This is my second 1U entry into this particular position.

I have to use this recent haircut in the shares to add another leg to this position. It could be early now that the stock is not only the 50 DMA, but also the 200 DMA. Will those two daily moving averages pull it back up or will it break down further. If this line breaks, $335 is calling. But I'm leaving enough to keep adding this name as far out as I can.

For those wondering about LEAPS (I'm looking at you neighbor), it gives me the option to buy the shares at $300 on 12/15/2028 (or before). For that option, I have to pay $142.75 per share. Add that to the $300 level and that means that break even is at $442.75. I have to be comfortable with the thought that $AVGO will be higher than $442.75 on 12/15/2028.

$AVGO 1-year

Markets are struggling to maintain composure though the US Treasury is double its purchase of debt, sending bond yields lower. The struggle is real:

7:45 AM PST

Once again, we're still bouncing within a range and haven't been able to break free of the gravitational pull to head higher with any conviction. It's basically a market where I'm willing to purchase most of anything. If I were, I'd be looking at pure value names and that is what is moving today.

Some very interesting price action out there right now and patience, I think, is going to be rewarded. Just get out of that habit where your hands are moving to buy simply because something looks cheap from where it was yesterday. Learn to zoom out and let the market tell you where it wants to go, where it is going. These range bound periods can be dangerous because you can easily be lulled into thinking you're making good purchases when, instead, you're simply buying the same level over and over again, deploying all your capital and have nothing left when the bottom drops out.

And then there's the below article. Remember how I've been talking about the prediction markets and the role it/they are playing in the stock market?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/hedge-funds-are-about-to-jump-in-big-to-prediction-markets.html

Yeah, so ... there's that.

Random Shots

Rising

• $CRCL up 10%
• $MSTR up 10% - Bitcoin related?
• $NEM up 8.6% - Gold is back baby. Big move recently on rates
• $MRVL up 7.5% - Google deal. $AVGO suffering
• $NOW up 7% - AvS baby
• $DUOL up 6.4% - Ditto
• $HOOD up 5% - Anything crypto related is moving today
• $BRZE up 5%
• $CRM up 5% - AvS
• $UBER up 4.22% - It moves with value/AvS strength

Falling

• $NBIS down 10% - F'ing dilution. But at least I wasn't greedy with my Option Wheel
• $CRWD down 6.9%
• $DELL off 6.9%
• $MRAM down 6.8%
• $AMKR down 6.1%
• $PANW off 5.3% - Getting the picture?
• $AVGO down 4.8% - $MRVL deal hurting this name
• $CRDO down 4.6%. I'm waiting for sub-$200
• $RKLB down 4.3%
• $COHR down 4% - It's still in the range

Misc.

• Look at $NFLX go! Up 4.1% and nearing $81. My stock replacement move is printing
• $SKHY up 3.2% after announcing a big $29B buyback program. Heady move
• $NVDA holding flat with earnings not far away
• $SNDK and $MU dying on the vine again. Going to be tough to move higher the longer this goes on
• $AAPL doing $AAPL things in the down market. It's the 'value' trade right now
• $AVGO hitting the support line right here at $360. Dangerous. I'm waiting to add
• Right now this market is signaling it's all about the swing trade. Buy low, sell high ... but be sure to sell
• Photonics and AI connection stocks couldn't hold gains. Not surprised
• Despite analyst comments, these AI plays can't hold gains. That's usually a bad sign. Analysts have started saying crazy things about the S&P targets, stocks, etc.
• $NBIS dilution event makes me frustrated again. Hate it. At the same time, I get it. Back on my Option Wheel white board but letting it sit a day or two. May focus on 8/28 expiration
• $PLTR holding $170s is noteworthy
• $SCHD hit a new 52WH today. That's we hold it and get paid 3% at the same time
• $TOST at $36

That's all for now. Going to look at Option Wheel pricing, $AVGO LEAPS and see if anything else beckons while I do everything I can to sit on my hands

Be good to each other out there!

J

Is just punishing bullish purchases. Meaning, initiating or adding shares into rallies into/over short-term support. I've looked across many of the market leading names for AI related momentum and they're nearly all displaying the same trend.

I then went back to survey my entries from the additions of shares, but primarily first/placeholder entries, and found that many of them had been made on these support + breakout trends, only to then come right back down ... thus punishing my entry price. Now, that's all and good because of my unit methodology but I still prefer lower entry cost, regardless of discipline.

This makes me fearful for what happens when we complete another cycle, currently happening, base out at support ... but instead of rallying off it, break support in a bearish breakdown. Of course, that's why I added a two-leg Put ladder, but I still prefer to see upside.

Watch out for that $QQQ $700 level.

$QQQ 1-Year

Viewing TLN as the higher risk, higher reward version of my $VST position, same AI power demand thesis just more leverage on the balance sheet. Caught it on today’s broader pullback across AI infra names, VST and a few power peers were down hard too. Sizing around .5U, more of a satellite than a core add.

Earnings looked pretty good, stock getting crushed, down 20.5%.

I've had this name on my list to be purchased along with $CRDO but haven't found the opportunity. Small float, great space, similar to $LITE/$COHR but still differentiated. Analyst targets are in the $700s but I don't much care about that.

]This is more about the market than it is the earnings. Guide and forward looking statements were great as well. Still not chasing it here and it's still in that range I've mentioned. If I can see another 10% to the downside, I'll bite. If I don't, I may still bite but at a small placeholder position.

$FN 1-Year

It’s looking like a bloodbath at the moment only 30 minutes in to market opening, def a day to watch and see the stocks you might have missed out on drops to a good entry point to start a position. This slide could be interesting to watch… 📉📉 (time) 📈📈

7:40 AM PST

Bonds will do that to you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html

A 19-year high yield on the 30-year is not positive for stocks. Inflation, oil, tariffs and general economic uncertainty is sending bond prices lower, spiking yields. Some whispers of 6% have started to weed its way into discussions. That can't happen without stocks taking a big dive.

