r/amzn

I currently have about $100k invested on Robinhood and I’m considering using another $100k on margin to slowly DCA into mega cap stocks like GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, AVGO, plus maybe smaller PLTR/RDDT positions. I understand margin interest is around 6% and that when I sell shares the borrowed amount gets automatically repaid. My question is whether using 2x leverage on strong mega cap companies is actually reasonable long term if I DCA weekly and avoid panic selling, or if this is the kind of strategy that eventually blows up during a correction. Curious how experienced margin investors think about risk management and allocation.

AMZN continues to underperform the NASDAQ on upswings and dump harder than the NASDAQ on downswings. Feelsbadman

Naming my first $PLUG $10 Andy come

https://preview.redd.it/8jgnn6a07k1h1.jpg?width=1241&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c7e650905566fb080e0b6b661addfab45369b036

join us r/hydrogen2030 built for 2030 $50 $PLUG

I think Anthropic is materially undervalued even at its current ~$1T valuation (FT reporting, May 8). On my bottom-up analysis, Anthropic gets to $600B ARR by 2030 and $1T ARR by 2034. At those numbers, the company is worth multiples of where it's marked today. Every current valuation discussion is anchored too low.

What that means for AMZN holders:

The equity stake. Amazon's $8B investment in Anthropic is now worth over $70B on the balance sheet (Fortune, April 30, Amazon-confirmed). 8.75x markup, triggered by Anthropic's Series G at a $380B post-money valuation in February. The FT reported last week Anthropic is now in talks at $900B to $1T. If that round closes, Amazon's stake goes to roughly $165-185B. Another massive non-operating gain hitting AMZN earnings, possibly this year. And on my numbers, even $1T is still too low.

The AWS revenue. Anthropic committed to $100B+ in AWS spend over 10 years. Roughly $10B/year at full deployment. AWS did $108B total in 2024, so this is one customer signing up for ~10% of AWS's current annual revenue, locked in. Anthropic's ARR went from $9B at end of 2025 to $45B last week. Five-fold in five months. The AWS contract is sized for a trajectory that lands well into the hundreds of billions of ARR by 2030.

And it's all running on Trainium. Amazon's custom silicon. Every dollar of inference Anthropic runs on Trainium instead of NVIDIA is margin retained inside Amazon. Trainium + Graviton combined is already over $10B annual run-rate, growing triple digits YoY. The Anthropic deal is the commercial proof that custom silicon works at frontier scale.

Most AMZN sell-side models I've seen barely account for any of this as a discrete value driver, and they're definitely not modelling the equity stake at anywhere near my fair value for Anthropic.

If you want the full anthropic analysis for how I get to $600bn in revenue by 2030, I'll leave my long form analysis in the comments (no paywall).

GCT Semiconductor has become a sudden sensation in the chip world for good reason.

Salient speculation has led many of us to follow the bread crumbs, read the tea leaves and deduce that GCTS is on the cusp of receiving massive, exclusive and sticky orders from "one of the largest satellite communications companies" in the world.

The reference platform agreement announced last week was definitive. This was the satcom provider saying: You're chip designs and tech is so instrumental to our future plans and optimized to our spectrum that we are placing it at the center of our ecosystem and we want all OEMs we work with to integrate it.

In Q4 2025 conf call the company openly stated they saw "low million" unit volume ANNUALLY from this satcom providers demand. Is that 1 million, 2 million.... 4 million?

EPS modeling by B.Riley and HC Wainwright heading into 2027 suggest this is probably in the 2 to 3 million range, which at .18 -.20 EPS in 2027 would value the company very conservatively at $3-4.00 per share.

But there are other things to consider and the valuation could explode much higher in the coming weeks/months. Let's look at these:

1. Who is the satcom provider?

I'm on record as having speculates this is the combined Amazon / Globalstar. Further, I believe at least one of the use cases here is to provide an internal network ( terrestrial 5G and NTN ) using Globalstar's band 53 globally harmonized spectrum. If I'm right than this network would replace their use of a global amalgamation of MNOs across the globe, giving Amazon consistency in quality and security of comms for their logistics, warehousing and supply chain. In fact, this is probably the primary reason Amazon wanted to buy Globalstar to begin with. The key link to this speculation is in two pieces of evidence: Globalstar 's R200M module, which uses GCTS chips for seamless terrestrial and NTN comms...and an announcement by Paul Jacobs in 2023 that Globalstar was working with one of the "largest global retailers" in the world. Additionally, because the platform reference agreement has come very quickly and the demand is on the back of the recent Amazon Globalstar merger...the timing is almost perfectly aligned.

