This is a 1U exit at $218.60 from the six that I have in the Primary portfolio, so taking the position down greater than 16.6%.
Just continuing to skim some profits off the top in this market
Final exit on the remaining 1/3 positions at $53.50. This completes the round trip on these calls with the first 2/3 sold at $67.50.
The market just looks a little tired at the top and now with the EPS catalyst of $NVDA out of the way, I'll reset. PT on the stock have been going up with some into the low $300s. But it's going to have to play out into an already huge uptrend, spent momentum and stacking negative market catalysts. I'll take the gain.
Here's our open:
How much can $NVDA save the markets and hold our value? We'll see that play out this AM as value traders fight with beta traders. Those numbers from the KiNg-Vidia were stellar. They should be green at the end of today on those results but traders may be moving on because value is boring.
Random Shots
This is significant: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/quantum-stocks--us-taking-equity-stakes.html
I've been pounding the table on $IBM recently and took another position only recently. Now the government is awarding $2B in 'awards' to the quantum space, $IBM will get the largest chunk.
Let's flip over to a sort by winners and losers and see what have:
Losers
Misc
That's all for now
TJ
Markets have been struggling the last three days or so on the increasing weight of a crazy-go-nuts rally, until this week hit. It's fair to wonder just how much the $NVDA release helped buoy the markets - we're about to find out.
Let me revisit the chart I'm looking at, showing the rally that began on 3/31. I compare the two top indices along with the RSP (equal weight S&P) to get the DNA of our action.
Nasdaq vs S&P vs RSP: 3/30/26+
The Nasdaq (shaded mountain) continues to be the index I watch due to tech leadership. At its peak, we were up over 28% from 3/31. We've lost some ground but it's far from a DEFCON 1 situation.
No one should be surprised or stunned that tech leadership remains the crux of our rally. And the RSP performing at half the S&P, due to no market-weight applied to S&P500 names, shows that without tech, this rally is much more muted. I had floated that one of two things must happen from recent market highs if we want the rally to continue:
Let's zoom in and take a look at the 5-Day
We have flipped but the two big indices are negative for now. Where from here is the question with $NVDA now out of the bag?
$NVDA
This is arguably the most muted response to $NVDA's earnings yet. It would seem premiums are going to be sucked out of short-term Calls. I unloaded 2/3 of my 3/27 $190 Calls in that rise above $230 thankfully but still hold 1/3 of the position. I may unload this AM but I'll see how it feels after market opens
It's clear that while NVDA is the clear and undisputed winner at the top of the AI food chain, Mr. Market continues to yawn at their results as they are largely understood, unsurprising and baked in. My forward P/E prediction is in that 22.5 area for the next year, lower than most analysts I'd guess. Though, we should be seeing new PTs out today with emphasis on valuation
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q1-2027.html
Not much to be concerned about related to the numbers from $NVDA. A $5.4T market cap company growing revenues at 85%. Lean back and let that sink in.
There's very little not to like about the report last night. The issue is simply the size of the company and the fact that the speculation and beta traders continue to target other names for more 'action.' That leaves Nvidia as just a major long-term grower - and a great hold in a portfolio. The question is, now, do you need to hold it for continued alpha (outperformance) in a tech-based portfolio looking for growth.
I'd answer "absolutely" to the question, the question being more about "weight" of the position. The dividend increased to $0.25/shr. doesn't really move the needle enough in any sort of Paid-to-Wait way, but it's something. At this juncture, with where NVDA has come from, I'm seeing at as a position to have fairly representative in a portfolio, not necessarily overweight unless you're looking for value buoyancy.
There's nothing wrong with the name, valuation or growth. It's just a function now of interest and speculation in the market. In short, I think it may have finally reached the border of boring old tech as ludicrous as it sounds.
Storm Clouds
If you've been reading my missives for a bit, you know I've continued to say "I dunno" about the direction and energy of this bull market, at one point up 28%+ on the Nasdaq since 3/30's close. All the while, I haven't seen nearly the positive catalysts necessary for it all the while we're stacking and ignoring negative catalysts.
We quietly added more concerns over the last day or so in that, as I've been mentioning, the next rate move could actually be higher, not lower, due to inflation. Inflation is a huge issue right now, more so than is being talked about IMO. Tariff impact is bad enough but now we have the oil spike reaching a critical point as oil reserves are about reach a critical point, just as the summer driving season is upon us. This was a self-inflicted would orchestrated by DJT, regardless of what the long-term thesis was for the moves against Venezuela (that seems obvious now) and Iran. He's in an almost no-win situation now.
The NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) trade is on and I could argue that Iran holds the cards. DJT loves to use that reference but the looking at the table from above, we've lost the leverage. We move further on Iran and send prices higher due to the greater conflict. We do nothing and continued supply disruption through the Strait plays out via higher prices as reserves dwindle. When we support our leaders, whoever they are, we have to remain purely objective about the causality they create which plays out from their actions. DJT has to own this one.
The biggest issue is that inflation is being sent higher-in an unrelenting one-two punch by tariffs and energy prices. That could well lead to the inflation/stagflation scenario I've been talking about. Once again, where are the positive catalysts working in the markets? And now we don't have Nvidia, the king, to buoy the intrigue and hype needed in the tech space that has led us to this point.
At the same time, if we roll over on Iran, getting almost nothing that hasn't been achieved in the past (think past Presidents), the markets could still cheer this market higher for a period of time. We put on a negative catalyst and rally, then rally when it's removed. Madness, but it's the game we play. For me, I keep looking at where the puck is going to be eventually. Something needs to break soon in this area if we want to avoid recession. Those summer driving months loom large.
Where to from here?
My Spidey-sense is lower unless we get a meaningful and durable peace accord with Iran. Then we have to get lower energy prices, inflation to abate and hope that DJT doesn't then set his sights on Greenland and/or Cuba to instill even more FUD about our position on the geopolitical stage.
I have this continuing desire to move chips off the table given how the long-game is stacked. But, I continue to hope for the durable peace agreement in the Middle East that can further boost the market to make for more short-term upside to sell into.
We can't keep stacking negative catalysts and whistle through the graveyard.
Part 2 coming up ...
TJ
It was another blockbuster report, but just how can NVDA surprise or impress the street more than it has in the past.
EPS a solid beat. Revs over $2B more than expectations. An $80B buyback, and even a major dividend increase, to $0.25 from $0.01. Beyond that, free cash flow of $48.6B, almost $14B more than last Q. Gross margin, one of the things I'm watching most, came it at 75%. I have a soft bar of 73.5% in my mind and they cleared it again. Q2 guidance of $91B.
H100 rental pricing increased 20% YTD and A100 cloud pricing has risen 15%. Companies are paying it. There's some level of material elasticity here.
Stock is down a modest 1.16% AH:
All things considered, if I'm projected NVDA's forward P/E based on guidance and historical track record, I arrive at something around:
Where to from here?
So hard to say. We just don't know what the market psychology is of shareholders right now, or at least weak/trading hands. There's nothing here to sell, yet again. An $80B buyback will help, even if only a modest 1-2% in share count reduction.
Analysts are going to ratchet up numbers, expectations and begin refactoring profitability metrics.
Obviously, the market has been on quite a bender with NVDA anchoring the rally, providing some buoyancy and bull-side thesis. It's now out and there's no intrigue left. Where's the catalysts for a higher move outside of positioning for value? I think it's safe to say we slip unless we get some sort of huge bull-rush from analysts that pushes the stock. Even then, hard to see there being enough push into the float to support a sell-the-news tendency.
There's literally almost nothing NVDA can do with an earnings report now to impress - only to disappoint at some point in the future. But today is not that day.
I may unload the remaining 1/3 original position of 3/27 $190 Calls, wait and look to reposition if we get a material pullback near $200. Remains to be seen. As far as the long shares go, I'll wait a bit and see what hits me. Could trim a bit ... won't add to an already full weighted position.
...for $NVDA earnings. Market in rally mode. The AI trade seems to be in a good headspace, which I think bodes well for NVDA AH today.
Just a quick note that the StockAnalysis offer expires on 5/31. It's truly a risk free offer as you can use get one month free and you can cancel before you are charged. It's honestly a slam dunk.
https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1td2vsd/stockanalysiscom_new_offer/
Use my discount code or don't, it's really okay either way. I'll be continuing to showcase how I use this tool going forward, and most of the images you see in my analysis come from SA. Two things I highly recommend in order to increase your results:
You don't need the "Unlimited" plan unless you really want unlimited downloads and unlimited watchlist items, which you don't need when you're just starting.
