r/StockMarket

With earnings season mostly wrapped up, companies in the S&P and Nasdaq have posted over 25% YOY earnings growth in Q1 2026, the highest growth since 2021.

Most of this growth has come from tech companies, especially those involved in semiconductor manufacturing, which makes perfect sense given the growing level of capex from hyperscalers.

My question:
Is the earnings growth as good as it appears? Or is it being largely bolstered by the way accounting treatment works for capex?

Semiconductor companies are able to recognize revenue immediately. But the expenses from hyperscalers don't reflect the vast majority of capex in the current quarter. Capex recognition is deferred over time, roughly 5-6 years from what I've read. So all the revenue benefits from chip companies are showing up immediately, but the costs are deferred over a long period. The net effect in the current quarter is extremely positive GAAP net income, making current quarter income look incredible.

Simplified example:
Meta pays $100 to Nvidia/other chip companies in Q1. Chip companies recognize $100 revenue. Meta only recognizes $5 in expenses in Q1 with the remaining $95 to be recognized over time.
Overall Q1 GAAP net income: $100 - $5 = $95.
Actual net increase in cash: $100 - $100 = $0

Do accounting rules not heavily inflate current quarter earnings? Possibly to an extremely misleading degree?

And the earnings reports show hyperscalers are actually running out of cash and are heavily resorting to debt to fund capex. They haven't actually generated much of a return off their chip investments yet. Not to say they won't, but they will need to quickly otherwise the recognition of the capex will come back to bite GAAP earnings very hard in the coming years.

Meta reportedly plans to cut thousands of jobs while shifting billions toward AI infrastructure. And I keep thinking about this more than I probably should. Because at some point someone has to ask the question nobody seems comfortable asking out loud: if AI displaces enough workers across enough industries, where does consumer demand actually come from? Like… who's buying things?

People throw around "UBI is coming" like it's a fun thought experiment, but I don't think they've sat with the actual math. Governmemts are already buried in debt. Tax revenues tied to labor would shrink at the exact moment you'd need to financially support millions of people who no longer have jobs. That's not a policy problem. That's a structural contradiction. And I don't have a clean answer for what comes next. More money printing? Some kind of corporate AI tax? Permanent stimulus that slowly stops feeling like stimulus and just becomes the baseline? I genuinely don't know, and I'm skeptical of anyone who says they do.

What bothers me most is that the market keeps cheering, productivity goes vertical, margins expand, investors are happy, at least, those bought in AI stocks,. But that math only works while people still have income to spend. The moment that breaks down, the whole thing looks very different in hindsight. Maybe nothing dramatic happens. Maybe the transition is slow enough that societies adapt. But we're clearly accelerating toward something, and it doesn't feel like anyone in a position to actually shape this is taking it seriously enough. That part worries me more than the layoffs themselves.

Anthropic is experiencing such explosive growth that it is expected to report its first-ever operating profit in the second quarter of 2026, according to internal financial projections reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Anthropic generated $4.8 billion in revenue in Q1 2026.

It expects revenue to jump to $10.9 billion in Q2 2026, a 130% increase in just one quarter.

Anthropic is projected to earn $559 million in operating profit for the quarter.

This is significant milestones because most AI companies are still losing large amounts of money due to the enormous cost of computing infrastructure.

Much of this growth is being driven by strong enterprise adoption of Anthropic’s Claude AI models, particularly coding and agentic tools that help businesses automate software development and complex workflows.

At the same time, Anthropic’s operating efficiency is improving, with computing costs expected to decline from 71 cents to 56 cents for every dollar of revenue, showing that the company is scaling while becoming more cost-effective.

This performance marks a major turning point for the AI industry, demonstrating that generative AI companies can reach profitability much faster than many investors expected. It also strengthens Anthropic’s position as one of the most formidable competitors to OpenAI and has fueled speculation that the company could soon command a valuation approaching $900 billion, placing it among the most valuable private technology firms in the world.

Mind-blowing growth is about to propel Anthropic into its first profitable quarter

Revenue reached $81.6 Billion, up 85% year over year adjusted EPS was $1.87, an increase of 140% year over year

Data Center revenue hit an all time high of $75.2 Billion, up 92% compared to the same period last year
Q2 Outlook:Revenue is expected to be $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. NVIDIA outlook excludes data center compute revenue from China.
GAAP and non GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.9% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
GAAP and non GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $8.5 billion and $8.3 billion, respectively.

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, stated
The build out of AI factories the world largest infrastructure expansion in history is accelerating at a stunning pace. AI agents have arrived they are working efficiently, creating real value, and rapidly scaling across every enterprise and industry. With its unique strengths, NVIDIA sits at the heart of this transformation the only platform that can run across all cloud platforms, power all frontier technologies and open source models, and scale to wherever AI is created, from hyperscale data centers to the edge.
Share Repurchases:

NVIDIA announced an additional $80 billion in share repurchase authorization and raised its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share.
Data Center
First quarter revenue reached a record $75.2 billion, up 21% from the previous quarter and 92% year over year

Announced the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform, featuring the NVIDIA Vera CPU the world first processor designed specifically for embodied AI and NVIDIA BlueField®-4 STX, an accelerated storage infrastructure for embodied AI factories.