Why wouldn't it be Iridium, Eutelesat, ASTS, or SpaceX?

Iridium definitely has worked with GCTS in the past to develop an open standard for NTN. This was a request in the initial early days of D2D by Android handset makers. They agreed they didn't want proprietary Iridium chips in every Android device, so this forced Iridium, if it wanted to compete in D2D, to adopt and promote an open standard. The internal name for Iridium's effort is Project Stardust. It's possible that Iridium's satcom will provide incremental additional demand via Android handset makers and Google ( via Pixel ).

Gogo's new Galileo system, delivered via Airspan uses GCTS Semi's chips. The Galileo architecture used Eutelesat/Oneweb as the satcom backbone...and 5G terrestrial MNO providers for tower comms. Gogo's pivot here makes their new platform a transatlantic jewel and competitor to SpaceX/Starlink. Linking up with the European version of Starlink (;the combined Eutelesat/ Oneweb ) was key because Europe's business and political establishment grew disenchanted with Elon after his right wing political acknowledgement. While Gogo's system represents demand for business jet fleets, I don't see it being the source of millions of chips annually.

ASTS doesn't even have a functioning constellation. They have 6 of 90 or maybe even 180 planned satellites in orbit. I'm on record as having said the company will face bankruptcy before they ever become operational. Look for several high profile MNOs to break ranks as the engineering mess becomes more clear. 3 satellite designs in 10 years.

SpaceX could certainly be a demand source. Elon has stated numerous times that he might create his own phone to complete with Apple. With the upcoming IPO of SpaceX, the funding necessary for building out a SpaceX phone would be available. This is an interesting angle.

2. Could GCTS be bought out and if so what would be the price?

If I'm right and it's Amazon, than there could be a buyout of GCT Semi. Why? Amazon makes their own silicon. But they do this only for key, core, strategic use cases ( their AWS stack as an example ). If Amazon plans to use GCT Semi patents and architecture in all their ecommerce operations and potentially other use cases ( Leo Nano, Alexa, Prometheus etc ) than GCT Semiconductor 's position begins to look more and more like a strategic fit for Amazon. What would that be worth? This is hard to gauge. But it's reasonable to think Amazon could throw $800M to $3B at GCT Semi to secure their future comms architecture, bring chip production in house and avoid patent litigation. You can do the math on this: 7x to 30x.

Now...if SpaceX wants to create some noise and get back at Bezos for stealing Globalstar from Elon's attempts to take over band 53, then it could get very interesting.

3. What other use cases could drive GCT Semi demand? Could this be the next Qualcomm?

Just like the Nvidia explosion with GPU demand from AI growrh, comms chip makers are sitting at the cusp of a new paradigm in communications that I call Global Connectivity ( https://www.reddit.com/r/GSAT/comments/1j8ndjq/global\_connectivity\_the\_foundational\_disruptor\_of/ ) that will drive an explosion of new communications chip demand. We are transitioning to a world of giant global network operators and away from regional providers. The traditional 5G chip modem was focused on terrestrial towers, but this new global architecture requires a multi band/multi orbit /multi antenna modem design that can switch seamlessly. This is the genius of GCT's patents. The new standard is already being baked into the 6G standards development. GCTs focus is less on handsets though. They avoid the direct competition with Mediatek and Qualcomm. But that's ok, because IOT ( think drones, humanoid robots, driverless cars... ) represents the real growth engine for 6G global connectivity.

GCTS, even without any buyout sits in a very smart spot. Qualcomm and Mediatek might even see them as too much to ignore and offer their own buyout.

GCTS has other customers I didn't mention who use their 4G designs and have likely explored using their 5G and IOT chips too.

Ok. So what should we watch for next week?

Next week's earnings are unlikely to be a good story. GCTS is surviving on selling warrants to clients and agreeing to predatory, dilutive offerings ( check the Indigo and Obsidian financing deals. Is it just mean or do these financing firms' names sound a bit ominous?).

A repair on their income statement comes in 2nd half of 2026 with break even in 2027. a key thing to watch/look for: definitive 2027 EPS guidance.

Another key thing to watch: other customer deals that drive demand. this would indicate that everyone sees a long-term future for GCT technology and the scary current financial picture is only temporary.

Also watch for any slips or hints that a strategic review or negotiation is taking place. This could blow the stack off the stock and vault it 10x within minutes of any credible information.

Lastly, I would expect some kind of short term financing arrangement to be mentioned where this satcom company helps to stabilize GCT'S balance sheet.

None of what I say is financial advice. I would encourage everyone to do their own research.