Target Income ETF

  - Yield on cost: 1.65% at $17.59

  - NAV Delta: SI -14.08% | 3M +6.49% | TTM -4.70% | Score -1.34%

I reinvested into this basket

- SDAY.NE — Hamilton Enhanced U.S. Equity DayMAX ETF

  - Allocation: 33%

  - Current monthly yield: ~1.46%

  - NAV Delta: SI +4.75% | 3M +6.47% | TTM +4.75% | Score +5.27%

  - Role: broader U.S. equity income exposure

- AVGY.TO — Harvest Broadcom Enhanced High Income Shares ETF

  - Allocation: 67%

  - Current monthly yield: ~2.79%

  - NAV Delta: SI +46.41% | 3M +6.99% | TTM +12.92% | Score +11.14%

  - Role: higher-yield tactical Broadcom income sleeve

Why this basket

The 33% SDAY.NE / 67% AVGY.TO mix targets roughly 2.35%/month. SDAY.NE gives me broader U.S. equity exposure, while AVGY.TO provides the income boost needed to reach my monthly yield target. I’m not just chasing yield, I’m using NAV Delta to avoid funds where the capital base is eroding too aggressively.

u/IncomeFrame — 3 days ago
▲ 3 r/DividendKings+1 crossposts

Looking for Covered Call funds base on the Dow Jones

With Google joining the Dow, I am looking to add a small position in a Dow Jones, dividend fund.

Only name I know is DJIA

Any Others ??

reddit.com
u/Sufficient_Mud_3179 — 3 days ago
▲ 21 r/DividendKings+2 crossposts

June Dividend Report + Full Portfolio Breakdown (2%+ Monthly Income Strategy)

Alright so today it's July 1st which means all my dividends from June have entered so I can calculate my monthly dividend yield.

Here's my June numbers:

  • Started the month with a total market value of 411,787.50 CAD
  • Ended the month at 411,663.76 CAD
  • That’s -123.74 CAD in market value so -0.03%
  • Collected 11,509.65 CAD in dividends for June, an increase of +16.38% compared to previous month.
  • Total dividend yield for June (before taxes): 2.80%
  • So total economic gain (price Δ + income) = +11,385.91 CAD

That puts my total monthly return for June at +2.77% before taxes. For comparaison the S&P 500 is down -1.1% over the same period so I beat the market!

My engineered income strategy still delivered, like every month, I reinvested $3,900 CAD in more income funds and used the rest to cover my expenses.

At my current portfolio yield, that should add roughly $109 CAD/month in future income, all else being equal. That's the beauty of compounding, every month I buy a little more income-producing assets which generate even more income the following month.

Here’s my full portfolio breakdown as of July 1st, 2026, ranked from highest to lowest allocation.

Core Engine (Top Allocations)

  • CHPY – Tidal Yield Semiconductor ETF – 10.66%
  • BCAT – BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust – 6.44%
  • EGGY – NestYield Dynamic Income ETF – 6.23%
  • UTES – Evolve Utilities Enhanced ETF – 5.29%
  • EGGS – NestYield Guard ETF – 5.02%
  • LFE – Canadian Life Companies Split Corp. – 4.92%
  • ENCL – Enhanced Canadian O&G ETF – 4.60%
  • GPTY – AI & Tech Yield ETF – 3.96%

Secondary Layer (2–4%)

  • CDAY – Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Equity DayMAX ETF – 3.93%
  • HHIS – Harvest Diversified High Income ETF – 3.39%
  • RS – Real Estate Split Corp. – 3.30%
  • BANK – Evolve Canadian Banks & Lifecos Enhanced ETF – 3.16%
  • ECHI – Ninepoint Enhanced Canadian High Income ETF – 2.89%
  • GGT – Gabelli Multimedia Trust – 2.55%
  • CCOE – Harvest Cameco Enhanced High Income ETF – 2.45%
  • SPCI – Space Industry Income ETF – 2.43%
  • QDAY – Hamilton Enhanced Technology DayMAX ETF – 2.06%