NVIDIA Dynamo 1.0 entered production this open source software boosts generative and embodied inference performance on NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs by up to 7x and is seeing widespread global adoption.

Announced NVIDIA NemoClaw for the OpenClaw agent platform NVIDIA OpenShell for autonomous AI agents with built in privacy and security controls and the NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, an open source platform for building autonomous enterprise AI agents.

Advanced the development of sophisticated open AI models through NVIDIA Nemotron, NVIDIA BioNeMo, and NVIDIA Ising models, as well as the formation of the NVIDIA Nemotron Alliance.

Expanded collaboration with Google Cloud to accelerate the advancement of embodied and physical AI, including the introduction of new A5X instances powered by NVIDIA Vera Rubin, and a preview of Google Gemini models running on NVIDIA Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra GPUs via Google Distributed Cloud.

Expanded the AI ​​ecosystem through a strategic partnership with Marvell, leveraging NVIDIA NVLink Fusion and collaboration in silicon photonics technology.

Announced multi year strategic agreements with Coherent ($COHR.US$), Corning ($GLW.US$), and Lumentum ($LITE.US$) to accelerate innovation in advanced optical technologies.

Announced the NVIDIA RTX PRO 4500 Blackwell Server Edition GPU

The market has given everyone a great opportunity. Stupid board member squabbles. Everyone on reddit knows the normies making peanuts are the ones driving the fashion and the path forward in the company. The board members waving around their shares is really a distraction from the recent products.

I took some time today to go through LULU's recent product releases and they are fantastic. Future looking, fitting both trends and professionals a like. They are moving quickly away from leggings and blending style with athleisure.

There are a lot of valid concerns around U.S. growth however its currently priced as a business that is rapidly shrinking. I expect U.S. growth to turn around with their recent foray into new styles and cloths as well as the eventual end of tariffs and import controls. Price inflation is here to stay, LULU is just going to see insane margins when import tariffs are lifted.

- Growth Segments -

International (Global)+22%+15% - Core growth engine compensating for domestic headwinds.
China Mainland+28% (Q4)+26% (Q4) - Surging demand and highly resilient guest engagement.
Americas / North America-1%-3% - Saturated market facing heavy competition from rising brands.

Forward P/E of 11-12 and current P/E of 9.5

Position: 900 @ 123.75

Let me take you back to late 2020. GameStop was a dying mall retailer. Revenue declining. Short sellers had stacked 140% of the public float in short positions. The company had roughly 69.75 million shares in the float, with only about 23 million actively traded. Market cap sat somewhere around $1.3–2 billion. Shorts were piling in because on the surface, GME looked terminal.

Then it went to $483 intraday.

I've spent time deep in the data on HMR - **Heidmar Maritime Holdings** \- and I'm not here to say this is the next GME because the memes will fly. I'm saying the **structural mechanics** are nearly identical - and HMR has something GME never had: a fundamentally strong, growing, profitable underlying business.

Let's run the comparison side by side.

# The Structural Comparison: GME Pre-Squeeze vs HMR Today

**Metric**	**GME (Pre-Squeeze, Jan 2021)**	**HMR (Today, May 2026)**
Public Float	\~69.75 million shares​	Under 6 million shares​
Short Interest as % of Float	**140%+ of public float**​	0.26% - *structurally near-unborrowable*​
Insider / Strategic Lock-Up	Low - insiders actually *sold* during squeeze​	**90%+ locked by insiders not lending & buying only**
Market Cap	\~$1.3–2 billion pre-squeeze	\~$64 million
Revenue (Annual)	$5.09 billion (declining -6% YoY)​	\~$55M TTM base, **+373% YoY growth**
Business Trajectory	Declining retail - stores closing	Accelerating fee platform – fleet expanding
Debt Profile	Carrying significant debt load	**Zero debt**
CEO Buying Shares?	CEO George Sherman - no notable open market buys	**CEO buying above market for 3 consecutive months**
Institutional Ownership	\~177% of float (over-lent, over-shorted)​	Very low - pre-discovery phase
Catalyst Source	Reddit coordination + short covering pressure	Float mechanics + real earnings growth + macro tailwinds

# Where HMR Actually Beats the GME Setup

GME had the float mechanics. What it didn't have was a business improving in real time.

GameStop's fiscal 2020 revenue came in at $5.09 billion - but that was a number *declining year over year*. The short sellers weren't entirely wrong about the fundamentals. The squeeze worked despite a weakening business, driven entirely by float mechanics and social media coordination.​

**HMR is the opposite.** The float mechanics are here AND the business is accelerating:

* **373% year-over-year revenue growth** \- not projected, already booked and auditable
* **76% revenue growth forecast for 2026** \- compounding on top of a large base
* **55%+ gross margins** \- this is software-company territory hidden inside a shipping ticker
* **$13.2M operating cash flow** \- the GAAP net loss is noise from one-off IPO costs and non-cash stock comp; the underlying engine is profitable
* Cash NEARLY a Majority of MCAP! - Like where GME is now 😄
* **Zero dilutive equity raises since listing**  unlike most microcaps that fund growth by printing shares

When GME squeezed, shorts eventually covered because they had no choice. The float was trapped. The business gave them no fundamental reason to reverse course on the squeeze - it resolved purely on mechanical pressure.

