u/Low-Win-6691

to give your money away to the world's biggest con man

Elon shut down incredibly inexpensive life saving programs for the world's poorest people. Hundreds die every day as a result. $0 savings for the federal government.

https://www.impactcounter.com/dashboard?view=table&sort=title&order=asc

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/zero-savings-and-300000-lost-jobs-later-doge-is-officially-dead/

Tesla is 23 years old. SpaceX is 24.

The coast-to-coast self-driving demo promised for 2017 has never happened. The Roadster promised for 2020 hasn't shipped — 1,000 people paid $250k up front. Optimus was promised at 5,000 units in 2025; zero have been publicly verified. Mars was "2018," then "2024," and in February it slipped another 5–7 years.

Meanwhile: Tesla profit down 46% last year, deliveries down two years running, negative free cash flow last quarter, and $11.8B of the last decade's profit came from regulatory credits that Congress just eliminated. Market cap: $1.48 trillion. About 380x earnings.

SpaceX IPO'd in June at $1.77T. The filing disclosed a $4.94B loss.

In March, a federal jury found Musk liable for misleading investors.

Biggest fucking scam empire in human history.

--Twitter acquisition (FRAUD)

So this got finalized back in May and it made the news cycle for maybe a day. Quick recap: when he was buying up Twitter stock in 2022 he crossed the 5% line, which legally gives you 10 days to tell the public. He just... didn't. Stayed quiet 11 days past the deadline and kept buying the whole time, $500M+ worth, from people who had no idea the richest guy on earth was on the other end of their trades. The SEC's own complaint said he underpaid by at least $150 million because the price hadnt moved yet.

The fine? $1.5 million. No admission of wrongdoing, obviously. 1.5 against 150. thats 1%. sales tax is higher than that.

And once you see this one you start seeing the whole pattern, because this is like the fourth or fifth time. I went way too deep into old dockets and filings this week so now you get to read about it, sorry in advance for the length.

---The funding secured tweet (FRAUD)

Everyone remembers the tweet, fewer people remember he got charged with actual securities fraud over it. Paid $20m, Tesla paid another 20 (love that shareholders covered half), lost the chairman seat, agreed in writing to have a lawyer review his market moving tweets. Then went on 60 minutes and said "I do not respect the SEC" and admitted nobody was reviewing anything, and was back in court facing contempt within a few months. Oh and the SEC complaint has the detail that he picked $420 as a weed joke for his girlfriend. A federal judge in the shareholder suit later ruled the tweets were false and reckless — the jury didnt make him pay damages, but the "false" part is in an actual court ruling, that bit is not up for debate.

--SolarCity (FRAUD)

Tesla spends $2.6 billion on a company that was run by his cousins, that he was chairman of, and that he was the largest shareholder of, ON BOTH SIDES of the deal. At the time it was sitting on $3B+ of debt and about to run out of cash, and SpaceX (!) had been quietly buying SolarCity bonds to keep it breathing, like a quarter billion worth. Every other Tesla director settled the shareholder suit for $60m. Musk took it to trial alone and technically won on the price, but the judge wrote the process was "far from perfect" and that Musk was "more involved in the process than a conflicted fiduciary should be." when the judge who rules FOR you describes you like that...

--The pay package (DUMB)

A Delaware judge threw the entire $56B package out in 2024, called it an "unfathomable sum" from a "deeply flawed" process. The detail from that case that lives rent free in my head: Tesla's general counsel during the negotiation was his former divorce lawyer. The board's response was to vote him a NEW package worth up to a trillion dollars in nov 2025, while the appeal was still pending. (Delaware's supreme court did later reverse and hand him the old package back, worth ~$139B by then. so both packages, zero consequences.)

--Shady as fuck accounting practices (FRAUD)

Elon's companies just buy from each other now. Tesla's own filings show $573m of revenue from sales to SpaceX and xAI. SpaceX's IPO filing shows roughly $890 million spent on Tesla products, including $131m of CYBERTRUCKS. who else is buying cybertrucks. Then xAI merged into SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion combined valuation with him effectively on both sides of the table, right before the IPO where the public gets to buy in at that number. Its the SolarCity playbook with more zeros.

--More lols

- Tesla's first "profitable" year (2020) was $721m of net income on $1.58 BILLION of regulatory credit sales. the cars lost money.

- put $1.5b of company cash into bitcoin in 2021 and booked gains on it while tweeting bitcoin memes constantly.

- Florida jury hit Tesla for $243 million last august over a fatal Autopilot crash, $200m of it punitive. they lost the motion to toss it in february. the state AG is now trying to get the verdict erased for them.