The 10-year is at 4.73%.

Oh, and then there's DJT threatening to bomb Oman if they hinder negotiations with Iran. Yeah, that's nice.

And, if you want something else? How about the national debt now having a 4-handle, at $40 Trillion. Yay us! As yields rise, everyone pays more to service debt.

I continue to watch the $QQQ and thinking about putting back on my put ladder. We're in the middle of August, September looms, earnings are winding down and there's plenty of reasons to shake a stick at as to what could usher in more weakness.

This is why I have not been chasing any green at this juncture. I'm willing to wade into some value if I can get behind the P/E, PEG and other metrics but I'm also very mindful that just because a stock has dropped 10% doesn't mean that it's time to add. After all, it may have risen 10% over the last week. You need to understand the recent range and price action lest you assemble your entire weighted position at a point where the stock is in a tight range and you risk seeing it break through support with no remaining capital. $VST is a stock where I may have done this - it happens.

Random Shots

Rising

• $DUOL leading the list up 6.6%. It gets a nice upgrade and has been percolating higher
• $BRZE up 3.8%
• $ABBV up 2.4%. One of my top holds and yield plays. I'll own this one forever
• $EIX up 2.8% - Income plays will move higher
• $NFLX up 2.5% - Value
• $CRM up 2.5%. Software has become the risk-off move. Markets fall, software rises
• $NOW up 2.5% ditto
• $TOST up 2.1%
• $BABA up 2.1% sort of ditto
• $MDT up 2%. Got a nice mention in Barron's. I still hold it and will keep it

Falling

• $CBRS down 11.5% - Was there any real doubt this would happen?
• $COHR down 10.5%. All the names have run so this was ordained. Not chasing
• $CRDO down 9%. Same here, one name I keep wanting but being patient
• $AMKR down 8.4%. It has run big since I purchased 12/28 LEAPS.
• $BE off 8.3%. Nothing safe in AI right now, inc. power
• $CRWV off 8%
• $SNDK down 7.4%. It has had a big run. It and $MU are the new trading stocks
• $MRAM down 7.1%. Follow-on trade
• $MRVL down 6.9%. Not shocking
• $ARM down 6.8% ditto

Misc

• These Rising/Falling top 10 are hard to do in volatile markets. Even as quickly as I list them, they change - So, it's all relative
• $HD had good earning, stock is all over the place. Green, red and now green again. up 0.3%
• $KLAR down 21% on guide, but they had surprised with a profit. No touching it
• How about this move? $AMLX up 41.4% on result
• I talk about "story" a lot when we talk stocks and long-term catalyst holds. When a story changes, it's easy to miss and to simply keep buying. $LULU is new $UA. Wow, that 5-year chart, from $500 to $118
• $TTD is another one and multiple individuals have asked me about it. Was $140, now under $14
• $AAPL and $MSFT have become the safe haven stocks of he Mag 7. Both green today
• $BROS has dipped back below $50. Recent run could be held again. I own it and will continue to but you have to keep your eyes on the horizon. Still like it
• $NBIS actually holding up well into today's decline, down 0.5%. Not wading back in for the Option Wheel on this one yet
• $P is modestly green today

Final Word

It's such a typical red tape today, not much is even really standing out. This is a day to close down the quote screen and take a day off the market. The bond news is going to take a while to play out. That could, should, have lasting impact on the markets.

I'll be looking at the Put Ladder opportunity again, or maybe just start loading up a single Put strike aiming for 1/27 to give myself some lead. Going to do some research on that now. I dumped about 2/3 of my cash into $SGOV and could raise a bit more while I decide what to do.

I'm not seeing anything that compelling for the Option Wheel right now and I don't like buying into FUD because you can get exercises very quickly. That's not a bad thing if you're committed to the Call selling that needs to happen if/when assigned, but you have to make sure you love the stock you're wheeling and must be confident in the price paid. This is not a time to arbitrarily set a strike on implied volatility and be caught with a very expensive stock into any sort of extended downside.

7:10 AM PST

....as expected. We're sliding. Time to look at that Put ladder.

Have a good Tuesday!

TJ

Putting a two-leg $QQQ 1/27 Put ladder on at strikes $625 and $675

• 1U 1/27 $625 Put at $12.75
• 3U 1/27 $675 Put at $22.40

Targeting a potential of up to three separate purchases of these Puts as I average in, but will allow that to play out based on how the $QQQs perform. Just a little hedge which worked well before.

Processing img 2rnwnaquo5kh1...

https://preview.redd.it/tvli68c39yjh1.png?width=1023&format=png&auto=webp&s=73e709a878e2e2f26e2c49b4fa79edc802066151

It's easy to get stuck in a market cycle where you feel you need to make moves to keep up with wealth generation. We all fall into this trap. The problem is, today, that there is so much more coverage, chatter ... influence, that it can be tough to get away from.

6:35 AM PST

Of course, there's another problem in that speculation markets are now being constructed right along with investing activities which only blurs the lines between healthy and unhealthy activities. I'm not here to say that speculation, when balanced and under control, is a bad thing. If moderated, it can be quite fun. What I am saying is that it's a slippery slope.

I'm known for touting "get rich slow" techniques and discipline, all the while fully embracing some level of speculation,. But you must understand the difference, again, between speculation kept in check, and speculation without boundary that begins to influence other behavior. And, again, it's very, very easy to lose those guardrails and forget discipline, even if very experienced. I've always fought this.

What does that look like?

• You wake up in the AM and your first course of action is checking your quotes
• You're consumed with your device daily as you seek the the next big mover
• You can't build a diversified portfolio because you're falling in/out of love with individual stocks
• Your trades are all-in, all-out, because you need to sell in order to buy
• Your default positions are greater than 20%-25% of your portfolio
• You don't care about the long term valuation/fundamental equation of a company
• Your market activities and tactics impact your focus, happiness and relationship activities

Obviously, a couple of these can define you at any point in your investment/trading journey. Too many of them, and for too long, and you have the markets for psychological and financial ruin.

