u/gagung1

SLV, GDX, SILJ, IAU

TRADE: Silver at $58 and gold below $4000.. I think this is a very attractive position to start (re)building a gold and silver sleeve. I have pretty high conviction that the upcoming macro environment won't keep the DXY up due to several reasons, such as the private credit market hitting the maturity wall, the U.S. national debt situation, and the government's strategy to boost GDP, so I am going to make gold & silver & miners ~20% of my portfolio.

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u/gagung1 — 12 days ago

Is PER (trailing) a good valuation metric for memory (MU, Hynix, Samsung, etc) firms?

Given the industry's cyclicality and commodity-like nature, aren't PER and PEG misleading since PER/PEG is bound to be "low" at their peak earning point of the cycle? If so, what other valuation metrics should we look at?

I was thinking price-to-book ratio. It says it includes account receivable, which I *think* should include supplier contracts, and this tells me something about these companies...

Looking at their price-to-book ratio, Hynix sits at 12.29 compared to historical high point (June 2024) of 2.8, Samsung sits at 4.77 compared to its highest at 2.09 (April 2021), MU sits at 18.86 (!) compared to 3.1 (June 2024), SNDK sits at 24.43.

What do you guys think?

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u/gagung1 — 13 days ago