- there is a DOJ criminal investigation into the self driving claims, disclosed in Tesla's own 10-K. not a conspiracy theory, its in their filing.

- NLRB ruled his "unionize and lose your stock options" tweet was an illegal threat. EEOC sued over the Fremont factory. DOJ sued SpaceX for refusing to hire refugees. SpaceX's response to the NLRB case was to sue to have the NLRB declared unconstitutional, which honestly is the most on brand thing ive ever heard.

- X spent years getting sued by ex employees, landlords and vendors because he just stopped paying bills after the takeover.

Fundamentals point to limited upside from here and clear downside risks. The company reported around $20 billion in revenue with a $5 billion loss in the latest period. At IPO levels, it carried a price-to-sales multiple over 90x. Independent analysis from Morningstar placed fair value near $780 billion, calling the IPO price significantly overvalued. 

Cash generation remains distant. Projections show no free cash flow until 2035, alongside an estimated need for $84 billion per year in external capital through 2034. This sets up substantial future dilution or financing pressure. 

Operational challenges add to it: Starlink subscriber economics, Starship timelines, government contract stability, and integration with xAI all require near-perfect execution. xAI itself has been highlighted as carrying risks of value destruction with an unclear competitive position. 

Lock-up expirations will bring selling from early holders, and the small initial float amplified early moves that are now reversing. History with premium-priced IPOs at this scale shows poor long-term returns when expectations are this elevated.

Post photo is from the Epstein files.

Congrats to the 4,400+ SpaceX employees who are now millionaires on paper. And the VCs who 1000x’d their money. But bros… this valuation is INSANE. $1.8T+ IPO for a company still losing billions, betting everything on Starship not exploding and Starlink printing cash forever?

Elon owns ~42%, but thousands of employees and early investors have been waiting YEARS for liquidity. Tenders were already at $800B. Now with staggered lockups unlocking starting late July (20%+ after earnings, more waves through the year), expect a slow-motion sell-off as normies cash out for houses, taxes, diversification. One big earnings miss or Starship delay and it’s over.

Retail FOMO’d in at $150-200. Classic IPO pump and dump incoming.

Tesla and SpaceX.

Both of these companies have been around for a very long time now. Tesla was founded over 20 years ago, and SpaceX has been around since 2002. They are mature corporations, not nimble little startups.

Yet right now, Elon is trying to sell the exact same "exponential growth" narrative for both companies to drag them out of the gutter. Tesla is facing cratering margins, global EV oversupply, and a desperate pivot to robotaxis that always seem to be "just next year." SpaceX is burning billions on Starship, trying to justify a massive private valuation based on a satellite internet market that might already be reaching saturation.

He is recycling the same 2018 playbook, pretending that infinite, vertical growth is just around the corner if we all just believe hard enough. Who actually buys into this anymore? At what point do people look at the stagnation, look at the actual delivery numbers, and realize they are being sold a story to pump valuations?

If you look past the hype of the June 12, 2026 initial public offering (IPO), the hard data in the S-1 prospectus indicates that SpaceX didn't go public to fund future growth. They went public because the core business has structurally peaked, and early venture capitalists needed an exit liquidity trap before the public realized the numbers are deteriorating.

When you analyze the actual quarterly filings and network constraints, you can see that the company is currently on the downward slope of its peak lifecycle:

1. The Core Falcon 9 Launch Monopoly Has Extracted 100% of the Available Value

The absolute ceiling of the launch business has been reached:

• The Market Share Cap: In 2025, SpaceX captured 82% of the U.S. commercial launch market and accounted for over 80% of total global mass-to-orbit. Mathematically, they cannot expand their market share much further because they already own it.
• The Launch Revenue Stall: Because they have achieved total dominance, growth has stalled out. Commercial launch revenue (flying payloads for NASA, the military, and other companies) grew by a meager 8% year-over-year.
• The Cannibalization Reality: SpaceX completed 165 total launches in 2025. However, 74% of those flights (122 launches) were used to launch their own Starlink satellites. The launch business is no longer a growth engine; it has been reduced to an internal cost center used to sustain the satellite network.

2. Starlink’s Growth Curve Has Flatlined

The primary narrative driving the massive $1.77 trillion valuation is that Starlink is a hyper-growth consumer business. However, the Q1 2026 data reveals that the growth story is largely over:

• The Q1 Growth Halt: Official S-1 filings show that Starlink reached 10.3 million active subscribers by March 31, 2026. Earlier in the year, the company announced it had hit 10 million subscribers. That means over a four-month span, Starlink added fewer than 100,000 users per month. For context, they were previously adding a million new users every two months.
• The Capacity Wall: The reason for this sudden deceleration is simple: the network is physically congested. In the wealthy, high-ARPU regions where people can easily afford the service (like rural North America), cell capacity is full, causing speeds to drop.

