Roughly $717K QBTS bullish flow on 5/18, then the quantum government funding story hit after.
The timing definitely makes it ... interesting. Could be informed positioning or just someone pressing the theme before confirmation or well, an insider trade.
Either way, QBTS is up 25% today
The massive tail risk / hedge got opened on the $65 and $45 strikes ahead of the NVDA earnings and very crowded positioning in tech.
This does not mean a crash is imminent but it does provide cheap convexity exposure in case volatility explodes
Hedging/bearish flow is also hitting the SOXL as more participants are preparing for increased vol especially given that NVDA tends to drop on earnings (4,5% median drop last 10 earning releases)
Looking at this as buying opportunity, esp if we see a move to $200 where positioning has built up.
Institutions seem to be increasing exposure to offshore drilling with RIG
RIG added $1.6B of backlog in Q1, bringing total backlog to about $7.1B. That about a 29% increase.
Exposure from the options market is also growing on higher strikes
NE, whichs is the other stock with notable flow added about $565M of new contract value, bringing backlog to around $7.5B -an 8% increase.
Higher for longer is being priced in.
Positioning on USO is building on $160 as well
Institutional bullish flow is starting to outpace bearish trades in SLV again.
I’m watching is $80 because a sustained move above it could build more momentum towards $95 where options market positioning is building at $95 and market makers are providing supportive flows.
On top of this, the more flows we see in silver ETF/ETP products, the stronger the thesis for a supply squeeze becomes
Support has started to build up at &75
For now, the flow is turning constructive again, but the $80 breakout is the trigger.
I’m watching a volatility setup right now that I think is worth paying attention to.
Using Andrew Thrasher’s Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami framework, the idea is that volatility spikes are often preceded not simply by low VIX, but by compressed VIX and VVIX.
A low VIX reading alone is not enough. The stronger signal is when VIX has been trading in an unusually tight range, measured by its 20-day standard deviation.
The same idea can be applied to VVIX, which measures volatility-of-volatility.
The paper’s tested compression thresholds are roughly VIX 20d stdev ≤ 0.86
VVIX 20d stdev ≤ 3.16
Right now, we are seeing :
VIX stev at 0.79
VVIX at 2.46
That is not a guarantee that VIX explodes tomorrow, but it does suggest the market is moving from a calm-vol regime toward a more fragile volatility regime.
On top of thism a normal relaxed market usually has a healthy contango structure.
When that curve starts flattening like rn while VIX and VVIX dispersion are already compressed, I view it as a warning that the “easy short-vol” environment may be weakening.
The silver market is projected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year as 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from inventories since 2021 and the 2026 deficit is expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces.
These deficits are normally absorbed by above-ground stocks but once those stocks become thinner or less available, price becomes more sensitive to incremental demand.
At end-March 2026, London vaults held 884 million ounces of silver, but only 28% was not tied to exchange-traded products.
That was an improvement from the September 2025 stress low of 17%, but still far below the estimated 65% available share at end-2019.
In other words, the portion that is potentially available for market liquidity is much smaller.
Buying an existing silver ETP share in the secondary market does not automatically remove new metal from the market, but when net inflows lead to new share creation, authorized participants must deliver physical silver into the trust.
This shifts metal from the potentially available pool into ETP custody.
Based on the end-March 2026 base of 884 million ounces in London vaults and 28% not tied to ETPs, the potentially available pool was roughly 248 million ounces.
Under a simple static-stock sensitivity, 100 million ounces of additional ETP metal demand sourced from London would reduce the available share to about 16.7%, below the September 2025 stress-low level of 17%.
| Incremental ETP metal buying | Available London share |
|---|---|
| 0 Moz | 28.0% |
| 50 Moz | 22.3% |
| 100 Moz | 16.7% |
| 150 Moz | 11.0% |
| 200 Moz | 5.4% |
| ~248 Moz | ~0% |
This table is not a forecast. It is a stress-case illustration of how quickly ETP inflows can tighten London liquidity if offsetting metal flows do not arrive.
Institutional buying has picked up since May 6th
The optipns market positioning has already built up and targeting $80 as well as market makers are likely to provide support at $70.
Silver’s semiconductor and AI demand is increasing
Silver’s semiconductor exposure is concentrated in the most demanding parts of the chip value chain - backside metallisation, die attach, flip-chip and micro-bump interconnects, thermal-interface materials, lid attachment, image sensors, photonics and advanced packaging.
In die attach silver epoxy, silver paste and sintered silver materials bond the die to the package while helping move heat away from high-power chips.
In flip-chip attach and micro-bumps, silver is used in tin-silver or tin-silver-copper solder systems such as SAC solder. These connections carry power and signals between the die and the package. As chiplets, 2.5D/3D packaging and AI systems increase interconnect density, even small amounts of silver per connection become more relevant because of the millions of bumps and packages.
SIlver is also used in the thermal-interface materials and lid attachment - to improve heat transfer. This is especially relevant for high-power GPUs, AI accelerators, RF devices and data-center processors.
