r/SpaceInvestorsDaily

I've held ASTS since last summer, but recently I've started reassessing my position.

The recent launch setback is not my primary concern. What concerns me more is a consistent pattern (so far) of over-promising and under-delivering by management. This raise questions about the credibility of their execution timeline.

The company is targeting 40-45 satellites by the end of this year based yet based on their current pace and performance, there is no way how this goal is really achievable.

Yes, things and projects get delayed all the time, but the gap between stated targets and demonstrated execution capacity kept getting significant.

Can they get there eventually? maybe, but I am feeling less confident as time goes by. The timeline is likely to extend well beyond current projections - potentially by a wide margin. At this point, management cannot reset the expectations to their aggressive roadmap.

The key risk is whether ASTS can execute on time, and continued delays WILL market confident, partnerships, and capital requirements.

Thoughts?

I recommended my flat earth believer friend to buy ASTS stock when it was down post earnings. I met him today and he said he thinks he finally believes in space.
I think I cracked the code on how to convince flat earthers

I know the bear case

Here’s a quick grok summary

—-

Bear Case for SpaceX IPO (at ~$1.5–2T valuation):
Insanely expensive: 75–100x+ revenue multiple on a company still burning cash and not clearly profitable. Prices in perfect execution for decades.

Starship or bust: Everything (cheaper launches, massive Starlink growth, new businesses) depends on Starship working flawlessly at scale. Any delays = trouble.

Musk risk: Extreme volatility from his divided attention, tweets, and governance (super-voting shares give him total control).

Mega-IPO history: Hyped listings often disappoint post-debut amid lockups, reality checks, and multiple compression.

Bottom line: Remarkable company, but priced for perfection with little margin for error. High risk of sharp post-IPO drop if growth slows or timelines slip.

——

NOW THIS QUESTION IS FOR IPO BUYERS

I’m well aware of everyone who thinks this thing is overvalued.

So I’m looking for those who plan to buy on IPO day and what their bull case is despite the bears.

And if you are planning to lump sum or DCA

Please refrain from commenting really with bear cases.

They are so prolific across reddit it’s not needed.

As the financials have a few folks wrinkling their noses at SpaceX this kinda popped into my head:

What if this IPO really misfires?
What does this mean for competitors and adjacent stocks? The ones us mere mortals get to play?

I could see a bad flop just kinda mushing out the whole sector for a bit, but then it recovering steadily.

I could also see a meh kind of IPO as SpaceX is deemed “fine but overrated” by more investors.
But then maybe cash flows to their competitor / adjacent companies like ASTS/RKLB because investors still want in on the space scene.

Maybe some halo / FOMO effect spreads to the small fish? (RDW, SPCE, GILT, SATL,YSS).

In these kind of blah cases it’s unlikely that adjacent companies skyrocket, right? But maybe they actually build long term strength in the sector overall?

What say ye?

Hello everyone,

Since Tema Space Innovators ETF (ticker: NASA) is not available in Europe. So what is the best equivalent for it?

And since spacex ipo is coming up, so will it be a good move to buy any space etf?

Thanks.

Wondering why since the beginning of March MDA has experienced such huge trading volumes per week. My guess its because of the SpaceX IPO? Thanks!

I sold it in 90.25. Share price was 67.38. Got huge profit no complaints but I think today it will average around 90-95 or go down

My view is that direct to cell communication services will become the largest source of revenue for the space sector (by far) over the next decade. There are currently 3 serious contenders for this market and I think the biggest question in space investing right now is how the pie will be divided amongst them.

.	ASTS	Starlink	Amazon LEO
Private or public company	Public	Private/part of SpaceX/IPO in 2026	Public/subsidiary of Amazon
Market cap	36 Billion	1200-1600 Billion, around 80% of SpaceX expected 2000 Billion valuation	Some fraction of Amazon's valuation at 2700 Billion
Constellation deployment fully funded?	Yes	Yes	Yes
No of sats required for global coverage & full service	90+	10,000+	3000+
No. of launches required to deliver global coverage & full service	16+ (medium lift)	200+ (super heavy)	100+ (medium lift)
Approximate cost to deploy global coverage	2 Billion USD	15 Billion USD	10 Billion USD
Spectrum cost to deliver global coverage	0.615 Billion USD	19.6 Billion USD	11.6 Billion USD
Rocket options/launch partners	Falcon 9, New Glenn, ISRO, Ariane 6, Vulcan Centaur	Starship	New Glenn, Ariane 6, Vulcan Centaur
Expected connection speed at full service	100-200mbps	150mbps	5mbps?
When are sats launching?	Now	Targeting mid 2027	Targeting 2028
Full service expected	2027-2028	2029-2030	2029
MNO partnerships	60, covering 3 billion existing customers	None	None
Spectrum secured	MNO partner spectrum + own spectrum	Own spectrum	Own spectrum
No. of patents relating to D2C service	&gt;2000	<500	?
Indoor service	Yes	No?	No?
Requiring phone modifications	No	Unclear	Unclear
Satellite lifetime	7-10 years	5 years	5 years

Globally, the cell service (mobile telecom) market generates approximately $1.1 trillion to $1.55 trillion in annual revenue, with mobile data alone accounting for over $800 billion of that total. Compound annual growth is currently around 5%.

The introduction of space based direct to cell services will accelerate this growth, offering connectivity to previously unserved areas of the planet including many fast growing, developing regions and remote areas where traditional cell towers will be leapfrogged. In the near to mid term, space based services will compliment ground based comms but eventually it will largely replace them.

Personally, I find it obvious from the available facts that ASTS is best positioned to take the largest share of the direct to cell market. I don't think the market has come close to pricing this in given the current valuation at around 1/50th that of Starlink.

They may not launch their own rockets but I don't think they need to, just like Apple doesn't need to own the trucks it ships phones on. The ASTS constellation requires far fewer launches than SpaceX and Amazon constellations and their sats are designed to fit multiple, non-competing carriers. Launch is destined to become increasingly competitive as tens of companies and countries are developing rockets similar to SpaceX's F9. There will still be money to be made in launch but the biggest market going forward will be communications services.

I'm targeting a $2000 share price by 2030 and $10000 by 2035.

Please comment if you have any corrections or additions!

I have a few thousand shares of RKLB but nothing excites me as much as RKLB did when I got in. So just want to hear opinions!

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It also has huge insider purchase volume