u/Iodenchi

This is a simple, mostly objective rating system that uses three criteria to forecast future performance:

• Last year’s Win Shares – taken from Basketball Reference
• Projected playing time – shown as % of total minutes so 70% would mean roughly 28 minutes per game. To protect against the prospect of possibly injury affecting the number, the highest any individual player is forecasted is 75% playing time.
• Multiplier based on age/years played – using a multiplier that stat people way more competent than me use (Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, etc) Here are the multiplier settings:
  • Year one – Year two: +40% (freshman to sophomore)
  • Year two – Year three: +15%
  • Year three – Years four/five: +10%
  • For transfers moving up from a non-Power 4 school, the multiplier is set at -20% based on historical data.
  • For Year one players based on 10-year research, Top 20ish players are given a blanket number of Win Shares that look roughly like: 50% playing time = 3 Win Shares. The higher the recruiting ranking, the higher the Win Shares.

Here are the definitions for the columns in the first slide:

• Last year’s Bart Torvik ranking is the first column.
• The next 4 columns are self-explanatory.
• “Min%-“ shows the % of last year’s total minutes that have left.
• Likewise, the next column shows the % of Win Shares that have left.
• “HGT” is the average height in inches of all players projected to play more than 10% of the team’s minutes. Research hints that taller teams, particularly teams that play taller players at the 4 & 5 slots, are better defensively.
• “AGE” is the average year of all players projected to play more than 10% of the minutes – “3” being what we used to refer to as a “Junior”. Teams with a higher number here tend to have less variance.
• “TALENT” is the average Top 100 recruiting ranking of the >10% players. The higher the number, the more top prospects on the roster.
• “Min %” shows the average playing time for the non-freshmen on the roster. Like the “AGE” column, the higher the number, the less variance in the projection.
• “PRPG!” shows the average Win Shares for the non-freshmen. Same variance argument here.
• The “WS+” & “WS-“ show the amount of non-freshman Win Shares returning & leaving the roster.

Since the playing time projections are my best guess, I’ve included each team’s roster showing playing time is included in the slides. My playing time projections are based on things like:

• Coach’s history – Shauna & Dawn have been shown to use very short benches, for example.
• Freshman & Transfer Hype / Position – Freshman bigs rarely play more than 50% of minutes & higher-rated prospects tend to play more. Also, high-profile transfers tend to get more minutes.
• Positional Balance – Teams that are heavy in the backcourt still need to play bigs. I try to balance this out.

Fresh off the coaches/media pre-season poll, I've included the projected Top 20 B1G players by Win Shares for fun. NOTE: Addy Brown in #21...

If you have a case for adjusting this number, please let me know & I’ll adjust the math to see the new totals in the comments here. Speaking of that, I’ll include the results that I got prior to last season in the comments as well.

And yes, I realize the Minnesota number will be controversial… Let's chop it up!

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

Always Queen Levin.

Last year's preview: https://www.reddit.com/r/IowaWbb/comments/1oceqgv/the_sophomores_callie_levin/

Callie’s career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?year=2026&p=Callie%20Levin&t=Iowa

What are some memories you have of Callie's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Callie's absence?

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

We never knew ya, Kenni.

Last year's preview: https://www.reddit.com/r/IowaWbb/comments/1o883dg/the_junior_kennise_johnson/

Kennise’s career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?t=Iowa&year=2026&p=Kennise+Johnson

What are some memories you have of Kennise's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Kennise's absence?

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

The Chosen One chooses Madison.

Last year's preview: https://www.reddit.com/r/IowaWbb/comments/1oeziyg/the_freshmen_addison_deal/

Addie’s career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?year=2026&p=Addison%20Deal&t=Iowa

What are some memories you have of Addie's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Addie's absence?

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

The Italian Stallion rides out of Iowa City.

Last year's preview: https://www.reddit.com/r/IowaWbb/comments/1oarvxr/the_sophomores_teagan_mallegni/

Teagan’s career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?year=2026&p=Teagan%20Mallegni&t=Iowa

What are some memories you have of Teagan's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Teagan's absence?

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

The Double Whirly-Bird heard 'round the World.

Last year's preview: https://www.reddit.com/r/IowaWbb/comments/1oda4h5/the_transfers_emely_rodriguez/

Emely’s career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?year=2026&p=Emely%20Rodriguez&t=Iowa

What are some memories you have of Emely's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Emely's absence?

(with the start of the season coming in about 6 weeks (?!?!), I'll be rolling out tributes to each of the former & current Hawkeyes to get us ready... "Farväl" is farewell in Swedish)

CC's ever-smiling, elementary school teaching Hawkeye Brand Ambassador.

Jada Gyamfi's career advanced stats page from Bart Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/playerstat.php?year=2026&p=Jada%20Gyamfi&t=Iowa

What are some memories you have of Jada's play with the Hawks?

What is the team going to have to replace with Jada's absence?

Per both teams social accounts: Vanderbilt will travel to Sioux City to play Iowa in mid-November this year for a neutral site matchup.

Interesting that they chose to play this game in Sioux City rather than in Sioux Falls at the Sanford Pentagon where both the Hawks men's & women's teams have played in years past.

UPDATE: Per the venue - tickets go on sale Friday 6/5 at 10am CST

Now that the roster is set, how did we think the Hawkeyes do with their roster construction for the upcoming season?

A few months ago just before the start of the portal, I put together a confidently incompetent list of 10 Tenets of Roster Construction - just things I believe to be important when putting a new team on the floor so I wanted to see how the coaching staff matched my "tenets". And say what you want about my tenets of roster construction; at least it's an ethos!