With HMR, the fundamental case *reinforces* the mechanical case. As earnings grow, the re-rating pressure compounds on top of the float squeeze potential.

# The Float: HMR Is Tighter Than GME Ever Was

GME pre-squeeze had a float of \~69.75 million shares with \~23 million actively traded. HMR has a float **under 6 million shares** with 90%+ locked by insiders who are not lending.

The GME squeeze happened with a float nearly **12x larger**.

Short sellers need to borrow before they short. With 90%+ of HMR locked by strategic holders who won't lend, there is almost no inventory available. The CEO himself has said: *"The only thing I'm worried about is if I keep buying, there will be no float left."*

GME shorts had 140% of the float sold short - creating the nuclear-level short squeeze pressure. HMR's short interest sits at 0.26% - meaning the squeeze hasn't even started. It also means there's no systematic short base propping up a bear thesis. The stock is purely supply-constrained.

Any meaningful institutional or retail demand hits a float of under 6 million shares with nowhere to go.

# The Insider Signal: The Opposite of GME

One of the most overlooked parts of the GME story is what insiders were actually doing during the squeeze. GameStop board members and executives were *selling* \- Chair Kathy Vrabeck and director Raul Fernandez sold shares from January 13 to 16. When outsiders were loading up, insiders were cashing out.​

HMR is structurally different. CEO Pankaj Khanna owns **45% of the company personally** and has been **buying shares above market price for three consecutive months straight - zero sales**. Combined with strategic holders, 90%+ of shares are locked.

This isn't a meme narrative. The person with the most information about this business is the one accumulating the most aggressively. That's a signal GME never had.

# The Business: Fee Platform, Not Boat Operator

The most common mistake in valuing HMR is the comp set. Every metric that applies to IMPP, STNG or FRO - NAV, Price-to-Book, vessel utilization - is irrelevant here.

HMR **owns zero ships**. It is an asset-light fee platform that earns 1.75% of gross voyage revenue - whether rates are $50k/day or $500k/day. One VLCC voyage at today's rates generates \~$350,000+ in commission. It gets paid on volume, not on ownership.

The correct comp is a software/services platform re-rating on earnings growth. And on that basis - 4x forward PE vs 15-20x for peers, market cap below annual revenue - it is one of the most mispriced securities on NASDAQ.

GME at $17 before the squeeze was mispriced by the market. HMR at $1.14 is mispriced by the market. The difference is HMR is mispriced upward in fundamentals while GME was mispriced downward.​

# The Macro Tailwind GME Never Had

GME's squeeze was endogenous - it was purely about the float, the social coordination, and short covering pressure. There was no external macro catalyst making GameStop's revenue grow faster.

HMR is **positively asymmetric to global volatility**:

* Strait of Hormuz escalation directly expands HMR's fee base - unlike vessel owners facing insurance blowback
* A VLCC was already fixed at nearly $500,000/day - the rate environment is live, not forecast
* CEO on record: "Beginning, not the end" of the tanker cycle - with 18–24 months of upside stated explicitly
* 9–12 month restocking window creating a 10–20% jump in tanker demand
* **5 additional crude tankers just added** to commercially managed fleet (1× 2026 eco-design Suezmax, 2× Suezmax, 1× VLCC, 1× MR1) - more ships in a strong rate environment at zero balance sheet cost

Every geopolitical disruption that terrifies vessel owners is a **revenue expansion event** for Heidmar.

# The Credibility Foundation GME Lacked

GameStop was a dying mall retailer. That was the entire bear thesis, and it wasn't entirely wrong.

HMR has a **40-year operating history**. Clients include Shell, BP, Chevron, Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, and Glencore. The largest energy traders on earth run cargo through Heidmar. That's not a story. That's a 40-year track record of institutional trust that cannot be manufactured.

The moat is deepened by **eFleetWatch** \- a proprietary tech platform built over 20 years with real-time voyage data, tracking and performance analytics across every vessel and route. A competitor cannot replicate this in 12 months.

# The Setup in One Line

GME: Dying business + crowded short + tiny float = mechanical squeeze.

HMR: **Accelerating business** \+ near-zero short interest (structurally unborrowable float) + tighter float than GME ever had + CEO buying hard + macro tailwind + zero debt + 55% gross margins + analyst targets 3-6x above current price.

GME squeezed despite its fundamentals. HMR has everything GME had mechanically - and everything GME didn't have fundamentally.

The question isn't whether the setup exists. The question is when awareness arrives.

*Not financial advice. All data sourced from public filings, Their YouTube Channel, SEC disclosures, and company statements. Do your own due diligence.*

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!