I have no idea if they will have a similar offer again. I was late to the party on getting this one out.
J
Another red day as bond prices continue to take center stage. Yields up ...
The markets aren't liking DJT's current mode of operation. He's basically gotten himself wedged between a rock and a hard place. Follow through with an attack on Iran and shoot energy prices higher (they're already at a critical spot) or do nothing and keep oil prices elevated.
All the while, bond prices continue to drop, sending yields higher. It may not be long until we begin hearing more inflation drums beating.
Random Shots
Just a short entry today after that bond missive I wrote. Moving on to a few other things.
I'm not close to being a bond guru. But, I'm much closer than I was a decade ago. It took me a long time to learn, and longer to accept, the role of bonds in your portfolio.
The old adage in portfolio management is:
Equities are the gas, bonds are the brakes
The Basics
The hardest aspect of bonds and fixed income investing to get your arms around is that it seems you are hamstringing a % of your portfolio to lower yielding returns. That's at least how it feels on the front end. Sometimes it takes advancing age, along with a dose of reality with a pinch of wisdom, to understand that you're not 'hamstringing' as much as you are 'protecting.'
Ultimately, we are all chasing yield from our portfolios. Via yield, we grow wealth. That yield can come from stocks via capital appreciation, dividends and interest. Even the S&P500 returns are derived from how much it has risen along with the additional 'yield' it has generated from dividends for an overall result. And I'm not mentioning other forms of yield from alternative forms of investment.
Bonds, fixed income, protect our portfolios by providing a degree of safety because of the investments used to derive the yield, during most economic periods, offer higher yield for longer terms in the form of U.S. treasuries - the crux of the fixed income market. Generally speaking, the longer you are willing to lock up your money, the greater the fixed rate of return is. But, here are times when that "yield curve" breaks down such that investors are no longer incentivized to invest for the longer term because shorter-term treasures may offer similar, or even, higher rates of return - investors can choose a shorter duration but obtain the same, or greater, yield. You've likely heard the term "inverted yield curve."
When shorter-term instruments yield more than their longer-term counterparts, that's a telltale sign of potential/looming recession. If not recession, than economic imbalance.
This is why so many watch bonds as a gauge for the health of our economy. There's an inverse relationship with bonds and their yields. As bond prices come down, yields rise. As an example of this, recall that just recently there was a "Sell America!" drumbeat due to geopolitical tension caused, first, by DJT's tariffs and, most recently, the U.S. imperialistic actions (Iran, Venezuela, etc.).
Let's take a look at the 10-Year treasury:
What do rising yields tell us?
In short, if there are cracks in the U.S. economy, the desirability of U.S. based investments decreases as would be expected. Would you be more likely, or less likely, to invest in a company experiencing significant issues? For the economy, these issues could be short term in nature, or long term. If long term, they may result in recession or stagflation. If short, the impact may be material but short-lived as we navigate the crisis. As storm clouds move on, bond prices rise, yields begin to fall, we poke our heads back out and start investing a bit more.
During the recent "Sell America" campaign that was being touted by our allies, in addition to the war in Iran, U.S. investment was not as attractive as it was earlier - individuals and sovereign governments sell U.S.-based assets causing the prices f these treasuries to fall, resulting in yields rising. As inflation, oil prices, jobs, etc. move in the wrong direction, more cracks appear in the economy, prices fall further, and yields rise.
Greater yield in bonds, especially in the mid and long term instruments is a sign of weakness, concern and general FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) related to the U.S. economy. As that yield rises, Wall and Main Streets become more incentivized to take the yield and reduce risk from equity exposure.
An easy way to consider bonds
Think of it this way - At what yield would you be so enticed by the opportunity for 'safe' returns, no risk in equities, such that you would be willing to move all, or a large %, of your portfolio into these investments?
That is the question that all investors have to ask themselves. If you could get a 6% risk-free yield, is that enough? 8% .... how about 5%? If you have a $2M portfolio, 5%, is a risk-free $100,000/yr. return. Dare I also say this is why annuities are so popular - the ability to turn over a large chunk of your investable assets/cash for guaranteed annual (annuitized) returns. The investor hopes to take your money, pay you 5% but achieve 8% in returns just as an example.
Any sort of fixed income with extremely small attached risk presents an opportunity to adjust the risk of your portfolio by determining how much risk-free return you garner to match-off against the potential returns of equity investments. With fixed income carrying much smaller risk, an investor need not worry so much about the day-to-day fluctuations in equity markets. Less risk = better sleep.
