u/xfrancisco

I added to Sivers Semiconductors at €6.49. I buy it through the Frankfurt listing, 2DG.F, since that is the cleanest route available to me.

This is still a speculative satellite position for me (1.5% of my portfolio). I am not treating Sivers like a core semiconductor holding. The reason I own it is narrower I want exposure to the AI optical-interconnect, and Sivers is one of the smaller public names with a direct link to that theme through InP DFB lasers, laser arrays, and external light-source technology.

The trade is really a bet that some of these relationships convert into product revenue over 2026/2027 before dilution eats the upside.

What I would like to see from here:

- Named volume orders, not just collaborations.
- Photonics product revenue growth, not just pipeline commentary.
- Gross margin improvement as product shipments scale.
- Evidence that Sivers is qualified into more than one high-volume platform.
- Cash burn coming down before the next major raise.

Until 2027 I’m sleeping easy on this.

I’m looking at Salesforce ($CRM) again because the market is treating it like a tired legacy SaaS company, while the numbers are starting to look more like a high-cash-flow value stock with an AI option attached.

The stock is around $162, down roughly 38% over the last year, near its 52-week low. That is the part that caught my attention. CRM is not priced like an AI winner right now but like a company whose best growth days are behind it.

That may be too pessimistic.

Salesforce did $41.5B of revenue in FY26, up 10% year over year. Free cash flow was $14.4B, up 16%, with a free cash flow margin of almost 35%. This is not a fragile software company burning cash to chase a story. It is a scaled enterprise platform generating serious cash.

At the current valuation, CRM trades at roughly:

- ~3.2x sales
- ~9x price/free cash flow
- ~12x forward earnings
- ~11x EV/free cash flow

For a company with Salesforce’s customer base, gross margin, operating leverage, and buyback capacity, that is not demanding.

The main debate is whether Salesforce can reaccelerate growth through AI, or whether AI eventually commoditizes parts of CRM software.

I think the market is too focused on the second risk and not giving enough credit to the first opportunity.

The AI piece is no longer just slideware. Salesforce reported Agentforce ARR of $800M, up 169% year over year, and Agentforce + Data 360 ARR above $2.9B, up more than 200% year over year. They have closed 29,000+ Agentforce deals since launch. Earlier in FY26, Data Cloud and AI ARR had already passed $1.2B, growing 120% year over year.

That matters because Salesforce’s advantage is not just the chatbot layer. The real asset is the system of record: sales data, service data, marketing data, customer history, workflows, permissions, and enterprise integrations. AI agents are only useful if they can act inside real business systems. Salesforce already owns a lot of those systems.

This is where I think the market may be missing something.

Salesforce does not need every AI interaction to happen inside the classic CRM user interface. The more important opportunity may be a headless system for AI agents.

By that I mean agents that operate through Salesforce in the background: reading customer records, updating opportunities, escalating cases, triggering workflows, checking permissions, writing notes, syncing with Slack, and pushing actions across the enterprise without a human clicking through dashboards all day.

If AI agents become a new interface for enterprise software, then Salesforce is in a strong position. The agent still needs a trusted backend. It needs clean customer data, identity, access control, workflow logic, audit trails, and integrations with the rest of the company. Salesforce already has a lot of that.

This could change the way people think about CRM. The old model was humans using Salesforce as a database and workflow tool. The next model could be AI agents using Salesforce as the operating layer for customer work.

That is why Agentforce and Data Cloud matter. Agentforce is the agent layer. Data Cloud is the data layer. Salesforce’s existing apps are the workflow and permissions layer. Put those together, and Salesforce can become infrastructure for enterprise AI agents, not just a SaaS application with AI features added on top.

The buyback is also meaningful. Salesforce returned $14.3B to shareholders in FY26, including $12.7B of repurchases, and authorized a new $50B buyback program. With the market cap around the mid-$130B range recently, that authorization is large relative to the company.

But as always, there’s some risks…

First, core CRM growth is mature. This is not a 25% compounder anymore. If AI revenue stays small relative to the base, the stock deserves a lower multiple.

Second, Salesforce has added debt after acquisitions, including Informatica. Net debt is now meaningful, so capital allocation matters more than before.

Third, the company still has to prove that Agentforce creates new revenue instead of just defending existing seats. “AI attached to SaaS” is not automatically a new growth curve.

Fourth, the headless-agent thesis has to show up in actual usage and revenue. It cannot stay as a nice product demo. If companies do not trust agents to take real actions inside customer workflows, then this remains an interesting feature rather than a new platform layer.

I would treat $CRM as a cash-generative enterprise software company where the AI upside is being underpriced.

At ~9x free cash flow, I think the risk/reward is interesting. The stock does not need perfection from here. It needs proof that Salesforce can defend the core business, keep shrinking the share count, and turn Agentforce/Data Cloud into a real second growth engine.