It's so easy to get swept downstream by these markets and the money involved. I've been there, I've been swept away, I get it. Thankfully, I've always been so pragmatic and objective when evaluating myself (and others) that I've been able to take corrective action. But it is not easy.

I'm still very define by the first bullet on the list.

Take a deep breath, evaluate your reality and determine if something needs to change. Then, commit to that change. Get rich slow principles should always make up 80-90% of your activities.

Where to from here?

Isn't that the question.

Trees don't grow to the sky and and while I still believe we have some fertile soil to fuel future growth, I continue to watch the percolating negative catalysts. I then overlay the chaotic and mercurial DJT behavior(s) which provides a very high level of potential acute-event potential and I'm finding myself in, not a risk-off phase, but a risk-balanced and portfolios-in-balance, phase.

If anything, there's something to be seen or considered when looking at the Mag 7 in relation to the $QQQ

$QQQ vs $MAGS YTD

The Mag 7, as represented by the ETF $MAGS at 45% to that of the $QQQ. More over, if you look at this YTD chart, you will note generalized correlation - until the last two weeks. You can clearly see the different paths the two have taken since Aug. 1.

Many have been calling for a change in the Mag 7 and, if you ask me, it's doomed to suffer a slow death as it gets revamped, rebranded, or refilled with new names. Whether it should is another question. If pressed, I'd suggest increasing it to a different number, with some new four-letter symbol - I'm actually working on that now.

Heading into September shortly, typically the weakest month for stocks, it sure seems that we're ripe for a period of consolidation. That doesn't mean exiting all positions in preparation for a bear market, or even a correction. I thought we were on the precipice of a decline a year ago at nearly this exact time. I was more certain of it than at any time in the past. The issue is that many of these same downside catalysts remain, all the while the markets, the S&P500 is substantially elevated (7,777) today vs. one year ago (6,450), 20.6%.

For you home gamers, that means that despite how closely you follow the markets, you can't let yourself get too cocky about being able to time the markets. It's okay to adjust risk and investment level to whatever helps you sleep at night, but don't make wholesale changes.

7:10 AM PST Pivot

We didn't pivot at all at the 7:10 AM pivot point - we may be in a bit of a settling period while we wait for the next big earnings reports.

I've been fine tuning my primary portfolio, trimming a little, and shaping my portfolios much like the pruning we do to our yard to make it look nice. Ever notice how your landscaping looks so nice after your maintenance crew (or you) take the time to shape everything up? Yeah, that!

Earnings have been fantastic. It looks like some of the rotation in the alt-AI names are moving and had based well to provide a foundation for the next move. Earnings can't save the overvaluation or negative catalyst aspect to the markets but they can go a long way toward kicking the can down the road. If we can hold values and declines to normal levels while earnings play out, maybe we can put in a foundation within 7-8% over the balance of the year.

My fear is the DJT acute event that throws us back into correction territory. The good news with that potential, as long as it doesn't turn chronic (tariffs, oil, war, etc.) is that it could be a reset and be very investable.

Random Shots

Rising

• $CBRS up a whopping 15% and over $250. Could it be? Could it? Maybe? Still holding
• $SNDK up 8% - Memory is back!
• $CRDO up 6.2% - So is AI connectivity
• $DRAM up 5.8% - My unit methodology worked pretty well on this one so far
• $MRVL up 6% - Own it, don't trad it
• $COHR up 5.7%
• $SPCX up 5.1%
• $BE up 5.1%
• $MU up 4.5%
• $EWY up 3.9% - South Korea ETF led by SK Hynix and Samsung

Falling

• $SOUN off 5.5% - Post earnings malaise
• $USAR off 4.9% - It's been on a huge run
• $DELL down 3.9% - Also has been running
• $BRZE down 3.4%
• $AVAV down 3.3% - You're getting the trend
• $BROS down 3.1%
• $NBIS down 3.2% - No Option Wheel yet on this name for me
• $NOW down 3.1% - AvS had some time in the sun
• $CEG off 2.6%
• $RDDT down 2.4%

Misc

• $SKHY up 4.7% again - It has been treating me very well and it has been a focus build for me. Not chasing the green here for more entries but I have more units to add
• $AVGO up 0.5%. It had that very interesting acute drop on Friday. I probably need to add but enjoying the feeling of not buying much right now
• As my $NBIS Option Wheel reset/exited, my cash is back to about 10%. I moved 2/3 of it to $SGOV for short-term parking
• $NVDA reports earnings in just over a week and it's hanging in there, up 0.7% today to $226.66. This reminds me so much of their stall and set up from $100 points ago
• $GOOGL is providing a good entry point here at $343 after more weakness. Down 0.8%
• $AMKR up 4.2% now. This has been one of my better entries recently. It's up 39% since my purchase recently. 12/28 $40 Calls
• I need to look into what is moving $CBRS unless it's just something to do with the 8/18 next lockup period, but that is strange action if so
• Still trying to decide what to do with $FLKR, my South Korean ETF. I have it for $SKHY primarily, but now invest directly in $SKHY, but I like the exposure to other SK names like Samsung
• $LITE is making me very happy, about to cross $1,000 again. I've been very pleased with my execution on building that AI photonics/connectivity mix in my portfolio
• That said, I missed $CRDO badly on that big drop
• $META is facing a HUGE lawsuit right now. Glad I'm out
• $P is actually hanging in there. I'm considering a small trim. Down 1.1% but up huge
• Look at $SPCX go, up 5.45%

That's all for now!

Have a great week

Jeff/El Jefe/TJ

Position is up 65% and while I hate to trim a favorite position, a little 15% schnitzel to take it down a bit is perfectly okay. I can always add it back. Let the other 85% do what it will, it's still a long term play

I mean, c'mon now, look at that chart:

$P 1-Year

I haven't done a "Weekend Screen" post in a while now.

