Using the way back machine website I was able to go back and get the predictions from compass prep for the past 4 years(Class of 23-26). I put them in an excel sheet and had Chat GPT do some data analysis(I really didn't feel like crunching numbers). Anyways, here are the results.

Exact Hit Rate

Compass's "Most Likely" prediction matched the actual cutoff exactly:

65 / 204 times = 31.9%

Average Error

Mean Absolute Error (MAE): 1.06 points

Overestimate vs. Underestimate

Frequency

Result	Count	Percentage
Exact	65	31.9%
Overestimate	64	31.4%
Underestimate	75	36.8%

Accuracy by Year

Class	Exact Accuracy	Avg. Error	Bias
2023	25.5%	1.25	Overestimated by 0.75
2024	37.3%	0.98	Overestimated by 0.51
2025	37.3%	0.78	Underestimated by 0.20
2026	27.5%	1.22	Underestimated by 1.06

Best-Predicted States

Using lowest average error (MAE):

State	Exact Hit Rate	Avg Error
West Virginia	75%	0.25
Missouri	50%	0.50
Wisconsin	50%	0.50
Louisiana	50%	0.50
District of Columbia	75%	0.50

Worst-Predicted States

State	Exact Hit Rate	Avg Error
Oregon	0%	2.00
New Hampshire	0%	1.75
New Mexico	25%	1.75
Montana	0%	1.75
South Dakota	25%	1.75
Nevada	25%	1.75