u/owngoalmerchant

I was reading an investor briefing that took a really interesting approach to Chinese internet stocks. The assumption that was accepted was that the valuation is cheap for these names. They got it out of the way right out of the gate and then focused their survey on whether cheapness alone was enough to draw a rotation back into Chinese tech.  

That’s a more-interesting question. There is no question that the Chinese tech names are cheap. The reasons for that are complicated - geopolitical tensions, a slowing Chinese consumer, etc. But when you see how bad it has become for the $KWEB, we start to see this as a trading opportunity. The narrative is simple - margins on AI cloud growth should show up in AliBaba eventually, Tencent is a high quality compounder caught up lying in wait for AI monetization, JD is winning food delivery. That’s almost a quarter of the $KWEB and we haven’t even talked about Baidu with their chipmaking element. Now you are totally at a quarter of the ETF. 

https://preview.redd.it/pd1077runwah1.png?width=1505&format=png&auto=webp&s=74f49ad8e1ec7a709edb776d0f6a7093c061c25a

We can see how poorly $BABA, $TCEHY, and $JD have performed in the last year, but the whole basket is doing even worse. If their biggest names start to turn around, things can get interesting. The issue I always have is that I can’t find the confidence to simply pick my winner in China. I can’t get all the information or figure out what is and is not being supported by the state.

Which is where recovery in the $KWEB as a whole interests me. I come back to it often because I see the opportunity in the basket. This thing is going to pick itself up from this mat eventually - even if I can’t call this a bottom, I can definitely wait this one out with LEAPS, so I went out as far as possible on the options chain to get an idea of what the going rate is after this drop-off. Pricing is all over the place, so when I circle back to this on Monday, I’ll be able to see if I can snipe value. But we can, generally, see there is a breakeven somewhere around $28 for the cheapest ITM calls. 

https://preview.redd.it/kvn6m2iwnwah1.png?width=659&format=png&auto=webp&s=7499171528701b086e1615407f86489d7415ff1e

When you come back to the chart, we see why. Can this yellow gap fill up and then some over the next 568 days? It just so happens to be an established support level and a bit north of the short-term moving average (orange line). We are a long way from being able to say momentum has turned around with that long-term moving average still a bit away (teal line).

https://preview.redd.it/fc72f5bxnwah1.png?width=1519&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f99ee048db0e237171bbaad55019a4c06146d9

So the trade is in front of me, I’ll just need to see how things shake out over the weekend and early next week before I pull the trigger on some of the $20 calls. This one is very straight-forward, just need to be comfortable with the economic outlook for China over the next two years. At least having this framework gives me an idea of a timeline for the trade and I can start seeking some more specific answers. We'll see.

$ROST

https://preview.redd.it/ujpjro739bah1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=e78b77649479d731270a08b4469f95f1ef1b377a

Quite a drop off over the past few days and it particularly caught my attention because the only driver I could see was an analyst downgrade. I drew that uptrend channel (blue) based off of the two-year chart and you can see that the drop off has taken out the channel, the short-term moving average (orange line), and this level around $210. By doing so, it entered that green gap that was never filled from that March gap up that occurred off of the earnings report and went all the way down to the long-term moving average (teal line).

A lot of technicians believe that a good time to buy is when a ticker kisses a rising long-term moving average. The implication is that the long-term price trend blocks out the noise and represents a certain degree of discovered price. Names should rest their quick drops reliably on this line, especially. As such, that green gap is probably not going to be challenged and should serve as a mattress for this fall. It might sink a little further, but I wouldn’t worry until it broke and stayed below $200. Being that far off of both moving averages for a prolonged period of time and filling both gaps could mean a change in momentum - the Death Cross.

This is not a name I am looking for parabolic moves in - slow and steady. They do not pay a dividend of note given their earnings, but that just means they are cash-protected during an economic downturn - which ironically would be good for their overall business. They have virtually no e-commerce presence and focus on the treasure hunt, so you’re not going to see capex or investments other than into the bread-and-butter. I waited my three days - it is time to nibble. My guess would be that it recovers around here and starts to fill that yellow gap while re-entering the long-term uptrend channel. We’ll see.

$KTOS

As much as I wanted to make an earnings play on $AVAV, I decided to go in a slightly different direction after reading a pretty solid report on $KTOS last week. The long-term thesis along with the short-term price targets make it the same kind of play as $AVAV - commentary that implies an increase in demand within this industry is really all it will take for quick and sudden moves. We know it. We’ve seen it. We can expect it to continue happening. Here’s how the two of them dance together with $AVAV the main chart and $KTOS as the blue comparative line:

https://preview.redd.it/53exiu369bah1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a4315c6cd5f03a4eab49514da697e232e3b6ff2

My trade around $KTOS is pretty much based around this correlation to $AVAV. With $AVAV reporting after the bell, I was hoping they would shift the narrative by focusing on the demand of increased defense budgets. If that narrative is strong enough, it should make this a short-term bottoming-out. It will start to close this gap $KTOS in relative performance - but $KTOS is likely to rise as well as they seem to trade as a pair.

That’s it - that’s the play. With $AVAV goes $KTOS.

https://preview.redd.it/k2v3mjyp9bah1.png?width=1439&format=png&auto=webp&s=beb95803c56c0e332728f7ca7f5333a46b928504

After coming down from insane valuations earlier this year, $KTOS has completed the round-trip when we look at the long-term chart. The blue uptrend is established from the two-year chart, off of the lows from Liberation Day. But it is likely too far to matter right now. 

What matters now are these three gaps - the yellow represents a short-term move that could come off the back of the $AVAV earnings. Basically, $AVAV pulls them both up off of the mat. But that isn’t the only thing I am banking on - do you see that spike in volume on Friday? It happened in the last five minutes of the trading week - 300k shares were sold at 3:50pm but here is the key - there was a buyer there (or buyers) and the price ended up stabilizing. The volume also says that it may be bottoming out.

So then we’ve got the purple gap, where there will be pricing pressure between the established level around $53 in addition to the downtrend line (dashed). All of that also comes together with the short-term moving average (orange line); the gap between the short-term and long-term moving average (teal line) is basically that last gap in green.

This presents a technical play that is very short-term in nature - I bought $45 calls that expire a few weeks after the August earnings call and give me a breakeven price of around $51. I’m highly likely to sell well before we get there based on these gaps. I have shared here that I tend to buy in sets of 3 and I will let a third of the calls go as each of the gaps is filled. That works out to being somewhere between $52 and $53, somewhere between $57 and $61, and riding any last wave of excitement to exit after that $66 level. 

