So midweek Meta announced they're going to start selling their "excess" AI compute to outside customers. Meta jumped 10% on the news.

https://preview.redd.it/ad1jc29aohbh1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=f904b16f5a5b9d3f9230289634a0bea3a4e3f050

Everything downstream of it though got cooked. The news did not sit well with a lot of people holding the semiconductor supply chain trades. The entire AI supply chain trade right now is underwritten by scarcity, and one of the biggest capex spender in the market just said it has spare capacity.

Six months ago the hyperscalers were telling us there wasn't enough compute in the world for the next 20 years; now META says it has extra? You don't sell surplus of something that's scarce.

The selloff started in the neocloud compute providers and spread down the stack, feeding what feels like a rising "bottleneck fatigue" across the whole space.

The bears got loud: the trade is overcrowded, semis are pushing 20% of the S&P 500, the dot-com comparisons are back, and capital looks like it's flowing out of the sector as a whole, the great rotation.

https://preview.redd.it/884oepeyohbh1.png?width=1108&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c7c0d44a401cd6c67613787253a22c56bf3a285

But in my opinion, the doom and gloom is overblown.

After all how does the stock of the company selling AI compute jump 10% while the industry supplying it collapses?

IMO, META's move is not an admission of a glut. Instead, it proves compute is monetizable, and Meta's $27B commitment to Nebius still stands. The selloff is a misunderstanding of the news by a segment of market that doesn't have the slightest clue where AI is going, and is just responding to any daily stimulus.

And the fundamentals did not change overnight. Semi supply is still constrained: Micron's CEO says memory is in the tightest supply the industry has seen in years, with the shortage expected to run into 2028. Demand is not slowing either: $MU just blew out earnings, carries $2,000+ analyst price targets, and even has Trump publicly pumping the stock.

If anyone recalls November selloff, then historic rally , this feels eerily the same.

https://preview.redd.it/wpyhnmsophbh1.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=465db6b97d6b1caf54260f843eadba871af4480e

So what can we expect over the next coming weeks? Months? And how can we position ourselves intelligently.

Of course nobody really knows but we can look at how the biggest players are positioning themselves and what the markets are reflecting overall to get a good gauge.

The short term

Let's look at where the most short dated, out the money, high-conviction option premiums this week went. These represent big directional big bets by high level institutional investors. Depending on the skew we can get a good a sense of which direction they are betting betting on.

We can also flag any extra large single contract premiums for further conviction.

Secondly we can take a look a the gamma levels to gauge what the key levels that we can expect to hold and bounce off of.

https://preview.redd.it/8g2gu8zrphbh1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b1c209273e353549e3ceb506849042f97430070

Based on the stats here we have a couple of setups that seem interesting short term. Ranked by confidence:

- $LITE : 86% Bullish whale premium. Price currently nearing the $700 wall. Long 720-750 | Target of $820 | Caution below $690.

- $BE: 90% bullish premium, lots of volume $160 million worth . Strong Gamma wall at $240, look for bounces of that wall. LONG $240-$250 | Target : $300 and up | Caution below: $230

- $AMAT: 82% Bullish whale premium. More upside gamma pull then downside, this one is a little longer play but overall still definitely bullish outlook. LONG: $590 and up | Target : $800 | Caution below: $550

- $AMD : 71% Shorterm Bullish premium. A staple in semi trade. Long the lower half of $450–520 only, target $600, out below $400. The zone is too wide to chase.

https://preview.redd.it/1sq34s8vphbh1.png?width=1530&format=png&auto=webp&s=f51434e1cba7e9c37652e805687e28768e1f803b

The long term

If your horizon is years and you believe overall in the AI boom, then this week's drop is a discount across the board.

Nonetheless we can still do some very basic analysis to see which ones are the most "on sale" at the moment.

To asses long term outlook, we can see we can where institutions are placing there longer horizon LEAPS bets, and then do some fundamentals analysis to see which ones still give us the best deals.

https://preview.redd.it/5jltmtgxphbh1.png?width=1470&format=png&auto=webp&s=1287fec7f558e188ebdccf29de35dae76b9d0287

Reading the tape and fundamental comparisons, here are the winners ranked by confidence:

- $MU: The golden child of the memory stack. Took in$892M of LEAPS calls against $243M of puts, at 13x forward earnings with 91% revenue growth expected. Add in thirds: some in $900–975, more at $900, the rest only after a test of the wall holds

- $AMAT: the cleanest chart in the group, above every line that matters. Add in $500–610, stop adding below $450.

- $SNDK: Another staple of the semi trade. Strong business, strong margins and right now the biggest winner, so let it come to you. Accumulate at $1,500, stop adding below $1,300.

https://preview.redd.it/etgwysc8qhbh1.png?width=1684&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8e58d13d8ab919ef5c59599d995e077223f588b

Of course this is not financial advice by any means. This is just my read on the market. There's like an infinite way to look at the same data and of course, I have my bias.

