u/ecotalpx

Recently, market chatter has emerged suggesting that Microsoft (MSFT) could trade near $700 per share by the end of 2027. The speculation appears to have gained traction after reports that Michael Burry bought long-dated Microsoft call options with strike prices in the low $700s, alongside broader talk that 2027 could be a strong year for the company, I don’t really like these kinds of speculative bets, but I can still see why people would make that argument.

At today’s MSFT price around $390, a $700 target means about +79% upside and roughly $5.21T market cap using about 7.445B diluted shares.

Before understanding what the main driver behind MSFT really is, we need to recognize that most of the bull case comes from Azure’s growth, plus Microsoft’s exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic.

There is a clear market example with EchoStar and SpaceX: EchoStar was roughly a $20 stock, but its small SpaceX-related stake helped push the stock toward $100.

MSFT owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on an “as-converted” basis. Microsoft’s latest 10-Q says it has “an investment of approximately 27 percent of OpenAI on an as-converted basis,” accounted for under the equity method. It also says Microsoft committed $13B total and had funded $11.8B as of March 31, 2026.And if we use the similar way, we can obtain:

Date / Period	OpenAI valuation	Change from previous	Implied MSFT stake value at 27%	Extra value per MSFT share
Jan 2023	~$29B	—	~$7.8B	-$17.1/share
Feb 2024	$80B+	+176%	$21.6B+	-$15.2/share
Oct 2024	$157B	+96%	$42.4B	-$12.4/share
July 2025 area	~$300B	+91%	$81.0B	-$7.3/share
Oct 2025	~$500B	+67%	$135.0B	$0/share
Mar 2026	~$852B	+70%	$230.0B	+$12.8/share
Bull case	$1.2T	+41%	$324.0B	+$25.4/share
Bull case	$1.5T	+76%	$405.0B	+$36.3/share
Extreme bull case	$2.0T	+135%	$540.0B	+$54.4/share

The first MSFT bull-case chain is:

OpenAI IPO or valuation moves higher → the market takes it as proof that AI demand is real → investors believe Azure is one of the key infrastructure winners + MSFT hold a lot of OpenAI’s stock→ Azure growth estimates move higher → MSFT revenue and EPS estimates move higher ,MSFT deserves a higher multiple → MSFT stock rises.

 

Now we can talk about Anthropic. Microsoft is also investing heavily in Anthropic, but the structure is different from OpenAI.

At the Nov. 18, 2025, Microsoft/Nvidia/Anthropic deal, Microsoft’s announcement did not clearly disclose Anthropic’s valuation. Microsoft said it would invest up to $5B, Nvidia up to $10B, and Anthropic would purchase $30B of Azure compute capacity.

Based only on simple ownership math, Microsoft’s potential equity stake does not look huge:

$183B valuation → about 2.7%
$350B valuation → about 1.4%
$380B valuation → about 1.3%
$965B valuation → about 0.5%

For Anthropic, the more important bull case is the circular financing / circular demand structure:

Microsoft invests in Anthropic → Anthropic uses that funding to buy Azure compute → Azure demand and backlog look stronger → Microsoft’s AI cloud revenue visibility improves → Anthropic looks stronger because it has both funding and compute access → Anthropic’s valuation can move higher → the market becomes more confident in Microsoft’s AI infrastructure story.

 

If we plug the $700 MSFT target into the valuation table, it actually does not look as crazy as it first sounds.

Scenario	Price	Implied market cap	P/E on FY2027 EPS $19.45	P/E on FY2028 EPS ~$23.32	P/E on FY2029 EPS ~$27.90
July 2025 $4T MSFT	~$537	~$4.0T	~27.6×	~23.0×	~19.2×
$700 target by 2027/12/31	$700	~$5.2T	~36.0×	~30.0×	~25.1×
$700 target by 2028/12/31	$700	~$5.2T	less relevant	~30.0×	~25.1×

So in some ways, Michael Burry’s $700 MSFT call options are conservative.  some traders are more aggressive.  This is not investment advice, and I do not hold MSFT. But is everything really as good as the market expects?

It sounds crazy at first, but it is not completely unreasonable.
Once people realize that $SPCX may not be worth its current valuation on a standalone basis, the next major bull case could be a potential merger with $TSLA. If that ever happened, the combined company could instantly become the largest companies in the world by market cap.
I discussed this with someone and analyzed the logic behind it. The more I think about it, the more it feels possible in some form. That may be one reason why the market is willing to value $SPCX this highly.

Absurd.

This year has made me more and more self-doubtful. So many companies have continued to deliver decent financial reports, yet their stocks still get punished badly. It feels like an absurd market, and it constantly makes me question whether I’m the one who is wrong.
Just like yesterday, I still don’t understand why a mixed report from Nike could lead to a 9% after-hours drop.
Meanwhile, $CRM, $FIG and $ADBE are starting to bounce back too.
Patience is always the key to making money.

People hate $NKE, $LULU, and basically the whole apparel group right now.
But honestly, Nike’s earnings were not that terrible. Not great, but not a disaster either. Revenue and margins were better, partly because tariff pressure came down.
The long-term growth story is still the main concern. Nike still needs to prove the turnaround is real.
But in the short term, with the upcoming season, I don’t think the setup is that bad. If $NKE gets shorted hard tomorrow and the selloff looks exaggerated, maybe deserve to step in as short term trade, but if it is neutral, then no .

$VSH waited until robotics stocks finally started bouncing, then immediately announced a $750M common stock offering.

