u/SeperentOfRa

I know the bear case

Here’s a quick grok summary

—-

**Bear Case for SpaceX IPO (at \~$1.5–2T valuation):**
**Insanely expensive**: 75–100x+ revenue multiple on a company still burning cash and not clearly profitable. Prices in perfect execution for decades.

**Starship or bust**: Everything (cheaper launches, massive Starlink growth, new businesses) depends on Starship working flawlessly at scale. Any delays = trouble.

**Musk risk**: Extreme volatility from his divided attention, tweets, and governance (super-voting shares give him total control).

**Mega-IPO history**: Hyped listings often disappoint post-debut amid lockups, reality checks, and multiple compression.

**Bottom line**: Remarkable company, but priced for perfection with little margin for error. High risk of sharp post-IPO drop if growth slows or timelines slip.

——

NOW THIS QUESTION IS FOR IPO BUYERS

I’m well aware of everyone who thinks this thing is overvalued.

So I’m looking for those who plan to buy on IPO day and what their bull case is despite the bears.

And if you are planning to lump sum or DCA

Please refrain from commenting really with bear cases.

They are so prolific across reddit it’s not needed.

I know the bear case

Here’s a quick grok summary

—-

Bear Case for SpaceX IPO (at ~$1.5–2T valuation):
Insanely expensive: 75–100x+ revenue multiple on a company still burning cash and not clearly profitable. Prices in perfect execution for decades.

Starship or bust: Everything (cheaper launches, massive Starlink growth, new businesses) depends on Starship working flawlessly at scale. Any delays = trouble.

Musk risk: Extreme volatility from his divided attention, tweets, and governance (super-voting shares give him total control).

Mega-IPO history: Hyped listings often disappoint post-debut amid lockups, reality checks, and multiple compression.

Bottom line: Remarkable company, but priced for perfection with little margin for error. High risk of sharp post-IPO drop if growth slows or timelines slip.

——

NOW THIS QUESTION IS FOR IPO BUYERS

I’m well aware of everyone who thinks this thing is overvalued.

So I’m looking for those who plan to buy on IPO day and what their bull case is despite the bears.

And if you are planning to lump sum or DCA

Please refrain from commenting really with bear cases.

They are so prolific across reddit it’s not needed.

Anyone else concerned that the key man risk for Nvidia is kind of crazy….

Jensen stated on the Lex Fridman podcast that he has no intention of formulating a succession plan. His justification was that his leadership is decentralized, with 60 direct reports who “know everything,” implying the company can continue without him.

But, without him in the room as the center… wouldn’t it collapse.

That’s kind of crazy … Tim Cook retired at 65 and Jensen is 63