Please lmk what y'all think !

AmEx has quietly gone risk-on across every timeframe and it's now pressing the 352–353 zone — the prior high where sellers stacked it last time. Big money's been accumulating the whole way up, so this is a retest of the ceiling, not a fresh breakout yet. Price is sitting right under the wall, which makes it a "let it prove it" spot, not a chase.

https://preview.redd.it/owrew5u4ijbh1.png?width=2918&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bd42acaf8fba63143710fecdc08e8fe011417a5

The play: a clean close over 353.58 opens 355–357, then 358–362, with room toward 368. Don't buy the poke into the high — the better entry is the 344–348 pullback if it dips there first. What kills it: back under 344 and the setup's dead; lose 334 and the whole thing's off.

Thin holiday tape + earnings season kicking off = keep size honest. Starter only until it closes over the level and holds — no front-running the breakout.

Full trade plan with entries, targets & options plays in my community

I trade forex only and I'm a swing trader, I avoid the screentime and trading most of the time.

Throughout the day I scroll in Tradingview and see what's up in the market, let's say I identify 3 setups that are ready and worth a shot, I jump on lower timeframes watch everything closely and most of the time I leave without taking any trade, by tomorrow morning I see that they would have been invalidated or hit SL. And in rare cases I take a trade here and there and they work just fine or If they don't I manage the trades and try to get out earlier to manage risk.

Trading less is far more effective than trading more, I'm very very careful on picking trades, and this is just my opinion love to hear yours, drop it below.

I run a rules-based breakout system and log every trade. Base rates from
the 131 breakout entries in its locked five-year test window (2021 to
2026), because almost nobody posts these:

- 56.5% of entries lost money (74 of 131).
- The single most common outcome was a loss between 5 and 10 percent.
  That's not a coincidence, it's where the volatility stop lives.
- Median trade: minus 4.0%.
- And the book still made money, decisively: mean +10.5% per trade,
  average winner +34.2% against an average loser of minus 7.7%. Roughly
  one trade in eleven ran +40% or more. No trade lost more than 20%.

What those numbers taught me about the craft:

1. The stop IS the strategy. A breakout entry is a cheap option on a
   trend. The stop caps the premium. Mine is ATR-scaled and sits below
   structure, not at a round number, which is why the losses pile up in
   one narrow bucket instead of bleeding everywhere.

2. No profit targets. Every cap on the right tail attacks the only part
   of the distribution that pays. Winners get a slow moving-average
   trail, confirmed on the close so one bad intraday print doesn't shake
   the position out.

3. Win rate is the wrong thing to optimize. A 43.5% hit rate with this
   shape beats a 60% hit rate with a clipped tail. Chasing win rate
   quietly caps your winners.

4. Regime does the heavy lifting. The same entries during weak breadth
   just bleed. The system only trades breakouts when breadth is broad and
   rising, and it stands down to cash entirely on roughly a third of all
   days. Doing nothing is a position.

Honesty footnote: these are hypothetical backtest numbers, not live
results. I paper-trade the system in public and publish every signal and
every miss daily, because I think the industry's cherry-picked screenshots
are a plague. Nothing here is advice; it's just what a breakout
distribution actually looks like when it's logged honestly.

Happy to go deeper on the stop math or the regime gate in the comments.

Beginner traders wait too long to sell.

They want proof that the move is over, so they hold until the stock starts breaking down.

By then, the easy money is usually gone.

The better approach is to sell into strength while the stock is still advancing and other traders still want it.

That is often where you get the best fills and avoid giving back a large part of the move.

3 Reasons Selling Strength Works

1. Demand is still there If a stock is still climbing and attracting attention, buyers are actively supporting the price. That gives you a better exit than waiting for momentum to fade.
2. Crowds are usually late When a stock still looks strong to everyone else, many traders are still bullish. That is often the moment when you can exit into eager buyers instead of chasing weakness lower.
3. You protect gains before the trend cracks A strong stock can reverse fast. Selling while it still looks healthy helps you lock in profits before the chart starts sending warning signs.

A simple way to sell into strength:

Use the ATR percent extension from the 50 MA to know when to trim into strength. When the stock is more than 7 times the ATR multiple above the 50 MA, that is generally a good time to start trimming your position

Then trail the remaining size until price closes below the 10 MA or the 20 MA.

https://preview.redd.it/99j1861rsfbh1.jpg?width=1791&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6dad8f515173f6d5ab0faf3dececcc83c3d4311a

Can someone help me build a finzwiz screener for his strategy (or on any other free screener). Also I have a bunch of questions regarding the strategy, so if someone is willing to help thatd be a huge favor. I also need to know what all to read and analyze pre market in order to review trades, and what macroeconomic news is relevant for the strategy?

if i mark out my demand zones in the 4h chart, don't i have to wait supper long for it to hit and when i dose i have to wait for a confirmation candle and i could miss that is there a way to fix this

I’m looking to lightly swing trade.