For a company with only around a $6B market cap, that is a massive dilution event. This timing is brutal for shareholders. 😅

This really makes me tempted to short it.

$TXN looked a bit oversold today, so I added a small starter position after hours. I may add more on Monday if the setup still looks attractive.

Micron’s strong earnings were mostly driven by higher memory prices, not much higher production.
That is good for memory suppliers, but bad for GPU hotel names like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, and SPCX.

These companies already have high costs: electricity, GPUs, debt, and data-center buildout. Now memory costs are also rising.

Apple raising MacBook prices because of higher memory costs confirms the same problem: AI hardware is becoming more expensive.

This is probably not the story Wall Street wants to highlight right now, because many data-center companies still need to raise more capital through debt or note offerings. Rising memory costs make the AI infrastructure story less attractive, since higher input costs could pressure margins and increase financing risk.

It is not surprising to see a 10% drop after this guidance. Considering the lock-up/supply overhang, customer-warrant dilution risk, and weak Q2 margin outlook, CBRS could be very tricky tomorrow. ( or people can be very crazy) A revenue beat alone may not be enough if investors focus on slower near-term acceleration and heavier spending.

$PLTR, $119.50
$NFLX, $72.88
$FOXA, $49.39
$AVAV, $150.63
$CRM, $150.00
$RKLB, $100.20
$LMT, $493.87, China limits buying products from these defense companies
$NOC, $507.34
$SPCX, $154.00
New High:
$CRDO, $302.00
$ALAB, $442.00, Which fund holds this stock? I saw last month that some said $ALAB has a better future than $CRDO. This stock moved from $236 to $442.
$WYFI, $45.28
$MU, $1,220.00, Earnings report on June 24
$DRAM, $81.53
$VICR, $369.40, Robotics
$TXN, $331.40, Analog chips
$AGX, $790.00, Power
$FIX, $2,072.00, Thermal control
Tomorrow:
First earnings report for $CBRS. Be careful of dilution.

This is starting to smell more and more like 1999. We’re going to have a lot more “dark fiber” in the coming years.

Long $NOK — Price target: $16.50.
Long $NN — Price target: $30.00.
Short-term trade: $CLS — Take profits and close the position once it reaches +10%.

The current market is constantly robbing Peter to pay Paul.

$ARM : really crazy , for this price
$CRCL: if it is 100 dollar , the it is too expensive, but $78 ,why not?

Following Cathie Wood’s lead, I added some $CRCL as well.

Honestly, I can’t found any problem of their earning report. For this P/E , and this price. Feel like easy money?

At $205

Revenue: $6.62B, beat expectations of about $6.45B.
Adjusted EPS: $5.96, beat expectations around $5.82–$5.83.
Revenue grew about 13% YoY.
Adobe raised full-year guidance to $26.5B–$26.6B revenue and $24.35–$24.45 adjusted EPS.
AI-first recurring revenue tripled and passed $500M.

Bad / concern parts:
CFO Dan Durn is leaving for Marvell.
This comes after CEO Shantanu Narayen also announced a transition.
Investors still worry AI tools from Canva, Figma, startups, etc. could hurt Adobe’s moat.
Stock dropped around 5–6% after hours despite the beat.

After $SPCX goes public, the market may start rotating into the next major private AI names, especially Anthropic and OpenAI.

Anthropic / Dario Amodei has repeatedly warned that:

• AI may create catastrophic risks.
• AI could be misused for biological, chemical, or nuclear-related threats.
• Advanced AI development may need to be slowed or halted under certain circumstances.
• AI could eliminate a huge share of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment dramatically higher.
• Frontier models may become capable of causing catastrophic harm if not carefully controlled.

But at the same time:

“Our AI is more capable than ever.”
“Our newest model is available now.”
“Businesses should deploy AI across their workflows.”

If AI is truly as dangerous as they claim, why are they racing to build more powerful models?

If AI is not that dangerous, why constantly market the apocalypse?

The contradiction is what bothers me.

Every major AI company wants to make money. That’s fine. Just don’t act like you’re simultaneously selling the future and warning everyone that the future is about to end.

If you’ve seen my previous posts, you know I’ve bought this stock at many different price levels, ranging from $265 all the way down to $184.

My recommendation right now is still no.

The stock is still in its price-discovery and testing phase, which can make holding it a very painful experience. For example, today it jumped 14%, largely because market makers and investment banks appear to be repricing the stock.And short sellers are leaving once they reach the 185 target.

However, the bigger issue is that short interest remains very high. Many funds are still actively shorting it, with some of the latest short positions reportedly established around the $184 level.

Unless you’re running a quantitative or highly disciplined trading strategy, I would not recommend getting involved at this stage. Fighting against aggressive short sellers can be extremely frustrating, even if the long-term story eventually works out.

Just because the stock rallies sharply on a given day doesn’t mean the volatility and downside risks have disappeared.
I sell all of my stocks today, basically make couple hundreds , in 2 weeks, lol….

Several hedge funds seem to be shorting CBRS recently. I do not think this is clearly good or bad, now more retailer knows this stock, and the price is down to $236.

CBRS dropped from about $385 ( don’t know who bought it at $385…..)to $236, around a 40% drop. I bought around $256 because I expected a small rebound, but it did not happen.

My ideal is : CBRS is hard to value right now. It has only released its first report from last year, and it does not have a clear public competitor. Comparing it to Nvidia or other gpu chip company may be too aggressive because CBRS is still much smaller and more speculative.