r/Commodities

I’ve been trying to understand how decision-making actually works in physical commodities, and one thing I keep noticing is how much information seems to sit across different places and people.

External events, market signals, logistics, sourcing, contracts, customer commitments, internal context, etc.

From the outside, it looks like a lot of the hard work isn’t getting information, but figuring out what actually matters to your specific book or operation.

Am I misunderstanding that?

Where does information actually get fragmented in practice? And what parts of the workflow are still annoyingly manual?

Mainly here to learn how people actually work.

I've been following GB power markets closely and building my own models on imbalance prices. A few people in the industry have told me the intraday market is now largely dominated by algorithmic and HFT firms like Optiver, with utilities and smaller desks losing ground on short-term trading.

For those trading power now:

1. How much of intraday volume would you say is algo-driven today, in GB and on the continent?
2. Where do human traders still have an edge, for example in longer-dated trading, origination or asset optimisation?
3. Has the rise of battery storage changed who wins in intraday and balancing?
4. Do you see the same shift coming to physical oil, gas and LNG, or does the physical side protect human seats?

Part of why I'm asking is that I'm finishing university, and this is pushing me away from power and towards physical oil and gas. I did a year placement in a central bank's markets area, where I built an energy market dashboard used during the Hormuz closure and sat in on calls with energy dealers.

I think the mix of market exposure and modelling is useful, but most of my projects so far are in power, so I'd like to add some that show I understand the physical side, such as freight, cargo economics or arbitrage between regions.

If you've got recommendations for projects or data sources that would be useful for someone aiming at physical trading, I'd appreciate them.

On the news that the Pentagon reportedly instructed the US Military to conclude preparations for potentially resuming "major combat operations" in Iran, oil is bouncing strongly this morning, and is looking to break out. I know there are a lot of macro factors involved here, but realistically, if that was a tech stock, the whole of X would be clamouring on how amazing a breakout set up that is, so the objective bet has to be that this goes higher. 

https://preview.redd.it/l1sio0rbq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=c186ebcb1b7f57f6d239f6fc689f90867d8e36df

Especially when you look at this data:

https://preview.redd.it/c6glbt7cq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=a78c44c638f200e1f916b75b9dce15bc504edbaa

We have a disconnect there, and the more likely resolution is that oil needs to move higher in order to play catch up. 

If we look at diesel, it is as similar, and just as ugly picture:

https://preview.redd.it/ml7065mdq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=6478929ff929ea3c030af8fd949779629ca3a13e

A breakout off previous resistance, flipped to support. Again, if that was a tech stock, that would be a textbook breakout retest. 

Although crude oil is flowing through the strait (at a still heavily reduced pace), the diesel shortage continues to worsen. 

https://preview.redd.it/5ul9gvkeq8uh1.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4522d8e6de045b3ab246033152b0b1fcec6344e

With that the case, we have this constant bid on the USD, which has broken out nd continues to move higher through the 101.23 resistance. 

https://preview.redd.it/zo6rk6ufq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=20ecde615493d6b4fb2c78f583e732354f2fe9d8

All of this is a negative for gold, which positioning reflects:

https://preview.redd.it/epsb7ioiq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=db80c4131f1394026380c953601dfbab31619ba1

The main support zone is here in green. 

https://preview.redd.it/h4mpbo9kq8uh1.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=07e0c6e1c68ffc1c8e1fc6fbda4dd4d10d0305aa

Hi,

Having a casual event coming up with top management. Wondering what to talk about with them as I don’t personally know them at all, and know little about their work.
Don’t want dry and « pre cooked » conversations though.

Any ideas welcome!

Any info on them… Heard they trade FTRs/virts, maybe nat gas too, but I don’t know much

Does anyone know about their US operations? I heard it's gone downhill.