It would have to all happen in a short period of time given the , but I’m banking on the pull of the moving averages along with the momentum from $AVAV. Incredibly small position, really just a gamble on the technicals and momentum. We’ll see.

$LHX

I ended up going down a weird rabbithole as I was prepping for the $AVAV earnings. One of my go-to moves is to look into suppliers. If the suppliers are telling me they are seeing an increase in demand, then maybe their customers are seeing an increase in demand as well. That’s the relationship between $AVAV and $AMPX that I wanted to capitalize on. Amprius ($AMPX) supplies high-energy-density lithium batteries to $AVAV. Their batteries allow AeroVironment’s drones to fly longer with more payload.

I’m not necessarily interested in $AMPX as an investment story, but I am interested in listening to their story. I want to know if Amprius is ramping up manufacturing to meet increased demand - that’s the read-through that previews $AVAV’s commentary. Sure enough, Amprius is contracting with global manufacturers to meet increased demand. 

By the same logic that I could be confident in $AVAV’s numbers through $AMPX’s, it just so happens that another one of Amprius’ largest customers is $LHX, a name I am growing a position in.

(side note - I should probably look more into $AMPX?)

https://preview.redd.it/fpnthb7t9bah1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ffad516e4a1030c2b7a1e1dccdd5b57affbf5e1

We can see that the name has taken a YTD round-trip. The short-term moving average is the new downtrend line and we’ve already passed our Death Cross and fallen out of the uptrend channel (blue). I’m going to be paying attention to this yellow gap. If it fills nicely headed into the summer, we should have an indication that this downtrend is reversing if it can hold above $300. That should be enough time for the long-term moving average (teal line) to come down and settle in a little bit. It won’t take much for the short-term to flatten if the prices hold and then we can be on the lookout for a Golden Cross. 

Earnings are at the end of July. I’ll probably nibble a little bit tomorrow around these levels and take a larger bite after I am more confident the reversal has taken place. We’ll see, but no move quite yet today.

The dot plot is one of the tools that the Fed has used to communicate the rate-path views for each of the governors. It has been in use for a little more than a decade and each governor simply places a dot to plot out their projections and has been credited with improved transparency into the central bank’s overall thinking.

New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, however, has been critical of this practice, arguing that it can potentially lock the Fed into rate-paths without regard to economic data. In the simplest terms, he believes forward guidance can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which the Fed should avoid. It’s an interesting point of view but a relatively unserious one, in my opinion, because we would hope these governors are nimble and flexible to be the data-driven policymakers they claim to be and not get locked into anything at any time. 

https://preview.redd.it/zlfoicw95x7h1.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=46ae3dacc5a02008ba8f069e5107a83d2e4ff601

Today’s plot communicated a few things: 

1. It looks like Warsh is sticking to it - there are 19 governors on the committee but only 18 dots on the plot. Since there have been no other changes and given Warsh’s previous criticism, we can infer that he did not ploticipate. 
2. Nine of the 18 governors who did plot a dot are forecasting a rate hike before the end of this year. 
3. Eight of the 18 governors who dotted on the plot are projecting rates to be higher at the end of next year.
4. In the longer run, 14 of the 18 governors who plotted a dot believe rates will be under current levels.

In addition to not plotting a dot, Warsh’s statement altered the language overall. CNBC posted this image of text that was removed from the April statement in red with a strikethrough, new language is red with an underline, and black text is in both statements.

https://preview.redd.it/o70dd4nb5x7h1.jpg?width=1910&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acb21392b6d96b23c5d6b01463f5c87814489e94

Conspiracy theorists and political hacks have jumped on to these two Warsh actions and are claiming this new Fed will be less transparent accordingly. He isn’t giving his projections! He is communicating with fewer words! You will undoubtedly hear this criticism in the noise that has become our media. That’s going to be really hard to ignore but what matters to me are the rates themselves.

The longer-term range that group of 14 governors is projecting is somewhere between 2.8 and 3.3, roughly. The significance of that is hard to say other than to put into the context of the last few years. We haven’t really seen rates around here for a significant amount of time - we briefly were here on the way up with rates post-COVID and comparing now to when rates were in this range isn’t fair because that was a) short-lived and b) in the midst of a bear market in 2022. Given that dot plot, though, it looks like we have entered that higher for longer time frame that Powell spoke about at Jackson Hole in 2023.

https://preview.redd.it/122n4r3g5x7h1.png?width=868&format=png&auto=webp&s=73c5b257537a08b35d395cc03ef49e6abef72f1e

https://preview.redd.it/u33yusrj5x7h1.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8d226a8e46efbc6b9f0b22de6a2e660a7c63d70

The markets didn’t like any of it, sharply turning intra-day. The Dow ended down 500 points despite hitting a 52-week high earlier in the day. I think I counted a handful of names that ended in the green for the DJIA and the S&P’s winners were clustered to some hardware names. When you look at the bubble chart, the biggest bubbles are the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500. The biggest bubbles are the Mag 7 and every single one of them was negative today, most of them down more than 2.5%.

I’m not sure if it is the reality of the rate situation that spooked investors into a late-day selloff or if it was something else. What struck me was that the 14 most dovish governors have us going to a range between 2.8 and 3.3 when the President wants this:

https://preview.redd.it/66k7gjyi5x7h1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8360a9eb5e173238f3600ca7a2f6e78ba770e45

If you’re wondering about the independence of the Fed, we will watch this story unfold over the next few years. Warsh didn’t plot his dot, so the President can’t attack him for something he didn’t do. But I think this will end up being the most intriguing plot of them all - whether Warsh can steer these dots in the direction the President would like for them to go - and it is still quite a bit of a ways.

$VEEV Research

Veeva held their Annual Shareholder Meeting today a few weeks after conducting their quarterly earnings report. The release of today’s Annual Report and Proxy Statement gave me some things to think about. 

In going through the 10-K, a really specific line struck me: “Revenues associated with our R&D and Quality Solutions are expected to increase as a percentage of both subscription revenues and total revenues in the future” (pg. 40). What management is saying here is that the business is shifting from being a “CRM for pharma” into something else as a platform in health care. We’ve known about this shift for a while because it started a few years ago. They’ve become heavily involved in clinical trials, quality, safety, regulations, and data to become a drug development software stack. 

