u/proudmelon

I've held ASTS since last summer, but recently I've started reassessing my position.

The recent launch setback is not my primary concern. What concerns me more is a consistent pattern (so far) of over-promising and under-delivering by management. This raise questions about the credibility of their execution timeline.

The company is targeting 40-45 satellites by the end of this year based yet based on their current pace and performance, there is no way how this goal is really achievable.

Yes, things and projects get delayed all the time, but the gap between stated targets and demonstrated execution capacity kept getting significant.

Can they get there eventually? maybe, but I am feeling less confident as time goes by. The timeline is likely to extend well beyond current projections - potentially by a wide margin. At this point, management cannot reset the expectations to their aggressive roadmap.

The key risk is whether ASTS can execute on time, and continued delays WILL market confident, partnerships, and capital requirements.

Thoughts?

I've got a friend who believes in eVTOL industry and heavy into ARCH, JOBY, and HOVR stocks. I got intrigued and have been doing some research.

My biggest concern is long-term demand and the business models of the industry.

The industry feel quite selective and niche. I can see some clear demand in specific use cases, such as emergency services, medical transport, or maybe premium or time-critical scenarios.

I have difficulty envisioning eVTOL being widely or mass adopted by the general public. Sure, there are demands. For instance, rich people or business executives can see some value.

He mentioned the narrative around "flying Ubers for everyone", but that feels very unrealistic, especially when considering regulations, safety requirements, and public acceptance.

I am interested in how others view the demand side of the eVTOL market and whether you see a realistic path beyond niche applications.

Thoughts?