Tactical Layer (1–2%)

  • CLM – Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund – 1.78%
  • NXG – NextGen Infrastructure Income Fund – 1.58%
  • GLDI – Gold Covered Call ETN – 1.43%
  • CAIQ – Calamos ETF – 1.43%
  • CRF – Cornerstone Total Return Fund – 1.39%
  • FFN – Financial 15 Split Corp. – 1.37%
  • SLJY – Junior Silver Miners ETF – 1.29%
  • DF – Dividend 15 Split Corp. II – 1.25%
  • GIAX – Global Equity & Income ETF – 1.24%
  • CCHI – Ninepoint Cameco High Income ETF – 1.23%
  • YMAX – YieldMax Universe ETF – 1.18%

Satellite Positions (<1%)

  • HAKY – Amplify ETF – 0.95%
  • XPAY – Roundhill S&P 500 Target 20 ETF – 0.92%
  • OILY – Evolve Canadian Energy Enhanced ETF – 0.92%
  • IWMW – Russell 2000 BuyWrite ETF – 0.92%
  • YUNH – Purpose UnitedHealth Yield Shares ETF – 0.91%
  • XXV – Simplify Exchange Traded Fund – 0.89%
  • OILK – ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF – 0.77%
  • DGS – Dividend Growth Split Corp. – 0.71%
  • KSLV – Kurv Silver Enhanced Income ETF – 0.70%
  • SDAY – Hamilton Enhanced U.S. Equity DayMAX ETF – 0.62%
  • NVII – REX NVDA Growth & Income ETF – 0.62%
  • ABHI – Ninepoint Barrick Highshares ETF  – 0.61%
  • SPYT – S&P 500 Target ETF – 0.52%
  • HHIH – Harvest High Income Equity ETF – 0.50%
  • LLHE – Purpose Eli Lilly Yield Shares ETF – 0.26%
  • UNHW – Purpose UnitedHealth Yield Shares ETF (USD) – 0.17%
  • TDAX – TDAQ Lift ETF – 0.12%
  • ECAT – BlackRock ESG Capital Allocation Trust – 0.07%
  • QDTY – YieldMax Nasdaq 100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF – 0.06%
  • XQQI – Nasdaq Income ETF – 0.04%
  • SDTY – S&P 500 0DTE ETF – 0.03%
  • IVR – Invesco Mortgage Capital – 0.03%
  • XLKI – Technology ETF – 0.02%

Biggest changes since my June 1 snapshot portfolio breakdown

  • EGGY jumped from 3.98% → 6.23%, becoming my third-largest holding.
  • EGGS grew from 3.68% → 5.02%, now part of my Core Engine.
  • CDAY increased from 2.42% → 3.93%.
  • CCOE increased from 1.75% → 2.45%.
  • USOI, SLVO, USOY, IGLD are no longer in my portfolio.
  • New positions include NVII, ABHI, SDAY, LLHE, UNHW, TDAX, QDTY, IVR and XLKI.

Overall, my portfolio remains highly diversified but it has shifted away from commodity covered-call ETNs (USOI, SLVO, USOY) and toward NestYield funds, Canadian equity income and healthcare/thematic income strategies.

Since I started using Hermes Agent AI, I’ve been able to automate a daily review of my income funds right after market open, focusing on NAV Delta which tell me if the fund’s net asset value is holding up after paying distributions. I track it across since inception, trailing 12 months and 3 months then use a simple quality score: 70% trailing 12-month NAV Delta and 30% 3-month NAV Delta. The idea is to give more weight to the longer-term trend while still catching recent changes quickly.

In June, the AI-assisted NAV Delta process also helped me apply a more disciplined version of dividend capture. I’m not just buying funds randomly before ex-dividend dates, my rule is quality-driven. When a fund’s NAV Delta score falls below around -10%, I start considering trims, if it gets near -20%, I consider liquidating the position entirely. If that fund has already passed its ex-dividend date, I’m still entitled to receive that month’s distribution. Then with the sale proceeds, I try to rotate into stronger funds with better NAV Delta scores whose ex-dividend dates have not passed yet so in that case, the same capital can qualify for distributions from two different funds in the same month.