Price action in the name would indicate investors currently view it more like a software - the CRM that it used to be to help with pharma-specific workflows and content distribution. They relied on Salesforce to build this software for them but are ending that relationship by 2029 as customers, the biggest pharmaceutical names in the world, are migrated on to Veeva’s native platform throughout 2026. Over 125 customers are operating live in that space.

I found this to be really important because if Veeva is more of an R&D software company, I can understand the growth potential. There is always margin expansion in software and they aren’t relying on CRM for their growth anymore if their involvement with R&D continues. The R&D and Quality segments represented 55% of revenue and generated $247 million of the $400 million increase in subscription revenue. Subscription revenue grew 17%, outpacing total revenue growth; this suggests customers are adopting more products instead of paying more for the same ones over time.

https://preview.redd.it/1n1c7d0pjx7h1.png?width=1814&format=png&auto=webp&s=38cb8d7837af1923de0d0d8e11a120b504f238be

What does the growth look like in those other products? That means the fastest-growing part of the company is already larger than the company’s legacy business (CRM), which matters because clinical trials, quality systems, regulatory software, and drug development are far more sticky than salesforce automation. There were some significant statistics on page 36: 2,000 clinical trials, 17,000 active users, quadrupling usage of their product that removes risk to study timelines, and adoption from all of the top 20 biopharma companies. 

As the company wades in these waters of R&D, it unlocks a TAM that is much larger than CRM software. When a  clinical trial messes up, it can delay a billion-dollar product. CRM migration is just annoying and maybe a CTO gets fired. Product delays? Multiple heads shall roll. The contracts will be longer in the R&D space and it looks like they are succeeding based on those numbers. The last quarterly report showed another something:

https://preview.redd.it/jo8amkf2kx7h1.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=7427f8546392f9a67f85f524f1294530599a3ecd

Subscription revenue was up 19% and total revenue was up 17%. Operating income was up 34% and net cash was up 27%. That tells me revenue growth is pretty healthy and profits are accelerating faster than revenue, which is what I want to see when a company is growing and margins are expanding.

A very natural next question to ask ourselves is whether management can pull off and execute this platformization. They want to make it to $6 billion in revenue by 2030.

https://preview.redd.it/p3t6wjqckx7h1.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8f170abab15e89566c69c586585cc482205dbe6

The other part of today's meeting was the release of Proxy Statements that outlined the Board of Directors and their qualifications to lead a company like this. This is a complicated business that requires software expertise along with an understanding of medical research while also navigating the complexities of multinational pharmaceutical business regulations. Going through their resumes was the kind of stuff I'd want to see - involvement and success with related companies. I couldn't help but notice that many of them worked for companies that were acquired at some point by a larger company.

https://preview.redd.it/j8akgsdtkx7h1.png?width=929&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff79f1b1592f0ac9c89f1ba1495bbc3035386c48

If you've made it this far and read all of this, I am so sorry to tell you that I don't have a trade at the end of all of this for you. Because, here's the thing, this thing is trading at basically five-year lows:

https://preview.redd.it/6xecrb3hlx7h1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf02f7d2f3b892ff16bb1b19c4f8b16db17f93a3

Far below the moving averages and in a well-established downtrend since November, we don't need to rush into anything at all while the market decides if it hates software or not. We can wait and see and maybe if it makes a move toward the $170s, we will know that a reversal is in order. Since the earnings call was just a few weeks ago, there is time for me to keep watching before they get a chance to shift the narrative.

One thing that I am fascinated by is that this name is not in the $IGV with other software names. It is in the $XLV with other health care names, so any defensive rotation can help give this name some ballast. As we fear an AI pop, this name is stuck somewhere in the middle between software and healthcare. On an individual basis, it is being treated like software. As a teeny tiny part of the Health Care sector, it may get enough inflows and counter-conversation when things get even weirder than they are now.

Given the targets going out all the way to 2030, I need to think about how I'd structure any play. Long shares is easy given what I think is a protected moat, but I'll take a look at the options chain to see if something interesting pops up in the LEAPS. They must be so cheap right now but, like I said, I'm in no rush.

Happy Monday! Hope your week has started out well. Let’s look at some charts.

$BABA

https://preview.redd.it/p662cd5qm56h1.png?width=2846&format=png&auto=webp&s=f43c6865a5319845f82fa4b6853a7f69b87db5ff

I’m watching whether it has any intention of returning to that long-term uptrend (blue) that I picked up off the two-year chart. You can see that it previously got over its skis around the $133 level in September but made its way back. Then it fell sort of to this level when war broke out, tried to gather itself but then fell all the way under.

I’m looking for a general mean reversion while also noticing that it has basically found a level that usually indicates a bottoming. I feel like I always miss this one when it rises and I couldn’t figure out today what I wanted to do. After looking at it a bit more, if we can find a breakeven between $133ish and where it was pre-war, a level around $155ish, we might be okay.

The binary nature of war on / war off does help with the play but there’s also the general nature of whether things are okay with this company and what they’re spending. The AI infrastructure money seems to be concerning to investors on top of the low margins of the instant retail war they are in. Those are narrative issues that also continue to give me some pause, but if I want to increase international exposure and am willing to take on China risk, this is looking quite ripe right here. We'll see.

I still have things to decide. Scale into shares and hang on for the long-term? Play a catch-up or more short-term tactical trade as it recovers? The January 15 2027 $115c were coming in at $19.20, so the break even would be $135ish. I did not make the move, but will sleep on it because the assumption is a narrative shift happens in the next seven months. That may or may not be the case, even if all I’m looking for is a 12% rise for breakeven. Given how violently this moves, we could be there going into either of the two remaining earnings reports. 

I’m just not sure yet. Story of my life.

$SAP

https://preview.redd.it/61xd19zrm56h1.png?width=2846&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1e51dab6ff3d75843d1fa271902755aa17a5b47

An old dog enterprise software name that has been beaten up in the AvS debate. The purple box represents the price range of the long-term moving average (teal line) and the yellow box represents the price range of the short-term moving average (orange line). We can see that the share price has been under the current long-term SMA since the end of January for a vast majority of this timeframe. That means it will continue to go lower. The current short-term moving average (orange line) sits at the bottom of range and should rise with any material day above $175ish. But it won’t move quickly - you can see how long this name has toiled in these lower $170s. 