This is something new that I've done in this iteration of the The Inner Circle (TIC) community over the last two years from its first iteration between 1998-2024. Damn, that makes me feel old.

If there's one question I get over and over again, here at via my TikTok channel it's: Where do you find the stocks to follow?

Truth be told, they come from anywhere. Media outlets like Bloomberg, CNBC or Yahoo. Analyst reports, stories, people on the street. Technology white papers and segment research turns up names all the time. But my favorite way to find tomorrow's winners is through the "Stock Screen."

Why?

Because it allows my to bring to bear all my years of experience, education and work in this area, boil it down to my most material data points toward finding quality companies and stocks, inputting the information and turning the handle to see what comes out. Without this process, there's too many fish in the sea.

I use multiple different screens. Some of them allow my to be like Buffett. Some of them allow me to operate more like a hedge fund while others more like an income manager or standard investment analyst. It just depends on what I'm looking for within the current dynamic of the market. Given today's rich valuations, volatility and extended bull cycle, it's a time when I don't want to turn my back on growth, but it needs to be the right type of growth.

This is a good time to mention the post where I break down some of the features of the StockAnalysis (SA) site I so highly suggest. It's the only affiliate code I offer because I love what they do.

Through these screens, they provided my first identification an analysis of names like $VRT, $P, $MRVL, $ONTO, $ARM, $VST, $CEG, $TLN, and so many others I wish I would have actually acted on. That's a key point to make - the screen is an 'identification' tool. It starts the process only. You then need to go down the rabbit hole to further filter the stocks down to a handful of names that are most interesting. I do all this work in StockAnalysis.com

GARP

Growth at a Reasonable Price, GARP, is probably my favorite screen. At my core, I may not like the "ARP" as much as the "G" but there needs to be something to get my arms around to allow me to feel 'safer' with my investments. That is what today's screen is getting after.

First, the inputs for today's screen:

GARP Screen

First thing to notice is the yellow box indicating that we're using my "GARP" screen. If you're new to StockAnalysis.com, this is where you can format and save all your screens.

Based on the number of results any screen gets, we can then modify some of these filters to tighten the field. This is a primary activity because there's not enough time to always be researching hundreds of hits with each screen. I find 25-50 is the sweet spot for a net that catches the best fish.

The "GARP" screen can be a wide net on its own. I use FCF Yield and PEG to help drill down the names to a more manageable number. You may notice I'm not using Market Cap. This is because I want to get smaller companies as well, those that offer the most potential upside. With some of the fields you will see a filter of "Any" which simply means I want the column on the screen so I can sort by it. Often times I'll use "RSI" as a filter so I can see how the stock is being valued in the market currently. This is also why I use "Stock "price" and "Moving Average" fields. And, of course, you know I also like to see the "Forward P/E." I will often use this to further reduce the hit list if we see too many names.

First Pass Results

The first pass of this GARP screen yielded 102 names, too many. I am also searching by ROIC (Return On Invested Capital).

https://preview.redd.it/ow1piagg5rjh1.png?width=1067&format=png&auto=webp&s=a10e61b85fa471e156c73c7eb77639dc6d5e0060

I need to selectively boil this number down to closer to 50:

The adjusted Filter:

https://preview.redd.it/wlncoqmz6rjh1.png?width=1033&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f73f1a0f7852a3212d6a5004a49f86f4a3dadca

Notice I did not add in any "Forward P/E" filter value. That is because the combination of PEG plus FCF Margin is doing a lot of the heavy lifting to find these GARP names while "ROIC" is still focusing on quality company models.

Bumping ROIC, FCF Margin and Revenue Growth 3Y just means we're focusing on the cream at the top of this GARP screen

Second Pass Results

Much better, we cut the field down by almost half, now 53 names.

https://preview.redd.it/2t9p033m7rjh1.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9c6b14a7742488caa7ee3bf34cbdb0f068e63b1

https://preview.redd.it/beaysc5q7rjh1.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac7ae63cee02daebf6655325d24f59c4029bf29d

The Results & Top Level Analysis

We've filtered out list down to 53 names that all represent some level of "Growth" and elements of "Reasonable Price," and have it sorted by ROIC to focus on pure quality. Again, this is just where the work begins. Now we can start surveying the field, tossing out anomalies, focusing more on PEG and Forward P/E while also surveying where each stock exists in its range related to current price, 50/200 MAs and RSI.

Immediately we see two AvS (AI vs. Software) stocks that jump out with solid numbers

• $VEEV
• $APP

As a matter of note, a very early screen found $VEEV in the mid $160s. I didn't enter the stock because I already had other AvS names like $NOW, $CRM, $MSFT, $RDDT, $PLTR, etc. But the metrics remain fantastic for both of these stocks. $APPs recent earnings, however, didn't paint a somewhat cautionary tale. Is the story changing?

We also see high volatility names like $SNDK, at #6, when ranking by ROIC. And SNDK has started bouncing again off recent lows.

I typically like to survey the names first and then start sorting by PEG which helps really tie down value and opportunity. Lack of PEG doesn't disqualify the names, it just means that something may be working against the reading:

• Analyst EPS-growth estimates aren’t available or aren’t reliable
• Expected EPS growth is negative or near zero
• The company has an unusual earnings base, making the PEG calculation nonsensical
• Data provider simply doesn’t calculate PEG for that name

This is why I filter across multiple valuation metrics.

From this point, I start surveying the list, looking for names that are familiar, in the news or with metrics that suggest more work is needed. For this pass, I'll be pulling out:

• $NXT
• $SNDK
• $KNSL
• $VEEV
• $APP
• $PDD
• $NVO
• $NBIX

...for further review

Summary

In a market like this, I don't like to let down my guard. I always factor current market health and valuation into my activities to help reduce the chance of a poorly timed investment. I like value and growth, but most stocks don't perform well into a broad decline. Cheap stocks get cheaper, momentum stocks get crushed.