Dividend capture is usually difficult because in theory, a fund’s market price should drop by roughly the amount of its dividend after the ex-dividend date. But in practice, market prices are also affected by NAV performance, option income, market sentiment, underlying holdings, volatility and fund demand. So when I rotate into a fund with a strong NAV Delta score, there is a better chance that its price holds up better after the distribution or at least drops less than the dividend amount. That’s where the rotation (dividend capture) can create real additional income instead of just moving money around. In June, this dividend capture adds roughly C$1,000+ in extra dividend, something I would not have been able to monitor and execute efficiently without an AI agent tracking the data daily.

u/IncomeFrame — 5 days ago
▲ 13 r/DividendKings+3 crossposts

OILK Just Failed My Income Test: I’m Out and Reallocating to HAKY + ECHI.TO

I decided to liquidate my OILK position and reinvest into HAKY and ECHI.TO and the main reason is because OILK latest dividend dropped below my income threshold. My rule for U.S. funds is around 1.5%/month and OILK latest payout no longer comes close.

Latest yield data:

- OILK: latest distribution $0.241, price $46.30, yield ~0.52%/month, fails my threshold.

- HAKY: latest distribution $0.462, price $29.91, yield ~1.54%/month, passes my threshold.

- ECHI.TO: latest distribution C$0.155, price C$11.90, raw yield ~1.30%/month, adjusted estimate ~1.50%/month, now attractive after the price drop.

Latest NAV Delta profile:

- OILK: 3M -14.65%, TTM +14.03%, SI -54.31%, score +5.43%

- HAKY: 3M +26.20%, TTM +19.82%, SI +19.82%, score +21.73%

- ECHI.TO: 3M -1.65%, TTM +19.14%, SI +19.14%, score +12.90%

For me, OILK no longer offers enough monthly income to justify the commodity-linked volatility and weak long-term NAV profile. I’m moving into HAKY for stronger NAV momentum and income above my U.S. threshold and ECHI.TO because the price decline pushed the yield higher while also giving me a more defensive exposure which I like in case of a market crash.

Like always, not financial advice, just sharing my income-focused portfolio move.

u/IncomeFrame — 4 days ago
▲ 7 r/DividendKings+9 crossposts

Before retiring, I intend to organize my strategies and share the knowledge I have acquired; it is my sincere hope that this content will prove beneficial to everyone.

I have come here for two simple reasons: first, to share the knowledge I have gained, and second, to connect with like minded individuals. When many people see my performance figures, they often fall prey to an entirely understandable misconception namely, that my success is merely a matter of luck. They imagine that I achieved overnight fame, that I amassed my wealth through some high risk, "all or nothing" gamble, or that I succeeded solely by relying on insider information. The reality, however, is quite different: everything I have achieved stems from a pivotal breakthrough I experienced during my trading career.

Today, my primary focus centers on several key areas: my foremost objective is to align with the prevailing trend (specifically by closely monitoring EMA levels and overall market direction); secondly, I prioritize confirming momentum (utilizing a combination of RSI and volume analysis to validate trading signals); third, I consistently prioritize risk management over potential returns; fourth, I adhere to using smaller position sizes until specific trading patterns have been sufficiently validated by the market; and finally, I strictly abide by my predetermined exit rules, never allowing emotions to dictate my decisions.

Furthermore, I pay particular attention to the stability of cross cycle trends for instance, how a specific stock performs relative to its 5-day, 13-day, 34-day, and 55-day moving averages while also keeping a close watch on changes in trading volume and liquidity. I assess the quality of a trend by analyzing the structure of its moving averages, the robustness of the stock's price trajectory, and the interplay between price and volume; concurrently, I strive to identify trading opportunities that allow me to ride the trend and generate consistent returns across multiple timeframes.