It is just now starting to show life as price is starting to get pressure along with the downtrend line that was drawn from the two-year chart. As the price comes up against a long-standing pivot line in the mid-$190s (I drew it at $195ish on here) and gets squeezed by that downtrend, it should move quickly. It might squeeze down, as it did a few days ago; there wasn’t enough pressure to push past and out of that downtrend. Maybe if the short-term moving average had the opposite pull or if there was buying momentum. But there wasn’t, so it got pushed down. I’m thinking that will be tested again, probably in the upper $180s as that downtrend moves through time. Upward price movement would really help the short-term moving average pop up.

You can see what we’re trying to time here - the Golden Cross that looks back to tell us momentum has shifted toward bullishness. I think moving up toward the pivot level is more likely than being dragged down to the short-term moving average, which is more likely to be a floor now than a ceiling (like it was before mid-May). 

With the long-standing nature of this name along with what I believe to be an overreaction in stock pricing, especially when you consider cloud migration and upselling of AI features, I started to go ahead and scale in. You may be noticing a theme - I have been actively spending time on international names. This is one I’m comfortable moving on while because P/E numbers are in the low 20s and forward PEG at 1.6. So we have decent valuation, a chart that is interesting if it can regain the uptrend channel (blue), and a decent narrative if this has been a bit irrational - again, you can’t vibe code what these guys do, regardless of how powerful Claude becomes. I moved in with a .3u buy and plan to scale in more over the next few months, likely as it kisses that long-term average on a rise or again if it stays in this yellow range for longer. We'll see.

$CLSK

https://preview.redd.it/lg4mhzptm56h1.png?width=2846&format=png&auto=webp&s=09335e32d4fa5c55aefefabf87c9809f75050463

Here’s a weird one for you, as I’ve been sniffing around Bitcoin miners that are talking about the transition to AI/HPC but haven’t had their move yet. Most of them have indeed had their moves ($HUT, $CORZ, $IREN, $RIOT) but we see one here that has yet to do so. The narrative is risky, so I would make sure any trade is understood to be speculative and binary based on the announcement of a deal with a hyperscaler. 

Considering they should have the power and compute hardware already worked out, that transition should not take too long, so ITM LEAPS are the play I went with. I decided to scale into them late last week when it re-entered the long-term uptrend channel (blue) and gapped down within the newer-but-very-strong short-term uptrend channel (purple). It bounced off of a reliable pivot level at $14.25ish and came right back into the meat of that purple channel, albeit at the bottom of it and continuing recovery today.

The Golden Cross just happened, but there are plenty of headwinds. They need to announce one of those deals to get the momentum needed to push ahead. The continued crypto winter is not helping, but it is driving the need to innovate and shift away from mining for an asset that isn’t worth the cost to mine. They also have a healthy Bitcoin balance on their sheets but I’m not smart enough to do financial analysis on something this speculative. We’ll keep an eye on it while being very honest about the momentum and about what we're doing here, playing the rise to the low-$20s. I'm the type to exit and not find out the hard way if that ends up being a double-top, but I'll scale in and out along the way. Should be fun. We'll see.

I have been circling around a theme that I shared in a comment in one of TJ’s posts. This general theme is that old industrial dogs that know how to make things are being re-rated because the things they make can be repurposed into things that are currently in demand. I don’t want to complicate it beyond that. As these companies get re-rated, their stocks are jumping.

Allient ($ALNT) is a small company that makes a very small part - a servo motor. These are little tiny motors that go into little tiny drives that are a part of little tiny systems that are a part of machines that make things. They aren't a drone company. They aren't a semiconductor equipment company. They aren't a robotics company. They aren't a data center company. They make systems that are a part of all that stuff.

https://preview.redd.it/6v803bt2jy4h1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=568cccb750d3ebddd7a41f354b27a0c23458c103

https://preview.redd.it/p2zfrx47jy4h1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=aae32cee43396ee252cc9bc6d297a7f1bdc990b7

The blue uptrend channel is from an established two-year uptrend. There has been a lot more volume because they just did an investor day laying out their businesses, including the stuff I just listed above. A JP Morgan analyst upgrade came with it. So for a small company, a little bit of juice can create a move like this. That move really has just been a gap fill (yellow box) after getting down to the short-term moving average (orange line), which also usually is in the middle of the channel but has now become a base.

https://preview.redd.it/t5ec9vv0iy4h1.png?width=1607&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0086a611d548b0b8910bb6f28ff78c664a26532

It won’t be for long. It currently is calculating up to that 3/20 date but in a few days, it will start from the 4/9 date, which is above where the short-term SMA is now. That means it is going to start going up because there are more days above the line, which I drew in at the SMA at $68ish. I think that means momentum continues but, at a minimum, it will return to the middle of the channel.

https://preview.redd.it/r6v6isdviy4h1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5e8dc889a2f38e65397738a8d838d08744cfc47

I really am not sure what the play is here other than putting it on my own radar. I might take a small position in case it goes parabolic like $STM did on a similar thesis. The calls that go as far out as possible barely have any volume and the October ones that are nearest the next earnings report in August are the next ones to pique my interest. They are surprisingly expensive but that could just be a product of this run.

$PANW

https://preview.redd.it/ozjrpeuwpl4h1.png?width=2832&format=png&auto=webp&s=09b1af0c57fbd0738a9e7a336de323485c371771

Interesting set up going into earnings this week. It reclaimed an ultra long-term uptrend channel and has filled some notable gaps during this run. Despite this accelerated rise, it just is really back on track when you really zoom out.

This is the definition of a catch-up trade. I was looking to trim but I think I'll be okay to wait through earnings to see if it pops even more as we go from catch up to rotate into. There could be more outsized gains .. or not. As much as I should keep greed in check, I think it is okay to see how this plays out.

$STM

https://preview.redd.it/z32rjvveql4h1.png?width=2264&format=png&auto=webp&s=fce81649c1502f88b8c691bb2baa39e4bae4ccf8

Caught a tip on this one from a software guy. Look at the run! They are not known for AI work, moreso industrial and robotics type of chips. But there is an AI and space pivot in the works. Again, the pattern is nothing more than a return to a long-term trend after some gaps have filled.

If it re-rates, this rise won't matter in the grand scheme of things. Taking a flyer and a placeholder position for now just to watch and learn in the space.

Made some trades. Let’s talk about them but with less charts.