My use of bonds and/or fixed income
I ignored bonds, CDs and all forms of fixed income primarily because I've always had good long-term returns in the markets. But experience does not ordain future results. You know the phrase: Pasts performance does not guarantee future results.
The real power of the stock market comes from two variables:
In truth, there are many other factors as well, and at the top of my list for #3 would be your ability/willingness/discipline of ongoing, continual and scheduled allocations to your investment accounts. These could take the form of an employer sponsored 401(k), Roth IRA or taxable investment account. I call these three the holy trinity. Apologies to my more religious brothers and sisters here.
When employed and contributing to the holy trinity, you have the ability to weather the storms of corrections, bear markets and poor market returns. As markets come down, your investments continue and cheaper shares are purchased which add fuel to your growing wealth fire as you age.
But after you retire, in most cases, your ability to have ongoing, continual and scheduled allocations to these accounts ceases. Therein lies the problem. Think of the consideration of being 100% invested in stocks in 2007 and retiring, prior to the financial crisis. Yes, I know individuals who timed it that poorly and others who were about to retire and, instead, had to work 5 more years to recover what was lost.
Safety brings peace of mind! You just need to determine how much safety you desire.
As I was about to retire, I did a deep-dive on my assets and holding toward determining how much 'peace of mind' I wanted to achieve. I ultimately set upon the number of five years, since increased to six. By having five years of fixed income and resulting safety. That number, I felt, was enough to provide that peace while giving me enough risk-free access to cash such that I could weather even the most significant bear markets if needed.
If you want to know more about my structure, I encourage you to read this piece I wrote just a month ago:
Summary
Bond yields are simply a proxy for how many flowers, rainbows and unicorns are present in the U.S. economy, at least to some degree. If bonds are being sold, yields rising, it's a sign that everything is not right in Wonderland Alice. But these periods of time rise and fall like the tides. Right now, the tide is rising.
When I see yields begin to rise, I begin to consider where I can park more of my equity risk, or low yielding cash, in longer term bond or fixed-income investments to yield a greater return. If bond yields rise high enough, being that I'm now retired with no income other than stock appreciation, interest and dividends, I may be incentivized to move even more of my equity risk in a risk-off move to garner more safe and secured fixed income.
The more of your money you have in risk-off vehicles such as bonds, the safer your portfolio is from corrections and bear markets. Sure, you'll also receive less returns for the greater level of safety, but that balance is something each of us must manage given our individual variables. This is why here is so much talk about the fabled 60/40 portfolio and how it is performing at any given time. Too much risk at an age that doesn't call for it could materially impact your nest-egg in a catastrophic and unrecoverable way. Too much safety at a young age dilutes your returns at an age when you could weather the storms of the stock markets over a long period of time.
I hope you found this worthwhile!
TJ (Jeff)
This was actually a very good article on why Alphabet keeps winning based on its foundation and execution. It's arguably on top of my MLE (Model, Leadership & Execution) model for identifying and holding the best stocks in the market. I don't have any specific purpose for this post other than marveling at what Alphabet has been able to accomplish across a number of disparate verticals and, seemingly, eventually hits it out of the park on each of them.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/google-i-o-alphabet-ai-wall-street.html
The 1-year chart is pretty amazing but $GOOGL has had performance like this in its past, along with periods of time when the stock hasn't performed.
I've held $GOOGL since the beginning of its days as a public company, no long after its initial IPO in 2004. Over that time, there have been significant rallies and setbacks.
There's little reason to believe there won't be another setback or pressure on the shares at some point in the near future given its run, but it's a testimonial of their leadership as to how/why they're sitting on the top of the heap currently as the article points out. The only other company even remotely in the running would be $NVDA and I think $GOOGL is better positioned.
$NVDA currently holds a market cap lead of about $500M over that of $GOOGL, but that could change materially on Wednesday after the bell when Nvidia reports earnigns.
I expect Alphabet will eventually take over the mantle as the world's largest company within the next six months, but I don't think Nvidia will be sitting on its hands either.