This constitutes merely a small fraction of my complete trading system; yet, it is precisely because I consistently adhere to these principles that I am able to filter out random price fluctuations and concentrate my energy on high quality stocks specifically those premium assets that are either in the "coiling" phase, poised to make a move, or already "geared up for takeoff."

No single strategy can guarantee profits every single day. Even to this day, I still encounter occasional losses. However, the most critical difference today is this: my losses are strictly contained within a controllable range, while the returns generated by my profitable trades are significantly more substantial. Most importantly, I consistently adhere to a trading style characterized by clear logic and strict discipline. Each week, I share my personal watchlist, my analysis and assessment of the market, and relevant risk considerations. All of this content is provided completely free of charge; I do not offer specific trading signals or paid trading tools, nor do I provide any form of guarantee regarding investment returns. I hope you find this information helpful.

Currently, I am in the process of compiling all the materials I have gathered a comprehensive collection spanning my entire investment journey, from the moment I first entered the market right up to the present day. If you are interested in this and believe these resources might be of value to you, please feel free to reach out to me at any time; I will share everything I know without reservation.

Given that many friends have left messages requesting that I share my insights, I am currently in the process of organizing the relevant content. I may have inadvertently overlooked some private messages or comments; if you have not yet received a reply from me, please feel free to leave me another message at any time. As I am currently occupied with these sharing activities, please contact me via private message.

u/Ok-Basil2753 — 7 days ago
▲ 4 r/DividendKings+1 crossposts

Looking for a list of Covered Call ETFs based on Chip Companies

Looking for a list of Covered Call ETFs based on Chip Companies.

I think there was one that started with an "e" ?

If so can't seem to find it.

I have SOXY, CHPY,

What am I missing from the list ??

reddit.com
u/Sufficient_Mud_3179 — 9 days ago
▲ 27 r/DividendKings+2 crossposts

3.32% Monthly Yield Paid My Bills

This month’s income basket did exactly what I built it to do. I received dividends from:

- GLDI — ETRACS Gold Shares Covered Call ETN: 3.47% monthly yield on cost, basis $160.04

- TDAX — TDAQ Lift ETF: 1.90% monthly yield on cost, basis $24.59

- GPTY — YieldMax AI & Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF: 3.43% monthly yield on cost, basis $42.95

- SDTY — YieldMax S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF: 1.88% monthly yield on cost, basis $44.67

- QDTY — YieldMax Nasdaq 100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF: 2.24% monthly yield on cost, basis $40.93

- CHPY — YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF: 5.25% monthly yield on cost, basis $59.08

- YMAX — YieldMax Universe Fund of Option Income ETFs: 3.62% monthly yield on cost, basis $8.36

Weighted monthly yield equivalent on my cost basis: 3.32%

I hit my monthly reinvestment goal so instead of reinvesting this round I withdrew the dividends and used them to help pay bills. That is the part I care about most, the income is becoming real cash flow, not just numbers on a screen.

I know these funds are volatile with high monthly yield is not free money. NAV erosion, option strategy risk, sector risk and distribution cuts are all part of the game. Collect the income, hit the target and turn the distributions into actual household cash flow.

u/IncomeFrame — 10 days ago
▲ 9 r/DividendKings+3 crossposts

SPCI Just Added SpaceX Exposure Through Options

I noticed something interesting in the latest Tuttle Capital Space Industry Income Blast ETF (SPCI) holdings.

SPCI now shows exposure to SPCX options which is linked to Space Exploration Technologies / SpaceX exposure. It’s not direct SpaceX stock but the fund holds option positions tied to SPCX like this:

- SPCX 12/18/2026 C210

- 45 call contracts

- Market value: about $76,500

- Portfolio weight: about 0.68%

- If exercised, that represents exposure to 4,500 shares at a $210 strike

- Exercise notional about $945,000 or roughly 8.36% of SPCI’s NAV

So while the marked value is small today, the option structure gives SPCI meaningful upside exposure if SPCX/SpaceX-linked value moves higher.