$LLY

I’ve shared on here that this is one of the ones that got away. I completely missed the GLP move and as much as I can cry about it, it’s more important to get it right than be right. This obesity drug is transformative for health care and is likely to continue to be huge for them. This week, they’ve committed to some vaccine purchases and expand their portfolio. In short, they’re just really good at what they do and I want to be a part of it. But at these prices? Gotta scale in.

https://preview.redd.it/j0fpog3a2y3h1.png?width=1380&format=png&auto=webp&s=1022e32f9f2936e7f657835a20385101b22a098f

I went out to the 5-year (blue) and 2-year (yellow) charts to see the broader uptrend channels and the purple one is the more recent one from this amazing month of recovery. I’m inclined to believe the more-recent upward trend channel (yellow) will be the one that will ultimately hold, so I’m not expecting a lot of upside here to chase. 

But then you might notice something way down there at $950. The short-term SMA (orange line) is about to freaking move in six weeks. That’s when all these prices under $950 will be turned away and it will curl up very quickly, likely passing over the longer-term moving average (teal line) that will likely stay steady where it is. If you’ve been reading my posts, you know that I’m trying to find the Golden Cross before it happens. Here you go, with a .3u entry. 

$APH

I have been sharing about this in everything except for a post. This is one of those compounders and acquirers that is best of breed but not exciting for people to be talking about them. If this market is teaching us anything, it is that chokepoints can really end up being winners. It has been chips and memory and power and copper and rare earth minerals and on and on and on. Well these guys make something really specific - connectors. The kind that put systems and sensors and servers and hardware together so signals and data and power can go from one place to another. Like how boring, my wife will hate it at first.

https://preview.redd.it/qu3j70wc2y3h1.png?width=1380&format=png&auto=webp&s=59ad440226d53c7d0d1a75cf80e1a5b486907430

We’re looking at a two-year chart and it isn’t too hard to see why, even with this recent rise, we are okay with making the buy. Buying into strength is not a bad thing. That long-term uptrend channel in blue is still well within the area this one is trading in. We get interested, though, because it might be attempting a return to those uncharted waters of the green and yellow channels that are more aggressive, but were well-attended through the first quarter of this year.

And then, once again, we see a short-term moving average (orange line) that is just barely underneath the long-term moving average (teal line). You bet this jump will impact it and if it can hold and stabilize here (it doesn’t need to keep jumping, it can even digest and give back down to $140), the Golden Cross is imminent with this one as well. I’m experimenting with this one, as I really think it should be worth $175 and would have been well on its way there if there weren’t some sort of global disruption that happened in March. This is just a placeholder trade that I’m putting in place as I get to know it.

$RDDT

I think I just want to join the party. It might be because I’m constantly slammed by ads that clearly show this company is selling stuff or if the story just tells me that it is time, but the chart definitely did. Let’s take a look:

https://preview.redd.it/ehv8q1uf2y3h1.png?width=1380&format=png&auto=webp&s=1509c668de0b86e717e8d48f7b4a1e340ea7d17c

This is just the one-year chart with an uptrend from the two-year chart. This is much less about those channels as much as it is about these gaps. We can see that the gap up from the summer eventually came back to reality earlier this year (yellow box). In doing so, it has created a new gap, one that is intriguingly looking at us to be filled (green box). We’re seeing a potential for a price pressure here as it re-enters this longer-term trend channel (which I should note, is not a particularly strong channel). The long-term moving average (teal line), downtrend (dotted line), and this pivot point around $170 represent what should be a challenge and potential for noise within this channel.

Look at it - there’s not much there to test it. I didn’t overthink it - like I said, I want to join the party - so I picked up some ITM LEAPS with a $215 breakeven. They weren’t cheap because of this run, but if this green gap is being filled, I’ll be able to move on from these well before expiration. A push through this gap would do wonders for the short-term moving average (orange line), and you know the story by now with that.

$P

I jumped on it quickly after today’s drop. With memory being such a provocative conversation nowadays, an AFA vendor should be able to gain traction in this market. AFAs (all-flash arrays) are storage systems that are made out of SSDs, the secondary storage after the HBAM that AI needs. These SSDs are another layer of memory before the HDDs, which are the slowest. 

You don’t want to use HDDs for memory that you want to retrieve quickly - for example, when you’re talking to an AI agent, you don’t want it to run to the warehouse to fetch information every time you have a question. You’d much rather have it run to the pantry to get your answer. The warehouse is the HDD and the pantry is the SSD. HDDs are made by companies like Seagate and Western Digital. SSDs are made by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

https://preview.redd.it/dahw63ah2y3h1.png?width=1380&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ea10c9756a85f279a3f34a35d443372ed9395ca

As bad as today was, it wasn’t that bad. It is still firmly in the long-term channel (blue) established by the five-year chart, but it did slip out of the shorter-term channel from the two-year chart (yellow). We see a series of gap-fills that make this name very compelling. The gap-up from September wasn’t resolved until March (green box) and then we had some quickies in May, one through the 70s (red box) and another that got to the 90s (black box) that resolved with this drop.

We’re also seeing a convergence of the moving averages right around this pivot point that it bounced down to today. I’m hoping, given today’s entry, that this is the end of the slide but I need to be comfortable that it may continue further down into this channel given the moving average is at $70 and they tend to have gravitational pull. If the price stabilizes - again, we don’t have to see a quick recovery, just a stabilization - than the short-term moving average (orange line) will indeed cross through the long-term moving average (teal line) in three to four weeks. That all could combine to enough momentum to stay afloat. We’ll see, but I’m pretty sure this thing is going to be just fine. 

The analysts will have their say and that will impact movement in the next few days, but I’m okay putting my stake in and seeing what happens from here. I saw a particularly cheap LEAPS contract that had corrected in price more than others, so I picked some that should break even in the low $80s. My hope would be to trim on an approach back to the $90s during this timeframe. We’ll see.

Chartless Whispers
Just a brain dump:

• Boy, am I bummed I didn’t follow my own technical analysis on $AVAV. But them’s the breaks! And it’s ok. When I was doing my portfolio rebalance, I was particularly looking to capture a theme of increased defense spending. I have that relatively well-stacked with $BA, $AXON, $LHX, $RKLB, $PLTR, and $HON. It’s ok to move on and just watch rather than participate. I tend to hesitate on things I don’t understand and I don’t really understand what’s going on with drones. I understand engines and sensors, software and technology, vision and platforms .. but maybe I just don’t get what the deal is with drones. And the cruel, hilarious irony of it all is that $AXON is one of the leaders in my portfolio today. Why? Because of some drone partnership. I see you, Universe, thanks for keeping me humble. 
• From 2013 until the pandemic, $DLTR reliably stayed in an uptrend channel. Then it went kablamo at the end of 2021, stayed above that channel for all of 2022 and most of 2023 before being cut in half in 2024. It clawed its way back and meaningfully returned to that long-term channel in the first half of this year before collapsing again in March - today’s earnings-based gap up is just a return to the channel .. the LOOOOOOOOOOONG-term channel. It’s leading my portfolio today.
• If $PLTR finally figuring it out?
• I wrote yesterday that $CAT is something we can be patient with until it figures out which channel it wants to live in. Today’s giveback helps us a little - I want to see if closer to $870. That would be the upper part of a channel and a much better purchase - it’s only a few percent away and it would be nice to go deeper down, but I just don’t think it will happen. Although .. here we are today and it is near the bottom of my list.