Just for the record I don’t own any $CRM, but I’m really considering this a BUY.

I added $MSFT yesterday at close and plan to keep building the position until it is around 5% of my portfolio.

This is not a short-term trade for me. I see $MSFT as a long-term compounder, and the recent numbers pushed me from “watchlist” to “buy.”

I bought @ $398. Based on a discounted cash flow estimate I looked at, fair value was around $558, implying roughly 40% upside to fair value. I never treat DCF output as precise, but I do pay attention when a high-quality company looks undervalued on more than one measure.

That is the kind of setup I like: not just “AI narrative,” but actual earnings growth, high margins, strong returns on equity, and a balance sheet that gives the company room to keep investing.

The business case is still the same for me. Microsoft owns distribution across several layers of enterprise software. If AI keeps moving into normal enterprise workflows, Microsoft already has the customer relationships, the billing layer, and the products where AI features can be attached.

I do not need every AI product they launch to be a standalone winner. If AI makes Office, Azure, GitHub, and security more valuable, the upside can show up across several existing revenue lines.

Ok, so what’s the catch? Valuation. This is not a deep value stock. If growth slows, or if AI capex does not convert into enough revenue, the multiple can compress.

Another risk is margin pressure. Microsoft may need to keep spending heavily on data centers, GPUs, and AI infrastructure. If that spending grows faster than monetization, the market could reassess the stock.

Still, for my portfolio, I want $MSFT to be a satellite holding rather than something I try to time perfectly. The current valuation looks reasonable to me given the quality of the business, the forecast growth, the margins, and the financial strength.

Added more shares of Sivers Semiconductors today at $7.38.

My current average cost is now $7.26.

This is still a small position for me, less than 1% of my portfolio. I’m treating it as a high-risk / high-reward exposure to CPO, optical I/O, and AI data-center networking before the theme is fully priced in.

My thesis is simple:

$SIVE sits in a potentially important part of the AI photonics supply chain: CW laser arrays for CPO / optical I/O. The company already has public relationships with Ayar Labs, Jabil, and GlobalFoundries, which matters because those platforms could become relevant as AI networking shifts from electrical interconnects toward optical.

The bull case is that Sivers becomes both:

- A bottleneck, if laser supply becomes constrained as CPO ramps.
- A chokepoint, if early designs are built around Sivers’ laser technology and are hard to swap out.

The company still needs to prove production orders, volume revenue, margins, and cash generation. Partnerships and reference designs are not enough by themselves. I’m flagging this as HIGH-RISK.

But I like the asymmetric setup. I have done something similar before with $RKLB, which started as a small speculative position and grew to almost 9% of my portfolio after a +900% gain.

Not saying $SIVE will do the same. Different company, different risk profile, different market. But I like small, early positions in sectors where I think the market may be underpricing future adoption.

I added to my $NFLX position today at $85.50.

This is still a relatively small long-term position for me. My average cost is now around $89.

The order had been sitting open for a couple of days and filled shortly after the market opened. In hindsight, I probably could have been more patient before placing it. Still, I’m comfortable adding here given the long-term view.

P.S: Just a reminder that order timing matters.

Hi folks,

I recently found this subreddit and have been enjoying the quality of the discussions here. I’d like to get some feedback on my current portfolio.

For context, I’m 26 years old. I have a long investment horizon, so I’m comfortable with some volatility, but I also want to be disciplined about concentration risk.

I’m not sharing actual values, only portfolio exposure and total unrealized gain/loss per position.

Ticker	Company / Fund	Portfolio Exposure	Total Unrealized Gain/Loss
IBM	International Business Machines Corporation	55.48%	+40.06%
IWDA.AS	iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD Acc	28.47%	+22.67%
RKLB	Rocket Lab Corporation	9.47%	+985.43%
SECO.DE	iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF USD Acc	2.95%	+40.98%
RENE.LS	REN - Redes Energéticas Nacionais, SGPS, S.A.	1.49%	+62.44%
NFLX	Netflix, Inc.	0.62%	-2.32%
DUOL	Duolingo, Inc.	0.57%	-64.95%
CBRS	Cerebras Systems Inc.	0.44%	-18.51%
FMG.F	First Mining Gold Corp.	0.32%	-30.80%
PPFD.SG	iShares Physical Silver ETC	0.19%	-20.03%

My main concern is concentration risk.

IBM is currently more than half of the portfolio. IWDA is my main diversified ETF position, but it is still much smaller than IBM. RKLB has grown into a meaningful position because of performance rather than because I intentionally allocated close to 10% to it.

The rest are small satellite positions. Some of them may be too small to matter and may only be adding complexity.

Would appreciate honest feedback from the community. Thanks!