Specifically put 10K in Alphabet or QQQ in a light dip, wait till it is up 10% (could be days, weeks, months) then sell, then repeat a few times a year to make 5K profit.

Is this realistic?

If there is a crash I would just hold my position long term as this is spare money I don’t need. If it works out, eventually I would only swing trade with the profits I have made and put the original capital in my savings.

I don’t know any technical things but since my swing trading plan is so chill/flexible I figure it’s almost impossible to lose money. The stocks I’d be swing trading - I already hold them as long term investments that I won’t sell for decades anyway, so in a market downturn I will just hold my swing trade long term instead.

I genuinely can’t see how I could lose money which can’t make sense so..

my question is:

1. What is the hole in my plan? Am I missing something obvious?
2. Any course recommendations or app recommendations or and technical skills I should look into/self study?

I’m a newbie so please no unhelpful comments I’m trying to learn and see any holes in my plan. Thanks!

If they change to semi annual reports , we day traders will not be able to survive, either will swing traders and even weekly traders. It will let big wall street money take over the entire market. We lose money to their corporate corruption and misleading earnings reports already happening. Go to SEC.gov and vote against the change.

I have $5-6k to swing trade and want to try to make atleast 1000 within 1-3 weeks. For context I usually swing trade stocks between 1-3 months and have made a decent amount. I want to see if it is possible to make 1000 or more within a shorter period and also for the love of the game. I can afford to be a little bit risky since I have other stocks I’m in.

I’ve been looking at technology and chip stocks like AMPX, EWY, NBIS, CoreWeave, Hubspot, etc. Does anyone have any stock suggestions I should consider/ look at?

I’ve been watching SOUN all year they’ve gone from ATH at 21$ in October to being all the way down to 6.50 currently. I think they are in a strong buying zone rn and have some serious upside potential. Just wanted to throw this out here to see peoples thoughts on it. (This is not financial advice and nobody should use this post to justify buying SOUN)

Genuine question, not trying to be a jerk about it.

I keep seeing people take a setup just because someone they follow posted a chart with a nice-looking pattern on it. And it works out sometimes, sure. But nobody ever seems to ask the obvious thing first: has this pattern actually worked before? Like how often, over how many occurrences, and did it still make money after the losers?

That part is almost never in the post. It's just a clean chart, an arrow, and a confident voice. And somehow that's enough for people to put real money on it.

Maybe I'm overthinking it. But for me a pattern with no numbers behind it is basically a nice drawing. I want the win rate, the sample size, and whether the edge survives once you subtract slippage and fees. If a setup can't clear that, I don't really care how clean the chart looks.

I'm not saying influencers are scamming anyone. Most probably believe their own stuff. I'm saying the format rewards a confident story way more than an honest track record, and those two are not the same thing.

So genuinely, am I missing something? Do you actually check whether the patterns you see have an edge before you trade them, or is it more of a "looks good, take it" thing? Curious how people here decide what to trust.

I group the whole US market into narrative baskets. Over the last week the split got clean.

Here is the semiconductors basket.

Look at the 1-week column, every single name red, from NVDA and AMD to the equipment makers like ASML and LRCX.

https://preview.redd.it/uahvg5n4i8bh1.png?width=2720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ae1d10a2a09cc8eb793bc5ea88ed29de9af0c81

Now the defense basket, same screen, same week. The 1-week column is green top to bottom, the primes leading, Boeing, RTX, GD, Lockheed and Northrop all bid.

https://preview.redd.it/a5vrfca6i8bh1.png?width=2720&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa1abc267c91c38c7f08cf951d1c913bd4a991f6

Money is walking out of the high-beta AI-hardware story and into defense. You would barely catch it at the index level, because tech holds the leaders and the laggards at once and they offset.

Grouping by story is the only place the rotation shows up this cleanly.

The AI-hardware names are stretched to the downside, so I build a watchlist for when the selling slows, and I stay out while it is still in free fall.

Would you call it a scam or would you call it a luck or what it comes to your mind when you hear this statement.

For example, let's say my target ticker is INTC.

Before I buy INTC, I also require:

- SPY to be in an uptrend (overall market)

- SMH to be in an uptrend (semiconductor sector)

So my entry depends on three tickers, not just one.

For those of you with mechanical or systematic swing trading strategies:

How many different tickers influence your entry decisions?

Do you only look at the target ticker, or do you also require confirmation from the market, sector, industry, VIX, breadth indicators, or other assets?

Which tickers have you found add the most value?