A little bit of a follow-up from my Star Trek Appreciation Post as I chart the various names that were in there. The journey continues - let’s get into it.

$CEG

Let’s start with the long-term chart so you can see the view from afar. The purpose of starting so far out is to see how strong of an uptrend channel (blue) this has been in:

https://preview.redd.it/x8q5bftohr3h1.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=85f712c4a07bdacbf9d335e380aaa3f6468e726f

Now we look at the last six months. The only thing we are adding is the dotted line that represents the downtrend from more-recent highs of Fall 2025:

https://preview.redd.it/exubz0kshr3h1.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=66414b4045fe2b3d1ef6f82c5c4da273d0a5fe5d

We’re right in the middle of that channel along with the short-term moving average (orange line). The long-term moving average (teal line) is converging with that downtrend, giving us a general idea of a ceiling in a short-term consolidation phase. The pivot line right around there at $330 gives us an idea on the next potential step up, but we have to get through this $300ish one first. 

That’s where the short-term moving average can help. We’ve dipped below it today, but in about three weeks it will start to turn up because the impact of the early April prices will be removed. As such, the weighting of the rise in May goes up and since those prices are higher than where it is now, we can expect the orange line to rise. We can see that the name correlates pretty strongly to this average, but that rise comes in conjunction with that long-term moving average on the decline. That calculation is still factoring in those prices at the end of 2025 and we can expect a dip in a few weeks. The convergence of a rising short-term moving average with a declining long-term moving average is the main ingredient for that backward-looking indicator I always am looking for, the Golden Cross. You have to be ahead of it to take advantage of it. 

So I bought .3u worth of shares today in anticipation of this channel continuing, leaving space in the trade in case the shares fall to that $269ish level, so I’ll put a little note to buy again if we dip there because it would effectively be at the bottom of the channel. That would be another .3u buy and then I’ll just wait it out. Conversely, if my intuition is right, I’ll pick up the rest of the trade a bit more slowly and watch as it tests $330 and $360 again with potentially fast moves as pressure gets built when the downward trendline comes up to $300ish, if the stock is also around those prices. I’m banking on that rising short-term moving average dragging the name back up slowly over time right to that convergence to create that pressure pop up, where it will test $330ish and, potentially, break this downtrend line to indicate a full bullish reversal back to those highs. 

Regardless of the technical side of things, the forward P/E is closer to 26 right now for a name that has been closer to 40 over the last five years. The current PEG ratio is somewhere around 1.2, so it is still not objectively cheap but it is cheaper than it has been compared to itself. We’ll see.

$PLTR

Let’s start with the long-term chart so you can see the view from afar. The purpose of starting so far out is to see how strong of an uptrend channel (blue) this has been in:

https://preview.redd.it/g85u9anzhr3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a157f280328508df30681e0640c1d08e7ccebb7

Now we look at the last six months. The only thing we are adding is the dotted line that represents the downtrend from more-recent highs of Fall 2025:

https://preview.redd.it/1gebci61ir3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3eb3bb5ffddfe2f39e3bbc37580dfc2c77fb5234

This is a correction and re-valuation. I’ve been saying for a while that it was stupidly valued but I am increasingly starting to see this as another “national security” play like $INTC ended up being. Valuations don’t make sense there, either, but we have to accept the market and reality we are in. I may be being stubborn here, but it has slipped significantly below the short-term moving average this month along with this downtrend line. 

We can see that we have slipped the long-term uptrend channel this month. The short-term moving average (orange line) has conveniently served as a ceiling several times along the way, almost capping the price through March and early April. We are in for a pricing pressure moment as the 50-day approaches $135, which it is likely to do in about two to three weeks because it will no longer include any of the late March prices. Within th next month or so, that moving average, downward trendline, and the $135 pivot line will all converge.

With the AI vs. software debate looking like it is turning around and the tremendous support this name has from a defense spend, I went ahead and made a .5u purchase of shares today. If it falls lower, to those mid-$120s, I’ll complete the trade. Otherwise, I’d like to do so as it challenges the $150s and refills this gap again. Maybe we get some momentum with tech earnings. We’ll see.

$AVAV 

I’ve been circling around this name for a while but am just going to keep watching for now. If I were a true believer, accumulating at these levels would make a lot of sense. But I just haven’t done the research to be doing that quite yet.

https://preview.redd.it/u0q80z8iir3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e07f93744e989480b16450b3f1f22d9ff0899d7

The share price has found itself back in line with the short-term moving average (orange line) and we are seeing that same convergence with the downward trendline, the $190ish level, and the short-term moving average. It may be range- and channel-bound here, I really don’t know. This is a new area of the market for me - drones - and my entry would be also linked to my interest in Anduril when they IPO sometime in the near future. I’ll keep watching for now just to see how this dynamic plays out. 

In the meantime, I decided to be more aggressive with $PLTR. That’s fine.

$HDB

Hey, let's get weird. When you look at this name over a 20 year period, you actually see something amazing:

https://preview.redd.it/sv49rv6pir3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d873abdf73937467db8c3ceb6a1007d511a82a7

We’re not quite at COVID-lows, but this is quite the downtrend. So why am I interested? Other than the overall desire to diversify outside of the US, there is a very clean and simple growth case for this bank in India. This is India’s best-of-breed bank, analogous to the role $JPM serves in the US. And India has a lot of people that are starting to bank as they have more complex job opportunities. It’s a very simple thesis. 

After exiting this channel from basically 2017 to COVID and then recovery to now, one has to ask how we got here. This isn’t a technical journey, it’s a narrative. A lot of money is flowing out of India after the country got rich in investment. We can literally see that period of time in the chart!