Valuation and fundamentals act as the foundation and gravity for your investments. They give you something to hold onto, something to help value your positions while telling a story about potential growth. When talking about "Growth" you always have to be concerned with current market valuation as it's often the first component to be jettisoned. That is why the fundamentals attached to "Reasonable Price" of GARP is so important.

And, many times, we're just window shopping. Patience should always ride shotgun on your shopping trips.

This is why you also need to have a good stock analysis site like SA. You simply must start learning how to do some of your own fundamental mining. It only has to be as difficult as you want it to be. I find myself constantly researching and figuring out new/better ways to hone my valuation efforts, trying to pull back the curtain on better cash flow analysis and spot positive and negative trends. Companies are very good at hiding their skeletons. It's your job to be as knowledgeable as possible.

Have a great Sunday. I'll be diving into some of these names and will let you know what I find.

J

Lets have some fun on this Sunday before we get going on the week. Lets think outside of the box for a moment.

Your Holdings and the Mendoza Line.

For those that don't know what the Mendoza Line is, it's a baseball jargon term. Here's a little history. (Copy and Paste from Wikipedia)

The Mendoza Line baseball jargon for a .200 batting average, the supposed threshold for offensive futility in MLB. It derives from light-hitting shortstop Mario Mendoza, who failed to reach .200 five times in his nine major league season. When a position player's (non pitcher) batting average falls below .200, the player is said to be "below the Mendoza Line"

So here's the deal, at what return do you consider your "Mendoza Line" for your portfolio.

For example, if xxx stock drops below xxx% growth return it gets moved. If a xxx stock has a dividend rate below xxx% return it gets moved. Or any combo of the two.

I like using everyday sports analogies for investing terms. Like when I posted about your Core4 holdings (Offensive, Defensive, Growth). If you have other idea's on posts like this let us know. It's good to think outside of the box.

Happy Friday all, you made it!

Retail sales could weigh on the markets down 0.6% when there was an expectation of 0.1%. But finding what could move the market lower time and time again has shown to be only guesswork and little follow-through. This market is so resilient.

Don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend, etc. etc.

But, it doesn't mean you just sit and do nothing. Don't force action, but consider reaction if it makes sense. I continue to use this move to trim where I can, lock in some gains, bolster positions that need a bit more weight and, above all else, be patient. There's always time, other stocks and the market will be open again tomorrow (or next week).

Easy to say, hard to do.

The market isn't open yet so let me drop right into some random thoughts, not always just stock related.

• Memory stocks are surging back, as expected. $SNDK and $MU led the sector higher, then lower, based out at roughly half of from where they came from and are now on the uptick again. That's great for those who were patient, scaled into some of these names in addition to $DRAM (my choice).
• ...and of course, my favorite play in the segment $SKHY. I'll keep building this name. After a lot of research, it's my favorite name. Only at a 1% weight in the primary account but I also have it in the Roth IRA at 6%
• $RDDT is going into the S&P500 and is up 11%. I'll probably dump my 2028 LEAPS into it. I already trimmed them before the big drop but have 60% left. I still have long shares in the Primary (1.9%) and the Roth (10%). Just backfilling cash where I can.
• Without some major collapse in the shares of $NBIS today, this iteration of the Option Wheel will come to a close. I've decided to let them get called away rather than roll out and up or just out. Keeping greed in check and if you can get over 21% return in one month, you take it and stick to the goal from the original trade. I still have long shares in the Primary account and Roth (15.6%)
• What did I just hear? SNDK up 3,400% on the year? Yeah, there's that. And yet, fundamental valuation wise, it still looks great. But, momentum and herd mentality often ignore fundamentals for long stretches. AvS anyone? You have to be careful. Super-cycles in memory is a real thing and it often swings in 2-3 supply-demand cycles. Is this time different?
• The AvS (AI vs. Software) as I call it, is shifting. Just look at $WDAY. Also consider that after a long slump, my $NOW position has swung into the green. $CRM is not far from green. $PANW and $CRWD have gone nuts. $PLTR is back in a big way and the entire narrative has shifted - as expected. This is why I talk about herd mentality/lily pad opportunities. So much speculation in the market so any news is carrying greater knee-jerky reactions
• $P is now in the spotlight. This little company was one no one was talking about when it hit my stock valuation screen, as many others have as well. In this case, however, I decided to stick to my research, intuition and conviction and it's paying off. Now $117 when it was $55. But with the AI narrative/stack news still coming out related to this name, it could keep running. At the same time, I like to trim major moves and this constitutes as a major move.
• As a side note, after receiving a lot of interest income from shorts who borrowed my $SOUN shares, the shares were returned to me yesterday. They continue to have a big short position but the last earnings were pretty good.
• Talking about shifting narrative, $NFLX is now turning. $68 -> $78, very quickly. It's getting noticed by some big names
• On the AI front, something has happened with my agentic relationship via OpenAI of late. It's gotten very, very good. And I mean VERY good. I can be found walking around the house, in the garden, while working out, having an exploratory conversation with KATE (my AI assistant) and the memory aspect has been drastically improved. The conversant nature is incredible now, with her inflections, ability to hold a conversation while still giving impressive results. It's allowed me to be even more productive and explore topics. She still slips sometimes with facts but it's getting far less. I'm using her more and more on TIC for summary info but, have no fear, I always try to make sure that it's just summary info that is fact checked just in case.
• On a personal note, especially for those of you who are young, something I like to say: How old will you be in five years if you don't start now? This is just my way of saying to never stop growing, reaching for something more. I don't care how long it takes. A year? 5 Years? 10? If you don't start now, you'll be a year older, 5 years older, 10 years .... wishing you had invested that time to just 'start' - whatever it is.