You can't own enough great stocks. I own, and will continue to own, both of these names in size. In fact, $GOOGL is easily my single largest holding across all portfolios
I added the following positions to existing positions within my Primary account today:
I haven't done a new stock screen in a couple weeks. In this case, given the huge rise in the market of late, I'm looking for new/existing names to add to my Value + Income screens, but this time I'm removing Energy and Financial segments. The number of hits always grows when you include those two and, while I don't stay away from them, I'm very targeted in my approach to them.
As always, I'm using StockAnalysis (my Free Trial code ends on 5/31)
As always, I tend to tweak the input to make sure I get my list to 50 or below if at all possible. Any more than that and it's too heavy to do the research I like to do.
Inputs
Results
Quick Summary
I typically add Price, 50 DMA and 200 DMA to the screen so I can quickly gauge where the stock is trading within its recent range but I forgot to do that this iteration. I'll add it in later.
Some quick notes:
Thought you might find this interesting. I may need to relax the inputs a bit to zoom out to about twice the number of hits for greater breadth.
There does seem to be a growing drumbeat related to the AvS (AI vs Software) narrative recently. Some names are starting to be highlighted as being more protected and likely to thrive in the new AI environment, pretty much as expected.
These narratives tend to play out very broadly, taking everything down in a sector, putting on deep-freeze to a large number of names. But then, like thawing after a long winter, we start seeing green shoots appear. I like to find the names before it begins to happen, often times being too early.
I care most about revenues and earnings as reported during earnings releases, and we just haven't see the narrative play out yet. Until we do, it's just talk. Furthermore, the best companies that have already leveraged AI's capabilities and agentic models, aren't going to simply lie down and perish.
$CRWD and $PANW have already been pulled out as being threatened, though I think there could be another downside event with the next Anthropic agent iteration, but the long term trend is what I care about. These two names have already run to new highs after being frozen out.
$MSFT and $NOW are starting to thaw with green shoots, mostly from analysts who are starting to realize "...well, maybe ..." It happens every time.
$RDDT may be the one to own here for major return.
We're starting to see green shoots here as seen on the chart. We saw the big consolidation that hit in Jan/Feb. Held up well into the market swoon in March via a loose sideways channel, and just recently started seeing higher lows as we broke above recent short term resistance.
In my view, this is all about the AvS narrative. If it continues to thaw and $RDDT continues on the path of solid earnings like we've already seen, I think we threaten the new highs. Obviously, market conditions overall will be a head wind or tail wind, but the setup seems viable here.
Valuation is looking compelling and with a float of 139M:
Figured this would be a good little thing to do now and again as I see questions about using StockAnalysis to level-up your results. Still about two weeks left for the existing offer.
Please let me know if you'd like to see more of these. I basically live inside of SA and always willing to help with tips/tricks.
Market Movers
I use a lot of SA's functionality but started using more of the smaller features, like the Market Movers functionality. Someone brought up that they would like to use it to filter the top movers by market cap to remove the "noise" of smaller cap moves. A worthy strategy IMO.
The best way to do this in my estimation is to start with the primary "Market Movers" view, this the below case, "Top Gainers" and then use the "Screener" option:
When you do that you will see that "Price Change 1D" is already loaded. Now, click the blue "Add Filters" button ...
One of the most popular filters (of 300) is "Market Cap." Select that ...
You will see the "Market Cap" filed added, after which you can choose one of the specific value choices or enter your own. In this case, I'm going to choose anything "Over $2B:"
Additionally, change the "Price Change 1D" to any value you want to filter by.
Voila ....
You now have a filtered list of top 1D movers over $2B in market cap:
As one final tip, and this is where SA pulls away from so many others, you can "Save" your particular screen for quick revisit later. Name your screen, click "Save" and it's saved for you.
From that point on, any screen you save will be available for quick selection from your "Stock Screen" option.
TJ
I consider myself a very even keeled guy, non-judgmental and extremely optimistic and positive. If there's one thing I've come to learn and truly believe it's in the fact that a primary variable for long life is reduced anxiety, less stress and optimism. Stand next to a lot of happy people! I don't allow myself get get triggered by many things ....
....except for CNBC's Squawk on the Street segment when the Carl, Jim and David are talking in front of the activity there at the stock exchange and the young people get to watch from just behind the set as they are live. There's something about watching these young people 'vogue' for he cameras that annoys the hell out of me. It's irrational and I can't take my eyes off it/them. LOL. But today ... I cheered ....
One particular young kid waving at the camera, making love hand signs, over and over again at the 23 minute mark before someone with headphones, obviously from the set, went back there and obviously told him to knock it off. I felt vindicated.