But rotations happen and sometimes EMs get hit. After being a high-growth premium market, US bond yields have increased and that gives investors a risk-free ~5% return. Then there’s this huge trade happening with memory stocks. 

On top of that, the bank has had some narrative issues. The Chairman resigned in March and there are some reports of funny business (that they are denying) this month. All together, it is not a great look for investors.

Well, that’s when people like us step in, right? As bad as these bloody streets may seem, the name really just returned to the long-term pattern. If the long-term growth story with the middle class in India is what the country is generationally going through, than this would seem to just be a return from the euphoria of speculation. I’m still learning more about this and will continue to watch but I do think the bottom is in and as the market here in the US has become crowded and whacky, I can consider a small position elsewhere while euphoria rotates to America again.

$CAT

Another one I’m just watching for now, as it has moved quickly and become too expensive.

https://preview.redd.it/ixxzptdzir3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebb11c301fc2d3d5d023f5980fb70786e9e1f2b8

I missed this one, as that Golden Cross in July was so obvious. Oh well, it happens, but at this point the SMAs don’t really do anything for us. Look how pretty it has been in this channel (blue) for the past year, with a more recent acceleration into this short-term channel that we can see forming this Spring (green). Things get interesting here because it tested this $910ish level before and retreated. Let’s see what it does now because it would be helpful to see if it has any chance of returning to the blue channel.

I’m guessing it won’t. But if this green channel is where it wants to live now, then I’ll get to learn more about it in this new habitat and buy later with some patience. No doubt, this thing is expensive, coming in at a PEG over 2 and P/E  over 40. I’ll have to scale in slowly as I learn but don’t need to rush.

$ETN

On the other hand, this is one I need to buy this week. Same deal, let’s zoom out super far and establish that uptrend channel.

https://preview.redd.it/y354vps8jr3h1.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=1942dc6a8795f21be3d2f9216f2ff8de9d17f386

Alright, this time the one-year chart has some gaps drawn in.

https://preview.redd.it/0aorhlddjr3h1.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6682c9a37b6b8f23c2d2fae4efabaaae05da05

We can see that it got out of the long-term channel for a bit but behaved itself by filling the gap up that occurred in April (purple box), bouncing off the $378ish pivot, and quickly recovering within the channel. At the same time, it sure does look to me like it plans to fill this other gap (yellow box) now. It is not something that necessarily needs to happen quickly, but the gap and the channel are working hand-in-hand here along with a short-term moving average (orange line) that looks like it is going to serve as a price floor moving forward. That line is about to pop in three weeks when it doesn’t have to factor in the late March prices. As it rises, it just keeps serving as that price floor within the channel and as the gap fills. It all works together.

It will be a .4u purchase. I wasn’t able to make the buy today because I was thinking through when the next buys will be. Depending on how long it takes to fill the yellow gap, it may or may not still be in the long-term upward trend channel. That will basically be what determines the decision - if it is outside of it, then it is misbehaving again and we can wait. If we are still in there, then it is likely to be a safe price. But I see that Golden Cross at the end of March and I don’t want to $CAT this up.

Alright, I’m cracking my knuckles and getting back to charts again. I have nothing to say other than let’s get into it. u/CleanRiver3545 correctly identified $UBER as a poor performer of late. What’s the chart telling us? 

https://preview.redd.it/w1r4jzmczj3h1.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=59866eb15cb1201b72a02d55981e505a9e1fd5a9

Right out of the gate, we can see that the downtrend that started in November is not really showing signs of reversal. The dotted line represents a downward slope of tops while the Death Cross occurred in mid-December. Momentum has been lost and you can sort of see how that downward slope is not that far off from the short-term moving average (orange line). We are roughly 15% below the longer-term moving average (teal line), which is telling because we are 30% below November highs. The correction has occurred.

The name slipped the short-term SMA and this $75ish support level this past week. Why? I don’t know, but it could be because of this reported takeover attempt (Delivery Hero) to expand food delivery in Europe. I noticed that $DASH is down today as well and it turns out they are also trying to take over parts of Delivery Hero’s business (Middle East). OK, now we have some context - the news came out over the weekend and the market is digesting it today. At least now we have some context. Stocks often trade lower when acquisition talks surface because investors immediately start thinking about integration risk, dilution, or margin pressure (see the $NFLX and $WBD debacle). 

This is the definition of SaaS-pocalypse as traders are selling first and asking questions later. Folks will say that this is not a software company and I will vehemently disagree.

But if one had conviction in this name, you would look at this chart and say “hm”. It has consistently fallen and found rest right here in the low $70s. Immediate trader instinct would be to wonder if this is the bottom again and if a position should be initiated or added to here. We can anticipate the longer-term SMA to continue to slide, especially since it will no longer include November prices in their calculations. As that happens, the orange line is going to make some moves as well. It is currently below $75 but will rise above it in about three weeks, when the April rise will be included in the calculation. That rise should continue for a few weeks on that average, but how violently it moves up will be fully dependent on what happens right now since it is below the line again.  

The other thing we see is price pressure. Our downtrend line, short-term moving average, and a pivot level all converge around $75. Sometimes that creates pressure for a pop up, blowing through that downtrend line and using the longer-term average as a bar to pull itself up on. That did not happen, as the past three days have instead taken us back to the lows. 

The pressure did not create a pop, it created a spill.

And it did so without any huge or dramatic increases in trading volume (other than after the report on Feb 4th, more on that in a bit). The short-term moving average, pivot level, and downtrend slope are serving as a ceiling.

I’m not so sure the turnaround that I would have been confident in a few months ago is still on the table and the reasoning is because of a combination of the charts and the story. We can continue to watch the charts and see what the next few days hold. If a recovery is in place, there’s nothing wrong with getting that position closer to $75 if the trade develops upside. But here’s the thing - I don’t see the upside. I don’t see a direct catalyst that could possibly push it up back to the compelling areas above $85 on any short-term basis. That’s a 20ish% rise from here - the gap (blue box) has been filled and is setting up again for a fill again, but it won’t happen quickly.

Why? Because of profitability. On the February earnings call, adjusted EPS came in at $0.71, which missed the $0.78 consensus expectation. For the first time in six or seven quarters in which the name was beating expectations, this was a bad surprise that led to analyst downgrades. Folks aren’t going to pay a premium for a company that isn’t showing the kind of profitable growth that investors want to see. 

Then you factor in a February court case related to violent behavior by drivers - although the $8.5 million amount the company must pay the victim is no chump change, the real problem is that this case sets precedent on literally thousands of similar cases that are still active on the docket.