Here's the open:

6:30 AM PST

Back to the shots:

Rising

• $RDDT up 13.5% as noted. I just exited my $150 LEAP calls
• $USAR up 5.6%. I've been highlighting this name as it hit the $13s. Should have taken it
• $NBIS up 5.4%. Good bye Option Wheel - ...and thank you
• $SNDK up 4.2%
• $NEM roaring back, up another 3.3%
• $CRWV up 3.4% as a follow on. Both neos are playing well after earnings
• $CEG up 2.6%. When does AI power become the next leader again after lagging. Soon I think
• $TSLA up 2%. I don't want it but it's good to see it get strength
• $IREN up 2%. Would rather have the other two but $IREN has a following
• $VST up 2%. Starting to percolate

Falling

• $DUOL off 3%. Software off today?
• $MSTR down 3.1%. Bitcoin era over? Is it an "Okay Unc" trend?
• $CRCL down 3%. Still waiting for the next drop
• $CBRS down 3%. Just try to find an entry. I'll just hold
• $NOW off 2.4% - Yup, software is off
• $AVGO down 2.4%. Still probably my favorite stock
• $CRDO off 2%. The sector has been strong of late, have to give some back
• $CRM down 1.6%
• $HOOD down 1.7% as it can't decouple from Bitcoin
• $SPCX down 1.6%. Short covering coming to an end?

Misc

• $CSCO earnings looked great, stock was hammered. Flat today
• $SKHY back over $170, nice! Up 3.1%
• Only a matter of time before $GOOGL head north. If I wasn't overweight, I'd be buying here. Up 0.7% to $348.70
• $AVAV trying to take out $200, up 2.5%.
• My South Korean ETF $FLKR is back to $60. I still may liquidate and just ride $DRAM instead but I kind of like the extra SK exposure
• $LITE running well, up 5.5% now to nearly $930. Still amazed they didn't announce a split
• $MDT had been a dog but I held on because it represented good yield and a cheap price. Back to over $90. Glad I held on as it provides good portfolio ballast
• $P down 0.7%. The run over?
• $SPCX down 2.7% after a great rally, probably on short covering. Still building the position but not chasing shares here

Final Word

This is one of those time when looking at my portfolios that I just have that nice deep breath that you get when you are standing on top of a mountain or in nature, and the breaths are deeper, the feelings of contentedness and balance feel great. Just like those times when you are laying in bed and you think "damn this feels good" and don't want to get out.

I've been working on restoring better balance, focus and structure. I'm focusing on owning shares at weights I feel really good about as I look up and down my portfolios. I want to ensure each position has a story, is balanced to my risk appetite and has a role. It's getting difficult to sell positions, even trim. And that's the way I like it.

Things could turn on a dime and be out of whack but this is not that day. My cash level will sit back above 10% as the most recent NBIS wheel stops rolling when the market closes today. I'll be doing more of that ... using my cash to start new wheels, selling upside Calls on positions that are extended. Keeping things in check.

Balance. It's often fleeting, but when you reach it. IYKYK.

Have a great Friday!

J

I may be getting ahead of myself here but, unless we get some sort of complete meltdown over the next few hours, to the tune of about a 20% decline in $NBIS shares, this iteration of the wheel is going to be closed.

For the first time, I decided that I would provide commentary from beginning to end of this trade since I know many are interested in not only the mechanics of the trade, but the psychology and thought processes behind it. And, for the first time, I shared actual dollar amounts with this trade just for ease of reporting.

I have an opportunity to roll up or out completely, I could just keep the 500 shares and leave it as a "Best Idea" (>4.5%) position in my portfolio. But seeing as how I already have long shares in the Primary portfolio and again in the Roth IRA, I'm sticking with the original goal of the trade, keeping greed in check, and will allow the shares to get called away at $220, thus closing out this wheel that took place just over one month.

I've looked at starting again by selling CSPs on NBIS but I'm not finding the setup to be particularly compelling so I'll just portfolio the cash and, potentially, just get it into safe yield instrument until I see something interesting.

Here is a brief recap of the entire trade from first CSPs through expected call-away later today. In short, the return was something I didn't want to jeopardize which is why I'm letting the shares go. Just over a month and a 21.31% return on cash is tough to beat.

https://preview.redd.it/ecsvs0mzzcjh1.png?width=683&format=png&auto=webp&s=345af1c12c8b179317fadce97033285a4ac0f99d

CRWV trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis

I'll research the catalyst context before writing.# A $250,000 Ticket Placed Two Days After the Best Print CoreWeave Has Ever Delivered

On 14 August 2026, at 11:27:35 ET, someone put on a two-legged put structure in CoreWeave, 4,000 contracts total, executed in the same second at matched size. They bought 2,000 of the September 18 $90 puts for $706,000 and sold 2,000 of the September 18 $85 puts for $456,000. Net cash out the door: **$250,000**.

The timing is the story. Two days earlier CoreWeave had put up the kind of quarter that usually ends the argument — revenue up 112% year over year, a record $104.2 billion backlog, with incremental commitments raising effective backlog to $129.2 billion, and a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin. The stock rocketed as much as 20% higher in premarket. Then it faded: on 13 August, CRWV traded between $104.80 and $117.49. Spot at the moment of this trade was $104.68 — the bottom of that range.

So this is not a bet placed into a vacuum. It was placed into the exhaustion of a very good number.

The Shape: A Narrow, Cheap, Bounded Slice of Downside

Strip the jargon. The trader paid $1.25 per share for the right to be short CRWV between $90 and $85, and only there, and only until 18 September — 35 days.

Above $90, the structure is inert. Below $85, it stops improving; the sold lower put caps it. The whole apparatus is worth something only if the stock travels roughly 15% lower inside five weeks, and everything the structure can become is fixed by the $5 gap between the strikes.

That bounded shape is the point, and it's what separates this from a simple bearish punt. A trader who wanted open-ended downside would have bought the $90 puts alone and skipped the $85 sale. Selling the lower strike surrenders every dollar of protection below $85 in exchange for cutting the cost by roughly 65%. You do that when you have a *specific* zone in mind — not when you think the floor is falling out. The financing leg is a statement: the scenario being paid for is a sharp retracement, not a collapse.