Link to that original post

TENET #1: Be honest & uncompromising when evaluating your own roster - proper retention is of paramount importance

• While the playing time & fresh starts of the other Hawkeye departures were foreseeable, the one true surprise to me of the 5 players who entered the portal was Addie. While not knowing exactly what was negotiated, it's safe to say that the staff decided that Addie's potential production was not worth the price. To let a player who was as highly touted as any freshman in Hawkeye history (including CC) walk was what I would call "honest & uncompromising". APPROVED.

TENET #2: Covet two types of HS recruits: Highest graded recruits & BIGS

• As both highly graded (97 ESPN; 98 24/7) and big at 6'2", McKenna fits this perfectly. Her potential ball handling/shooting at that size is exactly what every team is looking for. APPROVED.

TENET #3: Keep the HS class to 2-3 players maximum with the exception that any talented low maintenance hard commit should be signed

• Came in at 2 freshmen so APPROVED!

TENET #4: Don’t be afraid to spend on a two-way star

• Recent MVP of the USA Basketball 3x3 showcase Dani Carnegie was one of the few two-way stars in the portal. APPROVED!

TENET #5: Focus on predictive performance in the portal

• Arguably the most predictive statistic is effective FG%; efficient scorers tend to stay that way. The two departing players who played the most minutes last year (Hannah & Kylie) had respective eFG% of 53.9% (Hannah) and 40.2% (Kylie). The two incoming players from the portal who match those departing minutes (Dani & Amari) had respective eFG% of 51.8% (Dani) and 47.6% (Amari). Since Dani & Amari bring an increase in shot volume (729 shot attempts for Dani & Amari; 470 for Hannah & Kylie) with this cumulative increase in efficiency, I'd say this is a win. Also, as stated recently, Jan wants the Hawks to play Four Out again this year. In order to successfully play that way, you need guards who can rebound. Last season, there were 4 high-major players at 5'10" or under who had an offense rebound rate above 6 & a defensive rebound rate above 17. Amari Whiting is one of those players. APPROVED.

TENET #6: Find value in players with an elite skill

• Dani, Amari & McKenna don't qualify here - they are not "value" players per se. And from a basketball standpoint, it's difficult to see where the other 3 incoming players qualify here so I'm listing this as INCOMPLETE.

TENET #7: Only take gambles on underused talent that you know

• Jocelyn played only 15% of Georgia's minutes last year. Boogie recruited & offered her while at Georgia Tech. She knows Jocelyn. APPROVED.

TENET #8: Don’t expect Mid-Major transfers to be nearly as productive

• I guess Bria qualifies here but to me, this is more about the rumored transfer that Hawks didn't sign. From all the tea being spilled, Reagan McCowan from Western Illinois looked like this might fit her to a T - an extremely high-usage player who might not produce any near previous levels against the uptick in competition. I think the Hawks dodged a bullet here. APPROVED.

TENET #9: “Soft Skill” players are important – save a space for them

• This is Bria Medina. And from everything I've read, this is an absolute home run get, both from the locker room & the fans. Great story, saying all the right things, new & former teammates ecstatic in their online praise. I think the staff nailed this one. EDIT: I think Amari fits this tenet as well. APPROVED.

TENET #10: Get overseas!

• Välkommen till Iowa City, Ella Strömdahl! APPROVED.

Hitting 9 out of 10 is pretty impressive - what does everyone else think about this roster before Summer Practice starts in mid-June?

Surprised?

Per Talia Goodman of On3

I made a simple projection model for the B1G based on the following methodology:

• Using the "win shares" stats from Her Hoops Stats from last season, or the last played season from injured players - multiply the win shares per playing time % from last season by that player's projected playing time % for the upcoming season.
• Each player gets a win shares % bump for their upcoming class. For instance, there's a 30% bump for freshmen-to-sophomores & 10% bumps for juniors & seniors to be. Those % bumps are based on work by Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, etc.
• Incoming freshmen are given win share values based on playing time & recruiting rankings based on extensive work I did last year on expected freshman values. To wit, top 10 players in the class are typically much more valuable as freshman with value steeply descending from there. Sought after foreign players are treated as having top 10 value - see Fagan & Okeke for USC.
• The "5YrTrd" column indicates potential variance. These include: less than 10 players on the current roster, reliance on freshmen/mid-major transfers, new coach, etc.
  • Green indicates a roster that's basically fully formed
  • Yellow indicates at least one level of variability - less than 10 players, for example
  • Red indicates multiple levels of variability - new coach, lots of transfers and/or freshmen, etc
• In order to solve for potential loss of playing time due to injury, the max % of playing time is capped at 75 or 30 minutes per game. For example, we know that Chat was playing 95% minutes per game last year but she did miss roughly 3 total games of PT so her total minutes % from last year was 77%.
• The first two columns, Min%- & WS%-, show what was lost from last year's team due to graduation & transfer.
• The HGT column shows the average size of the team in inches. So, USC at 73 means that the average USC player is 6'1".
• The AGE column shows the average class that the team's roster is. The higher the number, the more veteran the team is.
• The TALENT column shows the average recruiting ranking for the roster based on ESPN's rankings with 100 being the highest.
• The number in the 5YrTrd column is the average BartTorvik ranking of the last 5 years for the school.
• The final column shows the total projected win shares for the team which roughly correlates to the projected number of wins divorced from other factors like strength of schedule, etc.
• I've also included the Top 25 projected players for next season. Players in RED are high-variance players, meaning they're: freshman / returning from injury / see a major boost in playing time.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, particularly on anticipated playing time.

I plan on posting updates to this a few more times before the season starts, before summer workouts & after summer workouts when rosters are set.

Lemme have it!