There are over 3000 of these kinds of cases out there right now (maybe closer to 3500). Let’s be kind and conservative for $UBER and assume they’ll have to make a payout on only ⅓ of these. That’s 1000ish cases. Let’s say those settlements are for ⅓ of the one from February. That’s $2.8 million per case. I know there are more variables and you can debate the thought exercise. But did you do the loose math on that? $2.8 billion.

On May 6, the CEO’s prepared remarks included this quote: “We ended the quarter with $6.1 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.” Their market cap is close to $150 billion, so fine, my little exercise does not automatically create an existential crisis. Markets don’t care about that liability if it was expected or if it changes anything materially. It may not, that’s fair, but I feel like this is at least worth paying attention to when we are trying to figure out the stink on this stock.

Then you factor in today’s announcement that rideshare drivers in Massachusetts have successfully formed the first US union for these gig workers. $UBER settled with the state a few years ago, requiring them to pay over $30/hr, the minimum wage for Massachusetts drivers, in addition to paying $175 million in claims resolutions. 

Then you factor in a slew of insider trading that was reported on May 19. These trades are highly likely to be systemic and part of the compensation package for multiple executives. This is not necessarily bearish and I will say it again - this is likely to be driven by systemic compensation packages. But in the midst of a stock freefall, it isn’t a good look, especially when you see the list of who sold:

• Glen Ceremony, Chief Accounting Officer
• Tony West, Chief Legal Officer 
• Andrew Macdonald, Chief Operating Officer 
• Jill Hazelbaker, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer 
• Balaji Krishnamurthy, Chief Financial Officer

Contrast that with Bill McDermott of $NOW, who personally bought $3 million worth of shares on the open market. In fairness, any time you go down a fillings rabbit hole, you will see executives and board members on the list (in fact, $NOW has had some of the same systemic sales).

It is part of the game but it is something for the bears even if it is nothing to most.

To be fair, there are indirect catalysts that could help $UBER. An end to the war with Iran. Rate cuts from the new Fed, which wouldn't make sense but would be provocative. $CRM reports tomorrow and maybe the software story changes completely. Are any of these things enough to put wind in the sails?

I do not think it will have the momentum to pull that off at least until the next earnings report gives a chance to change the story (both fundamentally and tactically). This is definitely a compelling LEAPS play because $UBER is a best-of-breed business, a great company. They have massive global scale and a technology suite that is compelling. Their network is amazing and if AVs become a thing, I think it will be great for this company. We haven’t spoken about the potential for ad partnerships or new cash generation possibilities. 

But there’s too much noise here right now. Legal challenges. Profitability concerns. No trading momentum. It really doesn’t matter what the chart says. Sure, it could be consolidating and coiling for a rise - I can wait until I see it happening and hop on when there are signs that a meaningful rise is in the cards.

For now? I can deploy cash elsewhere.

I haven’t posted much lately because I’ve been in a midlife crisis (tongue in cheek - I’m fine). It hasn’t been about getting a motorcycle or taking on hobbies or lusting after newness. It has been a huge realization: the technical revolution that I thought I was living through the tail end of is actually just beginning.

Here I was, blissfully thinking that the digital age - the tremendous technological achievements of the last 50 years - was the pinnacle of our advancement. How much better could it get than this? But as I was binging Star Trek: The Next Generation with my kids, something hit me like a ton of bricks. The technology that was outlandish and inconceivable is happening before my eyes and I am taking it for granted. 

https://preview.redd.it/4siuvwmeir2h1.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3574992201b91b217587b1928eecf837c41ffc4f

We can do this now, it’s called FaceTime.

https://preview.redd.it/s3l110wgir2h1.jpg?width=262&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6b5eec96b785dd881594194012e9e2c52ac2759a

We can do this now, it’s called Alexa.

https://preview.redd.it/ede6yyckir2h1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc736105f532d1f9d62ab9a3ddcc61b97cc356f4

We can do this now, they’re called VR glasses.

https://preview.redd.it/ye3ss8inir2h1.jpg?width=360&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b48c41fe8cb456395f4bdfd00983d9fec6fd3671

We can do this now, they’re called Fernando Mendoza.

On and on. And so it hit me - the way I think about investing needs to change .. again.

Let me explain. First I was an index investor. Then I learned how to buy and hold stocks. Then I paid someone to pick those stocks. Then I got mad at them and did it myself. Then I learned how to trim positions and take profits to grow the portfolio. Then I learned technical analysis. Then I learned about CSPs and LEAPs and options. Then .. I’m afraid I got complacent. This market will do that to you. The bull we have been riding makes everyone a winner. Any collection of good companies will yield results.

That’s when it hit me. I just had a collection of good companies. Companies that were doing well, but were they serving specific roles in my portfolio? Was I duplicating when I should have been diversifying emerging themes - was I overweight where I should have been underweight?

My portfolio needs to represent the future, not just be a collection of good companies. 

So I’ve been restructuring in the quiet. Trimming .. trimming .. trimming .. and now eliminating. I used a lot of cash up in the first quarter and I’m ready to scale into positions within economic drivers and with some added focus. Considering GDP growth is so driven by this AI buildout, here we go. I’ll have more to say about all this over the next few weeks, but I needed to get something out to get the ball rolling again.

So here are those drivers .. it is still a work in progress as a few of these are still names I'm on the fence about. But I've been on the fence for however long has it been since I last posted. No more paralysis by analysis, time to get to work and plot entries, this is pretty much set for now with space to add compelling names as we go.

If you want to know the thesis behind the name or something, feel free to drop a question. I'll do my best to chart my purchases over the next few weeks. Otherwise, this is just me journaling and getting back to holding myself accountable.

AI Compute and Platformization
AAPL
AMZN
AVGO
GOOGL
META
MSFT
NVDA
TSM

Automation, Power, and Electrification
APH
CAT
CEG
ETN
GEV
HON
RIO
XOM

Defense and Autonomous Systems
AVAV
BA
LHX
PLTR
RKLB

Frontier Tech
ADBE
CRM
IONQ
NBIS
NOW
PANW

Financial Infrastructure and Capital Markets
AXP
BRK.B
BX
HDB
HOOD
JPM
NU
V

Consumerism
COST
DIS
DLTR
LVMUY
MAR
NFLX
RBLX
ROST
TJX
WMT

Healthcare and Longevity
ABBV
JNJ
LLY
UNH