What the Trader Paid For, in the Language of Actual Exposure

Two numbers translate the Greeks.

The combined position carries a net delta of about −0.063 per share — the $90 leg at −0.219 against the $85 leg at −0.156. Across 2,000 spreads that's roughly the sensitivity of being short 12,600 shares, about $1.3 million of stock, for a $250,000 outlay. Modest directional weight, purchased with leverage.

Second, volatility. Both legs printed near 76% implied — CRWV trades like a high-beta AI infrastructure name, and that price of optionality is not cheap. The trader bought the 76.0% option and sold the 76.7% one, meaning they were a net buyer of the *less* expensive of the two. Small, but it's the correct side of the skew if you're paying up for a specific window rather than owning volatility outright.

The Fundamental Argument This Structure Sits Inside

The bear case for CoreWeave after a blowout quarter isn't about demand. It's about what demand costs. CoreWeave lifted the midpoint of its 2026 capex outlook by 12.1%, against a 2.4% increase in the revenue midpoint — spending guidance rising five times faster than revenue guidance. Net income for the last reported quarter was about −$740 million, and free cash flow ran roughly −$4.71 billion as CoreWeave poured about $7.70 billion into capex. And the backlog is real but long-dated: 21% of remaining performance obligations is expected to be recognized more than four years out.

That is the ambiguity a five-week put spread expresses. Not "the company is broken" — 45 analysts rate CRWV a Buy with an average target of $138.51 — but "the price already contains the good news, and the funding question hasn't been answered." The dispersion in the sell side says the same thing louder: targets run from $36 to $303. When professionals disagree by a factor of eight, defined-risk structures are how you take a position without betting the outcome.

What We Cannot Determine, and Why Saying So Matters

**Open versus close is not determinable here.** Not "probably opening." Not determinable.

The reason is specific. Prior-day open interest was measured for both legs — 7,387 contracts at the $85 strike, 7,515 at the $90. Each leg traded 2,000. Because the existing interest dwarfs the size, this 4,000-contract package could have been established fresh *or* unwound entirely inside pools that already existed, and the tape looks identical either way. Zero percent of the structure's contracts sit in legs that can be signed; the threshold for characterising the position is 60%. (The payload's top-level coverage flag reads `out_of_horizon` while the per-leg records are `covered` with real figures — the per-leg data is the binding evidence, and it still doesn't resolve the question.)

Two further honest gaps. We infer both legs belong to one trader from matched size and same-second execution — high confidence, not provable from public data. And the per-leg buyer/seller tagging is the weakest number in the file; the debit reading rests on the classifier's 90%-confidence structural fit, not on certainty about who lifted which offer.

What survives all of that: the structure leans **bearish**, and it leans bearish whether it was opened or closed. And even a confirmed new position can be insurance on equity, convertible, or private exposure we cannot see. Someone paid $250,000 for a narrow, time-boxed claim on CoreWeave trading 15% lower by 18 September. Why they wanted it is not in the data.

*Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry substantial risk of total loss, and the identity, intent, and full portfolio context of any trader discussed are unknown. Do your own work.*

8:15 AM PST

PPI gave us a nice little surprise, flat while we were expecting a 0.2% increase. Core rose 0.2% however, but that was still less than the 0.3% expectation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html

Random Shots

$NBIS (and Option Wheel)

Up another 1.5% this AM and printing $263 as I type this, but off the high of nearly $276. I'm forward-mourning what will be the loss of the 500 shares that will be called away tomorrow at expiration, as long as the stock doesn't crater below $220 (my strike). But ... that's the game we play when we run the wheel. But, more importantly, this is why I like trading around established positions. I already have core long positions in my Primary and Roth portfolios. This $NBIS option wheel exists in the Primary portfolio over and above my core position.

I'd be lying if I wasn't saying there's some desire to buy these Calls back and roll them up, keeping the shares but I'm holding to the original goal of the trade. Keeping greed in check. Recent earnings re-established the thesis and $CRWV's earnings helped as well. I don't want to turn what will be a great one month profit into a regret.

Rising

• $SNDK moving, up 15%
• $MU in tow, p 6.8%
• $CLS up 6.6% - Love seeing this. Still building this name
• $P up another 6%. I feel like a proud father
• $ARM up 5.3%. One of my favorite companies, not favorite stocks. It's pricey. Rene Hass is a dog and I love what they do. They could be the next huge stock looking out 5-7 years
• $CRDO up 5%. Still haven't added this name but want to. Missed it recently below $200
• $DELL hit an ATH I believe, up 2.8%
• $SKHY up 8.5%. The more I research, the more I love their position. I like it better than $MU. Still building
• $AMD pressing up $500 again, up 2.8%
• $MRVL up 5.4%

Falling

• $CBRS - Down 13.8%. I thought the earnings for fine for their place on the curve. Others don't agree. It's all about timeline and adoption. I'm giving them another 18-24 mos. without expectations impacting my decisioning. I just want to see it expand from niche
• $CSCO - Earnings looked good, stock down 8.7%. It's the market
• $COHR - Earnings were good, stock down 3.8%. Nothing to see here
• $AVAV off 3.3%. It's been running of late with space stocks
• $SPCX off 3.5%. Speaking of space stocks ....
• $ASTS off 2.8%. Speaking of space stocks ....
• $NEM down 2.9%. Speaking of ... oh wait, my bad
• $BABA down 2.4%. It's been percolating higher. Still watching
• $NOW off 2.3%. It's had a nice run. I think there's more there but it can't happen all at one time
• $TLN down 1.9%. AI Power still just laying there. Be patient. I think you'll be rewarded