I can't believe I took this much time to explain that ... I am lost.
Here's our open 10 minutes in:
Random Shots
I continue to look for opportunities to trim and raise cash. I reported on my cash position late last week, which is again over 10%. In my heart of hearts, I'd sell it all and go to the sidelines but that ain't me bro. I'm never that good with my timing and standing tall with a firm stance and two outstretched hands to stop a bull stampede is a questionable activity.
Damn, I'm getting cheeky today. Let's get to the Shots ...
On the decline today:
Ok, let's call it.
Here's your market at 7:10 AM PST
Actually firming up, a good sign.
Have a great day
TJ
$NVDA reports after the bell on Wed., 5/20 and AI names have been riding a crest, until last Friday at least. The old bull, $NVDA, has awoken, risen and seems to be taking its place again amongst the herd as the alpha.
Whether this is a sell-the-news event to end the euphoria-laden rally of late remains to be seen. To some degree, it seems prudent to at least suggest that the market needs to pause/retreat as a reset from the gains we've seen thus far. It's been crazy.
But, as we all know, rallies are not equal. Not all tickers are invited to play. Furthermore, during euphoria, eyes seems to spend far less time on needless and time-wasting metrics such as price, profitability (P/E), Free Cash Flow (FCF), debt and other extraneous data points. Yes, I say that tongue in cheek.
It's important to keep abreast of the ratios of our favorite companies. That's why I keep pounding the table on StockAnalysis, we can't lose sight of those things that present a safety net, a valuation, for our holdings.
Let's take a look at $NVDA right now, before earnings:
Here we have a very simple and relatively well defined breakout from a longer term sideways channel. There was a failed breakout above the channel back in November and then a drop below it due to market event (Iran) in March. Other than that, this sleep bear snored away until the valuation and AI intrigue couldn't hold it back again.
Someone tell me where the issue is if you choose to hold, or buy, $NVDA. It's a rhetorical question and that's why I purchased my 3/27 $190 Calls at the end of March. At worst, the valuation would support the stock at some point. At best, it would provide re-ignition of the trade as it headed into earnings if/when AI began to percolate and boil - it did both very quickly.
This is basically a fast play-out of my Phoenix trade concept. In this case, into a massive segment of outperformance in the market. It doesn't always have to be smaller cap stocks. Sometimes market leadership goes through the exact rotation and cycle.
Earnings
To be completely transparent, I've stopped worrying about and digging for the most accurate earnings projections on $NVDA. At this juncture it just doesn't matter to me because the beat-and-raise element is still there. There will be a time when it's not, but this is not that day. We're still too early in the game and the 600 lb. gorilla is still in charge. If the valuation wasn't what it was, I'd be more concerned.
A forward P/E of 26, PEG of 0.68, ROIC of 126%, and gross margins over 71% into this super-cycle is a huge safety net. It's not whether or not NVDA can move higher, it's at what pace it does as the cycle plays out. What gets in the way between these meaningless metrics and AI narrative is what moves the stock. And, of course, we're not in control of that. We can only wait to take advantage of it - like I did. Of course, I've also unloaded 2/3 of that short-term trade into the rise because i don't know when narrative and market events are going to take it right back down. That's the game we play.
I have every expectation that Nvidia is going to blow the doors off of earnings yet again. Capex of the Mag 7, and beyond, assures that. The long-term issue could eventually be the development of chips by Nvidia's top customers but that doesn't appear to be material enough at this juncture. As we have seen in the AvS (AI vs. Software) debate, however, narrative can be very powerful all the while it shows very little current impact.
What am I doing?
I have no plans to unload any shares into earnings. I still have 1/3 of my 3/27 $190 Calls and will keep them. I unloaded 2/3 to lock in the profits. I trim because it helps me feel good about the control over positions, and because greed is what turns short-term profit into reduced profits and, potentially, loss. Nothing I hate more.
I also don't have a strong desire to increase my NVDA position at this time. I like the weight I have, their position, valuation and future enough to keep holding. I call it "getting cute" and I don't like to get cute with my own narratives. Sometimes we can lull ourselves into thinking that we predict the unpredictable, we get cute with our actions, and suffer the consequences.
Don't get cute. You can't have enough great companies, great stocks. $NVDA is still just that.