Photonics adds another layer. Optical interconnects, transceivers, sensors and high-speed data links are becoming more important as AI data centers move more data between GPUs, memory, servers and racks. Silver’s role is not that every photonic component uses large amounts of metal, but that its conductivity, reflectivity and thermal properties make it relevant in contacts, coatings, sensors, conductive inks and optoelectronic packaging.
This demand is coming in an already tight physical market facing repeated deficits and limited available inventory.
With a revised an expected 46.3 Moz deficit in 2026 silver has remained in deficit for six consecutive years, steadily drawing down above-ground inventories and reducing the market’s buffer against investor-flow or industrial-demand shocks.
We now have demand increase, ETF/ETP demand increase and positive positioning.
This will remain in play until SLV is above $65-70
The silver market is projected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year as 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from inventories since 2021 and the 2026 deficit is expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces.
These deficits are normally absorbed by above-ground stocks but once those stocks become thinner or less available, price becomes more sensitive to incremental demand.
At end-March 2026, London vaults held 884 million ounces of silver, but only 28% was not tied to exchange-traded products.
That was an improvement from the September 2025 stress low of 17%, but still far below the estimated 65% available share at end-2019.
In other words, the portion that is potentially available for market liquidity is much smaller.
Buying an existing silver ETP share in the secondary market does not automatically remove new metal from the market, but when net inflows lead to new share creation, authorized participants must deliver physical silver into the trust.
This shifts metal from the potentially available pool into ETP custody.
Based on the end-March 2026 base of 884 million ounces in London vaults and 28% not tied to ETPs, the potentially available pool was roughly 248 million ounces.
Under a simple static-stock sensitivity, 100 million ounces of additional ETP metal demand sourced from London would reduce the available share to about 16.7%, below the September 2025 stress-low level of 17%.
| Incremental ETP metal buying | Available London share |
|---|---|
| 0 Moz | 28.0% |
| 50 Moz | 22.3% |
| 100 Moz | 16.7% |
| 150 Moz | 11.0% |
| 200 Moz | 5.4% |
| ~248 Moz | ~0% |
This table is not a forecast. It is a stress-case illustration of how quickly ETP inflows can tighten London liquidity if offsetting metal flows do not arrive.
Institutional buying has picked up since May 6th
The optipns market positioning has already built up and targeting $80 as well as market makers are likely to provide support at $70.
Silver’s semiconductor and AI demand is increasing
Silver’s semiconductor exposure is concentrated in the most demanding parts of the chip value chain - backside metallisation, die attach, flip-chip and micro-bump interconnects, thermal-interface materials, lid attachment, image sensors, photonics and advanced packaging.
In die attach silver epoxy, silver paste and sintered silver materials bond the die to the package while helping move heat away from high-power chips.
In flip-chip attach and micro-bumps, silver is used in tin-silver or tin-silver-copper solder systems such as SAC solder. These connections carry power and signals between the die and the package. As chiplets, 2.5D/3D packaging and AI systems increase interconnect density, even small amounts of silver per connection become more relevant because of the millions of bumps and packages.
SIlver is also used in the thermal-interface materials and lid attachment - to improve heat transfer. This is especially relevant for high-power GPUs, AI accelerators, RF devices and data-center processors.
Photonics adds another layer. Optical interconnects, transceivers, sensors and high-speed data links are becoming more important as AI data centers move more data between GPUs, memory, servers and racks. Silver’s role is not that every photonic component uses large amounts of metal, but that its conductivity, reflectivity and thermal properties make it relevant in contacts, coatings, sensors, conductive inks and optoelectronic packaging.
This demand is coming in an already tight physical market facing repeated deficits and limited available inventory.
With a revised an expected 46.3 Moz deficit in 2026 silver has remained in deficit for six consecutive years, steadily drawing down above-ground inventories and reducing the market’s buffer against investor-flow or industrial-demand shocks.
Shortage indicators: inventory drawdown since 2021 and forecast 2026 market deficit.
We now have demand increase, ETF/ETP demand increase and positive positioning.
This will remain in play until SLV is above $65-70
One of the biggest bullish AMD trades we posted a couple of days ago hit on May 1. The bearish follow-up looked like a hedge, and AMD is now up 17%.
The day before Amazon reported, there was a roughly $45 million bullish options trade placed on the May 15 contract.
It was one of the largest single options trades I’ve seen recently, and the fact that it came immediately before earnings makes it v interesting.
This does not automatically mean insider information as institutions hedge, express views, or structure trades for many reasons, but when a trade of that size hits right before earnings its worth looking into
And Amazons numbers were v strong:
The question is whether this was simply a well-timed institutional bet, a hedge, or an example of smart money positioning ahead of a known catalyst.
Either way, this is exactly why I track large options flow. It does not always predict the move, but when size, timing, and catalyst all line up, it becomes much more interesting.
If the UAE goes forward and actually leaves OPEC, it might ramp up production by about 3 million barrels, as it has been building up capacity since 2020 and will not longer be restricted by OPEC.
Imagine if there is peace with Iran, Iranian oil returns to the market, sanctions are lifted, and the UAE starts pumping massive amounts of oil.
After scarcity comes glut - and it might be a big one.