Misc

• $NVDA hanging out at a nice $224 price. This reminds me so much of the $125 point a while back. Earnings on 8/26. I could make a case for trimming after this run, or holding
• $AVGO just hanging out too. Another 5% move higher would go a long way. Earnings on 9/2
• Today looks mostly like a digestion and position-massaging day. Memory is moving so my $DRAM/$FLKR holdings are doing well as is SNDK and MU. $SKHY is my primary play here and I like what I'm seeing. Still not ready to say it's any sort of breakout
• Really curious $LITE didn't announce a split with shares at $920. Small float, one of the reasons I love it. I think the split will be 10:1 when it does happen. I'm trying to slow my entries due
• $NFLX is moving, up 3.6% on the Pershing Square stake. Really dislike Ackman - dude is super greasy. But thanks for the bump Bill
• $GS up 1%. Take your pick between them and $JPM. I take/have both as well as $C and $MS
• Great to see $PLTR break and run. I had been expecting it but had given up trying to call the when of its equation. I don't claim to know things like that ... but I do get 6th sense feelings based on things like momentum, value, opportunity. I felt this one
• I think $CRWV could be heading much higher off that last earnings report. If they could do anything to address the debt, even though it's not horrible debt (it's commitment backed), this stock would rocket
• $RDDT is in a very curious spot. I'm stuck between selling the reset of my LEAPS or just hanging out with the shares. Up 0.8%
• You know another stock I love that gets very little 'press' time in my write ups? $AMGN. ATH. It just sits there in my portfolio alongside $ABBV printing money

Meh, I think I'll stop there .... struggling to find good words this AM. Basking in the glow of the green. Have a great day all

J

NVDA trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis

Someone Took Cash Up Front to Build a Very Specific NVDA Shape

At 1:17:31 p.m. ET, two December put blocks crossed together: 6,000 of the $170 puts were bought while 3,000 of the $210 puts were sold. Their matched expiration, same-second execution and exact 2:1 sizing strongly suggest one package, although public data cannot prove both legs belonged to the same trader.

Taken together, the structure collected a **$1.89 million net credit**. That is the story—not “someone bought puts.” The trader appears to have exchanged exposure to a moderate NVDA decline for protection against a much larger collapse, while receiving cash at entry.

The buy/sell classification is not especially reliable: confidence was only 40% on the lower-strike leg and 23% on the upper. The package should therefore be treated as the best reconstruction of ambiguous prints, not a definitive view into someone’s book.

The Position Dislikes the Middle More Than Either Extreme

NVDA was at $225.62, placing both strikes below the stock. Above $210 at December expiration, neither component has intrinsic value and the initial credit remains. Between $210 and $170, the short higher-strike put creates losses while the larger lower-strike position has not yet begun offsetting them.

The structure’s deepest expiration loss sits around $170: roughly **$12 million before the credit**, or about **$10.11 million after it**. Below $170, the two lower puts owned for every one higher put sold cause the package to recover. Its approximate expiration break-evens are $203.70 and $136.30.

That makes this a barbell-shaped view rather than a conventional bearish position. Under the reported leg directions, it is **modestly bullish near the current stock price**: the sensitivity of the 3,000 short $210 puts initially outweighs that of the 6,000 farther-out $170 puts. But if NVDA falls far enough, the structure’s directional exposure changes as the lower puts become increasingly relevant.

Earnings Arrive Long Before December

The immediate catalyst is NVIDIA’s fiscal second-quarter report on **August 26, 2026**, just 13 days after this trade. NVIDIA says results will be released around 1:20 p.m. PT, followed by its call at 2 p.m. PT. ([investor.nvidia.com](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Sets-Conference-Call-for-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx))

The prior quarter established a demanding backdrop: NVIDIA reported $81.6 billion of revenue, including $75.2 billion from Data Center, and guided to $91 billion for the coming quarter. It also said that outlook assumed no Data Center compute revenue from China. ([investor.nvidia.com](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx))

The December expiration gives this structure time to absorb more than one post-earnings reaction. Still, the nearby report matters because a large gap could move NVDA toward the package’s unfavorable middle zone—or begin making the lower-strike protection economically important—well before expiration.

The Dividend Headline Is Really a Capital-Allocation Story

Today’s chip-stock headline focused on low dividend yields, but NVIDIA’s recent actions show where much of its cash is going. In May, the company raised its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share, returned about $20 billion through dividends and repurchases during the quarter, and authorized another $80 billion of buybacks. ([investor.nvidia.com](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx))

At the trade’s $225.62 spot price, the new $1 annualized dividend still represents a yield of only about 0.44%. The larger signal is therefore not income support. It is NVIDIA’s willingness to direct substantial cash toward repurchases while continuing to fund the AI infrastructure cycle.

That does not explain this options package’s motive. It does explain why the upcoming report can matter beyond revenue and earnings: investors will also be evaluating whether cash generation and capital returns continue to justify the valuation embedded in the stock.

Open Versus Close Is Not Knowable Here

This package cannot be classified as opening, closing or rolling. Prior-day open interest was 23,115 contracts at the $170 strike and 15,966 at the $210 strike—both far larger than the respective prints. Either leg could therefore have been opened or closed inside existing interest, and none of the 9,000 contracts provides a clean position-change signal.

The payload’s aggregate coverage fields conflict with its leg-level records: the summary labels coverage “out of horizon,” while both individual legs are marked covered and supply prior open interest. That inconsistency does not change the conclusion. **Open versus close is not determinable.**

Nor does that uncertainty erase the directional shape. Under the reconstructed sides, the package is mildly bullish near $225.62, vulnerable to a substantial but contained decline, and increasingly defensive in a severe selloff. What remains unknowable is whether that exposure was newly created, removed, or used against another position we cannot see.

*Educational analysis only; options involve substantial risk, and public trade data cannot reveal a trader’s complete position or intent.*

Trimmed the position in my Roth by 15% here at $224.38. Why? Not sure ... it was a little impulsive but the stock is up over 20% very quickly and the position was well overweight in the Roth. It's now down to #3 behind $AVGO and $NBIS. $PLTR is just behind it. I may trim that as well.

$NVDA 1-Year