TJ
By now you know I reached out to StockAnalysis.com (SA) for an affiliate code to pass onto InnerCircle members. As one who is always very sensitive to coming off as a salesman, or 'selling out,' I figured I need to do a better job of explaining why I'm such a huge proponent of their service and why I use it for more than 90% of my stock work.
If there are two things I pound the table on for investors/traders to improve their results it's:
You do NOT need to use my affiliate code if your values M.O. suggests otherwise. I don't care. But I cannot recommend any single site more than I do StockAnalysis.com. The cost is ridiculously cheap even without the discount code.
You can find the latest offer that expires on 5/31 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/InnerCircleInvesting/comments/1td2vsd/stockanalysiscom_new_offer/
First, SA offers a "Pro" and "Unlimited" plans. Unless you plan on doing a lot of downloads and large watchlists (like I do), you may not need the "Unlimited" plan, which is $3 more expensive on a monthly basis, for this offer. I love large watch lists when I can have them but I suggest starting smaller.
Primary Reasons for SA
Examples
It's rather flat to simply list off features. Here are a few screen shots that hit on the data points above. I'll highlight particular areas of interest for me.
Metrics:
I need to be able to quickly see key metrics such as P/E, PEG, ROIC, ROE, FCF, FCF Margin, FCF Yield, Float, etc. Furthermore, the ability to quickly see the financials related to the Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow are key to my 30-60 second elevator assessment on a stock. From there, I can choose to go down the rabbit hole, never leaving the site.
Watchlist Customization
You know me and my touted watchlist data. This is what I use most often during the day as I survey the stocks I'm watching, keeping my watchlist tight and effective for quick discovery and analysis. This is where most of my trades/investments come from. The ability to quickly put stocks on/off the list, include key metric data and sort quickly is paramount to my success.
Stock Screening
I need a large sandbox for which to uncover/identify potential stock plays BEFORE they go big. This is where I have uncovered stocks like $VRT $MRVL $ONTO $P $DUOL $CRDO $MU etc. before they moved. The ability to create and save different screens for different types of identification, along with quickly adjusting the metrics to drill down a large screen into smaller numbers for quicker analysis, is key.
Charting
I like to keep my charts streamlined and uncluttered. Give me timeline options, the ability to quickly overlay a 50 and 200 day moving averages (MA) and sometimes a MACDh, and I'm happy. I don't want a cluttered chart showing too much data such that I might miss something. See the 50 day dip below the 200 and then rise back above it and separate? This is why I keep things clean.
Comparison Tool(s)
SA gives me the quickest, most efficient and customizable ability for comparing stocks side-by-side. I missed this feature for a long time until I found it. The ability to sort charts based on numerous inputs but then (second image) the ability to compare financials in a customizable way based on your own view desires is incredible.
Other Features
Timeline Gainers/Losers/etc
In the below image we see Market Movers identified by gainers over the prior month as selected:
Customizable Heat Map
Summary
I could go on and on but won't bore you. This is the "why" behind why I recommend StockAnalysis.com so highly.
Once again, if you have a personal value M.O. such that you do not purchase using affiliate codes or the like then please do not feel the need to use my code. I'm only offering it to save money. Purchase it without use of the code to level-up your results
If you have any questions or testimonials to share, please ask/share.
Have a great Sunday
Jeff
I was wondering if/when this was going to take place as Greg Abel took over as CEO
Here are a few of the notable changes (from the article):
The following are some of the notable eliminations from the portfolio:
Other notes:
As if GOOGL needed another bullish variable. Will be interesting to see if this weekend news moves the stock this week.
Sometimes in discussing what moves markets, how to leverage them, and how to take advantage we have to drop the curtain and look at the what is of a situation, not what we'd like it to be, what it should be or could be.
CNBC has a piece that addresses a topic anyone with a desire for objective research and knowledge already understands.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/trump-palantir-stock-truth-social.html
DJT will/would use his position to advance the one thing he cares most about - his wealth. Before his first time as president, it was one of my multi-point bullet points to watch as it related to market opportunity. I've followed his career for three decades and it wasn't even a question as to whether he would use his influence to grow his wealth, it was only a matter of how and how often.
Let's face it, using positional influence is nothing new despite how the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) would like it to be different. Hell, there's still a large segment of the trading population that track Nancy Pelosi's trades. I'm sure there are others. Furthermore, with many individuals, I don't care about 'proof' as much as I care about human nature, history and established values. Just like analysts talking their books, people with large sums of money in the markets are going to talk theirs.