Definitely something to watch for anyone following space-themed income ETFs.

u/IncomeFrame — 11 days ago
▲ 17 r/DividendKings+2 crossposts

SLVO was paying monster income… but the NAV Delta finally made me trim hard

I decided to trim 75% of my SLVO - UBS ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETN position. The income is crazy but after looking at the NAV Delta profile, I don’t really want that much of my portfolio tied to a fund that’s eroding this badly.

Latest SLVO NAV Delta profile using a ~$67.77 end proxy:

- TTM NAV Delta: -15.39%

- 3M NAV Delta: -16.97%

- Since inception: -9.68%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: -15.87%

So yeah the yield is huge but the NAV trend is not something I want to ignore also SLVO payout is super variable. Using the trailing 12-month avg distribution, the trimmed 75% slice was producing around 5.53% monthly yield and after reinvesting into the new basket should produce around 2.42% monthly yield so I’m knowingly giving up about 3.11 percentage points of monthly yield on that portion of my wallet to improve quality and diversification.

I’m reinvesting the proceeds into this basket:

- CHPY — YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF: 20%

- EGGY — NestYield Dynamic Income ETF: 25%

- CCOE.TO — Harvest Cameco Enhanced High Income Shares ETF: 15%

- CCHI.TO — Ninepoint Cameco High Income ETF: 10%

- ABHI.TO — Ninepoint Barrick High Income ETF: 15%

- LLHE.TO — Harvest Eli Lilly Enhanced High Income Shares ETF: 5%

- QDAY.NE — Hamilton Enhanced Technology DayMAX ETF: 7%

- YUNH.NE — Purpose UnitedHealth Group Yield Shares ETF: 3%

Why these? Mostly because they screen way better on NAV Delta while still paying high monthly income. Here's some of the NAV Delta scores:

- CHPY: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +64.36%, yield ~3.60%/mo

- EGGY: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +26.30%, yield ~2.53%/mo

- CCOE.TO: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +23.42%, yield ~2.33%/mo (~2.68%/mo adjusted)

- CCHI.TO: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +20.13%, yield ~2.03%/mo (~2.33%/mo adjusted)

- ABHI.TO: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +32.73%, yield ~1.86%/mo (~2.14%/mo adjusted)

- QDAY.NE: NAV Delta score (70% TTM + 30% 3M) +28.87%, yield ~1.49%/mo (~1.71%/mo adjusted)

The new basket comes out around 2.42%/month weighted yield with a much better weighted NAV Delta profile.

So basically, less headline income but hopefully way less NAV destruction. I’m aiming to preserve my capital better here and would rather give up some unstable payout now than keep chasing a 6–10% monthly coupon while the underlying value keeps bleeding.

u/IncomeFrame — 13 days ago
▲ 13 r/DividendKings+2 crossposts

Selling SLVO: Rotating Out of Tier 3 NAV Decay While Keeping Silver Exposure

I’m liquidating my position in SLVO - ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETN and reallocating the proceeds into a basket that keeps some silver exposure while improving my NAV Delta profile.

The new allocation:

- 70% SLJY — Amplify SILJ Junior Silver Miners Covered Call ETF

- 10% XPAY — Roundhill S&P 500 Target 20 Managed Distribution ETF

- 10% BCAT — BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust

- 10% GIAX — Nicholas Global Equity and Income ETF

This is not because I suddenly think silver is dead, silver can pull back hard and still remain a valid long-term theme. The problem is not silver itself, the problem is that SLVO’s NAV/indicative value profile has deteriorated into my Tier 3 danger zone across multiple timeframes.

Why I’m selling SLVO?

For income funds, I don’t only look at the dividend. I track NAV Delta which asks a simple question: Is the fund preserving its underlying value after paying distributions or is the payout slowly eating the fund?

For SLVO, using the updated implied IV of $67.19, the NAV Delta profile looks like this:

- TTM NAV Delta: -16.12%

- 3M NAV Delta: -18.43%

- SI NAV Delta: -10.45%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: -16.81%

That puts SLVO in my Tier 3 danger zone.