3. The Unprecedented Q1 2026 Burn Rate

Because the core businesses are plateauing, the financial metrics are deteriorating rapidly:

• The Loss Explosion: SpaceX reported a hefty GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion for the full year of 2025.
• The Q1 2026 Acceleration: The financial performance worsened significantly in the first quarter of 2026. The company burned through $10.1 billion in capital expenditures in Q1 2026 alone, resulting in an additional $4.3 billion net loss in just three months.

4. The Messy xAI "Pivot" to Hide the Peak

Why is the burn rate exploding? Because management knows the rocket and satellite businesses have peaked, forcing them to pivot the company into an AI server provider to keep investors engaged:

• The February Merger: SpaceX absorbed Elon Musk's xAI division. Rocket engineers are now tasked with building massive, capital-intensive AI data centers.
• Shifting the Narrative: According to investor presentations, the bull case now relies on xAI to drive future growth. SpaceX is no longer being valued on its aerospace achievements; it is being valued on its ability to compete in an expensive AI arms race against tech giants like Microsoft and Google.

The Bottom Line

SpaceX achieved historical milestones, captured the global space market, and effectively commercialized satellite internet. However, the data indicates that this performance represents the peak.

With Starlink subscriber additions slowing down, launch revenues leveling out, and a massive quarterly burn rate of $4.3 billion to fund an AI pivot, the fundamentals do not support a multi-trillion-dollar valuation. The post-IPO sell-off we are seeing is the market waking up to this reality.

Everyone buying the hype on the new SpaceX IPO (SPCX) needs a reality check. The financial statements just leaked from the S-1 filings and recent quarterly reports, and it is a pure cash furnace.

If you aggregate the whole "Musk Empire," it is not a tech monopoly. It is a highly volatile valuation bubble where one struggling car company is trying to bankroll an entire network of AI money pits.

The Real Numbers (Q1 2026 Metrics)

• Tesla (TSLA) Market Cap: ~$1.42T
• SpaceX (SPCX) Market Cap: ~$2.05T (down 27% from the post-IPO peak)
• Combined Total Network Value: ~$3.5 Trillion
• Combined Quarterly Net Income: -$3.82 Billion (A massive collective loss)

Here is how bad the actual bleed looks when you map it out:

text

ELON EMPIRE NET INCOME (MOST RECENT QUARTER)
==================================================
Tesla (TSLA):     [+$477M]  ■■■
SpaceX (SPCX):    [-$4.30B] ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
--------------------------------------------------
TOTAL NET BLEND:  [-$3.82B] 
==================================================

Use code with caution.

The Breakdown

1. SpaceX (SPCX) is a $2 Trillion Black Hole
The hype machine pumped SPCX past a $2.5T valuation at launch, but Morningstar dropped a massive warning beforehand stating the actual fair value is closer to $780B.
SpaceX lost $4.9 Billion in 2025, and just lost another $4.30 Billion in a single quarter. Why? Because Musk forced SpaceX to absorb his private AI startup (xAI) and burned $7.72 Billion on AI capital expenditures in 90 days. Public retail buyers are literally acting as exit liquidity to pay for server racks that have zero proven monetization.

2. Tesla (TSLA) is Running Out of Gas
Bulls claim Tesla is the safety net, but the Q1 earnings release shows deep trouble. They built 408k cars but only sold 358k. That is 50,000 unsold cars sitting in parking lots, blowing global vehicle inventory up to a 27-day supply. To fix it, Musk just jacked up 2026 CapEx guidance to $25 Billion, meaning Tesla's free cash flow is projected to plunge straight into a negative $8.5 Billion ditch this year.

The Scam Loop

The playbook never changes. When Tesla car sales drop, the narrative abruptly shifts to RoboTaxis. When RoboTaxis don't materialize, it shifts to Optimus bots. When that stalls, the hype pivots to "orbital AI data centers."

Insiders and private venture funds were running out of cash to fund Twitter's debt and xAI’s burn, so they packaged it all into the SPCX IPO to dump the bags on retail. When a corporate network needs $30B+ in annual capital just to stay alive while losing billions a quarter, it is not an investment—it’s a speculative trap.

Are you shorting this peak, or holding the bag?

I don't know how to post this without sounding like a shill but fuck local grocery prices. SF is the second highest priced city in the world for groceries.