Based on this article, that would be bullish for names such as $PLTR $NVDA $NOW $WDAY $ORCL $MSFT $AMZN $AAPL and $AVGO.
My horrible stab-in-the dark entry into $CBRS not withstanding, this is going to be a very interesting study over the long term.
There's no planet that would see this IPO as well-valued, not expensive or otherwise intriguing on any valuation metric. If you're interested in $CBRS, it's specifically as a momentum and momentum-into-AI play. I won't even get into the valuation as it's a waste of time. Think well beyond the moon, if we're going to use celestial analogies.
Here's the chart given it's two-day lifetime:
Talk about a paradigm shift related to shrinking AI chipsets. Quoting a Motley Fool article (which I hate doing):
Cerebras' wafer-scale engine (WSE) is 58 times bigger than Nvidia's B200 chip. And the company says the WSE offers more than 2,600 times the memory bandwidth of two Nvidia chips working together. Customers can access Cerebras technology in several ways: They may order hardware to deploy in their own facilities, access Cerebras chips through the Cerebras Cloud, or turn to other cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS).
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cerebras-soared-68-first-day-082300924.html
In that linked article, they mention a 10x jump in revenues in three years with revenues surging to $510M (76%) in 2025.
If you haven't had a chance to see their wafer, he's an image.
Based on the S-1, Cerebras' is not your very typical 180 lock-up period where a flood of shares hits the markets as insiders are free to dump 'locked' shares. Instead, $CBRS is taking a staggered-lock up approach where shares can trickle into the market over a period of time.
At IPO, we're talking a tiny 34.5 share float (shares available for purchase after underwriting options exercised). This is a variable I watch closely for growth companies I invest in. Combine a small float with a successful model and splits over a long period in time and you have the recipe for a very valuable cookie.
It looks like upwards of 84M additional shares could unlock in three months (August), nearly quadrupling the float if my assumptions/calculations are correct. Then, in late October, that float could balloon again to as much as 217M (considering option allotments, etc.) maximus. If someone has exact math, please feel free to chime in.
I went to Kate (AI Assistant) to table format this for me:
| Stage | Date / window | Newly eligible shares | Cumulative eligible Class B shares | Approx total tradable/eligible float |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPO float | May 2026 | 34.5M IPO shares | — | 34.5M |
| First major unlock | By Aug. 19, 2026 | +84M Class B | 84M | ~118.5M |
| Final major unlock | By late Oct. 2026 | +87M more Class B | 171M | ~205.5M |
Summary
What does this all mean? While I'd prefer a much smaller float, this is far less concerning than is current valuation into market opportunity. Cerebras is addressing the "inference" and ultra-fast token generation, arguably the first, largest and most successful public company to do so. As such, the upside is tremendous, if successful, and the downside is total failure due to larger players closing the gap and taking control of the market.
Token generation is what most users are looking for. How quickly AI generates tokens largely impacts user satisfaction by reducing lag, latency, thinking etc. Of course, token generation for the sake of speed is not necessarily a good thing. Speed kills, potentially, if we're optimizing for speed to the detriment of accuracy. NOT a good thing.
With Cerebras' WFE technology, they have changed the game, and the paradigm, with the focus now purely on inference. If they're able to achieve this, as recognized by the customers who choose to purchase their technology, we're looking at a potential baby Nvidia game. The issue, to me, is though we are in the early innings of the AI ballgame, companies like Cerebras likely no longer have that clear runway to simply run away from competitors like Nvidia did. Not impossible, but the large AI chip producers are certainly watching, planning and plotting how to address this market and adapt.
My primary question with $CRBS remains: Is there a clear path to profitability?
The answer seems to be yes as they are GAAP positive now. But it's a messy picture because of one-time gain. Subtracting that out, moves them to a (~$76M) loss.
In my eyes, still pretty impressive. So, what we have here is an impressive first picture but a very unclear long-term picture. They still must prove that they can sustain a level of profitability going forward. I'm optimistic based on their path thus far, but it's very early.
I do want to see their total debt stay where it's at and not increase.
Going to be a very interesting situation to follow, especially as more IPOs line up and we begin to potentially approach 1999 level activity, thus creating a greater cacophony of "bubble" talk.