My NAV Delta framework:

- Tier 1: ideal / sustainable, better than -5%

- Tier 2: acceptable / tactical, -5% to -10%

- Tier 3: danger, -10% to -20%

- Tier 4: self-destructive, worse than -20%

SLVO is not just weak on one window, it's showing deterioration on the short-term, trailing-year and since-inception views. That is enough for me to move on.

Why I’m willing to take a loss?

Part of my income strategy is accepting that I will sometimes sell at a loss.

That may sound wrong at first but for high-yield funds, holding just because the position is red can be dangerous. An unrealized loss only tells me where my personal cost basis is, it does not tell me whether the fund itself is preserving capital.

NAV Delta is more useful for this type of product because it tells me whether the fund structure is still healthy.

If a fund keeps paying a big distribution but the NAV or indicative value for ETNs keeps deteriorating, the income may be coming at the cost of future capital. In that case I would rather take the loss, preserve what capital remains and redeploy into funds with better NAV Delta profiles.

This trade is not about panic selling, it's about replacing a deteriorating income wrapper with a stronger basket.

Replacement basket

70% SLJY - Amplify SILJ Junior Silver Miners Covered Call ETF

- TTM NAV Delta: +16.32%

- 3M NAV Delta: -13.31%

- SI NAV Delta: +16.32%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: +7.43%

- Estimated monthly yield: ~2.54%

This is the main replacement. I still want silver exposure but I want it through a wrapper with a better NAV Delta profile than SLVO.

SLJY is not risk-free, the 3M number is weak which tells me the recent silver/miner pullback is real but its TTM and SI NAV Delta are still positive and the overall 70/30 score is far healthier than SLVO.

So this is not me abandoning silver, it is me rotating from a weaker silver-income product into a stronger silver-income product.

10% XPAY - Roundhill S&P 500 Target 20 Managed Distribution ETF

- TTM NAV Delta: +0.23%

- 3M NAV Delta: +6.64%

- SI NAV Delta: -8.10%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: +2.15%

- Estimated monthly yield: ~1.71%

XPAY gives the basket broader S&P 500 exposure. It is not the highest-yielding piece but it adds stability and reduces the risk of making this entire rotation another single-theme silver trade.

10% BCAT - BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust

- TTM NAV Delta: +4.77%

- 3M NAV Delta: +7.59%

- SI NAV Delta: -22.00%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: +5.62%
- Estimated monthly yield: ~1.66%

BCAT adds a diversified capital-allocation sleeve. The since-inception number is weak but the current TTM and 3M profile are positive which is what I care about most for this rebalance. This is meant to be a stabilizer, not a maximum-yield position.

10% GIAX - Nicholas Global Equity and Income ETF

- TTM NAV Delta: -2.15%

- 3M NAV Delta: +16.42%

- SI NAV Delta: -13.21%

- 70/30 NAV Delta score: +3.42%

- Estimated monthly yield: ~1.91%

GIAX adds global equity-income exposure and a strong recent 3M NAV Delta profile. It helps diversify away from being too concentrated in silver or single-sector option-income funds.

Basket summary, target allocation:

- 70% SLJY

- 10% XPAY

- 10% BCAT

- 10% GIAX

Estimated basket monthly yield:

- SLJY contribution: 70% × 2.54% = 1.78%

- XPAY contribution: 10% × 1.71% = 0.17%

- BCAT contribution: 10% × 1.66% = 0.17%

- GIAX contribution: 10% × 1.91% = 0.19%

Total estimated monthly yield: ~2.31%

Weighted basket NAV Delta score:

~+6.32%

Compared with SLVO:

- SLVO 70/30 NAV Delta score: -16.81%

- Replacement basket 70/30 NAV Delta score: +6.32%

That is the entire point of the trade, I am giving up the very high headline SLVO yield but I am upgrading the NAV Delta profile, keeping some silver exposure and diversifying the proceeds across broader income funds.

Sometimes the right move is to take the loss, protect the remaining capital and redeploy into a better NAV Delta profile.

u/IncomeFrame — 12 days ago