Why do people usually prefer a high reward-to-risk ratio and a low win rate? It is very confusing to me. I personally prefer a lower reward-to-risk ratio and a higher win rate. Mathematically, neither should be inherently better. For example, a 30% win rate with a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio is equivalent to roughly a 70% win rate with a 0.71:1 reward-to-risk ratio, assuming the same risk per trade.

If anything, I think there may even be a statistical advantage to a higher win rate. With a low-win-rate strategy, the observed win rate may sit only slightly above the breakeven win rate, which means you can need hundreds of additional trades before you can be reasonably confident that the edge is real rather than noise.

I have been back testing and forward testing my support and resistance strategy for months now and my win rate is about 42% with a 2:1 risk reward ratio. I’m planning on starting with my real money shortly but I’m curious on what methods to journal there are

I've recently been looking at swing trading as a bit of a side hustle/top up for my longer term positions within my ISA. I've done a bit so far with relative success (around 25% this month, however this includes trimming some winners I've had)

For those that are doing it in a S&S ISA, what sort of strategies are you doing and are you primarily focused on LSE stocks or stocks listed on other exchanges nothing T212 has a FOREX fee and can eat into your returns.

I bought AMD sometime ago around $165 thinking it'd reclaim and reverse. It opened, dropped and took me out, then recovered over the next few days. that one still pisses me off tbh, because it did eventually do what I thought it'd do.

I think i was just too early, i bought the weakness before there was really any confirmation buyers were stepping in. And yeah, I've had a few like that lately. big selloff, starts basing, volume picks up and I'm thinking ok maybe this is the turn... then nope, just keeps grinding lower and hits my stops lol.

So now I'm trying to wait for the reclaim or retest before getting in. I missed a couple moves doing that too, maybe, being early doesn't really feel like an edge. if I keep hitting my stops before the move even starts then idk maybe I'm just front-running my own trade at this point lol.

idk, do you guys wait for confirmation too or am I just reading the tape completely wrong?

Kind of an interesting week if you were watching individual names.

$MU had the earnings reaction, $INTC finally ran into a pretty important resistance area after that run, and $NKE went the other direction... now I'm mostly watching to see where buyers actually start showing up.

The overall market wasn't exactly straightforward either. Yields were causing problems most of the week, then the weak jobs number Friday flipped the mood pretty fast. Nasdaq somehow still finished green on the week while the S&P and Dow didn't.

I went through all three stocks plus the bigger market picture in my full weekly market wrap.

Going into next week I'm mostly interested in whether Friday actually carries over... or gets faded.

I have a goal of earning 5000$ in the next 5 years. That's the amount of money I lost on the CFDs, in my country it's A LOT so it's hard to cope with this loss. 5 year span allows me to write off my loss for the IRS, so no tax on earnings. What I want to ask is: do you have any recommendations for books/ articles/ tools that could help me learn and achieve this goal? I don't want to gamble my money away as I did to this point, so I know i have a lot to learn.

Previously posted a setup 4 months ago, and anyone that had joined had multiple opportunities to trim and take profits. I think SoFi is near its next bottom. Sofi has been pretty range bound. Its TBV provides a certain valuation floor where it appears institutions are willing to step in to buy under $15.

It's recently been in a downtrend again with an increase in 30m in shares shorted in the past 1 - 1.5months. Think they're likely to cover fairly soon, possibly after another push to test the floor or under buying volume.

One to eye for entries with an appropriate risk management direct shares over calls or potentially ITM leaps if pushed below $15 and don't recommend more than 20% margin on entries in case of continued weakness.

Earnings end of the month, TBV should rise to ~$7.41 based on their guidance (historically accurate/reliable) placing 2x TBV at $14.82 which is likely to be another spot to find institutional support given the companies growth rate. Not fully showing the confirmation on MACD momentum currently but given the years baseline and the fundamentals of the business I think this is one to move up on your watchlist.

Potential failure for a breakdown: Macro and overall market liquidity/movement.

Personally would base my stop loss on a confirmed breakdown below $14.75 and size with that in mind.

https://preview.redd.it/yu08evm9wath1.png?width=524&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbf18482df76d304e7acd89b83be54aadf9d422e

$ABT printed a bullish-harami on October 2, closing at 97.50 after a sustained decline from the late-August high. Price has given back much of the rally that carried it from the high 80s into the 116 area, and the pattern showed up right at the recent low.

What makes me interested is where that pause is happening. $ABT is sitting in the Fibonacci golden pocket, while RSI is 28.57 and a MACD cross is in play. Relative volume was 0.99x, so there was nothing unusual about the volume behind the candle. Taken together, I read the setup as a potential pause in a stretched decline rather than a random bullish candle in the middle of nowhere.

The obvious counterargument is that this is still a stock that has been selling for several weeks, so the harami could simply mark a temporary pause before the decline resumes. That is why the candle itself matters less to me than how price handles its high and low over the next few sessions.

A close above the mother candle’s high within the next few sessions confirms the setup; a close below its low invalidates it, with a stop a few ticks below that low.

https://preview.redd.it/me7zzk6l56th1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbb9cdaaf18e884bb8bcba9608a9182a8c0bff0c